Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 09:31PM

ZX7R wrote: »

I've seen the stats you post,
If it lull's you into a sense that other countries are doing better so be it.
But you are not taking into account every country has different testing criteria, different definitions on recording of deaths.

Unless you are comparing Ireland with China, I doubt there are huge differences in the methods. Some countries are testing more than others but numbers are public

eagle eye · 20-04-2020 09:31PM

trapp wrote:

You haven't a clue really do you.

You should look in the mirror and say that and you'd be telling the right person.

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 09:32PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Most cases in Italy are from Lombady, Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna
These regions together have a population of around 30 milion, half of Italy.

Going by your logic most cases in Ireland are from Dublin, see where this is going?

Again ignoring the obvious and just looking for numbers to justify yourself

VonLuck · 20-04-2020 09:33PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You should look in the mirror and say that and you'd be telling the right person.

Reminiscent of an insult from Brick in Anchorman.

Rob A. Bank · 20-04-2020 09:34PM

Strange times.

U.S. Oil Prices Plunge Into Negative Territory !

api.asp?sym=US@CL.1&duration=120&chartstyle=SectionFront&w=360&h=220&display=fillclose&scale=2&topLabel=%20&showChange=0&backgroundColor=FFFFFF&fillColor=eee&line1Color=333

api.asp?sym=US@CL.1&duration=120&chartstyle=SectionFront&w=360&h=220&display=fillclose&scale=2&topLabel=%20&showChange=0&backgroundColor=FFFFFF&fillColor=eee&line1Color=333

Oil prices tumbled as the economic crisis set off by the coronavirus pandemic continued to destroy demand for energy, and as concerns grew that storage tanks in the United States were near capacity and unable to hold all the unused crude...

A benchmark for oil that will be delivered next month went negative, meaning it was essentially deemed worthless, suggesting that people who had oil to sell were willing to pay for it to be taken off their hands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/stock-market-live-trading-coronavirus.html

Upforthematch · 20-04-2020 09:34PM

GM228 wrote: »

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 52 – Monday 20/04/2020
All data is cumulative

Day
|
Date
|
Cases
|
New Cases
|
Total Cases
|
Case Increase
|
Reporting Increase
|
New Deaths
|
Total Deaths
|
Deaths daily increase
|
CFR
|
New Hosp
|
Total Hosp
|
Hosp %
|
Hosp daily increase
|
New ICU
|
Total ICU
|
ICU %
|
ICU daily increase
|
Recovered**
|
Recovery %
|
Population
| Active Cases***

52
|
20/04/2020
|
15251
|
401
|
15652
|
3%
|
-19%
|
77
|
687
|
13%
|
4.4%
|
0
|
2272
|
15%
|
0%
|
0
|
306
|
2%
|
0%
|
77
|
0%
|
0.318%
| 14888

Northern Ireland Statistics:-

Day
|
Date
|
Cases
|
New Cases
|
Total Cases
|
Case Increase
|
Reporting Increase
|
New Deaths
|
Total Deaths
|
% Increase
|
CFR
| Population %

52
|
20/04/2020
|
2645
|
83
|
2728
|
3%
|
-48%
|
0
|
194
|
0%
|
7.1%
| 0.143%

Thanks for your tables they are really informative.

I have just filtered them for today's figures for ROI and NI.

Very difficult to get a 'real' picture of what is going on.

Looking at daily changes looks pointless to me given the tardiness of reporting.

That leaves the cumulative of 3 main stats

Cumul. Number of COVID Cases (lagging indicator)
Problem: Depends on the number of tests - totally skewed and useless figure in my view.

Cumul. Number of COVID ICU (leading indicator)
Problem: Doesn't include Nursing Home Residents not being transferred to ICU.
However, Good stat for community transmission.

Cumul. Number of Deaths (lagging indicator)
Problem: Different countries are not counting all their deaths or counting them differently.
However, assuming the country is consistent in how it records a death - good stat for post-analysis against a fixed benchmark.

One thing we are missing is a good leading indicator for nursing homes - I assume that's why they have decided they must now test all nursing home staff and residents. More's the pity more nursing home staff can't 'live in' and cocoon with the residents.

Gynoid · 20-04-2020 09:36PM

easypazz wrote: »

I'd say most of them are secretly delighted when they heard the big 77 number of deaths today.
..............................

That's the saddest bit, using 77 deaths to score cheap points on the internet.

Self awareness. It's a thing.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 09:39PM

Upforthematch wrote: »

However, assuming the country is consistent in how it records a death - good stat for post-analysis against a fixed benchmark.

