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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #3002
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,402 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    What's the general consensus on the position that community growth is zero or close to it?

    What are they basing this position on? Low admissions? High testing rates?

    There's 16,000 cases out there in total since March and yet only a few hundred new people a day are testing as positive (in the middle of a pandemic) : that would suggest very low transmission in the community


  • #3003
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    What 549 community cases? How can communtiy spread now be zero if that is the case


  • #3004
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Our death rate is increasing rapidly of late...

    ?????


  • #3005
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Nicotine patches are to be tested on coronavirus patients and healthcare workers treating infected people after initial studies suggested smokers were less likely to catch the disease.

    Researchers in France say early data indicates those who smoke make up a disproportionately small number of people in hospital with COVID-19.

    A study at Paris's Pitie-Salpetriere hospital suggests a substance in tobacco, thought to be nicotine, was preventing smokers contracting coronavirus.


    Sky news


  • #3006
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What 549 community cases? How can communtiy spread now be zero if that is the case
    People are spreading false information here. Community cases is NOT the same as community tranmission. Community cases are cases outside nursing homes/residential settings. They include close contacts.


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  • #3007
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Tony is talking about a tracking or movement system for earthquakes. Saying activity/movement is on the rise.

    Is that the reason for the new cases


  • #3008
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What 549 community cases? How can communtiy spread now be zero if that is the case

    387 cases are in nursing homes. The other 549 cases are from “other places” which are unspecified.


  • #3009
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What 549 community cases? How can communtiy spread now be zero if that is the case

    Who is claiming that it is?


  • #3010
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    That's fascinating Tony


  • #3011
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Strazdas wrote: »
    There's 16,000 cases out there in total since March and yet only a few hundred new people a day are testing as positive (in the middle of a pandemic) : that would suggest very low transmission in the community

    We've added more than 7,000 cases in the last 10 days alone!


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  • #3012
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What 549 community cases? How can communtiy spread now be zero if that is the case

    Varies wildly by county - over 300 cases in Dublin today, for instance, but only 3 in Kerry.


  • #3013
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    rm212 wrote: »
    387 cases are in nursing homes. The other 549 cases are from “other places” which are unspecified.
    549 from close contacts, people who caught it in hospitals, a very small amount of community tranmission etc etc..


  • #3014
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    People are spreading false information here. Community cases is NOT the same as community tranmission. Community cases are cases outside nursing homes/residential settings. They include close contacts.

    Yes - given the reproduction rate, most will be between family members.


  • #3015
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,947 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Tony is talking about a tracking or movement system for earthquakes. Saying activity/movement is on the rise.

    Is that the reason for the new cases

    If 90pc are complying and 10pc are keeping new cases rising, there is going to be huge uproar if restrictions are kept. The 90pc won't comply indefinitely for a bunch of arseh*les.


  • #3016
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,402 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    We've added more than 7,000 cases in the last 10 days alone!

    Yes but in the middle of a global pandemic which is at its peak in Europe. 7000 cases is actually very low in such a scenario.


  • #3017
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    Arghus wrote: »
    To be honest, I've seen very little Garda presence since the start of this lockdown period.

    I don't know if there's been much change there in how they do they do their job.

    People have just relaxed and now the idea of "May 5th" is in people's heads. Ah sure, it'll be grand.

    At times I think we are a very stupid nation.




    where are you? they have no other duties to do so have been out patrolling


    This is just after work, people have to go outside, it's not illegal


    they were out on the grand canal


    unheard of


    on foot and in the car


  • #3018
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Yes - given the reproduction rate, most will be between family members.
    I don't understand how people on here don't get this.
    If 500 people get it from other confirmed case family members in the morning, it still means community spread is zero.


  • #3019
    GolfNut33
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭GolfNut33


    These numbers are to be expected as the testing has been ramped up. Just goes to show the amount of people with the desease, a few weeks ago, must have been huge but just went untested.


  • #3020
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    People are spreading false information here. Community cases is NOT the same as community tranmission. Community cases are cases outside nursing homes/residential settings. They include close contacts.

    They haven’t given any confirmation that those other cases have been successfully contact traced, but it also doesn’t matter if they are, people shouldn’t have having close contact (confirmed or otherwise) if we are in lockdown and that many cases outside of nursing homes casts doubt over it being in control in the general community.


