Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

polaco

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

The_Conductor

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines

It is Rathmines- its one of the most desirable areas to live in, in the whole country. Even a garden shed in Rathmines would have a queue to look at it........

Blut2

On top of the excellent location its also a 3bedroom, with parking, for 1900e p/m total... not surprising theres a queue around the block.

polaco

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

I live in a house share with two others, late 20s early 30s in leafy Marino, Dublin. We are two professionals working in banking and software development while our third ship mate is a PhD candidate.

Our land lord is some what of a philanthropist already and our rent is a very palatable Euro 500 a month each by four so Euro 2,000 for a four bedroom house half an hour walk from O Connell Street.

Our 4th flatmate is moving out. We put up our reasonable single room on Daft and received maybe only 15 emails. The last time we had a room available in December 2018 I got maybe 50 to 70 mails in 24 hours.

I contacted the land lord who is an accountant and finance director and a very savy gentleman telling him about our travails. He immediately dropped the rent for the property to Euro 1,800 a month.

We managed to get two professionals over for a viewing this evening but haven't had much more interest. I think this shows a dramatic swing in the market.

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

Hubertj

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

I live in a house share with two others, late 20s early 30s in leafy Marino, Dublin. We are two professionals working in banking and software development while our third ship mate is a PhD candidate.

Our land lord is some what of a philanthropist already and our rent is a very palatable Euro 500 a month each by four so Euro 2,000 for a four bedroom house half an hour walk from O Connell Street.

Our 4th flatmate is moving out. We put up our reasonable single room on Daft and received maybe only 15 emails. The last time we had a room available in December 2018 I got maybe 50 to 70 mails in 24 hours.

I contacted the land lord who is an accountant and finance director and a very savy gentleman telling him about our travails. He immediately dropped the rent for the property to Euro 1,800 a month.

We managed to get two professionals over for a viewing this evening but haven't had much more interest. I think this shows a dramatic swing in the market.

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

Given the current scenario i think a lot of people would be nervous moving into a house share with people they don’t know. Marino is a nice place to live though.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

Given the current scenario i think a lot of people would be nervous moving into a house share with people they don’t know. Marino is a nice place to live though.

We have been working from home for three months and are plague free.

Assetbacked

Ozark707 wrote: »

The best source I have come across is this link which is updated on the 1st of every month

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

This has STL's removed I believe so it is the truest barometer I find to gauge available supply for non STL's. I don't think Daft have a filter option to remove 'Weekly' lets which means it is harder to track an accurate number on non STL's on the market.

What this doesn't account for however is the multiple listings under one ad, e.g. Capital docks, so in effect supply is likely to be far higher than what you get in this link.

The number of available rental properties has trebled since the start of the year. That is quite remarkable and with flights being impacted for another 2/3 months it looks like demand won't outpace supply any time soon.

The residential and commercial rental sector is the only exciting part of the Irish property market these days.

WhiteMemento9

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

Have you just arrived in Dublin. It is a three bedroom place in Rathmines?

WhiteMemento9

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

.....

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

These are the areas that you would expect to start seeing the biggest drops. The reason rents and demands soared in these areas was due to the unavailability closer to the city so people were forced to look further afield. The demand further out from the City should fall off a cliff in these areas with the supply having increased so dramatically.

WhiteMemento9

I say that and then see this advertised in D12.

A bedroom in a shared house which is owner-occupied looking for females only at the bargain price of 1100 a month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/house-share/walkinstown/3b-moeran-road-walkinstown-dublin-1167334/

Has the pandemic affected peoples sanity this much?

Assetbacked

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I say that and then see this advertised in D12.

A bedroom in a shared house which is owner-occupied looking for females only at the bargain price of 1100 a month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/house-share/walkinstown/3b-moeran-road-walkinstown-dublin-1167334/

Has the pandemic affected peoples sanity this much?

Wow, that is insanity. 1100 for a bedroom in D12? Slice 40% off that and it would just about be realistic.

WhiteMemento9

Assetbacked wrote: »

Wow, that is insanity. 1100 for a bedroom in D12? Slice 40% off that and it would just about be realistic.

It is obviously an ex-Airbnber that isn't grounded in the new reality just yet.

WhiteMemento9

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I say that and then see this advertised in D12.

A bedroom in a shared house which is owner-occupied looking for females only at the bargain price of 1100 a month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/house-share/walkinstown/3b-moeran-road-walkinstown-dublin-1167334/

Has the pandemic affected peoples sanity this much?

Its been online for over 24 hours and has only 98 views and most of that is probably Boardsies gawping.

