Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 06:02AM

I know it's difficult to gauge death rate because of recovery lag etc, but if (worldometers) 197297 have died out of a total 2831513 identified cases worldwide, and even assuming all of the currently infected recover, which they won't, that gives a 7% death rate.
That's higher than most estimates I've seen touted here.

I realise there are unidentified cases, and some presumed deaths will be incorrect. There are also many countries not counting all their deaths, as is mentioned every time someone suggests Ireland is not doing well.

But ignoring the deaths that have not been counted, and ignoring those of the 1.8 million currently infected who will die, that still gives a death rate of 7% of identified cases. How many times greater is the number of recovered undiagnosed cases than diagnosed ones likely to be?

25-04-2020 06:21AM

I reckon 10x-25x.

patnor1011 · 25-04-2020 06:54AM

US2 wrote: »

Off to work now, 6am till 6PM 12 long hours of hard work. Hope I'll get a clap. #frontline

I'll actually be working hard in a factory not twiddling my thumbs in an empty ward. Still clap for me tho

Same here. Wife too. Nothing changed for us except having to work more for the same money which are marginally more than government virus handout while hearing quips "you should be happy to still have job".
Guess some of us great unwashed have to work to keep people who advocate permanent "total lockdown" as comfortable as they can be in these hard times.

P.S. Did not get any clap so far and do not expect one either.

patnor1011 · 25-04-2020 06:57AM

Ficheall wrote: »

I know it's difficult to gauge death rate because of recovery lag etc, but if (worldometers) 197297 have died out of a total 2831513 identified cases worldwide, and even assuming all of the currently infected recover, which they won't, that gives a 7% death rate.
That's higher than most estimates I've seen touted here.

I realise there are unidentified cases, and some presumed deaths will be incorrect. There are also many countries not counting all their deaths, as is mentioned every time someone suggests Ireland is not doing well.

But ignoring the deaths that have not been counted, and ignoring those of the 1.8 million currently infected who will die, that still gives a death rate of 7% of identified cases. How many times greater is the number of recovered undiagnosed cases than diagnosed ones likely to be?

Seriously? So getting positive results means you are going to die?
To be honest you are actually right, every single one of them will die at some point in future. You too. It may not be from chinese flu though.

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 07:13AM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Seriously? So getting positive results means you are going to die?
To be honest you are actually right, every single one of them will die at some point in future. You too. It may not be from chinese flu though.

What? I said "those of"

Gynoid · 25-04-2020 07:51AM

Belgium is working out a plan to lift restrictions. It involves masks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52421723

"The first businesses to open will be fabric shops on 4 May in order to help people comply with new regulations requiring all Belgians aged 12 or over to wear masks on public transport. Other shops will reopen a week later."

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 07:55AM

Gynoid wrote: »

Belgium is working out a plan to lift restrictions. It involves masks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52421723

"The first businesses to open will be fabric shops on 4 May in order to help people comply with new regulations requiring all Belgians aged 12 or over to wear masks on public transport. Other shops will reopen a week later."

Belgium? Ugh, Jesus. The country (aside from San Marino) with the highest deaths per capita.

25-04-2020 08:01AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Belgium? Ugh, Jesus. The country (aside from San Marino) with the highest deaths per capita.

Belgium is one of the few countries that is counting all Covid deaths. There are lots of apples, oranges and bananas in those per capita statistics.

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 08:09AM

1641 wrote: »

Belgium is one of the few countries that is counting all Covid deaths. There are lots of apples, oranges and bananas in those per capita statistics.

Okay then, they also have the second-highest per capita cases of countries with population greater than a million. And they don't have a particularly high testing rate banana.

I'm just not convinced they're a country that should be in the lead on lifting restrictions.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 08:18AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Near a million (known) cases - over 50,000 already dead (actually many more now they are following the WHO advice) - remember they only really started testing a little while ago
State governors are opening up regardless the situation - an idiot for a president
It is gonna be a sh*t storm in America in the next few months

Without preventative measures their death toll could easily hit millions even at a conservative CFR of 1%

All the predictive models are putting the death toll at under 100k far far believe the millions you've just pulled from the sky.

Based on the suspected mortality rate would be impossible for 1 million people to die unless people were able to get Covid a second time which is extremely unlikely.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 08:25AM

kyote00 wrote: »

You are really missing the point.....

About 27 million people in the good old USA have not health insurance
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.html

The free medicare and medicade programs operate differently in different states and the research shows that uninsured people wait until critical (with covid-19 that's too late) before going to emergency dept.

