Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

poppers wrote: »

Is there a breakdown of the numbers between private and public nursing homes.
Nursing homes stayed closed but they still hired agency staff on a daily basis instead contracting people full time.
Private nursing home were a disaster waiting to happen since before covid 19 (im basing this on stories from friends who had parents in theses homes and were not happy with how things were being run).
While the gov prob could have done more Alot of them are just in it for the money and are now passing the buck to the gov.

This is total and utter shíte. Your basing this on some anecdotal rumour. People like you are dangerous. Ther's this misconception that nursing homes are a total mess and weren't capable of organizing a piss up in a brewery. That's just not true, no matter how many people want to believe there is some sort of scandal. Nursing Homes were screaming from the rooftops about the issues they would be facing but they were ignored and those in charge have as much as admitted that they got the handling of nursing homes wrong. There should have been more done to support them early on. The signs were there from other countries. It's a shame we didn't learn from the lessons of other countries. But like others have said in here before, there was bound to be some mistakes made and it's hard to have handled the whole situation perfectly.

Either way, making out that the nursing homes have the problems they have because they are in a mess is complete nonsense.

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 52 – Monday 20/04/2020
All data is cumulative

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Active Cases***
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 21
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 69
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 127
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 167
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 216
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 285
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 359
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 549
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 675
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 777
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 897
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1114
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1317
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1550
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1795
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2094
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2374
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2564
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2851
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3139
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3337
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3726
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4128
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4442
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4811
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5165
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5474
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5814
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6286
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7777
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8583
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9296
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10257
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11048
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12026
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12708
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13373
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14110
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14564
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14888


CFR = Case fatality rate
NR = Not reported

Source: Department of Health, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre and the HSE.

NOTES: -
* Daily increase numbers on these dates represent both new cases and older cases reported from Germany which results in skewed daily % increases and average case reporting % changes, numbers are broken down as:-
Day|Date|New Irish Cases|German Cases
42|10/04/20|480|1035
43|11/04/20|553|286
44|12/04/20|430|297
45|13/04/20| 527|465
46|14/04/20|548|284
47|15/04/20|657|411
48|16/04/20|629|95
49|17/04/20|597|112
50|18/04/20|630|148
51|19/04/20|445|48


~ Denotification of deaths:-
10/04/20 – 1
16/04/20 – 1

** "Recovered" rates are not reported by the Department of Health in the above link, these figures are taken from the Worldmeters and Johns Hopkins websites which use data supplied by the DoT to the ECDC under the WHO Guidelines for reporting.

Recovered statistics are only be published as "recovered" following two successful tests of being clear of the virus under the WHO reporting guidelines, as a result it is likely the recovered data is skewed. Updated on 15/04/20 - The WHO reporting criteria has been changed recently to eliminate the 2 test requirement before reporting as recovered, now an outcome report is sent within one month of initial notification or when an outcome is known, the available health outcomes are either “recovered/healthy”, “not recovered", “death", “unknown" or “other", weather this helps create more accurate recovery numbers or skews them further is yet to be seen.

