Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Stheno · 28-04-2020 07:38PM

walshb wrote: »

Something that kind of puzzles me..

The plan be testing 100,000 per week.

Where are these people coming from? It’s a serious amount of people, consider gout population is small..

Are there really 100s of 1000s of people walking around with and the symptoms?

And e be if there are, are they all going to come forward to test..?

They said in the briefing they have an aim to go to self referral for tests

I'd like to get a timeframe on when they will roll out antibody testing at this stage that would probably be much more representative of the actual spread in the community

Spencer Brown · 28-04-2020 07:41PM

walshb wrote: »

Something that kind of puzzles me..

The plan be testing 100,000 per week.

Where are these people coming from? It’s a serious amount of people, consider gout population is small..

Are there really 100s of 1000s of people walking around with and the symptoms?

And e be if there are, are they all going to come forward to test..?

I don't understand this either, surely if we need the capacity to test 15k a day then we have failed to control it.

I could understand it if they planned to do regular random testing of the entire population but there's no indication that they are.

speckle · 28-04-2020 07:42PM

And speaking of the early cases on Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-chinese-citizens-in-self-isolation-after-returning-to-ireland-1.4154399?mode=amp

I could never understand why the embassy were informing reporters of the above. Shouldnt it have been the HSE or dept of Health informing us and watching out for the health these people. Or were they linked to embassy staff which we would have no control over?

redarmy · 28-04-2020 07:42PM

Most of the 59 deaths reported today occurred in recent days, but some occurred earlier this month. There were 19 deaths in confirmed cases on 26 April.

is_that_so · 28-04-2020 07:43PM

Spencer Brown wrote: »

I don't understand this either, surely if we need the capacity to test 15k a day then we have failed to control it.

I could understand it if they planned to do regular random testing of the entire population but there's no indication that they are.

If/When it comes back we'll have a proper testing system! Seeing as they are ramping up they can probably scale it down for more normal times.

Pulsating Star · 28-04-2020 07:45PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test

They did in a way, just not side by side.

They said ,iirc, the levels of viral load they exposed the monkeys to had previously been enough to have all monkeys contract C19.

Stheno · 28-04-2020 07:45PM

Spencer Brown wrote: »

I don't understand this either, surely if we need the capacity to test 15k a day then we have failed to control it.

I could understand it if they planned to do regular random testing of the entire population but there's no indication that they are.

I think maybe it's to feed into antibody testing which would be very widespread?

28-04-2020 07:45PM

Stheno wrote: »

They said in the briefing they have an aim to go to self referral for tests

I'd like to get a timeframe on when they will roll out antibody testing at this stage that would probably be much more representative of the actual spread in the community

The antibody tests currently available are totally unreliable as demonstrated on a Claire Byrne last night when she tested negative at a time when Prof Luke O’Neill said she would definitely have antibodies.

kegblag · 28-04-2020 07:46PM

Deleted User wrote: »

RTE’s Katie Hannon was asking hard questions about numbers aimed at for easing restrictions. The doctor couldn’t given a straight answer as it depends, he said, on number of medical staff available to treat people. Or that’s how I read it.

Problem with capacity was explained yesterday.

Back when the second tightening of restrictions around 40 were in ICU, it doubled within a few days.

If a loosening triggered a similar growth now instead we'd be going from 140 to 300 in ICU.

So they want to be well under 100 in ICU before they risk it.

cameramonkey · 28-04-2020 07:46PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

planet of the apes, we welcome our new monkey overlords.

Tony EH · 28-04-2020 07:50PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

planet of the apes, we welcome our new monkey overlords.

Well, you would say that, wouldn't you.

Strazdas · 28-04-2020 07:53PM

walshb wrote: »

Something that kind of puzzles me..

The plan be testing 100,000 per week.

Where are these people coming from? It’s a serious amount of people, consider our population is small..

Are there really 100s of 1000s of people walking around with symptoms?

And even if there are, are they all going to come forward to test..?

I believe the plan is for 'capacity' for 100,000 tests per week but it doesn't necessarily mean it will happen.

I read somewhere that one option in coming months would be regular testing of healthcare staff to keep an eye on things.

28-04-2020 07:53PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test

I am sure they know how to design a drug trial

28-04-2020 07:56PM

walshb wrote: »

Something that kind of puzzles me..

The plan be testing 100,000 per week.