Its been the same of decades and is a one of the contributory reasons for the reduction in longevity that the USA has experiences over the last 30 years....

( Private healthcare in the USA is excellent - especially the coporate subscriptions as they screen people for many illnesses and are very good at early diagnosis)

PS. I lived in the US for 12 years so have first hand experience of it. I like the place but think they are better leaders on both sides than the man child.

False.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/trump-administration-says-it-will-pay-hospitals-for-treating-uninsured-covid-19-patients/2020/04/22/3df5fbb4-84b5-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html%3foutputType=amp

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 08:27AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

...unless people were able to get Covid a second time which is extremely unlikely.

Citation needed.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 08:36AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Citation needed.

I said extrememy unlikely not 100% true

"There remains a lot of uncertainty, but experts TIME spoke with say that it’s likely the reports of patients who seemed to have recovered but then tested positive again were not examples of re-infection, but were cases where lingering infection was not detected by tests for a period of time."

"With other coronavirus strains, experts say the antibodies that patients produce during infection give them immunity to the specific virus for months or even years"

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

Lolle06 · 25-04-2020 08:41AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

I said extrememy unlikely not 100% true

"There remains a lot of uncertainty, but experts TIME spoke with say that it’s likely the reports of patients who seemed to have recovered but then tested positive again were not examples of re-infection, but were cases where lingering infection was not detected by tests for a period of time."

"With other coronavirus strains, experts say the antibodies that patients produce during infection give them immunity to the specific virus for months or even years"

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

Your link is a few weeks old.
You should check the updated information on antibodies/ immunity to Covid-19:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200421-will-we-ever-be-immune-to-covid-19?ocid

patnor1011 · 25-04-2020 08:42AM

Ficheall wrote: »

What? I said "those of"

I stand corrected Sir.

It was probably that number 7% which got me as this is all just a number game at this point. We all know that you can present any number and have some carefuly selected fats to support it. If nothing then time will show true number as currently with antibodies testing it is becoming obvious that death rate is pretty much on par with influenza. Health care system and norms can greatly influence results.
Some countries hospitals are simply better than other countries.

25-04-2020 08:44AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Okay then, they also have the second-highest per capita cases of countries with population greater than a million. And they don't have a particularly high testing rate banana.

I'm just not convinced they're a country that should be in the lead on lifting restrictions.

Again, most countries do not include all deaths, in the way Belgium do. Comparing numbers like this from Worldometer to give a league table is almost meaningless, as the numbers in many cases relate to different things.

Whether or not they should be lifting restrictions is a different thing.

Jim_Hodge · 25-04-2020 08:53AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

False.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/trump-administration-says-it-will-pay-hospitals-for-treating-uninsured-covid-19-patients/2020/04/22/3df5fbb4-84b5-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html%3foutputType=amp

False.

That proposal hasn't been enacted yet. As things stand, right now, Kyote is correct.

Ficheall · 25-04-2020 08:57AM

1641 wrote: »

Again, most countries do not include all deaths, in the way Belgium do. Comparing numbers like this from Worldometer to give a league table is almost meaningless, as the numbers in many cases relate to different things.

Not deaths. Cases.

What would you regard as not meaningless as a matter of interest, if the highest per capita deaths and the second-highest per capita cases (as they've been recorded) are not reliable?

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 08:59AM

Lolle06 wrote: »

Your link is a few weeks old.
You should check the updated information on antibodies/ immunity to Covid-19:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200421-will-we-ever-be-immune-to-covid-19?ocid

It's all speculation but if we go by previous coronaviruses, those with a high viral load will be immune.
We cant be definitive but that article is suggesting even if you dont built up immunity it will be the younger asymptomatic patient's who are at risk from getting it a second time.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 09:04AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

False.

That proposal hasn't been enacted yet. As things stand, right now, Kyote is correct.

But it will be? Kyote said the death rate in America was actually higher without any facts to back it up instead speculation.

Do You think people pay their hospital bills in cash or do they receive the bill at a later stage?

https://apnews.com/2e42dbf0e5b52b144873417553a3c66b

Gynoid · 25-04-2020 09:09AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

It's all speculation but if we go by previous coronaviruses, those with a high viral load will be immune.
We cant be definitive but that article is suggesting even if you dont built up immunity it will be the younger asymptomatic patient's who are at risk from getting it a second time.

The possibility of getting it again until one gets sufficiently high a viral load to not get it again is not that comforting. High viral load seems to be implicated in a more severe dose.