*** Due to the above issue with reporting of recovered cases the number of active cases is also likely skewed.


Case increase averages:-

| Date | ▲Day 1 | ▲10 Days | ▲7 days | ▲3 Days | ■ Day 1 | ■ 10 Days | ■ 7 Days | ■ 3 days
| 29/02/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A
| 01/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A
| 02/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | 0% | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0%
| 03/03/2020 | 25.0% | N/A | N/A | 33% | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0%
| 04/03/2020 | 60.0% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 60% | N/A | N/A | 100%
| 05/03/2020 | 69.4% | N/A | N/A | 139% | 63% | N/A | N/A | 125%
| 06/03/2020 | 65.0% | N/A | 65% | 118% | 49% | N/A | 49% | 115%
| 07/03/2020 | 57.6% | N/A | 66% | 54% | 33% | N/A | 38% | -11%
| 08/03/2020 | 52.4% | N/A | 67% | 18% | 41% | N/A | 52% | -3%
| 09/03/2020 | 49% | 49% | 69% | 10% | 42% | 42% | 59% | 23%
| 10/03/2020 | 48% | 53% | 61% | 22% | 59% | 65% | 93% | 128%
| 11/03/2020 | 46% | 55% | 36% | 27% | 53% | 64% | 49% | 91%
| 12/03/2020 | 47% | 62% | 29% | 44% | 65% | 84% | 66% | 141%
| 13/03/2020 | 46% | 54% | 27% | 39% | 58% | 81% | 67% | 55%
| 14/03/2020 | 46% | 39% | 33% | 45% | 61% | 61% | 92% | 90%
| 15/03/2020 | 45% | 30% | 35% | 34% | 57% | 54% | 78% | 24%
| 16/03/2020 | 44% | 30% | 38% | 35% | 56% | 60% | 76% | 44%
| 17/03/2020 | 43% | 32% | 36% | 31% | 54% | 71% | 46% | 22%
| 18/03/2020 | 43% | 34% | 36% | 29% | 52% | 61% | 49% | 23%
| 19/03/2020 | 43% | 37% | 35% | 36% | 57% | 72% | 43% | 64%
| 20/03/2020 | 42% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 53% | 46% | 42% | 44%
| 21/03/2020 | 41% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 49% | 45% | 25% | 35%
| 22/03/2020 | 40% | 30% | 28% | 18% | 48% | 27% | 28% | -11%
| 23/03/2020 | 39% | 29% | 27% | 18% | 49% | 37% | 34% | 27%
| 24/03/2020 | 38% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 47% | 27% | 29% | 31%
| 25/03/2020 | 37% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 46% | 28% | 30% | 30%
| 26/03/2020 | 37% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 45% | 26% | 9% | 6%
| 27/03/2020 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 44% | 25% | 17% | 14%
| 28/03/2020 | 35% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 42% | 24% | 19% | 8%
| 29/03/2020 | 34% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 40% | 5% | 12% | -5%
| 30/03/2020 | 34% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 40% | 13% | 7% | 4%
| 31/03/2020 | 33% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 39% | 16% | 9% | 9%
| 01/04/2020 | 32% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 8%
| 02/04/2020 | 31% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 38% | 11% | 14% | 22%
| 03/04/2020 | 31% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 37% | 13% | 12% | 20%
| 04/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 36% | 9% | 9% | 24%
| 05/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 35% | 10% | 16% | 0%
| 06/04/2020 | 29% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 34% | 7% | 9% | -3%
| 07/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 33% | 7% | 6% | 2%
| 08/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 32% | 11% | 12% | -2%
| 09/04/2020 | 27% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 32% | 10% | 5% | 12%
| 10/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 37% | 29% | 33% | 82%
| 11/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 35% | 28% | 30% | 65%
| 12/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 34% | 18% | 25% | 48%
| 13/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 34% | 21% | 31% | -7%
| 14/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 33% | 21% | 30% | 2%
| 15/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 33% | 16%
| 16/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 31% | 20% | 23% | -7%
| 17/04/2020 | 25% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 30% | 20% | -6% | -2%
| 18/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 30% | 21% | 2% | -8%
| 19/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 29% | 13% | -2% | -10%
| 20/04/2020 | 23% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 28% | -9% | -10% | -15%

▲ = Daily case increase averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1
■ = Daily case reporting change averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1

---

Northern Ireland Statistics:-

| | | | | | | | | | | Population %
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.000%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.001%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.001%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.001%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.001%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.001%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.002%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.002%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.002%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.003%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.003%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.004%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.004%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.005%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.006%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.007%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.008%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.009%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.011%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.013%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.014%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.017%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.021%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.028%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.031%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.036%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.041%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.047%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.052%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.057%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.061%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.066%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.070%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.077%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.083%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.090%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.095%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.098%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.103%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.109%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.115%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.122%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.130%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.138%
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.143%

CFR = Case fatality rate

Source: The Public Health Agency for Northern Ireland.


Island of Ireland Statistics:-

| | | Island of Ireland Population %
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.000%
| | | 0.001%
| | | 0.001%
| | | 0.001%
| | | 0.001%
| | | 0.002%
| | | 0.002%
| | | 0.003%
| | | 0.004%
| | | 0.005%
| | | 0.006%
| | | 0.009%
| | | 0.011%
| | | 0.013%
| | | 0.015%
| | | 0.019%
| | | 0.022%
| | | 0.026%
| | | 0.030%
| | | 0.035%
| | | 0.040%
| | | 0.044%
| | | 0.050%
| | | 0.056%
| | | 0.061%
| | | 0.068%
| | | 0.076%
| | | 0.082%
| | | 0.089%
| | | 0.095%
| | | 0.102%
| | | 0.108%
| | | 0.118%
| | | 0.142%
| | | 0.156%
| | | 0.168%
| | | 0.183%
| | | 0.197%
| | | 0.214%
| | | 0.226%
| | | 0.239%
| | | 0.252%
| | | 0.262%
| | | 0.269%

---

World Statistics:-

|

cameramonkey wrote: »

What if all the Dublin deaths were in nursing homes and all the ones outside Dublin were in the community outside homes?

