Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

hmmm · 27-04-2020 04:36PM

Xertz wrote: »

In general, more modern metro networks are very actively ventilated.

I wonder if the NY subway may have played a similar role as its ancient. As is the Paris Métro.

NYC had 20% infected in their recent study, much higher than outlying areas.

The DART and LUAS can be this tight at rush hours. As a society, we can eliminate the rush hour, and I'm convinced we need to force the windows to stay open. Put on a coat and get a vaccine in 18 months.

Xertz · 27-04-2020 04:39PM

The Tube is quite an outlier in terms of design of metro train systems. The trains are just ridiculously tight and the lack of active ventilation may be a big part too.

owlbethere · 27-04-2020 04:44PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Just to clarify, I've spoken many times for many weeks of the need for quarantine because you cannot trust people to do it themselves.
I believe that it should be state monitored and I believe that the person wishing to gain entry to the country should have to pay for it.
I'm aware of multiple cases of people not self-isolating.
I want this virus gone from our country. Social distancing, wearing facemasks and quarantine are how we get this done.

I think it's so important to stamp down hard on this virus. We don't know the long term implications of this virus. It's so new. Say for example, young adults getting infected now, and surviving, will they need lung and organ transplants later on down the line? Will their organs give up? Will the virus lie dormant in the body and re-emerge when stressed? Babies born to survivers - will they be born disabled? The virus is so new.

The spread has to be slowed down. It would be great if we could eliminate it but that's probably doubtful.

27-04-2020 04:44PM

hmmm wrote: »

A good study can indicate patterns e.g. lots of grocery workers becoming infected.

We're not seeing this.

Similarly we're not seeing lots of schoolteachers infected. These results all tell us something, we just need someone smart enough to figure out what that is

I'm very hopeful that we are getting closer to identifying the areas of superspreading. They will have to remain closed, but it will allow other areas to open.

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

27-04-2020 04:45PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

A lot of scientific studies have shown this. Most importantly though, every study, including this one, points out that it does not seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.

My personal view, for what it is/isn't worth, is that if these particles were infecting people in reasonably open environments like supermarkets etc. , as opposed to sy a hospital where the same people are there all day, we'd have a lot more infection than we have.

Plus we would have lots of stories of supermarkets closed due to staff out with infection

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 04:46PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

A lot of scientific studies have shown this. Most importantly though, every study, including this one, points out that it does not seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.

My personal view, for what it is/isn't worth, is that if these particles were infecting people in reasonably open environments like supermarkets etc. , as opposed to sy a hospital where the same people are there all day, we'd have a lot more infection than we have.

They would be people who don't meet the criteria and aren't being tested.

hmmm · 27-04-2020 04:51PM

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

Off sick doesn't mean they all have covid - do you have any more information on this?

Schools are open in other parts of the world, we will be able to learn from their experience.

27-04-2020 04:51PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Just to clarify, I've spoken many times for many weeks of the need for quarantine because you cannot trust people to do it themselves.
I believe that it should be state monitored and I believe that the person wishing to gain entry to the country should have to pay for it.
I'm aware of multiple cases of people not self-isolating.
I want this virus gone from our country. Social distancing, wearing facemasks and quarantine are how we get this done.

I think all things being equal, putting people up in the Radisson or Maldron or wherever is the right thing. European governments however seen to have taken a civil liberties approach, maybe there is something in human rights legislation that prevents mandatory quarantine, i don't know? We have to call out personal responsibility as well though. I think the reason the relaxed approach seen in Sweden, although resulting in an increase in cases and deaths, hasn't been as bad as it could have been is that there is a profound social stigma in disobeying the rules. They have much more relaxed rules than most. But they are being followed.

ZX7R · 27-04-2020 04:53PM

hmmm wrote: »

It seems to me that we are getting to understand transmission dynamics much better now - there have been some really interesting studies released recently.

A crowded indoor place with people talking (or singing) is lethal - think Churches, choirs, pubs (unfortunately) etc. Talking in general has been traced to many of the infections I've read about - the only outdoor infection in a 7000 case Chinese study was due to two people talking. Public transport needs excellent ventilation, open the windows or you're at high risk.

While we don't have the climate for it, I suspect you should be investing in some outdoor heaters if you run a business.

