Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Gregor Samsa · 27-04-2020 12:12PM

owlbethere wrote: »

It's time Tony and the health team throws this east, south, west nonsense aside and start narrowing it down to towns and villages. Maybe it will encourage the guideline breakers to take this more seriously. That this could hit any town or village.

Yeah, I thought on April 16th when the HSE released this map:

EVtMonPWsAYj08k?format=png&name=small

that they were going to finally start getting more granular, but they didn't release any updates since then. In fact, I can't find the map itself on the HSE site - it's just on news reports (this instance is from George Lee's twitter).

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 12:13PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the virus is one where re-infection is common it will become something that we have to live with and return to a degree of normality. Life cannot continue as we are now indefinitely
The message from the WHO was we don't know enough to infer immunity yet so don't be putting all our hope in immunity passport. The likelihood is that most people who have had this will be partially or fully immune, and that those who have had mild illness will have no significant long term impacts.
There is no evidence that there is widespread reinfection anywhere yet. What evidence there is does not really distinguish between re-activation and re-infection, meaning the may actually be zero cases of re-infection

I corrected your sentence to reflect the reality of the emerging situation. It does not fill me with confidence to hear that after going through 40 days of hell, people have apparently recovered and then become quickly and severely unwell when their immune system is already shot from fighting the virus.

Your "no significant impact" assertions are as likely at this point as the alternative.. My guess (based on peer-reviewed studies I've been reading) is that Covid-19 will become the leading cause of death globally over the course of the next few years, significantly reducing our quality of life due to the fact that it can rapidly mutate, changing characteristics like its infectivity level, symptoms and severity for the patient.

I understand if this is an inconvenient idea for some people, but I'm not willing to gamble with the lives of those I love, so we're taking no chances with this.

In a free society, the "end the lockdown" brigade should be given every opportunity to sacrifice themselves to the cause, except that this will flood the health system and cause much more death than just being responsible and having a modicum of self-preservation in the face of the unknown. Is your bloody haircut worth dying horribly down the line for?

Xertz · 27-04-2020 12:19PM

owlbethere wrote: »

It's time Tony and the health team throws this east, south, west nonsense aside and start narrowing it down to towns and villages. Maybe it will encourage the guideline breakers to take this more seriously. That this could hit any town or village.

Earlier on it may have made sense for patient confidentially, but with large numbers of cases, that is gone really.

Gregor Samsa · 27-04-2020 12:19PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I'm just after thinking of another consequence of this whole entire mess.

How many young adults here planned for their deaths or a burial slot? Not many I would imagine. If the virus is allowed rip through society it will leave many surviving people with debt that they didn't plan for paying off funeral directors.

There's an Exceptional Needs Payment that can be applied for to help cover funeral costs if people find themselves in that situation.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/supplementary_welfare_schemes/exceptional_needs_payments.html

timsey tiger · 27-04-2020 12:24PM

begbysback wrote: »

Did he verify the source, sounds ridiculous, it’s like something a lockdown merchant would send in.

Do you think that people, don't injure themselves when drunk or are not more likely to injure others or self harm or suffer from alcohol poisoning?

Do you think that medical staff are not regularly attacked in hospitals by drunk patients or drunk people accompanying patients?

Or is a case of no peer revied study presented, so it doesn't happen.

I guess by your user name that you don't have much of a problem with random acts of unprovoked violence.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 12:25PM

Spain reports 9570 new cases this morning. I wonder if a lot of them are from the antibody tests being added. Otherwise its a bit of an alarming and random increase

Gregor Samsa · 27-04-2020 12:28PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

I guess by your user name that you don't have much of a problem with random acts of unprovoked violence.

I think that's an appalling slur to make against someone.

