The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

Jim_Hodge

Danno wrote: »

Do you have any links to the debunking - genuinely interested in reading some material.

Myself and one of the nippers got whacked by *something* like Covid 19 in the second half of December.

It has been asked and answered on several radio and TV programmes - it was definitely not here in December.

IAMAMORON

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

It has and probably true. However a lot of the what professionals have come out with has been shown up.

I'm going off the theory of 32k Scottish had it by March 21st then it throws a little wobbler into their it didn't arrive until march theory

People in China confirmed as having it as early as November, I just can't see how it wasn't around in some shape or form. Im wondering if perhaps a milder strain didn't come out and actually mutate in a carrier in Europe to become deadlier

I had a belter of a cold over Christmas. Wait for it.. high temperatures and a dry cough. It ran from xmas eve to around the 29th with a comfortable cough thereafter. It was a nasty enough dose, spoiled my holiday anyway.

But I was with family over Christmas, some elderly and they had no issues, so I am happy enough with it being a common cold. If it wasn't one of my family would surely have contracted it given how contagious it appears to be.

But I do think the likes of Northern Italy had it in December. Given its' apparent incubation of anywhere from 1 -14 days anything is possible. I reckon Italy had it weeks before serious questions were asked, particularly when we our seeing nursing home rate of almost 66% today. They just assumed it was your annual winter flu I reckon. I am only speculating that, but given how rampant it got in Italy I think they were definitely hit from behind.

normanoffside

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

It has and probably true. However a lot of the what professionals have come out with has been shown up.

I'm going off the theory of 32k Scottish had it by March 21st then it throws a little wobbler into their it didn't arrive until march theory

People in China confirmed as having it as early as November, I just can't see how it wasn't around in some shape or form. Im wondering if perhaps a milder strain didn't come out and actually mutate in a carrier in Europe to become deadlier

It's also possible that the people who have fought it off did so quickly while the people who required hospitalisation had it incubating for several weeks before they went to hospital for testing.

It should also be pointed out that some of the other studies (like in Spain and certain towns in Italy) which found that only 1 in 16 carriers had actually been identified by testing, is not actually that far out of line with the Scottish findings.

The 20% hospitalisation rate (which is often quoted as the % of this infected who require hospitalisation) is not actually that far off 1% when 15/16 people affected are never detected.

ShineOn7

Seen this on Reddit

Some stats:

New Cases: 657 + 411 from Germany
Total Cases: 12547
New Death: 38
Total Deaths: 444 - 284 in hospital, 43 in ICU
Male: 22
Female: 16
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 28

Deaths

• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 284
• Died in ICU 43
• Underlying conditions 84%
• Male - 262; Female - 182
• Median age: 82
• Mean Age: 69 (Range 23-105)

Of 285 in ICU

• Remain in hospital: 158
• Discharged: 84
• Died: 43
• Underlying conditions: 230
• Median Age: 61

As of Monday 13th

• Cases: 11251
• Hospitalised: 1968
• In ICU: 280
• Deaths: 435
• Clusters: 413 - Account for 2024 cases
• Median age infected: 48
• Healthcare workers: 2872 - 26%

Clusters

• Nursing Homes: 159
• Death Nursing Homes: 245 (This is all deaths, not all confirmed as Covid via testing just yet)

• Deaths - most having been reported over last few cases, don't think any related to any of the German cases
• 1000 new cases today - peak? More detailed picture of disease tomorrow - don't think that the increases is due to peak, but more to increased testing. Positivity rate has stayed consistent
• What is the next step? Some of the labs don't have enough work. Are we going to relax testing criteria soon? Will be looking at this, don't think it will occur this week. Build sampling capacity, contact tracing capacity, testing capacity
• Nursing homes identified as priority area. Stepped up measures as challenges arose.
• Final batch of testing sent to Germany was sent today - this is a small figure.

Jurgen Klopp

Can I just thank the few of ye here it is very nice and heartening we are able to discuss and work through these stats and points together without lads fighting, being condescending or other stuff

It really helps me mentally tbh

wakka12

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

But still the point stands, another nation coming to the conclusion it's far more widespread than believed.

It's just simply not true though . Denmark has a mortality rate of 5% among confirmed cases. If Denmark really has 30-80x times more cases then the danish authorities think the mortality rate of covid is between 0.06 and 0.15%.