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

bettyoleary · 20-04-2020 09:40PM

Wombatman wrote: »

88% is correct. 605 of our 687 deaths are made up of care and nursing home residents. They may have moved from their care setting to hospital, where they could have passed away. I don't think suspected cases (not-lab confirmed) are included in our death figure yet.

Many people believe the falling ICU and hospital numbers indicate we are going in the right direction. Most nursing home patients will never see a hospital, let alone ICU.

I think the focus needs to move away from the hospital setting to care homes. Doctors and nurses should be reassigned from hospitals to care homes. Every care home resident should be tested. The number of positives will tell us where we are at.

There has to be a way to isolate those that test positive and the facilities to provide these people with the appropriate care if not requiring hospital. Of those that become more seriously ill , if they are strong enough and have a chance of making it through they should be taken to hospital. They say this is happening but I don't know.

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 09:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

Easy to google up every country do have some statistics office and informations are out there. It just take up some time.
Irelan numbers can be found here:
https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=vsa02_vsa09_vsa18

If you dig deeper you will even find numbers of deaths by cases like flu, pneumonia....

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 09:42PM

hmmm wrote: »

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

Be very surprised if there isn't some egregious numbers for countries "doing well"

Beasty · 20-04-2020 09:42PM

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

I wouldn't mind 'teaching' you a few home truths in real life.

The trends aren't. One day of lower cases doesn't make a trend. Deaths have averaged around 40 a day for the last 10 days.

You have no trends, you have no heart, you have nothing. One thing you have is the luck I'm not facing you at this moment in time.

Threadbanned

Wombatman · 20-04-2020 09:42PM

coastwatch wrote: »

Thanks, I listened back to to it and I think your figures are correct and make more sense. I think the way it was said it sounded like LTRC was 406 and Nursing Homes was 337, but it would make sense that the nursing homes are included in the LTRC total.
I'll correct the post.

The seem to be making a distinction between LTRCs and Nursing homes and are not lumping them together as LTRCs.

From today's statement....

Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said:

"Nursing homes and long-term residential facilities are a testing priority.
“In facilities with an existing cluster, all residents and staff are to be tested. In the event of a facility reporting its first case, testing of all staff and residents will take place.
“This sector remains a priority for NPHET, along with other vulnerable persons, and we will continue to implement supports and guidance on infection prevention control where required.”

Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan, Assistant Secretary Department of Health and Chair of NPHET Vulnerable People Subgroup, said:

"There are 18 COVID-19 response teams across the country, each one led by senior nursing support, assisting nursing homes and long-term residential facilities. These teams have senior clinical expertise, infection prevention and control and public health input in preventing and managing clusters.”

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/b02c86-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-monday-20-a/

Longing · 20-04-2020 09:42PM

In the last 20 days 616 people have died in the month of April from Covid-19.

March : 71 people died.

Hope with cases dropping deaths will fall to after the lag phase.

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 09:44PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

There has to be a way to isolate those that test positive and the facilities to provide these people with the appropriate care if not requiring hospital. Of those that become more seriously ill , if they are strong enough and have a chance of making it through they should be taken to hospital. They say this is happening but I don't know.

Sadly there is not a way short of arresting them but that is a double edged sword so let us not even go there.
Quite a lot of people who test positive do not have any symptoms and they do not think they have to stay at home.

bettyoleary · 20-04-2020 09:46PM

Upforthematch wrote: »

Thanks for your tables they are really informative.

I have just filtered them for today's figures for ROI and NI.

Very difficult to get a 'real' picture of what is going on.

Looking at daily changes looks pointless to me given the tardiness of reporting.

That leaves the cumulative of 3 main stats

Cumul. Number of COVID Cases (lagging indicator)
Problem: Depends on the number of tests - totally skewed and useless figure in my view.

Cumul. Number of COVID ICU (leading indicator)
Problem: Doesn't include Nursing Home Residents not being transferred to ICU.
However, Good stat for community transmission.

Cumul. Number of Deaths (lagging indicator)
Problem: Different countries are not counting all their deaths or counting them differently.
However, assuming the country is consistent in how it records a death - good stat for post-analysis against a fixed benchmark.

One thing we are missing is a good leading indicator for nursing homes - I assume that's why they have decided they must now test all nursing home staff and residents. More's the pity more nursing home staff can't 'live in' and cocoon with the residents.

They can though. They have in the UK in some places. There are people who would move in to nursing homes if they didn't have family commitments and some training if they wernt already qualified.

moonage · 20-04-2020 09:48PM

In normal times about 85 people a day die in Ireland, about a quarter of these in nursing/care homes.

That would, in normal times, be a total of about 4,250 over 50 days.

Does anyone know the total number of deaths over the last 50 days? I suspect it won't be as high as the hysterical, scaremongering media would lead us to believe.

