Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

wakka12 · 29-04-2020 02:16PM

The number of deaths in the UK with COVID listed on death cert was 21,284 on 17th April. On this date the official death toll which only included hospital deaths was just 13,917.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0428/1135310-uk-covid-19-death-toll/

Assuming the % of unreported deaths remains constant, would put the current UK death toll as of today at over 33,000.

Far higher than France which has counted nursing home deaths. Probably a similar number of unreported deaths in Spain and Italy.

Christy42 · 29-04-2020 02:17PM

Where are there reliable excess deaths data? I have seen newspaper reports on that stat but they never see fit to include small nations such as our own

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 02:17PM

silverharp wrote: »

What do you reckon, mission creep?

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1255443358765535236

That Swedish ICU graph doesn't look a whole lot different to most countries under lockdown including our own. It peaked and is beginning to decline.

quokula · 29-04-2020 02:21PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Where are there reliable excess deaths data? I have seen newspaper reports on that stat but they never see fit to include small nations such as our own

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Ireland is actually suffering below average deaths right now. Presumably the covid-19 deaths are being more than cancelled out by the reduction in road accidents, drinking etc that have come with the lockdown.

This is really the only stat that matters if you want to see how countries are really coping, as the reporting of covid-19 deaths is so unreliable and varies so widely between different jurisdictions.

bekker · 29-04-2020 02:21PM

quokula wrote: »

It's probably something to do with the fact that every single close neighbour of ours (Britain / France / Spain) has suffered vast numbers of excess deaths amongst the highest in the world, while statistics show that we've suffered no excess deaths at all thanks to the responsible actions of our government.

On what do you base that claim?

The only data that could show possibly indicate that would be total deaths Jan-Mar '20 (unpublished by CSO) v Jan-Mar. '19.

On 31st Mar we had ~82 total CoVID-19 reported deaths in total since Feb. (including 11 probables proportionally back distributed).

On 27th Apr we had ~1,145 total CoVID-19 reported deaths, an increase of ~1,063, or nearly 13 times the total on Mar. 31st.

So I'm afraid your claim is just wishful thinking.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-04-2020 02:22PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Deaths and cases way up in Spain this afternoon. Almost 5000 cases and over 450 deaths. Couldnt be because of the eased restrictions already could it?

The Spanish government is going to be extremely nervous by hints of turnaround for what has till now been fairly decent reductions.

Measures can be reintroduced in countries quickly so I wouldn't be worried about it getting out of control in the health system.

Seamai · 29-04-2020 02:23PM

useless wrote: »

anyone have any idea when we are going to see some updated 'recovered' stats?

I know there was a big jump in recovered cases from 77 to over 8,000 last Thursday so maybe they update once a week?

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 02:24PM

quokula wrote: »

It's probably something to do with the fact that every single close neighbour of ours (Britain / France / Spain) has suffered vast numbers of excess deaths amongst the highest in the world, while statistics show that we've suffered no excess deaths at all thanks to the responsible actions of our government.

Do we have a graph or stats to support the suggestion Ireland has no excess deaths?

Our deaths per million from covid19 is similar to Swedens, and they reported the excess of deaths last week was the worst this century. And before anyone says it, yes they include all death locations including nursing homes.

29-04-2020 02:27PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Deaths and cases way up in Spain this afternoon. Almost 5000 cases and over 450 deaths. Couldnt be because of the eased restrictions already could it?

Would suggest its backlog, and when you look at it that ways its not really out of trend as there are intermittent daily spikes. I'd imagine and impact to opening up would not be a major jump from one day to the next, rather a gradual reversal of trend

cameramonkey · 29-04-2020 02:28PM

seamus wrote: »

We'll have capacity for 100,000 tests per week by the third week in May. We'll be up to 10,000 tests capacity per day, by the end of this week.

They tested on average 5924 per day last week. Do you think they will have the capacity to increase that by 4K a day over the next week?

wakka12 · 29-04-2020 02:28PM

quokula wrote: »

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Ireland is actually suffering below average deaths right now. Presumably the covid-19 deaths are being more than cancelled out by the reduction in road accidents, drinking etc that have come with the lockdown.

This is really the only stat that matters if you want to see how countries are really coping, as the reporting of covid-19 deaths is so unreliable and varies so widely between different jurisdictions.

Interesting how there was no excess deaths noted anywhere in Europe until news of the initial outbreak in Northern Italy broken. Then very quickly massive excess death observed all over western Europe

guess it puts the theory that the outbreak was happening months before it was noticed to bed

kg703 · 29-04-2020 02:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

A very very small minority have broken the rules.

Very much disagree with this. A lot of people are easing of over the last couple weeks. A lot of my friends still seeing their families, having them over to their houses and vice versa. My in laws had a family bbq last weekend. My local park I see small groups of mates walking together, kids playing clearly not from same families and on a number of occasions group of people enjoying cans in the sun.

I find it harder to find people who are stringent!

DLR Southside partnership are having a neighbourhood book sharing event tomorrow - adhering to social distancing they say. Not adhering to the fact you are only supposed to leave your house for exercise or to get food / medicine.

What Username Guidelines · 29-04-2020 02:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spanish government is going to be extremely nervous by hints of turnaround for what has till now been fairly decent reductions.

Measures can be reintroduced in countries quickly so I wouldn't be worried about it getting out of control in the health system.

Worldometers are taking the total to include PCR tests (new cases) and Spain's anti-body testing. Antibody positive are going into the known total but could have been active weeks ago.

Today's case total is +2144 If you look at the chart on the first page, green is new cases, blue is antibody cases.

The deaths are worrying all the same, some jump.

timsey tiger · 29-04-2020 02:30PM

froog wrote: »

I wonder have any of the mask brigade here actually worn one? If they did they would know they are not face fit tight, when you breath your droplets are still going all over the place and it offers little to no protection to you from others.

Unless everyone wears full face fitted respirators which is not practical.

Why do doctors wear face masks?

29-04-2020 02:30PM

kg703 wrote: »

I find it harder to find people who are stringent!

That's because they are at home minding their own business

zinfandel · 29-04-2020 02:34PM

I wonder why none of the USA states have checked in yet, they usually start early morning with California and trickle in from then onwards...

29-04-2020 02:36PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Do we have a graph or stats to support the suggestion Ireland has no excess deaths?

Our deaths per million from covid19 is similar to Swedens, and they reported the excess of deaths last week was the worst this century. And before anyone says it, yes they include all death locations including nursing homes.

Linked below. Reporting lower than baseline deaths for Ireland

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

kg703 · 29-04-2020 02:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That's because they are at home minding their own business

I am also at home bar my run in the park! I do have eyes though and do speak to my family and friends. I'm not getting into peoples business or arguing about right or wrong here, its everyones own prerogative.

Just disagreeing with the comment that very few people are 'breaking the rules'

100% compliance would and will not ever happen.

John.Icy · 29-04-2020 02:39PM

quokula wrote: »

But they haven't made a balls of it, by any reliable international metric we're doing incredibly well. Our excess deaths stand at zero. Our rate of testing per capita is 30% higher than Germany. We should be very proud of this. But we also shouldn't try to rush out of lockdown while that risks putting an end to all the good work.

In part thanks to Germany

:D

Wibbs · 29-04-2020 02:40PM

quokula wrote: »

It's probably something to do with the fact that every single close neighbour of ours (Britain / France / Spain) has suffered vast numbers of excess deaths amongst the highest in the world, while statistics show that we've suffered no excess deaths at all thanks to the responsible actions of our government.

Responsible... Jaysus, do you work for them? The main reason we have relatively low deaths at this stage is because of our low population density and fewer Irish people living in apartments and the like.

It had eff all to do with our government and their "responsible actions". Did these "responsible actions" include dragging their heels over Paddy's Day? Did these "responsible actions" include the screwups with testing, with contact tracing? Did these "responsible actions" include misinformation over visting the elderly in homes, or the non risk of asymptomatic spread by one of their so called experts? Did these "responsible actions" include the continuing lack of border checks, or quarantine protocols, when a group of Traveller families can with caravans in tow drive into this country and make their way to Kildare with no checks in the middle of the biggest so called lockdown in Irish history? Did these "responsible actions" include protecting the care homes(then again they've largely ignored them for years, so not a shock). I'm loving their "responsible actions".

Oh and rather than look to countries who screwed up, quite the number who were hit with this before us and should have given us a heads up, maybe look to those countries who did much better than us, because they acted fast and actually responsibly. Greece FFS has far fewer deaths than us and with double the population and higher pop density and a refugees crisis. Ditto for the Czechs. If those nations are fudging their numbers they would have to leave out over two thirds of their covid deaths from their stats to match ours. And that's not adjusted for relative population. Do that and the gap gets ever wider. And that's before Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong.

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 02:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Linked below. Reporting lower than baseline deaths for Ireland

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

Yes, but they are also showing deaths lower than ever in Austria and they have 580 deaths from covid 19.

Looking at that graph it says Irelands death rate is also at a low for the last couple of years. I'm guessing there is something wrong here, eg a delay notifying deaths from Ireland.

Martina1991 · 29-04-2020 02:42PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm after becoming a bit uneasy with how Leo has flipped the whole situation on it's head to blame the ordinary people for the continued spread. If our testing situation was sorted from the beginning we'd have caught cases way earlier and they'd arguably be a lot lower than now. Yet, rather than accept that their promise of 100,000 tests a week is complete bullsh*t, he has decided to blame the public. Where I live, people have been taking this ridiculously seriously, and it is very offputting when we're essentially being told that we're not doing enough. The government needs to accept responsibility here.

The spread of the virus and number of positive cases IS down to the ordinary people, not testing.

Testing identifies cases. It does not, and will not stop the spread of the virus.

If guidelines were adhered to, and healthcare facilities had sufficient PPE, there would be less spread, less cases, less hospitalisations and less deaths.

Everyone has their own personal responsibility. Anyone who ignores the guidelines or spreads the virus is a big problem, and you can't blame the government for that.

cameramonkey wrote: »

They tested on average 5924 per day last week. Do you think they will have the capacity to increase that by 4K a day over the next week?

According to Cillian De Gascun we have a laboratory capacity to perform 10,000 tests a day. That isn't a daily target.

The workload depends on the number of referrals from GPs. The wider criteria will likely cause an increase on the number of referrals, and now we have the capacity in place to meet demand.

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 02:44PM

kg703 wrote: »

DLR Southside partnership are having a neighbourhood book sharing event tomorrow - adhering to social distancing they say. Not adhering to the fact you are only supposed to leave your house for exercise or to get food / medicine.

What's going on here - am I misunderstanding something:

Southside Partnership DLR

We are delighted to facilitate the Ballybrack neighbourhood book sharing event this Thursday morning, April 30 , 10am-12 noon, in the Ballybrack Project Centre, Coolevin. All books are free, sanitised and bound in cling film. Social distancing will be observed. Your safety and health is our concern. Contact Gina Hogan for more information (087) 793 0946

On their facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/pg/sspship/posts/

They have a logo saying Stay Safe Stay at Home !

Wibbs · 29-04-2020 02:46PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What's going on here - am I misunderstanding something:

Southside Partnership DLR

We are delighted to facilitate the Ballybrack neighbourhood book sharing event this Thursday morning, April 30 , 10am-12 noon, in the Ballybrack Project Centre, Coolevin. All books are free, sanitised and bound in cling film. Social distancing will be observed. Your safety and health is our concern. Contact Gina Hogan for more information (087) 793 0946

Jesus. I can't even... Sanitised and bound in cling film. It would be funny if it wasn't so retarded.

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 02:47PM

bekker wrote: »

Unfortunately a lot of joggers and cyclists are making no real attempt to socially distance when coming upon pedestrians.

This is being addressed by Government. All joggers and cyclists are being relegated to local parks where they can huff and puff around in circles all day long!

quokula · 29-04-2020 02:48PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes, but they are also showing deaths lower than ever in Austria and they have 580 deaths from covid 19.

Yes, because on the scale of a country of millions of people, 580 deaths isn't out of the ordinary and is not going to move that scale, particularly if many of them may have been very elderly people some of whom may have otherwise died in a similar time period.

The point of looking at the excess death rate is that people struggle to comprehend what a large or small number is on a national scale, and attempt to gauge it by international comparison, but it is impossible to have a comparison between a country like Ireland which reports every single case or probably case we know about in all settings, and many other countries who only report cases who were hospitalised and tested positive.

The lack of excess deaths show that, relative to all of our closest neighbours who have huge numbers of excess deaths, we are coping very well.

kg703 · 29-04-2020 02:48PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What's going on here - am I misunderstanding something:

Southside Partnership DLR

We are delighted to facilitate the Ballybrack neighbourhood book sharing event this Thursday morning, April 30 , 10am-12 noon, in the Ballybrack Project Centre, Coolevin. All books are free, sanitised and bound in cling film. Social distancing will be observed. Your safety and health is our concern. Contact Gina Hogan for more information (087) 793 0946

On their facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/pg/sspship/posts/

They have a logo saying Stay Safe Stay at Home !

Yeah I only saw it today, was shared by our residents association. A bit bizarre alright.

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 02:49PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Jesus. I can't even... Sanitised and bound in cling film. It would be funny if it wasn't so retarded.

Ahh now hopefully people won't start texting her with their view

Gael23 · 29-04-2020 02:50PM

How many tests are currently being done?

Gynoid · 29-04-2020 02:53PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Jesus. I can't even... Sanitised and bound in cling film. It would be funny if it wasn't so retarded.

Hahaha

summarises my response exactly. And made me laugh.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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