  • #3021
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    GolfNut33 wrote: »
    These numbers are to be expected as the testing has been ramped up. Just goes to show the amount of people with the desease, a few weeks ago, must have been huge but just went untested.
    Based on New York's antibody testing results today (14% positive for antibodies), if we followed the same path it would mean up to 700,000 cases here, with the vast majority asymptomatic.


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  • #3022
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,208 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Well for starters a lot of deaths and lifetime damage attributed to strange "vaping disease" in the US and mainly lungs images looked eerily the same like covid lung pictures.

    While people cant "prove" to you that this virus came earlier you cant "prove" it only started in dec/jan so most of what we discuss here is just speculation. Are you saying that nobody came here from China in dec/jan or nobody was in direct contact with anyone from there?
    Even things you think that are facts may not be that.

    That old story of it being around in here in December is totally bogus. It's been disproved time and time and time again.

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, which you do not have.

    There was a bad cold going around towards the end of last year. But that's all it was: a bad cold. Our hospitals and ICU's didn't experience a sudden surge of people presenting with symptoms. That should be evidence enough that this was something new.


  • #3023
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Yes but in the middle of a global pandemic which is at its peak in Europe. 7000 cases is actually very low in such a scenario.

    Not for a tiny country like us it's not... especially with our very low population density. It's actually quite a lot of cases.


  • #3024
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    I can`t access the briefing at present. Has a breakdown been given of where the deaths occurred? As in what regions of the country?


  • #3025
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    rm212 wrote: »
    They haven’t given any confirmation that those other cases have been successfully contact traced, but it also doesn’t matter if they are, people shouldn’t have having close contact (confirmed or otherwise) if we are in lockdown and that many cases outside of nursing homes casts doubt over it being in control in the general community.
    They said community spread is zero a week ago. If you test positive in a house of 4, realistically that's +3 new cases. It's pretty basic stuff.


  • #3026
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I don't understand how people on here don't get this.
    If 500 people get it from other confirmed case family members in the morning, it still means community spread is zero.

    I don’t get why you’re trying to peddle this idea that those cases have been confirmed as passed between family members when they have absolutely not shown hard evidence of that.


  • #3027
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Well for starters a lot of deaths and lifetime damage attributed to strange "vaping disease" in the US and mainly lungs images looked eerily the same like covid lung pictures.

    While people cant "prove" to you that this virus came earlier you cant "prove" it only started in dec/jan so most of what we discuss here is just speculation. Are you saying that nobody came here from China in dec/jan or nobody was in direct contact with anyone from there?
    Even things you think that are facts may not be that.

    Antibodie tests have shown an infection rate of 21% in New York city, if it was there since January it would be at least 50% given the very high R0 of the disease and the population density


  • #3028
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,947 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    They said community spread is zero a week ago. If you test positive in a house of 4, realistically that's +3 new cases. It's pretty basic stuff.

    How have family cases not stopped - technically they should have been ceased from mid-April at the latest as we have been locked down.


  • #3029
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »
    If 90pc are complying and 10pc are keeping new cases rising, there is going to be huge uproar if restrictions are kept. The 90pc won't comply indefinitely for a bunch of arseh*les.

    Its hard to know what's going to happen.


    I'm fearful now. Theres an increase in cases and Tony was also able to tell us that there is an increase in movement and activity from some sort of an earthquake monitoring system.

    I would be afraid of restrictions easing now or in 2 weeks on May the 5th.


  • #3030
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Anyone who thinks we are getting a notable easing of restrictions in May 5th need to see Phillip Nolans graph modelling based on R0s if restrictions were lifted. If the R0 goes back up to 1.5 or so, under current case definitions new cases we would be back up to 1000 a day within a week or two. If the R0 jumps to 2.4 new cases fly off the chart.


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  • #3031
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,402 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    GolfNut33 wrote: »
    These numbers are to be expected as the testing has been ramped up. Just goes to show the amount of people with the desease, a few weeks ago, must have been huge but just went untested.

    That would apply everywhere, Europe, the US etc. The 'real' number of cases would be much higher.


This discussion has been closed.
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