Are you saying that because of your username, people should assume that you're actually a tiger? Do you think that I've actually woken up as an insect this morning?

is_that_so · 27-04-2020 12:29PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's not going to wash really

You can't get more complicance out of those already sticking to the restrictions

Only so long you can keep saying we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, hospital cases down, ICU cases down, R0 number below 1 but lads it's not good enough

Here's another, 2,3,4 weeks

Then repeat

The current agitation is down to a rumour nobody can read and secondly the very reasonable conclusion that the plan will be less than useless if it does not at least have something of a clear timeline. I don't think anyone assumes that all dates will be agreed but if it's going to be largely filled with wishy washy "appropriate" times then it would really be best to announce this evening that we will have a further 1-2 weeks rather than string people along with what is effectively no plan.

walshb · 27-04-2020 12:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Over 70s are allowed to leave house already just advised not to ,

I know this....

But more a lessening of the wording cocooning......semantics mostly.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 27-04-2020 12:32PM

s1ippy wrote: »

I understand if this is an inconvenient idea for some people, but I'm not willing to gamble with the lives of those I love, so we're taking no chances with this.

In a free society, the "end the lockdown" brigade should be given every opportunity to sacrifice themselves to the cause, except that this will flood the health system and cause much more death than just being responsible and having a modicum of self-preservation in the face of the unknown. Is your bloody haircut worth dying horribly down the line for?

If the "end the lockdown" brigade are so eager to get back out there, why don't we use them as guinea pigs to test the virus?

We could designate some factories/workplaces and pubs restaurants etc for herd immunity trials? Let these eager beavers get the ball rolling, while the rest of us more cautious individuals sit back and see what happens?

Just keep them isolated from the rest of us, but allow them to experiment with living a semi-normal existence for a while? I'm sure these brave souls would jump at this opportunity... sure you could even handsomely compensate them for their great national service!

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 12:32PM

Similar to Singapore, Qatar is experiencing an explosion of cases amongst the migrant working class.

9000 new cases in the last two weeks, total 11,000 now
Singapore has also reported over 12000 new cases in the last 2 weeks

What is most shocking is that Qatar has only reported 10 deaths, Singapore just 12 deaths

Despite the media hype whenever a young or healthy person dies these figures from these countries go to show just how little risk of death there is from COVID for young healthy people

johnnyskeleton · 27-04-2020 12:34PM

s1ippy wrote: »

Your "no significant impact" assertions are as likely at this point as the alternative.. My guess (based on peer-reviewed studies I've been reading) is that Covid-19 will become the leading cause of death globally over the course of the next few years, significantly reducing our quality of life due to the fact that it can rapidly mutate, changing characteristics like its infectivity level, symptoms and severity for the patient.

Do you have a link to these peer reviewed studies? It's just that it can take months or years for medical articles to be peer reviewed, and most people who are capable of peer review are busy working on their own projects, so it's quite surprising that they could come out with such this quickly, and if they did, it is presumably based on information that was available last January when the study itself was done. I also find it strange that any article which makes predictions as to the future conduct of a disease would pass peer review at all.

Or are you just making a vague assertion to support your view?

The current leading cause of death is heart disease causing 8-10 million deaths annually, and the leading infectuous disease is (I think) TB, causing approximately 1-1.5m deaths per year. Are you predicting that Covid will cause more deaths than them, or that the rates of e.g. heart disease, will go down as a result of restrictions etc?

Seamai · 27-04-2020 12:36PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Spain reports 9570 new cases this morning. I wonder if a lot of them are from the antibody tests being added. Otherwise its a bit of an alarming and random increase

It's their biggest daily jump since the start of the outbreak.

polesheep · 27-04-2020 12:42PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Am I right in saying the Chinese can test vaccines on monkeys, which are 99.9% genetically identical to humans... but in the west, we are only able to test on mice and rats?

This could be part of the reason why the Chinese are confident of creating the vaccine faster than everyone else, if true?

The leap from animal trials to human, is surely less complicated when going from a monkey rather a mouse/rat...

