Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

growleaves · 20-04-2020 07:20PM

Can we have a Judgement at Nuremberg-style trial for the Cheltenham criminals?

Hobgoblin11 · 20-04-2020 07:21PM

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

I wouldn't mind 'teaching' you a few home truths in real life.

The trends aren't. One day of lower cases doesn't make a trend. Deaths have averaged around 40 a day for the last 10 days.

You have no trends, you have no heart, you have nothing. One thing you have is the luck I'm not facing you at this moment in time.

it's a shame you would be so hard to track down Michael Dwyer

cameramonkey · 20-04-2020 07:21PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So looking at that graph, whatever case may be made for an easing of the restrictions in many parts of the country after 5th May, I think Dublin and surrounding counties will have to remain with current restrictions in place for at least another few weeks after that date. Even taking into account the population difference the contrast in reported deaths between the East and the rest of the country is literally off the scale.

What if all the Dublin deaths were in nursing homes and all the ones outside Dublin were in the community outside homes?

I think you need a more nuanced look at figures before any moves are made.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 07:21PM

bfa1509 wrote: »

Very true. I didn't consider this. Did Italy report non-hospital deaths? I'm not sure.

Northern Italy was overwhelmed I suspect, a lot of people died at home. Don't know how they reported that, I imagine their figures are not very accurate right now - remember the scenes of rows of army trucks transporting corpses?

Spain definitely is not correct. There was seriously shocking scenes in a few nursing homes where the staff had fled/not turned up for work, and the residents had died.

Thankfully we never got to the point of being overwhelmed.

The US figures are probably accurate, but they are at an early point of their epidemic for much of the country.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 07:23PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

What if all the Dublin deaths were in nursing homes and all the ones outside Dublin were in the community outside homes?

Yep. I never liked the strategy of cocooning the elderly and vulnerable only, and letting younger people go back to work, but increasingly it looks like it might not be an entirely bad idea.

Doctors room ghost · 20-04-2020 07:24PM

The crazy thing I can’t get my head around is the fact that cheltenham was cancelled due to foot and mouth in respect of the agricultural sector even though it doesn’t affect horses and all vehicles etc at the time could have been disinfected.
But it went ahead this year despite the threat to human life from covid.
A fcukin disaster allowed to go ahead.
Idiotic

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 07:25PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

This is immunisation week

hmmm · 20-04-2020 07:25PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Cheltenham crowd are just wastes of skin and space. Incredible selfishness and incredible stupidity rolled into one.

Very few of our infections can be traced to Cheltenham, and that area has the lowest percentage of cases in the UK.

So can we stop going out about it now in a search for scapegoats?

Much more of our cases can be traced to holidays abroad, and most of them were just families doing what they do every year not realising the risk.

lbj666 · 20-04-2020 07:26PM

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

I wouldn't mind 'teaching' you a few home truths in real life.

The trends aren't. One day of lower cases doesn't make a trend. Deaths have averaged around 40 a day for the last 10 days.

You have no trends, you have no heart, you have nothing. One thing you have is the luck I'm not facing you at this moment in time.

So you are saying the curve has flattened so?
The fact that you assume the worst in the people commenting here, means i dont want to have to face you either.

ninebeanrows · 20-04-2020 07:26PM

there now paying you 13$ to take their oil in USA

Doctors room ghost · 20-04-2020 07:27PM

hmmm wrote: »

Very few of our infections can be traced to Cheltenham, and that area has the lowest percentage of cases in the UK.

So can we stop going out about it now in a search for scapegoats?

Much more of our cases can be traced to holidays abroad, and most of them were just families doing what they do every year not realising the risk.

There was several cases confirmed in cheltenham the week before the races but it went ahead regardless

Ficheall · 20-04-2020 07:27PM

Where can one find the hospitalized/ICU numbers for today and previous days?

stephenjmcd · 20-04-2020 07:27PM

Just read through the last few pages of posters saying 77 is an awful number for the last few days. It's an awful number yes.

If anyone had of watched the press conference there was a graph shown, some of the deaths being reported today occurred at the start of April, it's not 77 just today or the last few days. Theres quite clearly a lag in the reporting of deaths.

The all deaths notified graph based on day of death is on a downward trend.

Some posters need to watch the press conference and look at the information given out before coming to conclusions

joe_99 · 20-04-2020 07:29PM

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

You know what you are. Must be hard to live with cowardice.

Whenever I pop into this thread you seem to be attempting to start a fight with someone.

JDD · 20-04-2020 07:31PM

So 77 deaths reported today, but clearly only a portion of those actually died in the last 24 hours.

Is there anywhere you can get the deaths for each day as they occurred? I’m beginning to suspect that government are holding back figures in order to release them strategically when they feel people are beginning to strain against the restrictions.

lbj666 · 20-04-2020 07:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just read through the last few pages of posters saying 77 is an awful number for the last few days. It's an awful number yes.

If anyone had of watched the press conference there was a graph shown, some of the deaths being reported today occurred at the start of April, it's not 77 just today or the last few days. Theres quite clearly a lag in the reporting of deaths.