To the advertiser, think again my dim witted friend.

Graham

It's definitely not cheap but in fairness that room looks larger than some apartments I've seen.

bo0li5eumx12kp

^^ Yeah that's a sweet looking room.

For 1100 of course it's steep but, looking through daft, jebus - were building standards just that poor in the past?

There are far more dumps than not in the room rental section.

polaco

This another good example house in Crumlin in 1hr went from 1750 to 1950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/crumlin/290-kildare-road-crumlin-dublin-2036657/
I think landlords still very confident they can get big money

Assetbacked

polaco wrote: »

This another good example house in Crumlin in 1hr went from 1750 to 1950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/crumlin/290-kildare-road-crumlin-dublin-2036657/
I think landlords still very confident they can get big money

To be fair it has 3 bedrooms and is very close to the city centre. There's next to nothing on Daft close to the city centre with three beds and being offered for rent of less than €2k.

If the going rate for a room in a shared house was 600/700 we would have a much better rental market!

GocRh

polaco wrote: »

This another good example house in Crumlin in 1hr went from 1750 to 1950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/crumlin/290-kildare-road-crumlin-dublin-2036657/
I think landlords still very confident they can get big money

Fairly normal to see prices changing in daft, I reckon agents do that to put the listing back on the top of the list as adverts are ordered by date of creation or last update.

Hubertj

GocRh wrote: »

Fairly normal to see prices changing in daft, I reckon agents do that to put the listing back on the top of the list as adverts are ordered by date of creation or last update.

Could they be increasing the price based on the number of enquiries received, thinking there is greater demand?

Hubertj

GocRh wrote: »

Fairly normal to see prices changing in daft, I reckon agents do that to put the listing back on the top of the list as adverts are ordered by date of creation or last update.

Could they be increasing the price based on the number of enquiries received, thinking there is greater demand?

TSQ

polaco wrote: »

This another good example house in Crumlin in 1hr went from 1750 to 1950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/crumlin/290-kildare-road-crumlin-dublin-2036657/
I think landlords still very confident they can get big money

Jeezus, youd think people would learn how to take decent photos before listing a place at that price.

polaco

Hubertj wrote: »

Could they be increasing the price based on the number of enquiries received, thinking there is greater demand?

It could be I dont know but he changed price within few minutes.
TBH is Crumlin such good place to live I dont know I am not familiar with that area

Ozark707

polaco wrote: »

It could be I dont know but he changed price within few minutes.
TBH is Crumlin such good place to live I dont know I am not familiar with that area

TBH if the price was changed on the same day I would ignore, that is a regular enough occurrence.

polaco

I think demand is still very strong I am getting some emails like "Please be advised that there are a large number of enquiries for this property. We will be in touch if we need more information, or if a viewing becomes available". or I am not getting respond at all.
Even all AirBnb did help much.

Ozark707

polaco wrote: »

I think demand is still very strong I am getting some emails like "Please be advised that there are a large number of enquiries for this property. We will be in touch if we need more information, or if a viewing becomes available". or I am not getting respond at all.
Even all AirBnb did help much.

Are these at prices pre-Covid or lower than that?

Yellow_Fern

Estella White Greens wrote: »

^^ Yeah that's a sweet looking room.

For 1100 of course it's steep but, looking through daft, jebus - were building standards just that poor in the past?

There are far more dumps than not in the room rental section.

What is your issue with the building standards in the pics?

polaco

Ozark707 wrote: »

Are these at prices pre-Covid or lower than that?

Some prices are bit lower. Number of places steady increasing this good sign I hope.

Ozark707

polaco wrote: »

Some prices are bit lower. Number of places steady increasing this good sign I hope.

Supply has gone through the roof since Covid so it is natural that prices have also come back considerably enough as well. The question is whether this was a temporary increase in supply or not.

polaco

Ozark707 wrote: »

Supply has gone through the roof since Covid so it is natural that prices have also come back considerably enough as well. The question is whether this was a temporary increase in supply or not.

I wonder if next week when we'll get to "new normal" is going to change anything with supply and demand?

The_Conductor

Ozark707 wrote: »

Supply has gone through the roof since Covid so it is natural that prices have also come back considerably enough as well. The question is whether this was a temporary increase in supply or not.

Thats just it though- supply has not 'gone through the roof'.
If you look at the various websites (DAFT etc) there are fewer than a couple of hundred additional units available.
In the context of the over-all market- that is peanuts.

Its going to take a considerable amount of time for things to 'normalise'- the further opening of the economy today is not a 'new normal' by any means.