Where are these people coming from? It’s a serious amount of people, consider our population is small..

Are there really 100s of 1000s of people walking around with symptoms?

And even if there are, are they all going to come forward to test..?

Plan for capacity to test100,000 people for week if required. The ability to test everyone who has come in contact with a confirmed case

cameramonkey · 28-04-2020 07:57PM

The HSE will be doing tests on random groups of people to see what the prevalence of the virus is in the wider society.
They are planning this at the moment and some of the spare testing capacity will be used in that way.

28-04-2020 07:58PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Between that and other programmes they seem to have got over 3000 new people, according to Paul Reid.

My partner is a care assistant that works for an agency and is getting less shifts than she ever has. She's looking for more but is being told they're not there

Stheno · 28-04-2020 08:02PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The antibody tests currently available are totally unreliable as demonstrated on a Claire Byrne last night when she tested negative at a time when Prof Luke O’Neill said she would definitely have antibodies.

That's those silly kits

Lab based antibody testing is more accurate where they extract plasma I think to test for antibodies but would probably take a while to set up

WoollyRedHat · 28-04-2020 08:03PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test

Because it would have infringed on their copyright,

is_that_so · 28-04-2020 08:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

My partner is a care assistant that works for an agency and is getting less shifts than she ever has. She's looking for more but is being told they're not there

Yeah, if they are employing more of their own directly it wouldn't surprise me. They are also sending people to other areas.

Spencer Brown · 28-04-2020 08:03PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Well, you would say that, wouldn't you.

Tony is that you?

laurah591 · 28-04-2020 08:04PM

joe_99 wrote: »

Testing is primarily happening in Nursing homes at the moment. Testing everyone, symptoms or not. It is possible that they hit less affected nursing homes one day.

This exactly.... I think they hit all homes with cases first and now homes with no cases and in this cases you would expect low numbers. Have all homes with cases been tested now? does anyone know

I also know that they continue to test in the hospitals as my granny was tested yesterday (admitted for an unrelated ailment)

JanuarySnowstor · 28-04-2020 08:08PM

Was up in Corks CUH a couple of days back with a medical emergency. Spent one night there after several hours in A&E. The reason I'm posting is I was blown away with the level of care, all precautions taken. The ward itself was covid free ( as much as they can tell anyway ) and I was able to remove mask once I got to ward. I feel it's important to share this as I was worried would I have to sleep with my mask on etc. Also what really shocked me was the atmosphere was superb everyone jolly and in good form (considering all going on) It was an experience 100% better than what I thought it would be. Tony Holahan said a few weeks back if you need to go to hospital don't be afraid as the HSE will look after. I didn't fully believe him. I Do Now!! I've experience of all the hospitals in Cork both private and public and this was the best experience in hospital yet from both level of care and atmosphere! So Cork CUH thank you!

Duke of Url · 28-04-2020 08:11PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Was up in Corks CUH a couple of days back with a medical emergency. Spent one night there after several hours in A&E. The reason I'm posting is I was blown away with the level of care, all precautions taken. The ward itself was covid free ( as much as they can tell anyway ) and I was able to remove mask once I got to ward. I feel it's important to share this as I was worried would I have to sleep with my mask on etc. Also what really shocked me was the atmosphere was superb everyone jolly and in good form (considering all going on) It was an experience 100% better than what I thought it would be. Tony Holahan said a few weeks back if you need to go to hospital don't be afraid as the HSE will look after. I didn't fully believe him. I Do Now!! I've experience of all the hospitals in Cork both private and public and this was the best experience in hospital yet from both level of care and atmosphere! So Cork CUH thank you!

I would have thought spending hours in A&E was something from the past during the pandemic. I was led to believe A&E was empty.

WoollyRedHat · 28-04-2020 08:14PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test

Serious answer: this was also covered in IT. First off, an Irishman is leading the Oxford team, hails from Ranelagh.

As to your query, the lab in Montana also had other monkies who were exposed and not innoculated, read more here :

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/coronavirus-irish-scientist-s-team-leaps-ahead-in-race-to-find-a-vaccine-1.4239978?mode=amp

28-04-2020 08:15PM

I've held back posting updates lately in the hope that additional data around the nursing homes figures would be released. Sadly this has not been the case so all I have to go on are the rolled up totals of nursing homes and general public combined. This is frustrating as there are regular mentions of the rate of infection reproduction (r value) being between 0.5-1 at the moment, but this is not reflected in the numbers being released.

