The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

Hmmzis · 19-04-2020 8:50pm

In regards to antibody testing. WHO are advising against using the quick and cheap fiels tests, citing the abysmal accuracy of them. They do recomend doing antibody testing, only with proper lab equipment that provides high spcificity and sensitivity. As doing so would provide a better understanding of the extent of the spread.

My google feed is now spammed with news sites on the topic, there was a WHO link on their site explaining their reasoning.

ShineOn7 · 19-04-2020 9:03pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

... WHO are advising ...

I've gone from trusting everything they said early on in this (they're WHO after all), to now doing the opposite

PommieBast · 19-04-2020 9:30pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've gone from trusting everything they said early on in this (they're WHO after all), to now doing the opposite

I still trust what they say about pharmacology but that is about it. Tedros Adhanom has to go.

Jurgen Klopp · 19-04-2020 9:34pm

The fact WHO will not allow Taiwan to become a member tells you all you need to know about who influences them

Cordell · 20-04-2020 12:09pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I still trust what they say about pharmacology but that is about it. Tedros Adhanom has to go.

He shouldn't have been there in the first place, nothing recommends him for the position and his track record so far have been questionable to say the least.
He also appointed Robert Mugabe to some ambassador position for WHO.

Cordell · 20-04-2020 12:14pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The median figure almost always gives a more accurate picture in statistics. It removes the effect of rare, but extreme, outliers that otherwise play a huge role in the 'mean' figure.

https://www.diffen.com/difference/Mean_vs_Median

This can't be repeated often enough - for anything natural, from the life expectancy to the size of your potatoes, the median is the relevant measure, not the mean/average.

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 1:57pm

New Dutch Serology study shows the Infection Fatality rate in the various age groups

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 2:14pm

Another comparative serology study here suggests the overall Infection Fatality Rate in Denmark to be 0.21% and significantly lower in Scotland and Finland

https://covmodel.org/2020/04/17/sars-cov-2-preliminary-serology-test-reports-from-scotland-denmark-and-finland-give-contradictory-results-on-infection-fatality-ratio/

yosemitesam1 · 20-04-2020 3:26pm

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Cordell · 20-04-2020 3:39pm

You don't need statistics, you just need to see the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy. It's not as bad as originally thought statistically speaking, but in real life terms, it's as bad as it always was.

YakerK · 20-04-2020 4:01pm

Cordell wrote: »

You don't need statistics, you just need to see the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy. It's not as bad as originally thought statistically speaking, but in real life terms, it's as bad as it always was.

Avoiding Italy's outcome is obviously the objective, but the statistics tell us what we need to do to avoid that. If (and it's a big if) they are as some of the previous posts suggests, what we need to do is a lot less then we'd feared.

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 4:26pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Because I don't think Ireland's figures are reflecting that. This is not a one size fits all thing

Our R0 is now at 0.7, if we lift restrictions you can sure that'll rise to R0 of 2 or worse

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 4:31pm

normanoffside wrote: »

New Dutch Serology study shows the Infection Fatality rate in the various age groups

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

Encouraging numbers, but every country seems to be different in this. Things like older demographic etc come into it

Where is Ireland's fatality rate at the moment % wise? Last I read (about ten days ago) it was at 4% which is far, far too high

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 4:32pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Because, it doesnt really matter at all what the antibody tests say if the virus still causes collapse of the healthcare system when uncontrolled, which it has done in numerous examples of countries with highly advanced healthcare infrastructure and continues to do so with recent announcements in Tokyo and Moscow that hospital beds are approaching capacity, just days after an epidemic was uncovered

YakerK · 20-04-2020 4:51pm

Behind a paywall - but the FTs live feed suggesting that WHO are reporting that only 3% of people have had Covid in worst effected areas. Quite inconsistent with what some of the other reports posted here are saying and quite a lot more negative an outlook if true.

https://www.ft.com/content/853e3929-1810-33f5-9974-ef5286e0f909

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 4:53pm

YakerK wrote: »

Behind a paywall - but the FTs live feed suggesting that WHO are reporting that only 3% of people have had Covid in worst effected areas. Quite inconsistent with what some of the other reports posted here are saying and quite a lot more negative an outlook if true.

https://www.ft.com/content/853e3929-1810-33f5-9974-ef5286e0f909

"WHO study indicates"

That's where I lost interest

YakerK · 20-04-2020 4:59pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"WHO study indicates"

That's where I lost interest

You lost interest because it came from WHO? are you sure you were interested in actual science in the first place?

