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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #6602
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    They will have done this already and have established the prob. that a monkey exposed to the test viral load will develop the disease.

    Press releases, stating hey we infected a load of monkeys with corona virus, do not go down too well.

    Much better p.r. to gloss over this bit and go with the our vaccine gives monkeys immunity.

    If you read the Irish Times article I posted, it states other monkies were exposed to virus, not innoculated and developed symptoms relating to Covid as a result. Way more information than Business Insider provided. Or read orginal report via NYTimes


  • #6603
    Kivaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test
    :eek:
    Coincidence?
    I knew that the movie that portrayed a virulent holocaust that killed billions of people would have a part in all of this.


  • #6604
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    That vitamin D sounds interesting. Coloured people, older people, obese people has less vitamin D.

    Australia seems to be doing good or better than us with 6731 cases and 84 deaths. And they get the sunshine.

    But what about ourselves in rainy Ireland?


  • #6605
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1255188640348635138?s=20

    Are they allowing for recovered on this?


  • #6606
    Maxpower15
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Maxpower15


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    That vitamin D sounds interesting. Coloured people, older people, obese people has less vitamin D.

    Australia seems to be doing good or better than us with 6731 cases and 84 deaths. And they get the sunshine.

    But what about ourselves in rainy Ireland?

    I only read a report today on India that was very interesting and is baffling to scientists. 1.3 billion people and only 800 deaths 2 months since the first case.


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  • #6607
    2ndcoming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    Deleted User wrote: »

    To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

    Next update Friday

    I'm no statistician, but if the R value was still over 1 would it not be spreading a lot faster than it is? Each of today's 229 would infect 1 more who would infect 1 more who would infect 1 more, and so on.


  • #6608
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,526 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    2ndcoming wrote:
    I'm no statistician, but if the R value was still over 1 would it not be spreading a lot faster than it is?Each of today's 229 would infect 1 more who would infect 1 more who would infect 1 more, and so on.
    We're in semi+lockdown mode and I'd guess 80% of the population are abiding by it. It's much harder to infect people who are trying to socially distance and spending most of their time at home.
    Hopefully it becomes law to wear masks when in shops and urban areas soon and then a couple of weeks later our lockdown can end


  • #6609
    2ndcoming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    eagle eye wrote: »
    We're in semi+lockdown mode and I'd guess 80% of the population are abiding by it. It's much harder to infect people who are trying to socially distance and spending most of their time at home.
    Hopefully it becomes law to wear masks when in shops and urban areas soon and then a couple of weeks later our lockdown can end

    It's far higher than 80% abiding by it, more like 95% or even higher. Going for a walk and keeping 2m away from others is not in breach of the restrictions. I would have thought the R value is more likely to be well under 1 at this point.


  • #6610
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,118 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UK adding other death environments from tomorrow to daily tally including nursing homes.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/nursing-home-and-home-deaths-to-be-added-to-britain-s-daily-toll-1.4240333?mode=amp


  • #6611
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    2ndcoming wrote: »
    It's far higher than 80% abiding by it, more like 95% or even higher. Going for a walk and keeping 2m away from others is not in breach of the restrictions. I would have thought the R value is more likely to be well under 1 at this point.

    Very hard to avoid infecting people you are living with, even with best will in world.


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  • #6612
    cj maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭cj maxx


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    That vitamin D sounds interesting. Coloured people, older people, obese people has less vitamin D.

    Australia seems to be doing good or better than us with 6731 cases and 84 deaths. And they get the sunshine.

    But what about ourselves in rainy Ireland?

    I take vit d. It's supposed to help in MS, 5000iu is the dose per/,day I take. ( From FB and other groups,not peer reviewed).
    Every pharmacy I've gone to is nearly sold out.
    I think vit D is good for your immune system regardless or ailments or viruses


  • #6613
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Would dearly love to know the names of the Cabinet Ministers who are putting their political ambitions above the health of the nation.

    Presumably these 'off the record' briefers are the ones aligned with the orchestrated rumors of popular stirring against the the COVID-19 measures, which a recent survey's finding contradicted.

    Wonder in whose interest they are really acting, hearing the not too faint clink of political donations and favours being called in.


  • #6614
    walshb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 58,521 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I believe the plan is for 'capacity' for 100,000 tests per week but it doesn't necessarily mean it will happen.

    I read somewhere that one option in coming months would be regular testing of healthcare staff to keep an eye on things.

    But they keep going on about it. That tells me they want it..

    To date they have carried out 153,000 in total...

    Yet we are being told 15,000 per day very soon; this being just above 100,000 a week...

    Just seems odd...

    Where and who are all these people...?

    Are these people really there, showing symptoms, being recorded, being put forward for test, and actually going to get tested..


  • #6615
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    That vitamin D sounds interesting. Coloured people, older people, obese people has less vitamin D.

    Australia seems to be doing good or better than us with 6731 cases and 84 deaths. And they get the sunshine.

