Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

schmoo2k · 30-04-2020 08:10AM

Arghus wrote: »

Marno21-
I'm not disagreeing with you totally.

But we still have too many instances of daily reported cases of infection for it to be a wise move to loosen restrictions at this point. The potential is still there for a rapid resurgence. The situation is very delicate and could change rapidly.

The disease has a greater foothold in the country than what it had a month ago. A second and more stringent lockdown could easily happen if we move too fast. That isn't just alarmist talk, it's entirely possible.

Personally, if I was King of Ireland, I wouldn't be loosening a damn thing until we had reliable, up to date, data showing us that community transmission was down to a handful of cases - I mean less than twenty per day - and we had a cast iron testing, tracing and isolation system in place. That could take another month, if all went well.

Do I think that's what will happen? No. Political pressure will probably see to that.

Ideally (not realistically) we could loosen all the restrictions for "responsible people". IOW why can't I:
* Go for a long cycle
* Go to the beach
* Go to my holiday home
* Go fly my drone

Assuming that I adhere to the same isolation rules?

Its the difference between us and Sweden - in Sweden they delegate the responsibility to not infect "at risk" folks to the "people" - but here we don't.

(Personally I agree the lockdown is more appropriate for Ireland as whole)

mandrake04 · 30-04-2020 08:15AM

hmmm wrote: »

What screw-ups? With the help of Germany we have massively improved our capacity to test, and are nearing Korean levels of testing per million people. The entire world some countries were scrambling for test kits, swabs, reagents, and there are still some huge supply issues.

I thought I would fix this up for you.

Vicxas · 30-04-2020 08:35AM

So Trump is flying in the face of all medical advice and letting people go back to work from today, madness.

voluntary · 30-04-2020 08:36AM

Dead per 100.000

9GX5F.png

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2020 08:38AM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255763072964313088?s=19

Big enough fall in ICU numbers last night. 103 now in ICU

voluntary · 30-04-2020 08:39AM

and linear, dead per 100.000

Wibbs · 30-04-2020 08:48AM

voluntary wrote: »

and linear, dead per 100.000

Hi V, sorry to butt in but where is that graph page from?

Akrasia · 30-04-2020 08:52AM

In a couple of weeks we’ll have data from the other Europe countries that started to loosen their lockdowns over the last week. I think this is what Leo at al are really interested in.

voluntary · 30-04-2020 08:57AM

Wibbs wrote: »

Hi V, sorry to butt in but where is that graph page from?

sorry, it's the German page which worldometers gets data from:
https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/

voluntary · 30-04-2020 08:58AM

Akrasia wrote: »

In a couple of weeks we’ll have data from the other Europe countries that started to loosen their lockdowns over the last week. I think this is what Leo at al are really interested in.

Germany started loosening the restrictions and the new cases numbers have already started picking up. It could be an anomaly or a new trend.

wadacrack · 30-04-2020 08:59AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255763072964313088?s=19

Big enough fall in ICU numbers last night. 103 now in ICU

Hospital rates spiked up again, that must be a big worry. Half of the deaths in Ireland didn't require ICU, in the nursing homes alot of the time its of no benefit to this patients. Its now not a great gauge of how we are controlling the virus.

laurah591 · 30-04-2020 09:02AM

voluntary wrote: »

and linear, dead per 100.000

Anyone see any reports how Belgiums health system is holding up.... there deaths per million are so high

hmmm · 30-04-2020 09:18AM

laurah591 wrote: »

Anyone see any reports how Belgiums health system is holding up.... there deaths per million are so high

Belgium are counting all deaths in nursing homes as potentially Covid. They are actually doing quite well overall, they just have taken a different route with their statistics.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/why-belgium-has-worst-covid-19-death-rate

It's misleading to compare stats between countries when every country is recording things differently (the UK weren't recording deaths in nursing homes at all until recently).

Tenzor07 · 30-04-2020 09:19AM

laurah591 wrote: »

Anyone see any reports how Belgiums health system is holding up.... there deaths per million are so high

Spoke with someone from Belgium recently, their Lockdown is more severe than in Ireland, Police are stopping 100's of people and issuing €350 fines.
Also when someone leaves the country they have a signed form which says they are not to come back into the country for a period of 14 days...

fatknacker · 30-04-2020 09:20AM

I got tested yesterday and was surprised to see they were only wearing loose tie-on surgical masks and not respirator masks. Particularly as they are close up and shoving wands in orifices causing coughing / spluttering etc

caveat emptor · 30-04-2020 09:32AM

fatknacker wrote: »

I got tested yesterday and was surprised to see they were only wearing loose tie-on surgical masks and not respirator masks. Particularly as they are close up and shoving wands in orifices causing coughing / spluttering etc

Wow might explain some of the 5400 health care workers infected (28%).
This is unacceptable. The problem is two fold. The people doing the test do not really know the danger they are being put in or they know and they are putting themselves on the line. The latter would be admirable if it wasn't for the fact that good intentions or not they are adding to the burden on the health system.