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 5:02pm

YakerK wrote: »

You lost interest because it came from WHO? are you sure you were interested in actual science in the first place?

You do realise how badly WHO have fúcked this up right?

And that they're China's mouthpiece?

YakerK · 20-04-2020 5:04pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

You do realise how badly WHO have fúcked this up right?

And that they're China's mouthpiece?

Conspiracy theories is a different forum. Besides, even if I accepted that as true, it doesn't impact on the validity of the study.

briany · 20-04-2020 5:05pm

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

Hmmzis · 20-04-2020 5:28pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

The studies show how frighteningly contagious this thing really is. It basically makes everyone sick at almost the same time. Therefore even with a much lower IFR than previously thought it's still as dangerous as before as it can swamp any healthcare system in short order.

It also explains why even the Koreans are struggling to contain it and almost anywhere else only lockdowns are capable of diminishing the initial blow (with varying success rates).

The silver lining to this would be that even if there is only short term immunity against it, it should be starting to run into itself much sooner than predicted. At that point we'll know how good/bad acquired immunity is and if we will even need a vaccine or if there will be anyone left to give it to (or a virus left to use it against).

Hmmzis · 20-04-2020 5:37pm

briany wrote: »

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

I'm afraid the Spanish flu has nothing on this pathogen when it comes the raw contagiousness.
One serological study after another is starting to point that way.

IAMAMORON · 20-04-2020 5:38pm

briany wrote: »

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

I think the country was fundamentally different in 1918.

One of the biggest factors in Spanish flu was the return of Irish soldiers from the frontline. This brought the flu to every corner of the country. To compound this times were very hard and it was rough

I have no issue with stating that we have better treatments and medical facility now also, this is a no brainer.

There are also large arguments around the nutrition values of diet, especially with returning soldiers but also with poorer sections of Irish society. The flu came only 4 years after the Dublin lockout, people were poor and malnourished. My Grandmother told me she often went without shoes, different times and different circumstances.

To answer your suggestion on Herd immunity we missed our chance to implement such a strategy at the start of the outbreak. It is a very risky strategy when attempting to scupper the spread of a virus. But you can only try it when the virus is in its' infancy and early wave. Implementing a herd immunity strategy now would be madness as we already have widespread infections.

Blut2 · 20-04-2020 5:43pm

Some more maths for Ireland here:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/041fd1-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/

“Between our Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment, those on the Live Register and workers who are benefitting from the wage subsidy scheme, over a million people are receiving some sort of state income support – a situation unparalleled in our nation’s history.

"Over a million" adults, out of our working population of 2.3 million, are now receiving unemployment payments. Thats an unemployment rate of 43%.

Our highest unemployment rate during the last recession was 16%, for reference.

This is pretty horrifying. The economy is going to be completely destroyed if this lockdown goes on much longer.

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 6:08pm

The above from Reddit

Zoomable version https://i.redd.it/lfjsg92pjxt41.jpg

Notes:
The data presented here is heavily dependent on the testing rate and is not necessarily linearly proportional to the actual number of cases we have.

The "Day" number signifies days since the first confirmed case.

Take any fitted trends with a pinch of salt. As shown, there are spikes and dips in the daily cases due to both random variation and testing. e.g. Day 40 is when we received results back from a lab in Germany, hence the large spike. This can affect the accuracy of the fitted trend.

But either way, the lockdown is working. Let's keep it up, we're not out of trouble just yet, but it looks promising. Stay home, lads, stay safe

20-04-2020 6:10pm

I didn't give an update on Friday as planned as I thought it was better to wait until the promised clearing of the back log occurred. Thats happened now and we are more-or-less in a real-time reporting state from this point on which is fantastic.

There have been a further 77 deaths and 401 new cases reported for a total of 15,652 cases.

The r value is now starting to drop lower and faster than previous, with a rate of 1.026 for today, and a 7 day rate of 1.057. The 5 day rate of 1.045 is better again too. This shows that we are almost at the peak and have effectively avoided a large scale surge in cases.

The next 2 charts show the current situation and a projection out 14 days. The next 4-5 days will tell a lot in terms of dropping below an r value of 1 and will have a big effect on both of these charts in terms of overall cases and daily reported cases.

Lastly, the county by county breakdown. I'm honestly baffled by Cavan. It has the 2nd highest rate per 10k population after Dublin. I'm sure there is some valid explanation for it but it is strange to see it so high.

Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Leinster Dublin 7,666 57 1,347,359 1,459.20
Ulster Cavan 401 53 76,176 39.3
Leinster Westmeath 369 42 88,770 48.2
Leinster Kildare 817 37 222,504 131
Leinster Louth 437 34 128,884 155.4
Leinster Wicklow 444 31 142,425 70.2
Ulster Monaghan 187 30 61,386 47.3
Leinster Meath 513 26 195,044 83.2
Connacht Mayo 332 25 130,507 23.3
Leinster Offaly 190 24 77,961 38.9
Ulster Donegal 383 24 159,192 32.6
Leinster Longford 91 22 40,873 37.4
Leinster Kilkenny 206 21 99,232 47.8
Munster Limerick 401 21 194,899 70.8
Leinster Laois 170 20 84,697 49.3
Munster Cork 1047 19 542,868 72.3
Munster Tipperary 300 19 159,553 37.2
Munster Kerry 268 18 147,707 30.7
Connacht Leitrim 49 15 32,044 20.1
Connacht Roscommon 91 14 64,544 25.3
Leinster Carlow 78 14 56,932 63.4
Munster Clare 160 13 118,817 34.4
Connacht Sligo 78 12 65,535 35.5
Connacht Galway 294 11 258,058 42
Munster Waterford 113 10 116,176 62.7
Leinster Wexford 100 7 149,722 63.2

In summary, it looks like we are finally turning a corner on this but its still not clear at what speed we will get around that corner. My hope is that we would start to see the r value drop below 1 by next weekend but as I mentioned earlier, the next few days will tell a lot given that it'll be the first time we'll be see the case number in almost real-time.

Whatever happens, don't expect the lockdown to be lifted any time soon. To put things into context;

Ireland identified its first case on Feb 29
Passed 10 cases on 05-Mar, 5 days later.
Took another 3 days for the next 10.
Schools, colleges and childcare facilities instructed to close on 12-Mar
27 new cases reported on that day
Passed 100 cases on 14-Mar, 9 days later.
Took 2 days for the next 100.
Passed 1,000 cases on 23-Mar, 9 days later.
Took another 4 days to break the next 1,000 mark
Stay at home instruction to the population on 27-Mar
302 cases reported that day
Passed 10,000 cases on 13-Apr, 21 days later.
Likely to break the next 10,000 before Sunday

While we may start to see the daily case numbers dropping, it'll be a while before they get low enough to be at a safe level.

Finally, the modelling data presented on 16-Apr suggests that there are modifications required to the released data but updated data has not been released outside of this presentation. If it gets released, I'll update everything accordingly.

IAMAMORON · 20-04-2020 6:12pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Some more maths for Ireland here:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/041fd1-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/

"Over a million" adults, out of our working population of 2.3 million, are now receiving unemployment payments. Thats an unemployment rate of 43%.

Our highest unemployment rate during the last recession was 16%, for reference.

This is pretty horrifying. The economy is going to be completely destroyed if this lockdown goes on much longer.

Destroyed how?

Are you not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore? Are you going to give up your trips to the hairdresser? Forfeit your annual holiday? Are you going to stop putting petrol in your car?

I reckon it bounces back like a pumped up ball off a wall if I am honest. People need to understand this. There will be a recession but nothing like the credit crunch, the circumstances are contrasting for starters.

Blut2 · 20-04-2020 6:53pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Destroyed how?

Are you not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore? Are you going to give up your trips to the hairdresser? Forfeit your annual holiday? Are you going to stop putting petrol in your car?

I reckon it bounces back like a pumped up ball off a wall if I am honest. People need to understand this. There will be a recession but nothing like the credit crunch, the circumstances are contrasting for starters.

Destroyed....financially? Economically? What effect do you think 43% unemployment will have on government finances? Ireland has an adult population of about 3.75 million. The above means we now have “over a million” adults on unemployment support. Plus ~700k adults on the public pension. Plus 350k adults are public servants – gardai, teachers etc. That means there are now significantly less people paying tax from private sector jobs, than there are people being paid directly by the state. How do you think the maths on that are going to work out?

An unemployed person is absolutely not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore etc. There isn't much life to be lived on 200euro a week on the dole.

A huge chunk of these jobs lost are not temporary job losses. How many businesses just aren't going to reopen, like Debenhams? And how many of those businesses that are going to reopen will rehire 100% of their staff?

