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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #3722
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,594 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    podgeandrodge wrote:
    No. He'd be absolutely correct. However, I am open to you confirming that you are a doctor who has a differing opinion to the CMO?
    The CMO said yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, that the lockdown has to continue?


  • #3723
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    joe_99 wrote: »
    We will need masks if we want to ease restrictions IMO

    Yep, without social distancing I agree that masks might be needed in certain circumstances - not while out having a walk or potentially not with a quick shopping. But in any closed environment where you are likely to be in contact with the same people for a period of time.

    With social distancing in place I don't see the current need.

    But if the pubs only allow people with masks on, count me in!


  • #3724
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    eagle eye wrote: »
    The CMO said yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, that the lockdown has to continue?

    Yes, I think so. To continue flattening the curve until we are on top of things. Doesn't mean that he believes community transmission is high or increasing all of a sudden.


  • #3725
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Jasus I cannot take another hyphenated speech from that absolute clown shoe.
    I'd prefer pascal donohoe to do it, I find him the smartest and most honest of them all...and he's about as qualified as Simon "sure I'm an awful fella be times"
    where's me other 18 virus's harris!!!


  • #3726
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Herd immunity is a (potential) end goal. An increasing immune population is still beneficial though. Was talking about this in the Sweden thread earlier.

    Apparently 21% of people in New York city have had it. I would guess that number is a lot higher in Lombardy and Madrid. When they open up restrictions, by definition the next peak can only be 80% of this one.

    But it is more than that:
    • More immune people reduces the R0. If I have it, and I meet a person who is immune (one in five chance), they can't get it, or pass it on to anyone else.
    • People LIKELY to get it and spread it are more likely to have had it and to be immune. Socialites, front-line workers etc. So again, the spread is not as fast.
    • Bluntly, the population most at risk has been thinned significantly, so deaths and stress on medical services is less.

    Basically the second wave in Lombardy won't be a lot of fun but it won't be as bad as the first, probably a good bit better.

    For areas that have had it bad, they can feel at least a little optimistic about the future. Those that haven't can't really be sure what is going to happen next.

    No they don't... This was not a representative sampling. "The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."

    So probably capturing people at higher risk of exposure.

    The test they used has a 93-100% specificity, so up to 7% could be false positives. Add to that base rate fallacy from low prevalence and the fact that there was selection bias, as people were told in advance they could come and line up to be tested.

    Extrapolating from that select highly exposed group to the general population of New York is impossible. Most published studies show the number of people with Covid antibodies in the community to be in single% figures.


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  • #3727
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    At some stage controlled herd immunity is going to play a part in government strategies, ie cocooning the vulnerable including nursing homes and slowly allowing everyone else get it in a gradual spread. If they want to save economies they will have no choice.

    Once you lift restrictions the R0 goes up and you cant remain in lockdown permanently. And there's no guarantee a vaccine will be here in 12 months time and if it is that's its totally effective.
    You are basing your herd immunity thesis on two unproven assumptions, one of which is unprovable in your implicit timespan.

    1. The average antibody level in recovered people is sufficient to prevent or greatly mitigate the effects of a subsequent exposure to COVID-19.
    No evidence.

    2. The antibodies have a reasonable lifespan e.g. 18-24 months.
    No time.


  • #3728
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    But community transmission is now effectively zero according to the CMO.

    So who should I believe - you or Tony?

    Why has the CMO not recognized the pre-symptomatic viral spread exists ? It's been published in the literature since early February.

    Perhaps you could ask him, seeing that you are on first name terms with him.


  • #3729
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Deaths definitely going downward in UK, 684 today and its not even weekend.

    Deaths in Scotland remain very high though, almost 1200 there now.


  • #3730
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    No they don't... This was not a representative sampling. "The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."

    So probably capturing people at higher risk of exposure.

    The test they used has a 93-100% specificity, so up to 7% could be false positives. Add to that base rate fallacy from low prevalence and the fact that there was selection bias, as people were told in advance they could come and line up to be tested.

    Extrapolating from that select highly exposed group to the general population of New York is impossible. Most published studies show the number of people with Covid antibodies in the community to be in single% figures.