Western experts do not think you can safely produce a vaccine in the timeframe that the Chinese are suggesting. This is why I was referring to quality controls.

Nope, you are not right. Genetically and biologically, mice very closely resemble humans. Only particular pure bred strains of mice are used and they provide a very accurate correlation with humans.

Gregor Samsa · 27-04-2020 12:43PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Spain reports 9570 new cases this morning. I wonder if a lot of them are from the antibody tests being added. Otherwise its a bit of an alarming and random increase

Where did you see that number?

El País are reporting 1,831 new infections in Spain this morning.

There were 1,831 new infections, although this figure only counts cases confirmed through PCR tests, which identify people with an active infection at the time of testing. Since Sunday, the government has only reported infections confirmed via this method, and not serological tests, which measure antibodies in the blood.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-04-27/daily-coronavirus-deaths-in-spain-rise-to-331-as-recoveries-exceed-100000.html

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 12:43PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

you could even handsomely compensate them for their great national service!

€1m for their recklessness if they survive for 5 years!

Will this be the new government solidarity bond?!

Kermit.de.frog · 27-04-2020 12:44PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Spain reports 9570 new cases this morning. I wonder if a lot of them are from the antibody tests being added. Otherwise its a bit of an alarming and random increase

That's their highest increase in new cases so far. Previous was 8,200 way back around mid to late March.

Deaths are broadly going in the right direction though.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 12:44PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Where did you see that number?

El País are reporting 1,831 new infections this morning.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-04-27/daily-coronavirus-deaths-in-spain-rise-to-331-as-recoveries-exceed-100000.html

Worldometers

I assume woldometers just added a lag of cases or antibody tests then if that news report is saying a different figure for new cases today in Spain

polesheep · 27-04-2020 12:47PM

s1ippy wrote: »

I corrected your sentence to reflect the reality of the emerging situation. It does not fill me with confidence to hear that after going through 40 days of hell, people have apparently recovered and then become quickly and severely unwell when their immune system is already shot from fighting the virus.

Your "no significant impact" assertions are as likely at this point as the alternative.. My guess (based on peer-reviewed studies I've been reading) is that Covid-19 will become the leading cause of death globally over the course of the next few years, significantly reducing our quality of life due to the fact that it can rapidly mutate, changing characteristics like its infectivity level, symptoms and severity for the patient.

I understand if this is an inconvenient idea for some people, but I'm not willing to gamble with the lives of those I love, so we're taking no chances with this.

In a free society, the "end the lockdown" brigade should be given every opportunity to sacrifice themselves to the cause, except that this will flood the health system and cause much more death than just being responsible and having a modicum of self-preservation in the face of the unknown. Is your bloody haircut worth dying horribly down the line for?

There has not been sufficient time for proper peer reviewed articles on Covid-19, so your guess is just that, a guess.

Nermal · 27-04-2020 12:51PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

If the "end the lockdown" brigade are so eager to get back out there, why don't we use them as guinea pigs to test the virus?

We could designate some factories/workplaces and pubs restaurants etc for herd immunity trials? Let these eager beavers get the ball rolling, while the rest of us more cautious individuals sit back and see what happens?

Just keep them isolated from the rest of us, but allow them to experiment with living a semi-normal existence for a while? I'm sure these brave souls would jump at this opportunity... sure you could even handsomely compensate them for their great national service!

Where do I sign?

growleaves · 27-04-2020 12:54PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

If the "end the lockdown" brigade are so eager to get back out there, why don't we use them as guinea pigs to test the virus?

We could designate some factories/workplaces and pubs restaurants etc for herd immunity trials? Let these eager beavers get the ball rolling, while the rest of us more cautious individuals sit back and see what happens?

Just keep them isolated from the rest of us, but allow them to experiment with living a semi-normal existence for a while? I'm sure these brave souls would jump at this opportunity... sure you could even handsomely compensate them for their great national service!

Sounds great. I'll take the handsome compensation.