Until such time as supply side issues are resolved- and they aren't- prices aren't going to move anywhere fast.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats just it though- supply has not 'gone through the roof'.
If you look at the various websites (DAFT etc) there are fewer than a couple of hundred additional units available.
In the context of the over-all market- that is peanuts.

Its going to take a considerable amount of time for things to 'normalise'- the further opening of the economy today is not a 'new normal' by any means.

Until such time as supply side issues are resolved- and they aren't- prices aren't going to move anywhere fast.

It also looks like 3rd level students will have some level of on campus attendance in the next semester so many may decide to look for accommodation in dublin and other cities.

polaco

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats just it though- supply has not 'gone through the roof'.
If you look at the various websites (DAFT etc) there are fewer than a couple of hundred additional units available.
In the context of the over-all market- that is peanuts.

Its going to take a considerable amount of time for things to 'normalise'- the further opening of the economy today is not a 'new normal' by any means.

Until such time as supply side issues are resolved- and they aren't- prices aren't going to move anywhere fast.

I have been checking Daft almost 3 times a day I started 2 weeks ago so I have few searches saved for example houses/apt 2 bed min up to 2000e two weeks ago 437 today 672 and this number slowly increasing. There other thing big LL like Vesta, Ires or Occu they have only one ad for 1bed, 2bed and 3bed but they have number of them available.I think big jump in supply is going to happen once Cherrywood apartments are finished (3000 units) they meant to be ready in Autumn that obviously changed. I agreed with you still low number but defintely better the 3 moths ago.

Ozark707

polaco wrote: »

I have been checking Daft almost 3 times a day I started 2 weeks ago so I have few searches saved for example houses/apt 2 bed min up to 2000e two weeks ago 437 today 672 and this number slowly increasing. There other thing big LL like Vesta, Ires or Occu they have only one ad for 1bed, 2bed and 3bed but they have number of them available.I think big jump in supply is going to happen once Cherrywood apartments are finished (3000 units) they meant to be ready in Autumn that obviously changed. I agreed with you still low number but defintely better the 3 moths ago.

What I would say in addition to what you have said is that probably 3 months ago the asking price was probably what you paid. Now I have heard of several anecdotes of reductions of ~15% on the asking price. So there is not necessarily a need now to wait for a another couple of months to see if prices continue to go down, if there is somewhere you like and is outside your range see if they will negotiate.

polaco

Ozark707 wrote: »

What I would say in addition to what you have said is that probably 3 months ago the asking price was probably what you paid. Now I have heard of several anecdotes of reductions of ~15% on the asking price. So there is not necessarily a need now to wait for a another couple of months to see if prices continue to go down, if there is somewhere you like and is outside your range see if they will negotiate.

Yes I heard the same from agent I have offered 1800 for 2000e cottage but somebody gave 1900.

Blut2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats just it though- supply has not 'gone through the roof'.
If you look at the various websites (DAFT etc) there are fewer than a couple of hundred additional units available.
In the context of the over-all market- that is peanuts.

Its going to take a considerable amount of time for things to 'normalise'- the further opening of the economy today is not a 'new normal' by any means.

Until such time as supply side issues are resolved- and they aren't- prices aren't going to move anywhere fast.

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

Graham

I think there's a difference between supply increasing and several months of supply stacking up as a result of suppressed demand.

Ozark707

Graham wrote: »

I think there's a difference between supply increasing and several months of supply stacking up as a result of suppressed demand.

I would tend to agree with you but the only thing I would say is that even during lockdown people were taking places (I am basing this from what I personally observed when a keenly priced place came along it was let within a couple of weeks).

Blut2

Graham wrote: »

I think there's a difference between supply increasing and several months of supply stacking up as a result of suppressed demand.

That could definitely be a factor, we should know a bit more in a month or twos time now that Ireland is opening back up. But its still pretty disingenuous to claim supply isn't through the roof when we're now sitting at almost 2,000 apartments available (and increasing fast), compared to an average of around 750 over the last 5 years. A circa 300% increase is "through the roof" by any definition and certainly not "peanuts".

Graham

Almost like 3 months worth of supply stacked up together?

No doubt there's almost 3 times the amount of property listed. I genuinely don't think supply has increased much other than a few AirBnBs running for cover.

The immediate question is, has demand been stacking up too?

Ozark707

Graham wrote: »

Almost like 3 months worth of supply stacked up together?

No doubt there's almost 3 times the amount of property listed. I genuinely don't think supply has increased much other than a few AirBnBs running for cover.

The immediate question is, has demand been stacking up too?