I can see companies that specialize in ventilation systems and installation of them making a foursome

27-04-2020 04:53PM

New Home wrote: »

What I don't get about people wanting to lift the restrictions at this stage "because we're doing so much better" is this: if we were all at risk of a steep surge of infections and of overwhelming the hospitals when the country had only a handful of positive cases, isn't it way more likely that those who haven't yet caught it yet would be at a higher risk of contagion now that there are tens of thousand (could be more) people infected?

The people who have tested positive would still be self isolating (and their close contacts) when restrictions lift

Discodog · 27-04-2020 04:54PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The vast vast majority of people are sticking with the restrictions

They can't be held back by the few who do take the piss

Where's the reward for actually sticking with the restrictions?

And why can't the piss takers be stopped & the law abiding left to get on with life unhindered ?

Gregor Samsa · 27-04-2020 04:56PM

ZX7R wrote: »

I can see companies that specialize in ventilation systems and installation of them making a foursome

The auld foursomes have take a hit with the social distancing. We're down to onesomes most of the time.

ZX7R · 27-04-2020 04:56PM

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

Uk let the virus run riot .
No Tesco Ireland workers reported with

New Home · 27-04-2020 04:56PM

AdamD wrote: »

The people who have tested positive would still be self isolating (and their close contacts) when restrictions lift

And those who haven't been tested, or who tested negative but aren't?

podgeandrodge · 27-04-2020 04:57PM

s1ippy wrote: »

They would be people who don't meet the criteria and aren't being tested.

some of them possibly, yes. Others no.

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

Interesting statistic. From what I can see, that would represent about 15% of their UK staff. Would be great to know their usual absenteeism figures to work out the extra fallout that could be attributable to Covid-19. But if it is Covid related, it's significant, but perhaps not incredibly high given that such staff are in constant all day long contact with other staff/customers all day. Would potentially still suggest that a quick supermarket shop on your own for a few minutes is unlikely to contaminate you.

ZX7R · 27-04-2020 04:57PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

The auld foursomes have take a hit with the social distancing. We're down to onesomes most of the time.

Funny,
Bloddy productive text

Lyle · 27-04-2020 04:59PM

AdamD wrote: »

The people who have tested positive would still be self isolating (and their close contacts) when restrictions lift

But anyone who's asymptomatic and shedding the virus doesn't know they're shedding the virus...

Say you go shopping on the 4th and you pick it up, then back to work on the 6th. You're spreading it then despite not being symptomatic and knowing to self-isolate for a few more days.

27-04-2020 05:00PM

hmmm wrote: »

Off sick doesn't mean they all have covid - do you have any more information on this?

Schools are open in other parts of the world, we will be able to learn from their experience.

Unfortunately the Tesco CEO didn’t have any reasons during their earnings call. No testing for these workers in the UK allowed anyway. I do agree that we cannot draw conclusions about it, (lots of possible reasons) but I was surprised by the numbers.
Agreed about teachers though not sure which countries have schools open and an adequate testing regime?

Seamai · 27-04-2020 05:02PM

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

I wonder how true that is? 41,000 is over 25% of the official UK case total and they are only one supermarket chain albeit probably the largest.
If that figure is correct I doubt they all have COVID-19, I'd say it's a combination of staff who don't want to risk it, chancers who fancied a break and some genuine cases. If 41,000 contracted it there would be at least a couple of thousand deaths in that number, with families claiming that Tesco had put their staff at risk.

What Username Guidelines · 27-04-2020 05:02PM

Italy +1,739 cases, lowest since before lockdown on March 8th

gipi · 27-04-2020 05:02PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Interesting statistic. From what I can see, that would represent about 15% of their UK staff. Would be great to know their usual absenteeism figures to work out the extra fallout that could be attributable to Covid-19. But if it is Covid related, it's significant, but perhaps not incredibly high given that such staff are in constant all day long contact with other staff/customers all day. Would potentially still suggest that a quick supermarket shop on your own for a few minutes is unlikely to contaminate you.

Could be a childcare issue causing the high absentee rate?

is_that_so · 27-04-2020 05:06PM

Lyle wrote: »

But anyone who's asymptomatic and shedding the virus doesn't know they're shedding the virus...

Say you go shopping on the 4th and you pick it up, then back to work on the 6th. You're spreading it then despite not being symptomatic and knowing to self-isolate for a few more days.

