Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

ZX7R · 28-04-2020 06:57PM

polesheep wrote: »

If that's the case then they haven't been telling the truth about hospital capacity. Because based on the availability they claim to have, we haven't put any real pressure on the system.

More to do with the lack of trained.
They have the beds and vents

joe_99 · 28-04-2020 06:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Seems ICU number have actually increased slightly. Now 141 in ICU.

The ICU numbers have been surprisingly sticky around 140/150

SleetAndSnow · 28-04-2020 06:58PM

1126 cases in Cork now up to the 26th, an increase of 1 on the 25th. That is very interesting

Away With The Fairies · 28-04-2020 06:58PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

1 symptom but you must belong to a priority group.

Can't you also be living in a house with people to a priority group?

is_that_so · 28-04-2020 06:58PM

polesheep wrote: »

If that's the case then they haven't been telling the truth about hospital capacity. Because based on the availability they claim to have, we haven't put any real pressure on the system.

It's not about capacity, we were OK there. They maintain daily ICU rates are still too high and just not going down. Apart from one day at about 120 I think it's been largely in the 130-150 range for quite a bit. He's mentioned this two days running as one reason. Admissions also seem be one in out with no drop there either.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-04-2020 06:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Seems ICU number have actually increased slightly. Now 141 in ICU.

There is little basis on which restrictions can be eased in any meaningful way for now. We are just not in that place yet even though there are 229 new cases today, still too many.

bekker · 28-04-2020 06:59PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A startling stat from VM's Gavan Reilly

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255172256835211266

Looks like the virus had arrived in Ireland long before anyone suspected

Not necessarily, old news in public domain , no 'revelation'.

It was widely reported that the case in Cork reported on Feb. 29th. was contract by a patient who had been in hospital and discharged, symptoms became aggravated and was later re-admitted to ICU and tested.

Even a cursory reflection on the time line puts infection between 19th - 24th Feb. based on infection incubation of 2-7 days, allowing longer 14 day incubation and you're back to the 12th.

Remember circumstances towards the end of Feb., transfer time, processing time, notification time, and press release delay time all have to be factored in.

Stheno · 28-04-2020 07:00PM

easypazz wrote: »

Yes that's my take on it. They tested far and wide in care homes, staff etc. and scored a high hit rate.

Now its back to people with 1 symptom so less chance of a positive.

One symptom a a member of a priority group

So e.g. I have been working from home for weeks and only been in close contact with my partner and am not in a priority group

Were I to catch this doing the grocery shopping and have symptoms, it appears I would not qualify for a test

Or have I misunderstood

Fann Linn · 28-04-2020 07:00PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Can't you also be living in a house with people to a priority group?

Not according to Fergal Bowyers tweet 3 pages back:
Health care worker,
In contact with someone who tested positive.
Has one of the illnessess IIRC.

polesheep · 28-04-2020 07:02PM

ZX7R wrote: »

More to do with the lack of trained.
They have the beds and vents

Then they have been disingenuous. When one refers to a 'hospital bed' it includes the staff required. It's not a frame and mattress. ICU beds are no different.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 28-04-2020 07:02PM

poppers wrote: »

Could they have tested a large number of care homes last week results relased over weekend and these are not being done this week???

Perhaps.

As I asked why the wild variation.

I was disappointed the journalists didn't ask.

Fann Linn · 28-04-2020 07:03PM

polesheep wrote: »

Then they have been disingenuous. When one refers to a 'hospital bed' it includes the staff required. It's not a frame and mattress. ICU beds are no different.

73000 answered Ireland's Call.

I'm sure the staff are available,

is_that_so · 28-04-2020 07:04PM

poppers wrote: »

Could they have tested a large number of care homes last week results relased over weekend and these are not being done this week???

They haven't finished in the care homes yet. Still ongoing.

Martina1991 · 28-04-2020 07:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's just luck. You could test 1000 one day and they're all positive and 1000 next day and they're all negative. The numbers just depend on what sample the scientist picks to do first.

It isn't luck. It depends on the cohort of people referred for testing.
The last 2 weeks has targeted testing in nursing homes and resulted in a high number of cases. When we have tested all of those people, the number of cases will fall because you've already tested the places most likely to have positive cases.
If you were to test an asymptomatic group in society you wouldn't get as many cases.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

In 48 hours we go from our highest day of new cases (not including results from German labs to clear backlog) to our lowest day in four weeks.

It could be just luck but I don't believe in luck to that level.

I'm more likely to believe that people in testing centres took Sunday off and that meant the labs were quiet today.

I don't feel that it's acceptable to go from our highest level of activity to our lowest this month in 48 hours without explanation.

The number of swabs that are taken at testing centers depends on the number of people referred from their GP. GPs don't tend to work weekends, at least not full hours. Therefore less referrals, less people called to testing centers.

The labs carrying out Covid testing are far from quiet. I didn't catch the briefing but someone else here said there was just over 40,000 tests done in the last week. That's nearly double the number from last week.