I have noticed a very big increase in places coming on for less than say 1600 (so they were not previously Airbnb as some of them seem pretty run down). That would indicate that demand is slipping lower down the market as well. Now that restrictions around viewings are essentially lifted I would imagine someone who is currently paying a lot (>2400 for example) will possibly start looking around. I can see 2k being the new 2.4k at this rate.

LasersGoPewPew

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

Can you link to this website please?

PommieBast

Ozark707 wrote: »

I have noticed a very big increase in places coming on for less than say 1600 (so they were not previously Airbnb as some of them seem pretty run down). That would indicate that demand is slipping lower down the market as well. Now that restrictions around viewings are essentially lifted I would imagine someone who is currently paying a lot (>2400 for example) will possibly start looking around. I can see 2k being the new 2.4k at this rate.

I've seen a few places in my general area listed for €1400 where previously I would expect €1600-1800 but the vast majority of stuff for under €2k is student accommodation.


For contrast six months ago I was paying €1080 so to me all this is hardly a reduction.

Graham

Ozark707 wrote: »

I have noticed a very big increase in places coming on for less than say 1600 (so they were not previously Airbnb as some of them seem pretty run down).

I'd guess (and it would be a complete guess) at least some of the 'less well presented' properties may have been ex-shared/student houses coming to market earlier than usual.

diggerdigger

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

Is that not showing that there is a lower take up of property? It's not really a supply story, as the fundamental supply has not changed (maybe shifted from Airbnb). The change has been that the demand has decreased dramatically. How temporary that is, is anyone's guess.

when all this shakes out, if demand is more permanently diminished, then prices will fall, and new builds will slow, being uneconomical, and then will again create further supply shortage.

We need stable, predictable housing market (even if a little high), and that's getting further away than ever I fear.

frw5

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

Blut2

diggerdigger wrote: »

Is that not showing that there is a lower take up of property? It's not really a supply story, as the fundamental supply has not changed (maybe shifted from Airbnb). The change has been that the demand has decreased dramatically. How temporary that is, is anyone's guess.

when all this shakes out, if demand is more permanently diminished, then prices will fall, and new builds will slow, being uneconomical, and then will again create further supply shortage.

We need stable, predictable housing market (even if a little high), and that's getting further away than ever I fear.

We don't know at this stage - its most likely both, a lower up take of property and an increased supply. There are a lot of apartment blocks coming on-stream over the next few months that started construction in the 'boom time' of the last year or two.

The thing is though, even if the number of/supply of new apartments coming to market hasn't changed at all (which is unlikely), if demand has dropped by 10 or 20% or higher in the medium term then that creates a new equilibrium - with an excess of supply.

And if those demand drop numbers sound high, have a look at this data that was just released today:

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/d9o20Ph.jpg
[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/hXQU4UE.jpg

27.7% of the jobs in Ireland are in retail or hospitality. There are going to be absolutely massive job losses in both of those industries. And they're the peak rental demographic of young or foreign people in their 20s and 30s. This on top of the airbnbs hitting the market, the increasing likelihood of 3rd level students not coming back in September etc.

LasersGoPewPew https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

Appears house prices and rents rose in May.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEBuxVKe3I05g7c-0nIXacnoqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow2NLTATCa_DUw5pahAQ?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiO2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJ0ZS5pZS9uZXdzLzIwMjAvMDYwOS8xMTQ2MjY0LXJlbnQtcHJpY2VzLWRhZnQv0gEfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucnRlLmllL2FtcC8xMTQ2MjY0Lw?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

snowgal

frw5 wrote: »

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

I was wondering this too and trying find info on it but havent found anything yet.....

The_Conductor

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

An increase of 1000 units- of which 950 are apartments and 50 houses.
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April- there are at least 4000-5000 missing units that aren't showing up in any stats.

You can show me a nice graph showing supply has increased from 1,500 units in Feb to 2,500 units in June- but once again- I have to state, this is peanuts when you look at the larger market.

We are not going to see a new 'normal' very possibly until September 2021- I stand over my previous suggestion.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

An increase of 1000 units- of which 950 are apartments and 50 houses.
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April- there are at least 4000-5000 missing units that aren't showing up in any stats.

You can show me a nice graph showing supply has increased from 1,500 units in Feb to 2,500 units in June- but once again- I have to state, this is peanuts when you look at the larger market.

We are not going to see a new 'normal' very possibly until September 2021- I stand over my previous suggestion.

In a city with the population of Dublin (is it 1.4M ish?) 2.5k available units doesn't sound like anywhere near enough for a functioning market.