Why would you be out on the 4th when you're not supposed to be? Chances of either scenario are a whole lot more reduced now. If someone is shedding now it's likely it came from someone in your household.

KrustyUCC · 27-04-2020 05:08PM

Discodog wrote: »

And why can't the piss takers be stopped & the law abiding left to get on with life unhindered ?

Lack of resources and lack of will on behalf of the guards

Just take Traveller funerals

One law for them and one law for others

Can you imagine an ordinary funeral getting away with far more than 10 people present?
Nope the guards would have broke it up

There was a bunch of 4 kids hanging out outside an estate near me. Garda car passed but did it stop? Nah

It doesn't help either that guards now won't be able to apply the law to people from Northern Ireland

The lockdown is only able to function with buy in and cooperation from the majority

The longer it goes on the more people will flout the restrictions

johnnyskeleton · 27-04-2020 05:11PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19333547/

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjFup3CxYjpAhWmUxUIHUbeAGIQFjADegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0PMmuYZlCqVZ7hEG8cTXqP

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

While they will need to gather more evidence to get a clearer picture of the unfolding situation, these studies are backed up by a large number of reports by healthcare professionals across the world.

The second one, for example, is correspondence in a journal, not a peer reviewed article.

But in any event, none of these links discuss the spread of the virus, so much as the operation of same. So they in no way support your contention that it is likely to become the number 1 cause of death.

27-04-2020 05:12PM

s1ippy wrote: »

They would be people who don't meet the criteria and aren't being tested.

None of them are:
close contacts of a confirmed case

in groups most at risk of severe infection, such as people with ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, active malignancy in last 5 years, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, chronic liver disease and the extremely medically vulnerable as outlined in the guidance on cocooning

people who live with those in the above groups

pregnant women to ensure they are managed safely in hospital

JoChervil · 27-04-2020 05:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t thank that that is going to happen. For a few weeks or small number of months, maybe. But not until such time as we get a vaccine. And especially not across the common travel area. I would absolutely not support such a plan and I think that the government would be insane to do so. There would be no tourism probably until 2022 and all airlines would go under.

More likely is a test based approach. Tests will come before a vaccine. And if you test negative you’ll be able to travel freely

But it can be solved even if antibodies tests are not reliable. At least the threat could be limited significantly.

For example all airports should have cameras, which shows temperature of all arriving people. It is the cheapest solution and I think it will be implemented everywhere aftermath. Then you can do normal tests and keep them quarantined two days, till we know results. And then let them free to visit with an obligatory test after two weeks and if positive all close contacts submitted.

Lyle · 27-04-2020 05:21PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Why would you be out on the 4th when you're not supposed to be? Chances of either scenario are a whole lot more reduced now. If someone is shedding now it's likely it came from someone in your household.

You could be out for any number of reasons, I was just giving a kinda hypothetical example using shopping.

I have, over time, become a bit lost in the figures and terminology but do we not have about 45% (ish) Community Transmission, which is defined as transmission that did not from a confirmed case?

That's still a very high percentage, I know it could be worse but it's still a big unknown variable that is difficult to ignore.

On the household shedding, I'd hope you were right because that's where we need to be at this point of restrictions, but if you look at the community transmission rate, I don't think we're there yet. It's still circulating in people who have to leave their homes for work or other reasons (as well as those leaving their homes who don't), in community settings outside of people's homes.

Gynoid · 27-04-2020 05:22PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

None of them are:
close contacts of a confirmed case

in groups most at risk of severe infection, such as people with ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, active malignancy in last 5 years, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, chronic liver disease and the extremely medically vulnerable as outlined in the guidance on cocooning

people who live with those in the above groups

pregnant women to ensure they are managed safely in hospital

Hypertension - 30 to 40% of all adults in Ireland, a lot of it undiagnosed
Diabetes - 10 to 15% Irish people
Lung disease - does asthma count? - 15 to 20%
Over 65 - 13%
People who live with the above - a blooming lot

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2020 05:22PM

Italy reports 1,739 new cases of coronavirus and 333 new deaths.

Total of 199,414 cases and 26,977 deaths.

joe_99 · 27-04-2020 05:24PM

eagle eye wrote: »

What about Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch?

Dublin is a huge European hub with up to 100k arrivals each day on hundreds of flights from European hot spots. We have an unmanned land border with a European hotspot. Ferry traffic from Europe etc etc. We are not the same as NZ.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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