ACitizenErased · 28-04-2020 07:04PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

1126 cases in Cork now up to the 26th, an increase of 1 on the 25th. That is very interesting

I live on the outskirts of Cork City and people are taking it very seriously. Gardai are rampant last few days too.

spookwoman · 28-04-2020 07:04PM

easypazz wrote: »

Yes that's my take on it. They tested far and wide in care homes, staff etc. and scored a high hit rate.

Now its back to people with 1 symptom so less chance of a positive.

Think they are still testing homes. st pats in waterford was swabbed on saturday

keynes · 28-04-2020 07:04PM

Stheno wrote: »

One symptom a a member of a priority group

So e.g. I have been working from home for weeks and only been in close contact with my partner and am not in a priority group

Were I to catch this doing the grocery shopping and have symptoms, it appears I would not qualify for a test

Or have I misunderstood

That is correct, but this means they don't get a sense of what's actually going on outside homes/hospitals. And that is surely a critical question in determining whether they relax restrictions for not

is_that_so · 28-04-2020 07:05PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

73000 answered Ireland's Call.

I'm sure the staff are available,

Between that and other programmes they seem to have got over 3000 new people, according to Paul Reid.

ACitizenErased · 28-04-2020 07:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Between that and other programmes they seem to have got over 3000 new people, according to Paul Reid.

They said in one of the press conferences last week it's the Gardai holding things up right now. Vetting is taking forever.

polesheep · 28-04-2020 07:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not about capacity, we were OK there. They maintain daily ICU rates are still too high and just not going down. Apart from one day at about 120 I think it's been largely in the 130-150 range for quite a bit. He's mentioned this two days running as one reason. Admissions also seem be one in out with no drop there either.

But surely it is about capacity. It's always been about flattening the curve. i.e. ensuring that the health service can cope. Just because the number is steady doesn't mean we can't have a higher steady number. Unless they weren't being honest about the increased capacity.

timsey tiger · 28-04-2020 07:06PM

Stheno wrote: »

One symptom a a member of a priority group

So e.g. I have been working from home for weeks and only been in close contact with my partner and am not in a priority group

Were I to catch this doing the grocery shopping and have symptoms, it appears I would not qualify for a test

Or have I misunderstood

I think if you have symptoms you get a test, however you get a test with fewer symptoms if you are in contact with a confirmed case.

Ficheall · 28-04-2020 07:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's just luck. You could test 1000 one day and they're all positive and 1000 next day and they're all negative. The numbers just depend on what sample the scientist picks to do first.

You do realise the chances of randomly picking 1000 positives one day and 1000 negatives the next day are almost incomprehensibly small, right?

Stheno · 28-04-2020 07:08PM

keynes wrote: »

That is correct, but this means they don't get a sense of what's actually going on outside homes/hospitals. And that is surely a critical question in determining whether they relax restrictions for not

That's what I was thinking

Wont be able to test 100k until May 19th

Logical conclusion to think restrictions remain the same till then?

ACitizenErased · 28-04-2020 07:08PM

Ficheall wrote: »

You do realise the chances of randomly picking 1000 positives one day and 1000 negatives the next day are almost incomprehensibly small, right?

It's an example.

ZX7R · 28-04-2020 07:09PM

polesheep wrote: »

Then they have been disingenuous. When one refers to a 'hospital bed' it includes the staff required. It's not a frame and mattress. ICU beds are no different.

My nephew's wife was one of the final year student nurses rushed through, she is being trained on site for ICU nursing.

polesheep · 28-04-2020 07:11PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

73000 answered Ireland's Call.

I'm sure the staff are available,

Unfortunately not. As Gimli and Legolas said in The Lord of the Rings, "Some have seen too many winters." "And some too few."

Gynoid · 28-04-2020 07:11PM

xtal191 wrote: »

Most people with symptoms will be told to feck off now I'm guessing, whatever happened to test test test

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1255069095680266240

The new criteria contain some elements that I find perplexing. It names symptoms, fair enough, although the list of potential and atypical symptoms increases all the time. Up to 70% hospitalised in New York did not have fever. For example. Other anomalies are listed in this article.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html?__twitter_impression=true

I understand though that symptoms have to be listed - as my postman said to me today, what day do we ever wake up feeling just right!

Priority groups I understand. Vulnerable groups if course. But this - or close contact with a confirmed case. It seems a bit random. Less than 2 metres for 15 minutes equals close contact we are informed. And yet people were getting it off salt shakers. Why 15 minutes? Is the virus a bit lazy to get moving? Also I read the 2 metre thing was based on studies in the 1930s and 1940s that have since been disproven re aerosol projection.
I know we cannot overwhelm testing mechanisms with everybody being tested who has an odd symptom. But I think it is too narrow to function now as best practice for containment of test, trace, isolate.

ACitizenErased · 28-04-2020 07:12PM

6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

owlbethere · 28-04-2020 07:14PM

How are they classifying vulnerable for the new test criteria?

Are we all vulnerable to this? It's a new virus and no one has immunity, except for those who got it and then theres ??? over that.

Its going to be an absolute shambles for the contact tracing to work properly.

pjohnson · 28-04-2020 07:15PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

Well theres already certain thíck ****s already starting an "anti-vax" movement against a vaccine so yeah. Dumb fùcks still gunna be amazing.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments