Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

tobefrank321 · 24-04-2020 02:44PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Half the people dieing are not in nursing homes.

The modelling of various R0s presented showed very sobering picture.

Basically they reckon the R0 is well below 1 which is a well done to all of us.
But if it goes back up to around 1.5 they projected 1000 new cases a day with a within a week. If it's 2.4 new cases go off the chart.

Remember the R0 under previous restrictions was around 3 at best.

At some stage controlled herd immunity is going to play a part in government strategies, ie cocooning the vulnerable including nursing homes and slowly allowing everyone else get it in a gradual spread. If they want to save economies they will have no choice.

Once you lift restrictions the R0 goes up and you cant remain in lockdown permanently. And there's no guarantee a vaccine will be here in 12 months time and if it is that's its totally effective.

joe_99 · 24-04-2020 02:44PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,

You would. Community transmission is almost zero according to Dr. Holohan.

You could still get it from family, friends and work colleagues but from strangers it is practically zero at the moment.

Scotty # · 24-04-2020 02:45PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At some stage controlled herd immunity is going to play a part in government strategies

Even at 20,000 infections here per week, it would take almost 4 years to reach 60% coverage.

Scotty # · 24-04-2020 02:47PM

joe_99 wrote: »

You would. Community transmission is almost zero according to Dr. Holohan.

You could still get it from family, friends and work colleagues but from strangers it is practically zero at the moment.

Wouldn't that be because I'm NOT IN CONTACT with strangers at the moment?

joe_99 · 24-04-2020 02:50PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Wouldn't that be because I'm NOT IN CONTACT with strangers at the moment?

You might not be but plenty of people still have jobs to go, shopping to do, elderly to take care of, kids to take for a walk, exercise within 2km of home etc. We are not on a lockdown.

Lack of community transmission is a huge positive at the moment

Akabusi · 24-04-2020 02:52PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sounds about right but at least it's FRIDAY.

Speaking of which, I need to get some beer in.

In all seriousness the points are valid and very worrying, I hope we can get through this without too much long lasting damage.

GooglePlus · 24-04-2020 02:52PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Even at 20,000 infections here per week, it would take almost 4 years to reach 60% coverage.

If we had 20,000 cases per week and we let it go without restrictions, you can bet on it being higher than 20,000 for the following week(s).

Cork Boy 53 · 24-04-2020 02:53PM

Redo91 wrote: »

Jesus opening bars and restaurants as early as May seems like lunacy!

And if there is a resurgence of new cases they will be closed again very quickly afterwards.

bekker · 24-04-2020 02:53PM

quokula wrote: »

That's a single prototype, and when I tried to look it up to learn more every single article I can find about it is in a design or architecture publication, rather than anything medical or scientific, which makes me wonder how serious it is.

Remember that anything like this still needs staff and equipment. They built a massive field hospital in a convention centre in London but it's been turning patients away because they don't have enough nurses to staff it. You can only ramp up critical healthcare so quickly, early detection and suppression of the number of cases is always going to be more important.

True, but that prototype is in operation in Milan.

Of course it has to staffed, maybe by transferring the same staff from the dedicated COVID-19 ICUs in the acute hospitals.

The main issue is allowing the return of the acute hospitals to normal operation treating the growing backlog.

Additionally it is likely that people with acute conditions would be more likely to accept going to hospital earlier if they were sure that no COVID-19 patients being treated there. Illogical maybe, but that's the way people are.

Someone earlier raise access door width, so you use warehouses or locate unit/s under temporary cover outside.

Unfortunately the typical Irish official bureaucratic reaction is to raise problems not seek solutions, siloed thinking all over the place.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 24-04-2020 02:53PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

We might very well have no choice at some point, but that doesn't mean we are going to function well... without a vaccine or even a very basic therapeutic treatment in the works. Do you seriously think we're going to be functioning well as a society/economy if we completely opened up in the near future?

I never mentioned anything about disease eradication btw. You're jumping the gun quite a bit there ODB... we might think about shooting for treatments and a basic workable vaccine first, before we even begin to think about complete eradication of the virus.

I don’t know. I’m saying we will more than likely have to coexist with it. Even with a vaccine. Note all the diseases we live with that we have vaccines for.

eagle eye · 24-04-2020 02:55PM

tobefrank321 wrote:

At some stage controlled herd immunity is going to play a part in government strategies, ie cocooning the vulnerable including nursing homes and slowly allowing everyone else get it in a gradual spread. If they want to save economies they will have no choice.