Upforthematch · 20-04-2020 09:49PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

687 is an awful lot? While every death is personal tragedy to someone, numbers tell a different story.
About 30,000 people die in ireland every year (last 5 years average)
That make it approximately 82 people a day or 2500 a month.
Since it is nearly end of month 4, about 10,000 people died since start of the year out of which 687 people died died from covid related complication on top of their other health problems.

It's not relevant whether the person had other health complications. Full stop.

The goal is to prevent someone from dying from COVID.

Do the figures indicate success in the aim to minimise the number of COVID deaths? That is the question.

It is totally misleading to compare 10000 deaths (your figure) in 4 months with the 684 (of 687) COVID deaths which have taken place mostly in 1 month. In fact we only had 3 deaths on 20/3/2020 - one month ago today.

If we take your figure of 2500 a month and compare that to 687 COVID deaths I think it presents a very different and sad picture.

growleaves · 20-04-2020 09:49PM

hmmm wrote: »

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

Here are weekly deaths all ages for the USA. Graph of weekly US deaths (taken from CDC data) was created by economist Siddhartha Sanghi.

lockdown.png?resize=768%2C555&ssl=1

BanditLuke · 20-04-2020 09:49PM

Worst yet to come.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/20/21228226/who-head-warns-worst-of-virus-is-still-ahead-coronavirus-covid-19-stay-at-home-orderes

20-04-2020 09:50PM

What did the government decide today about quarantine for incoming travelers? I understand that there was a meeting about it this afternoon. I've a good friend, an Irish national, returning home tomorrow. She is sensible and will self isolate and get food delivered, but it prompted me to wonder what the actual process is. I assume that address is collected upon arrival. I can't find any evidence online if a decision having been made on this.

Don't really watch the news any more and only check in here periodically, so probably missed it. That's no good can come of immersion in this ****e every day

political analyst · 20-04-2020 09:51PM

If the research carried out by the team led by Dr Rosalyn Moran at King's College in London proves correct - that there will be several waves of infection before herd immunity is achieved - then the stay-at-home policy is futile because the economy has to return to business as usual at some point or else there won't be enough money to have a functional health service.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 09:51PM

growleaves wrote: »

Here are weekly deaths all ages for the USA. Graph of weekly US deaths (taken from CDC data) was created by economist Siddhartha Sanghi.

heh that's brilliant, I didn't consider that the lockdown itself might lower the overall death rate (e.g. fewer car accidents). Statistics, eh.

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 09:51PM

moonage wrote: »

In normal times about 85 people a day die in Ireland, about a quarter of these in nursing/care homes.

That would, in normal times, be a total of about 4,250 over 50 days.

Does anyone know the total number of deaths over the last 50 days? I suspect it won't be as high as the hysterical, scaremongering media would lead us to believe.

Congrats.
You found a red pill.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-04-2020 09:52PM

growleaves wrote: »

Here are weekly deaths all ages for the USA. Graph of weekly US deaths (taken from CDC data) was created by economist Siddhartha Sanghi.

Of course overall deaths are going to be down.

Less people out and about, less accidents, less traffic accidents, less crime, less murders etc etc

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 09:54PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Worst yet to come.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/20/21228226/who-head-warns-worst-of-virus-is-still-ahead-coronavirus-covid-19-stay-at-home-orderes

WTF is that supposed to mean - says something like that and doesn't explain his reasoning. Need to get rid of that guy and put Dr Ryan in charge

bettyoleary · 20-04-2020 09:55PM

Wombatman wrote: »

The seem to be making a distinction between LTRCs and Nursing homes and are not lumping them together as LTRCs.

From today's statement....

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/b02c86-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-monday-20-a/

That is the most positive post this evening.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-04-2020 09:56PM

fritzelly wrote: »

WTF is that supposed to mean - says something like that and doesn't explain his reasoning. Need to get rid of that guy and put Dr Ryan in charge

It's only the lock downs that have restricted spread.

It's inevitable what happens if you lift the lock downs in the absence of a vaccine.

A study in Vo, Italy which was near the epicenter of their outbreak found that transmission was restricted by over 90% (!) due to the measures taken there.

https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-testing.html

hmmm · 20-04-2020 09:56PM

fritzelly wrote: »

WTF is that supposed to mean - says something like that and doesn't explain his reasoning.

I suspect like a lot of comms from the WHO it's about trying to prevent complacency. Lots of people now think this is it, and we go back to normal, when it's really round 1 of who knows how many.

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 09:57PM

hmmm wrote: »

I suspect like a lot of comms from the WHO it's about trying to prevent complacency. Lots of people now think this is it, and we go back to normal, when it's really round 1 of who knows how many.

Then why not say that - have his Chinese overlords been whispering in his ear

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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