The all deaths notified graph based on day of death is on a downward trend.

Some posters need to watch the press conference and look at the information given out before coming to conclusions

Agreed but we cant look into it too much, especially for the past 2 weeks.

Michael Dwyer · 20-04-2020 07:31PM

growleaves wrote: »

Tony Holohan will pin a medal on your chest. Bravery in the face of invisible enemies.

Who'd want a medal from him? Is Tony your hero

Michael Dwyer · 20-04-2020 07:32PM

joe_99 wrote: »

Whenever I pop into this thread you seem to be attempting to start a fight with someone.

Well maybe read a few posts back for context?

lbj666 · 20-04-2020 07:33PM

JDD wrote: »

So 77 deaths reported today, but clearly only a portion of those actually died in the last 24 hours.

Is there anywhere you can get the deaths for each day as they occurred? I’m beginning to suspect that government are holding back figures in order to release them strategically when they feel people are beginning to strain against the restrictions.

They dont want people to make a their own judgement on them they would still be waiting on near final numbers for the past week or two. It will always show a decline. At the min we would only give a reliable indicator from early april or before it.

fred funk }{ · 20-04-2020 07:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The r value is now starting to drop lower and faster than previous, with a rate of 1.026 for today, and a 7 day rate of 1.057. The 5 day rate of 1.045 is better again too. This shows that we are almost at the peak and have effectively avoided a large scale surge in cases.

I thought during the press conference last week, the guy in charge of the modeling said that the reproduction rate was somewhere between 0.7 and 1.0?

stephenjmcd · 20-04-2020 07:33PM

JDD wrote: »

So 77 deaths reported today, but clearly only a portion of those actually died in the last 24 hours.

Is there anywhere you can get the deaths for each day as they occurred? I’m beginning to suspect that government are holding back figures in order to release them strategically when they feel people are beginning to strain against the restrictions.

They're not holding anything back. In Ireland you've ages to report a cause of death. They're looking to get it changed to limit the time that a cause has to be reported. We're one of the only countries actually reporting nursing home and care home deaths

It's all covered in the press conference which you can watch back

stephenjmcd · 20-04-2020 07:36PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Agreed but we cant look into it too much, especially for the past 2 weeks.

Again the CMO did reference this, this evening.

But that we are reporting all deaths as soon as notified.

I've said since the start the indicators I've used as ICU and hopsital numbers and now with the test backlog cleared it might be possible to take something out of the test numbers

lalababa · 20-04-2020 07:37PM

Are most of the deaths nursing home residents? And hospital patients ?
The mean age of 69 and median age of 83/4 are very high.
Now there's 2 types of median.
The "median age" number may be referred to as the age where half of the people are older than this number and half are younger.
And the "median of age" refers to the (highest age minus the lowest age) divided by 2 and added to the lowest.

JDD · 20-04-2020 07:37PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Agreed but we cant look into it too much, especially for the past 2 weeks.

I have to say, while generally approving the job the gov/HSE have done so far, the publication of figures has really annoyed me. When that article came out in the Irish Times about our deaths peaking on April 6, the HSE came out to say it was based on flawed info and research, and promptly published a record number of deaths that day as if to prove the report wrong. Now they’re saying that our death rate probably did indeed peak on April 7.

I don’t like being so blatantly manipulated.

10000maniacs · 20-04-2020 07:41PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

They hide behind all kinds of spin but they knew exactly what they where doing.

As Lester Piggott once said "Punters are stupid bastards, aren't they?"

hmmm · 20-04-2020 07:41PM

JDD wrote: »

I don’t like being so blatantly manipulated.

There is no manipulation, they're publishing the deaths as they become aware of them. They've asked for less time between death and it being reported.

coastwatch · 20-04-2020 07:42PM

Another stat from today's briefing, of the covid confirmed deaths to date, 406 have been people from either nursing homes or long term residential care homes, thats 59% of all covid confirmed deaths.

timsey tiger · 20-04-2020 07:43PM

JDD wrote: »

So 77 deaths reported today, but clearly only a portion of those actually died in the last 24 hours.

Is there anywhere you can get the deaths for each day as they occurred? I’m beginning to suspect that government are holding back figures in order to release them strategically when they feel people are beginning to strain against the restrictions.

There was such a graph published by HSE a few days ago, the problem with such a graph is that by it's nature it can't be complete.

But, wow, are you responsible for the shortage of aluminium foil. Just look at the spike in confirmed cases in the graph a few pages back, a spike in deaths is unfortunately a consequence of this.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 07:43PM

Ah cool, Stockholm antibody test results due this evening - this will be interesting.

Swedish authorities seem to be hoping for 30 to 50% infection rates, and basing their strategy on this.

bsloepro · 20-04-2020 07:44PM

Are nursing homes supposed to be restricting access? There’s a HSE run nursing home across the road from my house, and there is people coming and going all day as per usual. Families. Doesn’t look like staff.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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