Thats also assuming businesses are going to be allowed to reopen any time soon. For the 5% of Irish people who work in tourism for example its unlikely the vast majority of them will be in work any time in the medium term.

yosemitesam1 · 20-04-2020 7:27pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

The studies show how frighteningly contagious this thing really is. It basically makes everyone sick at almost the same time. Therefore even with a much lower IFR than previously thought it's still as dangerous as before as it can swamp any healthcare system in short order.

It also explains why even the Koreans are struggling to contain it and almost anywhere else only lockdowns are capable of diminishing the initial blow (with varying success rates).

The silver lining to this would be that even if there is only short term immunity against it, it should be starting to run into itself much sooner than predicted. At that point we'll know how good/bad acquired immunity is and if we will even need a vaccine or if there will be anyone left to give it to (or a virus left to use it against).

The antibody surveys are showing it's travelled more than 10 times further than testing suggests. So hospitalisation rate is a maximum of 10% of what was originally modelled.
The flu has a hospitalisation rate of 1%, the original covid 19 figure was what about 12-15%?
Even allowing for a larger percentage of the population getting infected, with all the extra capacity built in the last few weeks surely we are much closer to being able to cope (if not already) with building herd immunity naturally?

IAMAMORON · 20-04-2020 7:38pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Destroyed....financially? Economically? What effect do you think 43% unemployment will have on government finances? Ireland has an adult population of about 3.75 million. The above means we now have “over a million” adults on unemployment support. Plus ~700k adults on the public pension. Plus 350k adults are public servants – gardai, teachers etc. That means there are now significantly less people paying tax from private sector jobs, than there are people being paid directly by the state. How do you think the maths on that are going to work out?

An unemployed person is absolutely not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore etc. There isn't much life to be lived on 200euro a week on the dole.

A huge chunk of these jobs lost are not temporary job losses. How many businesses just aren't going to reopen, like Debenhams? And how many of those businesses that are going to reopen will rehire 100% of their staff?

Thats also assuming businesses are going to be allowed to reopen any time soon. For the 5% of Irish people who work in tourism for example its unlikely the vast majority of them will be in work any time in the medium term.

Debenhams were always closing. There is also an entire argument still to be had over the future of the high street.

But McDonalds will not be going bust, and people still eat out if they are on the dole.

Tourism will struggle for sure. But it will recover.

This differs to the credit crunch because prior to the property crash we had a debt problem insofar as the banks were propping up all the spending and then turned off the taps suddenly. This shut down has come about for different reasons. Some people will lose jobs, but there will also be a rebound. Companies will also be looking to achieve their targets. It is likely they will use this as an opportunity to shuffle staff, but they will need to employ people in certain areas to achieve desired productivity.

If you really want to have an economic crank I would be looking at the long term survival of the high street or for financial services employees. The computer is winning both these particular games. The banks do not need half the staff anymore. Their long term model is computerisation. This is not virus related however and was always coming down the line. Banks may use the crisis to validate redundancies they had always been planning, other firms too.

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 8:19pm

From the Reddit user who digests all the daily Irish stats and updates into one easy read

_____________________

New Cases: 401 Germany: N/A
Total Cases: 15652
New Death: 77
Total Deaths: 687
Male: 31
Female: 42 * waiting for info on 4 of cases
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 54

Deaths: 687
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 348
Died in ICU: 45
Underlying conditions: 564
Male: 377
Female: 306
Median age: 83
Mean age: 69 Range: 23-105

Of 307 in ICU

Remain in hospital: 152 (50% - slight reduction)
Discharged: 109 (36% - slight reduction)
Died: 45
Underlying conditions: 252 (80%)
Median Age: 60

As of Saturday 18th

Cases: 15185
In Hospital: 2272 (15% - slight reduction)
In ICU: 306
Deaths: 642
Clusters: 478
Account for 3139 cases
Median age infected: 46
Healthcare workers: 26%

Clusters
Residential Homes: 1171
Nursing Homes: 1204
Death Nursing Homes: 337
Deaths Residential:406
Nursing Homes

Lab confirmed in Residential: 329
Probable or Suspect cases in Residential: 77
Lab confirmed in Nursing homes: 276
Probable or Suspect cases in Nursing homes: 61
Census commenced over the weekend - intellectual disability, mental health, disability, nursing homes
Hope to have further information back on mortality on next few days
Gives a stronger idea about the pattern of disease in these settings