Is there no legal representatives / unions that can fire a shot across the governments bow to say this is illegal. Occupational health exists for a reason. To be clear I'm not advocating this for a claim but to change standards. A huge percentage of our cases are HCW and that has been growing throughout this.

Secondly 48% of cases thus far have been community transmission or possible community transmission. 22.7% have been unknown. That's a huge amount of infections where the source of infection is unknown.

How the hell are people getting this? Why are masks not mandated in public areas. The numbers are very telling and they are not improving. No matter how the semi professional posters on here spin it.

Snow Garden · 30-04-2020 09:46AM

I just spotted the latest deaths by day-of-occurrence graph on RTE.ie

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0430/1135708-coronavirus-restrictions/

(I wouldn't know how to post that deaths-by-date graph here)

The last time I saw this, 7th April was the peak but now it's 12th April. The trend does look good even if there is a lag with the reporting.

munsterlegend · 30-04-2020 09:48AM

hmmm wrote: »

Belgium are counting all deaths in nursing homes as potentially Covid. They are actually doing quite well overall, they just have taken a different route with their statistics.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/why-belgium-has-worst-covid-19-death-rate

It's misleading to compare stats between countries when every country is recording things differently (the UK weren't recording deaths in nursing homes at all until recently).

The U.K. also only count lab confirmed deaths and no probable cases of Covid.

Duke of Url · 30-04-2020 09:52AM

It seems to me that Ireland dont have a plan at all on how to lift restrictions.

Munsterman12 · 30-04-2020 09:58AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

It seems to me that Ireland dont have a plan at all on how to lift restrictions.

They are judging by the numbers, the best way to go

shinzon · 30-04-2020 10:02AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

It seems to me that Ireland dont have a plan at all on how to lift restrictions.

There really is no plan tbh, its just ease the restrictions whenever that might be see what happens same as everyone else is doing bar the US.

Shin

bennyineire · 30-04-2020 10:05AM

Munsterman12 wrote: »

They are judging by the numbers, the best way to go

Maybe so but they need to inform the public what the "plan by numbers" is, at the moment it's " be good and we'll lift restrictions, be not so good and we won't"

We need more information at this stage, people will obey more if they have more information, hopefully tomorrow we will see a plan going forward

hmmm · 30-04-2020 10:08AM

https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-experts-say-recovered-coronavirus-patients-retested-positive-because-dead-virus-parts-1500998

South Korea has announced that they believe the reports of patients being re-infected were incorrect, their tests were picking up dead virus fragments still present in cells.

This is super-important news considering how much has been made of the original reports.

Akabusi · 30-04-2020 10:08AM

Our main plan is to wait and see how other countries get on.

touts · 30-04-2020 10:09AM

Mary Lou, along with the other party leaders, meets Leo and he tells them restrictions won't be lifted on Friday.

Of course she then races onto Sean O'Rourke to make the announcement and prove that she is relevant. Look at her she knows something. Look at her. Look at her. Won't someone please think of the Mary Lou!!!!!

Thank God SF screwed up the number of candidates they ran and didn't get more seats. They are pure amateur hour.

Duke of Url · 30-04-2020 10:10AM

Munsterman12 wrote: »

They are judging by the numbers, the best way to go

But they are not collecting numbers to make accurate decisions.

They have no idea who has COVID19 and who had COVID19 and who recovered.

They only have a count of Cases that the Government allowed to be tested.

Duke of Url · 30-04-2020 10:12AM

Akabusi wrote: »

Our main plan is to wait and see how other countries get on.

This also doesn't make sense unless countries have the same reporting metrics.

Wombatman · 30-04-2020 10:13AM

eagle eye wrote: »

.......make it law to wear a mask when in shops and urban areas...and quarantine anybody coming into the country.

Can't see this happening. Unenforceable to start with. How is mask even defined?

Going from a very, very, low base too. Probably less than 1% wearing masks right now. Most workers, who are currently working, including retail, are not wearing them.

It's like saying it should be against the law not to wash your hands properly.

munsterlegend · 30-04-2020 10:13AM

touts wrote: »

Mary Lou, along with the other party leaders, meets Leo and he tells them restrictions won't be lifted on Friday.

Of course she then races onto Sean O'Rourke to make the announcement and prove that she is relevant. Look at her she knows something. Look at her. Look at her. Won't someone please think of the Mary Lou!!!!!

Thank God SF screwed up the number of candidates they ran and didn't get more seats. They are pure amateur hour.

I am no fan of SF but Leo and Tony more or less said the exact same yesterday. She has provided no extra details as none were given in the meeting.

Azatadine · 30-04-2020 10:15AM

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-experts-say-recovered-coronavirus-patients-retested-positive-because-dead-virus-parts-1500998

South Korea has announced that they believe the reports of patients being re-infected were incorrect, their tests were picking up dead virus fragments still present in cells.

This is super-important news considering how much has been made of the original reports.

Yes. This is a REALLY important finding.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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