I think you need a more nuanced look at figures before any moves are made.

The figures for deaths in hospitals would indicate that the virus is under control in the community...only 1 hospital death today (per the press briefing)...each of the preceding 4 days hospital deaths were in the 14 to 18 range.

The number of corona virus deaths as a stat are reliant on how transparent they are being reported.

I believe we are reporting them accurately. other countries are choosing to ignore the nursing home deaths in their audit.
The next question is how well or not well we are doing.

I think we are performing middle of the class in terms of global figures. We could and should be doing better. We are a well educated nation and should keep our heads down until the first quarantine is over. I say the first one as there will be many more over the next 15 months.
The idea of flattening the curve was not something the gov. made up for the craic. They are being constantly advised by the WHO. and people who have ran models on the spread of the virus.

It really is legislating for the best worst case scenario. Unfortunately.

Had we done what we were told, our numbers would be lower at the end of quarantine one. That would mean that the exponential growth of numbers would be much lower when people return to work and infections start to spread again.
As it stands, we are looking at high numbers from when we go back to work through to the next quarantine. And thereafter.

The trick would be to either get the virus and recover in the hope that you don't get too sick, as the hospitals are not going to be able to cope.
Or that you avoid getting the virus, or sick at all for that mater, while at the same time, going about your work business when the economy reopens.

Staying at home indefinitely is not an option for any countries economy, and this is not putting money before people's well being, it is making sure the basics are provided in spite of the covid pandemic.

Hopes for the future before the vaccine would include...

Better and more rapid treatment of symptoms, that would ideally be administered from home rather than hospital.
A more honest attempt by the public to use social distancing measures.
A willingness of the public to stay at home rather than partake in non essential activities.
Protection of the elderly which would involve their total isolation from contact with the general population.

Fair play to nurses standing up to Trumptards in the US.











https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/health-care-workers-took-stand-against-protestors-opposing-coronavirus-lockdown-n1187711

MipMap wrote: »

Trying to get to grips with this. Up to yesterday the line was that 52% of deaths occurred in residential settings. Looking at the press conference

3:41 In the woman gave the numbers:


https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1rmxPAQMoEZKN


406 deaths In Long Term Residential Settings of which 337 occurred in nursing homes.


The numbers break down as LTRC - Lab Confirmed 327 and 77 suspected giving 406 in total.


Nursing Homes 276 Confirmed plus 61 suspected giving 337 in total.
As I understand it the Nursing Home numbers are part of the LTRC totals.


This means the percentage is 59% not 88%.



Still really shocking.

Thanks, I listened back to to it and I think your figures are correct and make more sense. I think the way it was said it sounded like LTRC was 406 and Nursing Homes was 337, but it would make sense that the nursing homes are included in the LTRC total.
I'll correct the post.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Fair play to nurses standing up to Trumptards in the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ACmlM2M39o

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/health-care-workers-took-stand-against-protestors-opposing-coronavirus-lockdown-n1187711

Maybe your wan in the silver jeep should do a stint in ICU with covid patients and she might shut up roaring about the land of the free then.

I wonder how many of these "Covid deaths" are from people dying with it rather than of it.

If the primary cause of death was COPD or heart disease but the person also had Covid are they included in the Covid death figures?

moonage wrote: »

I wonder how many of these "Covid deaths" are from people dying with it rather than of it.

If the primary cause of death was COPD or heart disease but the person also had Covid are they included in the Covid death figures?

They are of course included in the figures. In NYC people who didn't test positive for covid were included in the figures merely for having URTI-like symptoms - despite that URTIs are the biggest killer of the elderly and very infirm in the world.

growleaves wrote: »

I've never such an insistence on direct cause-and-effect for complex medical phenomena.

Is every case of coronavirus directly attributable to political and social policies, their timing and implementation?

Yes.

easypazz wrote: »

Deaths are not increasing though.

You've mentioned this several times.

Your language is so vague / inaccurate it is irritating.

We have 687 deaths notified as of today.

The total deaths will continue to increase.

The acceleration in the rate of the increase in deaths might be slowing - or not - it is very hard to tell with the reporting rates.

Even if the acceleration slows, the number of deaths is still increasing!!

I think 687 deaths is an awful lot to be honest for the size of our country and is a post-fact indication that something was/is still now going wrong - unfortunately it points to the nursing home sector.