    Most of them would likely live with families and brought it back home. Apartment living is massive in NYC and they also likely infected a number of people in their apartment complex. Then you have the underground.
    The point is that a large number of people are carrying it around asymptomatically and the prevalence is in reality significantly higher than previously thought. In other words, lockdown and containment didn't work and it still allowed for the spread asymptomatically.

    You might be surprised what antibody testing shows up in Ireland too. One professor reckons our infection numbers are 10 times higher than confirmed cases.

    I will go with the professor on this one.


  • #3731
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    On vaccines Jon Barbour director of medical affairs at glavosmithkline Ireland
    Says giving specific dates of when vaccines could be ready is not prudent.
    Sometimes vaccines can take up to 10 years to produce.


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  • #3732
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    No they don't... This was not a representative sampling. "The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."

    So probably capturing people at higher risk of exposure.

    The test they used has a 93-100% specificity, so up to 7% could be false positives. Add to that base rate fallacy from low prevalence and the fact that there was selection bias, as people were told in advance they could come and line up to be tested.

    Extrapolating from that select highly exposed group to the general population of New York is impossible. Most published studies show the number of people with Covid antibodies in the community to be in single% figures.

    Fair clarifications - although people living with people shopping are likely to get it too.

    The point still stands - over time the waves get easier to handle.

    We really need to get over the idea that this is an argument with a right and a wrong answer. If we get a vaccine in 6 months, great, our present strategy works or should work.

    If it takes 2 years, or 3 years, or more, then we're going to have to accept living with the disease to some extent (whilst being as sensible as we can).

    I don't understand why people act so certain that only one strategy is possible when we don't know the first thing about this situation really.


  • #3733
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    bekker wrote: »
    You are basing your herd immunity thesis on two unproven assumptions, one of which is unprovable in your implicit timespan.

    1. The average antibody level in recovered people is sufficient to prevent or greatly mitigate the effects of a subsequent exposure to COVID-19.
    No evidence.

    2. The antibodies have a reasonable lifespan e.g. 18-24 months.
    No time.

    Do you think a vaccine will be different?

    If the R0 jumps when we lift restrictions, we could in reality be faced with a near permanent lockdown until a vaccine, a vaccine that in reality might only protect 70%, in line with the current commonly used flu vaccine.

    If someone can guarantee a 100% working vaccine within the next 12 months then lets wait for it.

    Fact is no-one can guarantee that, not even the experts working on vaccines for decades. And that is a huge problem.


  • #3734
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,

    One poster made an excellent point, if it's so low in the community, it shouldn't be in the nursing homes.

    Well it's in the nursing homes so it's very much out there.


  • #3735
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    From RTE feed - nursing homes in Portugal.
    Portugal hopes to conduct 70,000 coronavirus tests by the end of May at care homes, among whose residents around two in five of the country's Covid-19 deaths have occurred.


  • #3736
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,273 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    One poster made an excellent point, if it's so low in the community, it shouldn't be in the nursing homes.

    Well it's in the nursing homes so it's very much out there.

    IMO, when you see a mouse in your kitchen, you can bet there are at least 10 more you can't see. This is no different.


  • #3737
    Ms2011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Ms2011


    Really missing my old life today, craving it even, it wasn't extravagant or hectic but it was mine and I had control of it.
    Can't believe we are where we are, getting more surreal by the day.
    This frown is getting harder and harder to turn upside down :(


  • #3738
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Spain are now using antibody tests to confirm positive cases.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/spain-sees-large-spike-in-number-of-new-coronavirus-cases-with-6740-infections-recorded-in-24-hours-its-largest-figure-since-emerging-from-its-peak-three-weeks-ago/ar-BB138Epp?ocid=spartanntp

    An interesting approach.

    The latest big hike there has nothing to do with lifting of restrictions, but rather more widespread testing.


  • #3739
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Imagine there were a bunch of serial killers on the loose, and we were struggling to catch them all... would everyone be chomping at the bit to get back out there? Or would we all need some assurances about our safety and chances of getting attacked?