    But what about ourselves in rainy Ireland?

    We're (aboriginal irish) really really white helps on the vit. D front. Amount of sun exposure for us to build up needed level of vit. D with just arms exposed is measured in minutes.


  • #6616
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I've held back posting updates lately in the hope that additional data around the nursing homes figures would be released. Sadly this has not been the case so all I have to go on are the rolled up totals of nursing homes and general public combined. This is frustrating as there are regular mentions of the rate of infection reproduction (r value) being between 0.5-1 at the moment, but this is not reflected in the numbers being released.

    On the contrary, due to the shift towards mass testing in nursing homes, there were even some spikes in the numbers over the last week. My hope is that as this testing is completed, the numbers start to reflect reality because right now we have 2 sets of data being talked about but only 1 set being released.

    Anyway, to kick off, there were, sadly, 59 new deaths and 229 new cases confirmed today which brings the deaths/cases totals to 1159 & 19877 respectively.

    Todays figure of 229 new cases translates into an r value of 1.012...

    There are different methods of calculating R.

    https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1255206310225874945


  • #6617
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭jackboy


    cj maxx wrote: »
    I take vit d. It's supposed to help in MS, 5000iu is the dose per/,day I take. ( From FB and other groups,not peer reviewed).
    Every pharmacy I've gone to is nearly sold out.
    I think vit D is good for your immune system regardless or ailments or viruses

    5000iu sounds like a massive dose. Is that safe?


  • #6618
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,767 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    That vitamin D sounds interesting. Coloured people, older people, obese people has less vitamin D.

    Australia seems to be doing good or better than us with 6731 cases and 84 deaths. And they get the sunshine.

    But what about ourselves in rainy Ireland?

    Coloured people? Is that you grandad??


  • #6619
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    DevilsHaircut wrote: »
    There are different methods of calculating R.

    Yes I think the Irish guys are using 4 different models. These will have to allow for unreported existing cases and new cases along with the reported cases.


  • #6620
    nc6000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭nc6000


    The just said on Prime Time that the R number is now below one but needs to stay below one for a long period of time.


  • #6621
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Deleted User wrote: »
    To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

    Next update Friday

    Great stuff thanks.

    May I ask what formula and data you use to calculate the R value?


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  • #6622
    poppers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭poppers


    nc6000 wrote: »
    The just said on Prime Time that the R number is now below one but needs to stay below one for a long period of time.

    Did the moddeling guy from maynoth not say it it was between 0.4 and 0.7 last thursday


  • #6623
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    nc6000 wrote: »
    The just said on Prime Time that the R number is now below one but needs to stay below one for a long period of time.

    Sounds like it is not much below 1 then.


  • #6624
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    cj maxx wrote: »
    I take vit d. It's supposed to help in MS, 5000iu is the dose per/,day I take. ( From FB and other groups,not peer reviewed).
    Every pharmacy I've gone to is nearly sold out.
    I think vit D is good for your immune system regardless or ailments or viruses

    I started taking it a few winters back, It does seem that I've been getting less colds and respiratory infections than I used to. I heard a doctor saying the easiest way of remembering how long to take it is to start when the clock goes back in October and take it until the clocks change again in the spring. I had plenty left at the end of last month so given what's going on I continued taking it on days I don't get any bit of sun.


  • #6625
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    poppers wrote: »
    Did the moddeling guy from maynoth not say it it was between 0.4 and 0.7 last thursday


    23rd April
    Professor Nolan said:

    "For the population at large, the growth rate is at zero and the transmission of the virus is effectively suppressed.
    “Our R number is between 0.5 and 0.8. This success emphasises how vital it is to remain vigilant in our behaviours. If the R number moves above one, we are no longer in control of the disease.”

    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/a950be-covid-19-modelling-data-thursday-23-april-2020/


  • #6626
    nc6000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭nc6000


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Sounds like it is not much below 1 then.

    He just pointed out that the R number has come down from 4 or 5 to below 1, wasn't any more specific than that.


  • #6627
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,121 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Sounds like it is not much below 1 then.

    Nothing to do with how far below 1 it is. The value has to remain below one for a period, to be of any consequence.


  • #6628
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,338 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    cj maxx wrote: »
    I take vit d. It's supposed to help in MS, 5000iu is the dose per/,day I take. ( From FB and other groups,not peer reviewed).
    Every pharmacy I've gone to is nearly sold out.
    I think vit D is good for your immune system regardless or ailments or viruses

    I would go a bit lower than 5000 IU.....I've been on 2000 IU a day for all of this winter (just as a general booster for my immune system).


  • #6629
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,338 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Interesting to hear Cillian de Gascun saying on Prime Time he is not a fan of latex gloves or similar for protecting against the virus


  • #6630
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,634 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    UK still trying to present it as having sorted it, hiding the real figures.I expect deaths per day in UK must be 1000 per day.


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  • #6631
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,634 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    USA heading for a 2k death day.


This discussion has been closed.
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