If we apply that death rate to Italy based on 21600 deaths, it would mean up 43.2 million Italians have had the disease , considering the first cases of community transmission and deaths in Italy were recorded just 6 weeks ago it just not a plausible figure that 3/4 Italians caught the virus since then. Even that number getting it since January is not realistic

It's not realistic because contact tracings show that the R0 of the disease is nowhere near high enough to cause so many infections so quickly

If there were that many infections herd immunity would occur in Italy and there would not be thousands of deaths per week still occurring

Again, how could a disease of comparable mortality to flu stress Western European healthcare to this extent, mass graves in New York ffs..it's just impossible

Cupatae

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Let’s round up the Republic’s population to 5 million, it’s only 100,000 shy of this number

The amount of people expected to get it (whether they show symptoms or not) is anything from 30% to 70%, depending on the source you read. Huge differences there but let’s say 50% because it’s somewhere in between

That’s 2.5 million who’ll get it (remember; not all will show symptoms)

Reported mortality rates on this have been 0.5 to 2%. It’s just too early to tell

Let’s be optimistic and say 1%

1% of 2.5 million is 25,000 Irish fatalities in the Republic

This is more than double how many the HSE worker doing the Ask Me Anything thinks in his Best Case Scenario. He mentioned 10,000 people in this instance

So hopefully he’s actually right in this case and it’s “only” 10,000

For this to happen;

- The amount of carriers of this will have to be much lower than 50%, and

- mortality rate would need to be closer to 0.5%

How does 10,000 compare to a normal 12 months in Ireland when you combine the pneumonia and flu fatalities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

The death rate would depend on the health status of the individuals infected, 10000 fit young healthy 20-30 yr olds infected you d have very low death rate most would survive,

Flip that to elderly with underlying conditions and you could have alot dead... its hard to know how many will die. too many variables

normanoffside

wakka12 wrote: »

Again, how could a disease of comparable mortality to flu stress Western European healthcare to this extent, mass graves in New York ffs..it's just impossible

It's definitely got a slightly higher mortality rate than flu.
It appears to be more contagious as well.

The other point is that we have flu vaccines that we give to the elderly and vulnerable every year.
We don't have a vaccine for this

ShineOn7

normanoffside wrote: »

It's definitely got a slightly higher mortality rate than flu.

Slightly?

Flu's rate is 0.1%

This bastárd's is anything from 0.4 to 2% depending on what you read

Beasty

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Can I just thank the few of ye here it is very nice and heartening we are able to discuss and work through these stats and points together without lads fighting, being condescending or other stuff

It really helps me mentally tbh

Don't say that!!

You'll attract some of the "usual suspects" piling into your sanctuary:pac:

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Slightly?

Flu's rate is 0.1%

This bastárd's is anything from 0.4 to 2% depending on what you read

Yes that's a fair point but if there were no flu vaccine, what would it's mortality rate be?

ShineOn7

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes that's a fair point but if there were no flu vaccine, what would it's mortality rate be?

Anyone want to take a very calculated estimate?

iguana

wakka12 wrote: »

If we apply that death rate to Italy based on 21600 deaths, it would mean up 43.2 million Italians have had the disease , considering the first cases of community transmission and deaths in Italy were recorded just 6 weeks ago it just not a plausible figure that 3/4 Italians caught the virus since then. Even that number getting it since January is not realistic

The serology study done on blood donations from people claiming to have had no symptoms in the town on Castiglione d'Adda in Lombardy showed a 70% infection rate. Whatever about southern Italy, it's actually looking reasonably likely that the infection rates in northern Italy may in fact, be that high.

normanoffside

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Can I just thank the few of ye here it is very nice and heartening we are able to discuss and work through these stats and points together without lads fighting, being condescending or other stuff

Or people arguing the mortality rate is 21% :pac:

IAMAMORON

wakka12 wrote: »

It's just simply not true though . Denmark has a mortality rate of 5% among confirmed cases. If Denmark really has 30-80x times more cases then the danish authorities think the mortality rate of covid is between 0.06 and 0.15%.

If we apply that death rate to Italy based on 21600 deaths, it would mean up 43.2 million Italians have had the disease , considering the first cases of community transmission and deaths in Italy were recorded just 6 weeks ago it just not a plausible figure that 3/4 Italians caught the virus since then. Even that number getting it since January is not realistic

It's not realistic because contact tracings show that the R0 of the disease is nowhere near high enough to cause so many infections so quickly

If there were that many infections herd immunity would occur in Italy and there would not be thousands of deaths per week still occurring

Again, how could a disease of comparable mortality to flu stress Western European healthcare to this extent, mass graves in New York ffs..it's just impossible

I think your points are valid. A couple of aspects to the virus that are overlooked.

Danish Geography - Denmark is made up of a peninsula ( Jutland, very rural almost like Scotland( and then two other interconnected islands. Copenhagen is bridged to mainland Europe and also now to mainland Sweden. A lot of Swedes would work in Copenhagen and vice versa. You can live in Malmo ( pronounced malmoooo,) and commute to Copenhagen. Has the bridge and travel been closed with Malmo?

Just also on your Math. This morning I am getting 309/6,879 = which is 4.5% ( I know close enough to your 5%. But applying this to Italy's figures of 21,645/165,155 = 13.1% it is clear we have a difference in death to infection ratio. But what is that genuinely indicating at this stage?

Finally the 30x-80x standard deviation currently being offered by whoever quoted it is simply appalling for drawing any type of conclusive conclusion. They either have 30x 6k or 80 x 6k.... I mean that is a difference of 300,000 people. It is impossible to draw a suitable forecast from such numbers.