    At the very least, we need a massive improvement in testing and rapid turnaround in results... without this, I really don't see how we can send millions of people back out onto the streets to be exposed to a virus that we know very little about. (other than it's quite lethal)

    Do we want them done right or done fast? I have a friend working in testing on this virus. Highly skilled, very good at her job, over a decade of experience in virus testing. It took time for her to get up to speed on the testing process for this virus (the first few weeks, she said she could barely think after getting home on work, she was so exhausted) and she is only now learning how to help analyse the results beyond saying whether they are positive or negative. People have such a simplistic idea of what testing entails and the skills required.


  • #3740
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,
    If you met any of 20 people who actually had the virus, you might be one of the 5 unlucky enough to catch it. Those are your odds.


  • #3741
    Iamabeliever
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 464 ✭✭Iamabeliever


    I don't understand people saying we're not taking this seriously, I've been out all day soaking up the sun and I barely seen anyone. People on here just scaremongering


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  • #3742
    rosiem
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭rosiem


    rusty cole wrote: »
    has the back log on testing being complete?? it was supposed to be, by latest this or even end of last week. are we up to speed on testing now?

    Yes it was completed.


  • #3743
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Mental Mickey wrote: »
    Is Leo due to make an announcement today?

    Here's my draft for him:


    "Ahem, eh, hello Ladies and Gentlemen, and other variants. As your Taoiseach and great leader, you'll be very aware that I am not one for chasing the limelight.
    But I was humbled by the reaction of my St Patrick's Day speech, which was actually my first use of my latest speech training. I hope you like where I start a sentence and stop mid way, for effect, before continuing again.

    Anyway, it's about popularity at this stage. So I am happy to follow Italy's lead and let all pubs open from mid May. Thanks again for your support!"


  • #3744
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Good news story from RTE feed.
    Operations Manager John McDermott and his design team of Rapid Action Packaging in Gaoth Dobhair came up with a unique face shield using the same cardboard and protective film, equipment and skills that they normally use for food packaging.

    The first batch of one million went into production this week, feedback from the HSE and NHS has been positive and already the shields are in use in some cancer care centres in the UK.

    They can ramp up to 10m a week and are also supplying care homes for free.


  • #3745
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Iamabeliever wrote: »
    I don't understand people saying we're not taking this seriously, I've been out all day soaking up the sun and I barely seen anyone. People on here just scaremongering

    The best thing you can come out with... Scaremongering... Yet, they were able to see that there was increased activity through some Google/Apple tracking thing.


  • #3746
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    omerin wrote: »
    Anyone driving to a park should be fined, no excuses. This is an easy win for the guards so why aren't they doing it? Get traffic wardens doing it, but it needs to be done, we are far too laissez faire in this country

    i drive to the park its less than 2 k away but across a main road which id have to walk to the bottom of to get to the lights so its safer to drive the kids there, Why should I be fined ?


  • #3747
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Why has the CMO not recognized the pre-symptomatic viral spread exists ? It's been published in the literature since early February.

    Perhaps you could ask him, seeing that you are on first name terms with him.

    I'll leave that to Paddygreen, he's the one in communications with them!


  • #3748
    Downlinz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,674 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,

    They're likely a lot lower than they were a few weeks ago and unfortunately also likely to be a lot lower than they will be in a few weeks time when restrictions ease


  • #3749
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Per the Kerry thread, the virus seems to be in firm decline locally:

    https://twitter.com/kerryman_ie/status/1253391228151959559

    https://twitter.com/kerryman_ie/status/1253456031377735681


  • #3750
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    One poster made an excellent point, if it's so low in the community, it shouldn't be in the nursing homes.

    Well it's in the nursing homes so it's very much out there.

    Sorry if I am being stupid here, but I don't see the connection. In public we are social distancing. In nursing homes that is more difficult.


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  • #3751
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,815 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Look at Birx face as Trump ponders "what if you brought the light inside the body" and injecting disinfectant

    https://twitter.com/Damejones11/status/1253500416941154304

    Just astonishing gibberish, even for Trump.


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