On the contrary, due to the shift towards mass testing in nursing homes, there were even some spikes in the numbers over the last week. My hope is that as this testing is completed, the numbers start to reflect reality because right now we have 2 sets of data being talked about but only 1 set being released.

Anyway, to kick off, there were, sadly, 59 new deaths and 229 new cases confirmed today which brings the deaths/cases totals to 1159 & 19877 respectively.

Todays figure of 229 new cases translates into an r value of 1.012.

While a one day rate looks great, its often better to take a larger pool of data to negate the effects of spikes and confirm trends. So the averages over the last 2 weeks are as follows and are all looking good in terms of going in the right direction. We are verging on hitting the peak according to the data.

14 day avg - 1.040
10 day avg - 1.030
7 day avg - 1.031
5 day avg - 1.025
3 day avg - 1.023

This means we are reaching the plateau in terms of growth but we're not quite there yet.

As mentioned, the daily rate for today looks great, and if it keeps going that way over the next few days, we should start to see our daily case numbers following the path of the gray bars below rather than the orange/yellow.

Lastly, the counties breakdown. I spoke before about Cavan standing out as having a particularly high rate of infection per 10k population. Since my last update Cavan has surged ahead with the highest rate of 82 per 10k population. I dug a little deeper and found that over 30% of all the cases for Cavan occurred in the last 7-8 days indicating that the nursing home testing in that county is highlighting some serious problems.

Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Connacht Galway 332 13 258,058 42
Connacht Leitrim 67 21 32,044 20.1
Connacht Mayo 466 36 130,507 23.3
Connacht Roscommon 141 22 64,544 25.3
Connacht Sligo 117 18 65,535 35.5
Leinster Carlow 93 16 56,932 63.4
Leinster Dublin 9,624 71 1,347,359 1,459.20
Leinster Kildare 1147 52 222,504 131
Leinster Kilkenny 233 23 99,232 47.8
Leinster Laois 212 25 84,697 49.3
Leinster Longford 135 33 40,873 37.4
Leinster Louth 640 50 128,884 155.4
Leinster Meath 638 33 195,044 83.2
Leinster Offaly 236 30 77,961 38.9
Leinster Westmeath 448 50 88,770 48.2
Leinster Wexford 162 11 149,722 63.2
Leinster Wicklow 558 39 142,425 70.2
Munster Clare 229 19 118,817 34.4
Munster Cork 1126 21 542,868 72.3
Munster Kerry 288 19 147,707 30.7
Munster Limerick 518 27 194,899 70.8
Munster Tipperary 370 23 159,553 37.2
Munster Waterford 138 12 116,176 62.7
Ulster Cavan 627 82 76,176 39.3
Ulster Donegal 453 28 159,192 32.6
Ulster Monaghan 385 63 61,386 47.3

To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

Next update Friday

timsey tiger · 28-04-2020 08:21PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

planet of the apes, we welcome our new monkey overlords.

You do realise some apes eat monkeys.

speckle · 28-04-2020 08:22PM

Spider man cells and covid. Found this interestingly cool that our body can do this. Jury out on whether its a last ditch to help or hinders recovery.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spider-man-immune-response-may-promote-severe-covid-19/

JanuarySnowstor · 28-04-2020 08:24PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

I would have thought spending hours in A&E was something from the past during the pandemic. I was led to believe A&E was empty.

It was busy over weekend in fact they told me previous 2 nights to me were very busy. I did have to wait for a cat scan and then a bed which of course added time.

bekker · 28-04-2020 08:27PM

speckle wrote: »

wasnt there a strain from a postive test that went online from cork. Then dissapeared from the next strain site. Any idea if they put it back up?

Sorry don't know, only have https://nextstrain.org/ and I find it too slugglish to be useful to me.

timsey tiger · 28-04-2020 08:31PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

why were they not exposed to the virus in a group of maybe twelve monkeys and if the others got sick it would seem a better test

They will have done this already and have established the prob. that a monkey exposed to the test viral load will develop the disease.

Press releases, stating hey we infected a load of monkeys with corona virus, do not go down too well.

Much better p.r. to gloss over this bit and go with the our vaccine gives monkeys immunity.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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