Questions

No update on vaccine
All of these deaths did not occur overnight, or even in the same period - has to be notified to relative public health department, who then puts it onto a computerised infections disease database, and then a report
Largest number of deaths on a given day is 18
There is a lag time, so can't be certain those are the totals for every day, because the process of notifying is not complete
Change in percentage growth on deaths in a given day is falling.
More solid update on Thursday when Philip Nolan is present
Nursing homes Oxygen is available, you need to contact the health authority

Jurgen Klopp · 20-04-2020 10:25pm

You know I went back to the Diamond Princess study there just out of interest, I found a breakdown of the number of people aboard by age group as well as the numbers that were asymptomatic or had systems

Just double checked and it's still 13 deaths out of 3,711 aboard total

That's 0.35%

What's more interesting tho the high concentration of older age groups, not just from a deaths perspective but also the asymptomatic,

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 10:31pm

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

You know I went back to the Diamond Princess study there just out of interest, I found a breakdown of the number of people aboard by age group as well as the numbers that were asymptomatic or had systems

Just double checked and it's still 13 deaths out of 3,711 aboard total

That's 0.35%

What's more interesting tho the high concentration of older age groups, not just from a deaths perspective but also the asymptomatic,

Its 14 deaths, and not everyone on board was infected. Total infected is 785.
Diamon Princess statistics are 13 dead and 712 infected but those numbers dont include one death of an Australian who died in Japan and 73 other repatriated citizens.

Diamond Princess: Cases are not included in the Japanese government’s official count. 380 of the 712 were asymptomatic. 14 are U.S. citizens whose test results weren’t known until they left the ship. The total does not include 3 employees of Japan’s Health Ministry and 1 staff member of Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat, all of whom were infected while working on the ship. It does also not include people who tested positive upon their return home: 45 in the U.S., 10 in Australia (one of whom died), 4 in the UK, 5 in Hong Kong, 3 in Israel, and 2 in Japan.

BNO news

So mortality rate on the ship is 14/785 =1.78%

7 remain in ICU, with 55 cases still active.

It is interesting and strange that the rate of asymptomatic patients doesnt appear to be any higher among the older infected than the younger ones, on the ship at least.

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 10:53pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Its 14 deaths, and not everyone on board was infected. Total infected is 785.
Diamon Princess statistics are 13 dead and 712 infected but those numbers dont include one death of an Australian who died in Japan and 73 other repatriated citizens.

Infected at the time of testing....how do you know the others hadn’t been infected (and recovered) before testing?
Seems likely in a crowded environment like a cruise ship.

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 10:55pm

Off the back of the previous- are there also people who are just not prone to infection from this for one reason or another?
Maybe it requires an extremely high viral load for them to be infected or have some natural genetic immunity?

Van.Bosch · 20-04-2020 10:56pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Some more maths for Ireland here:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/041fd1-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/

"Over a million" adults, out of our working population of 2.3 million, are now receiving unemployment payments. Thats an unemployment rate of 43%.

Our highest unemployment rate during the last recession was 16%, for reference.

This is pretty horrifying. The economy is going to be completely destroyed if this lockdown goes on much longer.

Unemployment isn’t 43%. People who are working 2 day weeks or 3 day weeks are in that figure, they’re not unemployed.

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 10:58pm

normanoffside wrote: »

Infected at the time of testing....how do you know the others hadn’t been infected (and recovered) before testing?
Seems likely in a crowded environment like a cruise ship.

Patient zero borded the ship 17 days before every passenger on board was tested. Its very unlikely anyone would have gone through the entire incubation and recovery period in that time and tested negative.

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 11:01pm

wakka12 wrote: »

All passengers were tested within 17 days of patient zero being found. Its very unlikely anyone would have gone through the entire incubation and recovery period in that time and tested negative.

But surely when patient zero was found he/she had already been infecting people?

Also it doesn’t incubate for a week in everyone. I know someone who presented symptoms after 3-4 days of infection (through contact tracing) and was full recovered 5 days after that.

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 11:06pm

normanoffside wrote: »

But surely when patient zero was found he/she had already been infecting people?

Also it doesn’t incubate for a week in everyone. I know someone who presented symptoms after 3-4 days of infection (through contact tracing) and was full recovered 5 days after that.

Emphasis on some people. Average incubation period is longer than that, as is recovery period.Also, recovered and testing negative are different things, nobody will test negative after 5 days even if not showing any symptoms. Average clinical recovery time in mild cases is 2 weeks, 4-6 weeks in severe cases.

Anyway 17 days is absolute longest time between contact with patient zero occurred and being tested that anyone could possibly experienced in this scenario. The vast majority did not become infected immediately upon patient zero entering, and also the vast majority were tested before the 17 day period ended.