(Having said that I know next to nothing about that state of affairs on corona immunity, have not been reading about that part.)

Not in Kansas · 25-04-2020 09:12AM

jackboy wrote: »

Christ. The news just had a piece where an opera singer was brought outside some oul wans apartment to give her a song. Talk about unnecessary journeys.

If you are talking about Celine Byrne, she lives in Naas which is where the housing association also is. All social distancing measures were strictly observed. I know this because I have performed there during the lockdown also. The residents are older people, most living alone in small apartments with no gardens. About half of them have balconies. It was livestreamed for others.

They are trying their best to look after the mental health of the residents and while my own contribution was a pleasant enough distraction, a world class soprano turning up would have been a massive boost for all.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 09:13AM

Gynoid wrote: »

The possibility of getting it again until one gets sufficiently high a viral load to not get it again is not that comforting. High viral load seems to be implicated in a more severe dose.

(Having said that I know next to nothing about that state of affairs on corona immunity, have not been reading about that part.)

I think it's comforting in regards protecting our high risk groups.

speckle · 25-04-2020 09:20AM

wakka12 wrote: »

The only time I've been really scared by this virus is the news of the young patients with mild symptoms or asymptomatic experiencing strokes. Has there been any increase in the number of strokes in young Irish people lately ?

What's scary is that these wouldn't even be noticed as anything related to Covid , was probably just found out by chance that all those young stroke victims at that American hospital had covid

I posted early about up to 10 in the southwest had some sort of hand and leg paraylsing virus age 20ish up to 50ish from one area. OR could be water contaimnation etc.

Gynoid · 25-04-2020 09:22AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

I think it's comforting in regards protecting our high risk groups.

I don't understand your meaning. If - big IF - one can get it again if the initial viral load was too small to prompt immunity, how can that protect high risk groups?

Danzy · 25-04-2020 09:24AM

jibber5000 wrote: »

But it will be? Kyote said the death rate in America was actually higher without any facts to back it up instead speculation.

Do You think people pay their hospital bills in cash or do they receive the bill at a later stage?

https://apnews.com/2e42dbf0e5b52b144873417553a3c66b

The death rate everywhere is higher.

That's not controversial.

RandomName2 · 25-04-2020 09:24AM

It is interesting to compare Ireland and New Zealand.

Ireland: 1014 deaths, >9000 active cases
New Zealand: 18 deaths, >325 active cases

Difference? New Zealand put some of the tightest controls on immigration and repatriation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/new-zealand-australia-tighten-lockdown-to-combat-coronavirus-idUSKBN211020

Our HSE initially said that people didn't have to self-isolate even if returning from areas with active outbreaks of the virus, unless they themselves had symptoms. This has lead to a thousand avoidable deaths.

The workers for Keelings presumably don't have to self-isolate. When we start easing restrictions I'm sure we'll have direct flights again from places who have bad outbreaks, and people coming from these locations will not be subject to testing, allowing for a sharp increase in cases.

Although, let's be honest, even with about 40 people a day perishing in Ireland, people here are pretty hard to reign in.

owlbethere · 25-04-2020 09:34AM

speckle wrote: »

I posted early about up to 10 in the southwest had some sort of hand and leg paraylsing virus age 20ish up to 50ish from one area. OR could be water contaimnation etc.

How do you know this? Is it from a local grapevine or do you have a news article about it?

(still scary)

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 09:35AM

Gynoid wrote: »

I don't understand your meaning. If - big IF - one can get it again if the initial viral load was too small to prompt immunity, how can that protect high risk groups?

I mean those who were elderly and hospitalised would theoretically have built up immunity versus an asymptomatic younger person.

jibber5000 · 25-04-2020 09:41AM

owlbethere wrote: »

How do you know this? Is it from a local grapevine or do you have a news article about it?

(still scary)

Anectodally, I would know of a couple of sudden deaths in covid patients.

One of the health workers in the south east was cutting his lawn in the afternoon and was found dead later that evening.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-tributes-paid-to-kilkenny-hospital-workers-who-died-from-covid-19-1.4230945%3fmode=amp

Impossible to know for sure but deaths as sudden as this are likely to have been caused by a clot to the lung. Bloods from Covid patients have shown high inflammatory markers which are usually an indicator of possible blood clots.

There's still been no objective evidence but I think it's been noted a few times already on this thread.

Edit: not sure if this is close to the edge by bringing up a specific example from a paper given the tragic cirumstances. If so, apologies.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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