You do now that we're all going to get it? The plan was never to hide in perpetuity for a vaccine, just to delay getting it in case ICU facilities became overwhelmed.

Not everyone is living in fear of entering a restaurant or a workplace.

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 12:55PM

polesheep wrote: »

There has not been sufficient time for proper peer reviewed articles on Covid-19, so your guess is just that, a guess.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19333547/

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjFup3CxYjpAhWmUxUIHUbeAGIQFjADegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0PMmuYZlCqVZ7hEG8cTXqP

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

While they will need to gather more evidence to get a clearer picture of the unfolding situation, these studies are backed up by a large number of reports by healthcare professionals across the world.

polesheep · 27-04-2020 01:00PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19333547/

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjFup3CxYjpAhWmUxUIHUbeAGIQFjADegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0PMmuYZlCqVZ7hEG8cTXqP

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

While they will need to gather more evidence to get a clearer picture of the unfolding situation, these studies are backed up by a large number of reports by healthcare professionals across the world.

You stated peer reviewed.

Gynoid · 27-04-2020 01:01PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Worldometers

I assume woldometers just added a lag of cases or antibody tests then if that news report is saying a different figure for new cases today in Spain

Or maybe it is the loosening of restrictions that happened a couple of weeks ago with building sites and factories back to work? Deaths lag case increases anyway. Don't know. One to watch. Could be other explanations.

I hope someone is looking very closely at the numbers and consequences in countries that open up. I imagine there are people doing that and objectively. Hopefully decisions will be made on sensible, empirical, science-based grounds that take into account the wider public health implications, rather than being pushed because of the loud persistent noises from people bored out of their trees, or gagging to be making money, or hating being at home with the missus, or annoyed with their kids, or people who have not had a ride in 5 weeks. Here's hoping.

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2020 01:02PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Worldometers

I assume woldometers just added a lag of cases or antibody tests then if that news report is saying a different figure for new cases today in Spain

Yeah not sure where they're getting that number from. Spanish health ministry said this morning its 1831 confirmed with PCR tests

kwestfan08 · 27-04-2020 01:04PM

The lockdown we have can't hold much longer. People by and large have been adhering to the restrictions and are getting fed up.

A week longer after May 5th would be my guess as to the maximum people would take before they start properly flouting the rules and start meeting up again.

SleetAndSnow · 27-04-2020 01:04PM

Worldometers have lowered spains number to 2793 new cases now

New Home · 27-04-2020 01:06PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

If the "end the lockdown" brigade are so eager to get back out there, why don't we use them as guinea pigs to test the virus?

We could designate some factories/workplaces and pubs restaurants etc for herd immunity trials? Let these eager beavers get the ball rolling, while the rest of us more cautious individuals sit back and see what happens?

Just keep them isolated from the rest of us, but allow them to experiment with living a semi-normal existence for a while? I'm sure these brave souls would jump at this opportunity... sure you could even handsomely compensate them for their great national service!

Can these volunteers be kept well away from everyone else who's still isolating (e.g., not have them go home if they're likely going to get in contact with someone who's isolating)? No, I guess not... I don't think it's going to work then...

mandrake04 · 27-04-2020 01:07PM

Xertz wrote: »

The number of tests per capita being carried out is extremely high relative to what’s been achieved in similar countries and rolling out capacity isn’t easy.

Thanks to the Germans who done about 40% of them, pity they sat around for 2-3 weeks which make the ‘high’ numbers kind of irrelevant.

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 01:09PM

polesheep wrote: »

You stated peer reviewed.

Those are from the following peer-reviewed publications:
National Journal of Medicine
Nature
Journal of Cellular and Molecular Immunology

The studies give a picture of what we know so far. They and I agree that further research is necessary before we can make any firm judgements. My decision having examined the available data is to wait for more information and stay out of society for as long as is possible and necessary in order to preserve the safety of myself and my loved ones.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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