Likely extremely few slipped between the cracks here in reality, and certainly not enough to have any large impact on the overally mortality rate

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 11:11pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Emphasis on some people. Average incubation period is longer than that, as is recovery period.Also, recovered and testing negative are different things, nobody will test negative after 5 days even if not showing any symptoms.

You mean after 5 days of showing symptoms? Or 5 days after recovering from symptoms? Possibly, not definitely in both cases and from the experiences I know of.

Also I would imagine that asymptomatic carriers would ‘beat it’ much quicker.

On all points, more research is needed.

Jurgen Klopp · 20-04-2020 11:12pm

Wow, just wow, following straight after the Santa Clara study. This is LA County this time

Hundreds Of Thousands In LA Infected With Coronavirus: Study

https://www.google.com/amp/s/patch.com/california/los-angeles/amp/28703719/hundreds-thousands-la-infected-coronavirus-study

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 11:13pm

normanoffside wrote: »

You mean after 5 days of showing symptoms? Or 5 days after recovering from symptoms? Possibly, not definitely in both cases and from the experiences I know of.

Also I would imagine that asymptomatic carriers would ‘beat it’ much quicker.

On all points, more research is needed.

I mean 5 days after recovering from symptoms. They will still not be considered 'clinically recovered' in hospital as they will still test positive for around 2 weeks even though they no longer feel ill

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 11:16pm

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Wow, just wow, following straight after the Santa Clara study. This is LA County this time

https://www.google.com/amp/s/patch.com/california/los-angeles/amp/28703719/hundreds-thousands-la-infected-coronavirus-study

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

It definitely spreads like wildfire that’s for sure.

normanoffside · 20-04-2020 11:18pm

wakka12 wrote: »

I mean 5 days after recovering from symptoms. They will still not be considered 'clinically recovered' in hospital as they will still test positive for around 2 weeks even though they no longer feel ill

Yeah but that’s people in hospital.
You don’t know it’s the case for very mild or asymptomatic cases.

As i said, more research needed.

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 11:18pm

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Wow, just wow, following straight after the Santa Clara study. This is LA County this time

https://www.google.com/amp/s/patch.com/california/los-angeles/amp/28703719/hundreds-thousands-la-infected-coronavirus-study

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

The fact it arrived at a very similar figure to the Santa clara study is very encouraging

niallo27 · 20-04-2020 11:22pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Patient zero borded the ship 17 days before every passenger on board was tested. Its very unlikely anyone would have gone through the entire incubation and recovery period in that time and tested negative.

Do they know who patient zero was, its impossible to know who it was and when it the virus first appeared on the cruise.

Jurgen Klopp · 20-04-2020 11:23pm

Actually did anyone see the CMO this evening saying they not believe the R number was actually 4 or 5 when they initially thought it started at 2.4/2.6

At the beginning of the epidemic, it was thought that the reproductive rate of the new coronavirus, or the ‘R naught’, was 2.4 or 2.6. That has now been revised to be closer to four or five (meaning that for every person infected, it’s passed on to another four or five people).

“This is a very transmissible virus,” Dr Holohan said this evening. “It’s more transmissible than the flu

wakka12 · 20-04-2020 11:33pm

niallo27 wrote: »

Do they know who patient zero was, its impossible to know who it was and when it the virus first appeared on the cruise.

Well the man thought to be patient zero, the 80 yo Hong Kong man, experienced symptoms before he boarded the ship. Days later hundreds of people experienced symptoms on the ship

It is likely he is patient zero, but again given the timeline, its very unlikely any positive cases are unaccounted for

niallo27 · 20-04-2020 11:40pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Well the man thought to be patient zero, the 80 yo Hong Kong man, experienced symptoms before he boarded the ship. Days later hundreds of people experienced symptoms on the ship

It is likely he is patient zero, but again given the timeline, its very unlikely any positive cases are unaccounted for

Most reports are blaming crew members for the initial outbreak. It's impossible to know.

The link below is interesting, 73% of this prison has tested positive.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73-of-inmates-at-an-ohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

ShineOn7 · 21-04-2020 6:56am

niallo27 wrote: »

Most reports are blaming crew members for the initial outbreak. It's impossible to know.

The link below is interesting, 73% of this prison has tested positive.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73-of-inmates-at-an-ohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

This and many more links showing studies of 50% or more of those tested are coming back positive and yet WHO claims this to be at 3%

Fúck off WHO

The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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