You cannot consider herd immunity when there are claims of people getting infected a second time.

tobefrank321 · 24-04-2020 02:56PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Even at 20,000 infections here per week, it would take almost 4 years to reach 60% coverage.

Its very likely going to be higher than 20,000 infections per week.

New York now has an estimated 2.7 million infections in the matter of 2-3 months.

However, we need to be smart about this - at the moment we don't know which nursing home staff or nurses going in there are infected. Testing will help, but by the time test results come back you could have infected the whole nursing home or if you test negative, you could still pick it up the following day.

All nursing home staff would need to be recovered and with antibodies. We likely have 1000 cured medical staff already, its those who should be working in nursing homes.

The more people you have recovered from covid 19, the more available you have to work with vulnerable categories.

But the fewer recovered, the higher the risk of infecting the elderly. We are seeing that now.

caveat emptor · 24-04-2020 02:57PM

Guess that's why they were disinfecting the air in china, Italia and Spain with those big aerosol machines on trucks. We have very low air pollution relatively so no cause for panic. It's also Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution

podgeandrodge · 24-04-2020 02:58PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Is there anyone out there with a better idea on how to prevent symptomless Covid patients spreading Covid in public ?

It's simple really...

“My mask protects you; your mask protects me.”

But community transmission is now effectively zero according to the CMO.

So who should I believe - you or Tony?

tobefrank321 · 24-04-2020 02:59PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You cannot consider herd immunity when there are claims of people getting infected a second time.

There's been studies done on that and they reckon it was people with very weak immune systems who couldn't fully shed it. Its likely they didn't get reinfected but just couldn't full cleanse their body of it.

Unelected CMO · 24-04-2020 02:59PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And if there is a resurgence of new cases they will be closed again very quickly afterwards.

Source?

quokula · 24-04-2020 03:00PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,

Your chances of getting it are extremely low, near zero.

But if four million people start milling about, all with an extremely low chance, a few hundred of them will catch it, then a few hundred more, then the chances of catching it increase, etc.

This is why there's absolutely no need to panic, but we can't suddenly lift all restrictions either. There's a lot of absolutism going around ranging from people who think they need to wipe down every delivery with bleach or they're going to die, to people who think we should just open the pubs back up and get on with it. The reality is a bit more nuanced than that.

tobefrank321 · 24-04-2020 03:00PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But community transmission is now effectively zero according to the CMO.

So who should I believe - you or Tony?

Next week they are rolling out wider community testing.

We will see then who was right.

But by Tony's own logic, if community infections are low, you'd expect nursing home infections to be low. Do the maths on that one.

24-04-2020 03:00PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Even at 20,000 infections here per week, it would take almost 4 years to reach 60% coverage.

Herd immunity is a (potential) end goal. An increasing immune population is still beneficial though. Was talking about this in the Sweden thread earlier.

Apparently 21% of people in New York city have had it. I would guess that number is a lot higher in Lombardy and Madrid. When they open up restrictions, by definition the next peak can only be 80% of this one.

But it is more than that:

More immune people reduces the R0. If I have it, and I meet a person who is immune (one in five chance), they can't get it, or pass it on to anyone else.
People LIKELY to get it and spread it are more likely to have had it and to be immune. Socialites, front-line workers etc. So again, the spread is not as fast.
Bluntly, the population most at risk has been thinned significantly, so deaths and stress on medical services is less.

Basically the second wave in Lombardy won't be a lot of fun but it won't be as bad as the first, probably a good bit better.

For areas that have had it bad, they can feel at least a little optimistic about the future. Those that haven't can't really be sure what is going to happen next.

New Home · 24-04-2020 03:02PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Guess that's why they were disinfecting the air in china, Italia and Spain with those big aerosol machines on trucks. We have very low air pollution relatively so no cause for panic. It's also Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution

They were using high pressure, high temperature steam in some parts of Italy.

Rob A. Bank · 24-04-2020 03:03PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At some stage controlled herd immunity is going to play a part in government strategies, ie cocooning the vulnerable including nursing homes and slowly allowing everyone else get it in a gradual spread. If they want to save economies they will have no choice.

Once you lift restrictions the R0 goes up and you cant remain in lockdown permanently. And there's no guarantee a vaccine will be here in 12 months time and if it is that's its totally effective.

What complete and utter rubbish. The Herd Immunity theory was evolved when a safe vaccine was available to reach the desired immunity level.

Using a deadly poorly understood new virus to try to achieve the mythical 'Herd immunity', in order to save the markets, is certifiable lunacy of the first order.

Any doctor who would propose to use a deadly virus like this for 'Herd Immunity' purposes, should be reported to the Medical Council for unethical behavior and have his licence to practice removed.

joe_99 · 24-04-2020 03:04PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But community transmission is now effectively zero according to the CMO.

So who should I believe - you or Tony?

We will need masks if we want to ease restrictions IMO

ek motor · 24-04-2020 03:06PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

If we had 20,000 cases per week and we let it go without restrictions, you can bet on it being higher than 20,000 for the following week(s).

Immunity to other coronaviruses lasts months or at most a couple of years. This one is unlikely to be any different. Not to mention the potential for long term health implications for those left with severly damaged lungs from this infection.

tobefrank321 · 24-04-2020 03:07PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

What complete and utter rubbish. The Herd Immunity theory was evolved when a safe vaccine was available to reach the desired immunity level.

Using a deadly poorly understood new virus to try to achieve the mythical 'Herd immunity', in order to save the markets, is certifiable lunacy of the first order.

Any doctor who would propose to use a deadly virus like this for 'Herd Immunity' purposes, should be reported to the Medical Council for unethical behavior and have his licence to practice removed.

Grand - tell us when the vaccine will come along. Precisely. And guarantee us it will work fully.

We need dates here. Even a month would do. And a guarantee if will work.

Over to you sir.

Do you understand that 2.7 million are estimated already to be infected in NYC alone.

Imperial College in this study, also estimate 15% of the Spanish population were already infected by March 28th?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

The containment battle has been an utter failure medically and economically in many countries. Containment only works if its not half assed and if you protect nursing homes and the like.

Long running half assed containment is a strategy almost as bad as uncontrolled herd immunity spread.

As I said if a vaccine isn't 100% effective and lets remember that no vaccine is 100% effective, we are stuck in a near permanent lockdown.

24-04-2020 03:08PM

has the back log on testing being complete?? it was supposed to be, by latest this or even end of last week. are we up to speed on testing now?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 24-04-2020 03:09PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I don’t know. I’m saying we will more than likely have to coexist with it. Even with a vaccine. Note all the diseases we live with that we have vaccines for.

Imagine there were a bunch of serial killers on the loose, and we were struggling to catch them all... would everyone be chomping at the bit to get back out there? Or would we all need some assurances about our safety and chances of getting attacked?

At the very least, we need a massive improvement in testing and rapid turnaround in results... without this, I really don't see how we can send millions of people back out onto the streets to be exposed to a virus that we know very little about. (other than it's quite lethal)

podgeandrodge · 24-04-2020 03:09PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

If everyone was made by law to wear a mask when outdoors we wouldn't have that issue. Everyone knows about the 2m rule now how about devoting some time to public awareness on how to properly wear and use a mask with TV radio and billboard advertising.

If everyone following the 2m rule, then unlikely that masks will have significant impact other than protection from direct sneezes and coughs, which I am not discounting, or clearly where masks help when in continual close contact with an infected person such as in hospitals where frontline workers need them.

yourdeadwright wrote: »

would I be right in saying the chances of catching the virus out side of hospitals and care homes is very very low currently ,

eagle eye wrote: »

You'd be wrong and that will be the case until people cop on and start wearing facemasks.

No. He'd be absolutely correct. However, I am open to you confirming that you are a doctor who has a differing opinion to the CMO?

joe_99 wrote: »

You would. Community transmission is almost zero according to Dr. Holohan.

You could still get it from family, friends and work colleagues but from strangers it is practically zero at the moment.

Exactly.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Next week they are rolling out wider community testing.

We will see then who was right.

But by Tony's own logic, if community infections are low, you'd expect nursing home infections to be low. Do the maths on that one.

Don't agree with your nursing home analogy. Community infections being close to zero are based on social distancing. Nursing homes are the exact opposite and the virus is hard to contain in those circumstances.

hmmm · 24-04-2020 03:10PM

rusty cole wrote: »

has the back log on testing being complete?? it was supposed to be, by latest this or even end of last week. are we up to speed on testing now?

Yes, they are using the spare capacity to test everyone in nursing homes now.

Mental Mickey · 24-04-2020 03:10PM

Is Leo due to make an announcement today?

eagle eye · 24-04-2020 03:11PM

tobefrank321 wrote:

There's been studies done on that and they reckon it was people with very weak immune systems who couldn't fully shed it. Its likely they didn't get reinfected but just couldn't full cleanse their body of it.

Where's the link to that and even the way you are saying it sounds like it's not definitive. We are not playing a game here, people's lives are at stake.
We still don't know enough about this virus, we only learned yesterday that asymptomatics are having strokes and more about how this virus tries to find other ways into your body, damages organs and brain cells.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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