I personally think that it will turn out that this virus is extremely infectious and has a huge rate of infection. However it will also occur that there is a large populous of asymptomatic sufferers. I think the older you are the more trouble you are in. a lot more people are getting this and brushing it off.

normanoffside

Here's another interesting study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1


Universal testing in a Homeless shelter on Boston (408 homeless people) revealed that 36% were Positive (147) but only one had a temperature and 2 had shortness of Breath, and 13 had a cough.

Everyone else was Asymptomatic.

None required Hospital treatment.

ShineOn7

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I personally think that it will turn out that this virus is extremely infectious and has a huge rate of infection. However it will also occur that there is a large populous of asymptomatic sufferers. I think the older you are the more trouble you are in. a lot more people are getting this and brushing it off.

I think there's absolutely one vicious strain of this going around and the others are mild to moderate. My over analytical mind doesn't like this "lottery" side to it at all

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Can I just thank the few of ye here it is very nice and heartening we are able to discuss and work through these stats and points together without lads fighting, being condescending or other stuff

It really helps me mentally tbh

Yes agreed

As much as some of the other threads on the Covid subforum are a bit of a cluterfúck, both this thread and the "hows your mental health" one (https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062109) are my sanctuary of posting sanity on here

IAMAMORON

iguana wrote: »

The serology study done on blood donations from people claiming to have had no symptoms in the town on Castiglione d'Adda in Lombardy showed a 70% infection rate. Whatever about southern Italy, it's actually looking reasonably likely that the infection rates in northern Italy may in fact, be that high.

I think over time it will be proven that the infection rates are massive. But large amounts of younger people are brushing off the virus . I think the amount of asymptomatic sufferers could be well over 50%.

I am wary of the figures from northern Italy also. I reckon they have had this virus since possibly December and did not know it. Either way they were caught napping and did not expect it to be as widespread as it was so soon. It is looking like countries with smaller population densities are coping best.

Here is also a link to a stats website I found earlier today. I got it from a link that I found on a twitter feed from a UCD commerce student. His feed is full of scaremonger, he has been trying to assimilate and compare the latent German test results with Spanish infection rates, what ever he gets off on:rolleyes: . But he spiked his stats from this site here, so worth a look.

Edit - I took down the link it started giving me issues.

IAMAMORON

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think there's absolutely one vicious strain of this going around and the others are mild to moderate. My over analytical mind doesn't like this "lottery" side to it at all

Interesting I had pondered this also. The more aggressive strain diminishing via infection and mutating from there.

Very possible. It would explain the clustering for starters.

iguana

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am wary of the figures from northern Italy also. I reckon they have had this virus since possibly December and did not know it.

There is a theory that northern Italy had the virus for longer due to the fashion industry. The largest concentration of Chinese-run industry in Europe is in northern Italy with many, many thousands of Chinese workers, very often undocumented, making the clothing in Italy, so the garments have a 'Made in Italy' tag on them. The fabric used for the garments is also mainly imported from China, with the largest fashion distributers in China being based in Wuhan.

The virus could very easily have been brought in from China either during the fabric importation or by new factory workers/those coming back from trips home. The conditions in the factories are poor, so the virus would have spread very easily. This would then have been compounded by the fact that so many of the workers being illegal would have meant that if it became obvious that the virus was spreading in the factories, there would have been a massive incentive to hush it up. Adding to this, they would have been working to a huge output in preparation for Milan fashion week, which ran from February 18-24 this year. The main show ended up happening behind closed doors as the Italian quarantines in Lombardy and Vento had begun as the show happened.

It's just a theory at this point, but the more I read about it, the more merit it has. Very close industrial links between the original epicentre of the virus and the European epicentre. Lots of importation of goods and possibly extra labour ahead of one of the two biggest weeks of the year for the industry in Italy. And thousands of illegal workers with a huge incentive to cover up if the virus had started spreading.

wakka12

iguana wrote: »

There is a theory that northern Italy had the virus for longer due to the fashion industry. The largest concentration of Chinese-run industry in Europe is in northern Italy with many, many thousands of Chinese workers, very often undocumented, making the clothing in Italy, so the garments have a 'Made in Italy' tag on them. The fabric used for the garments is also mainly imported from China, with the largest fashion distributers in China being based in Wuhan.

The virus could very easily have been brought in from China either during the fabric importation or by new factory workers/those coming back from trips home. The conditions in the factories are poor, so the virus would have spread very easily. This would then have been compounded by the fact that so many of the workers being illegal would have meant that if it became obvious that the virus was spreading in the factories, there would have been a massive incentive to hush it up. Adding to this, they would have been working to a huge output in preparation for Milan fashion week, which ran from February 18-24 this year. The main show ended up happening behind closed doors as the Italian quarantines in Lombardy and Vento had begun as the show happened.

It's just a theory at this point, but the more I read about it, the more merit it has. Very close industrial links between the original epicentre of the virus and the European epicentre. Lots of importation of goods and possibly extra labour ahead of one of the two biggest weeks of the year for the industry in Italy. And thousands of illegal workers with a huge incentive to cover up if the virus had started spreading.

To me it seems unlikely because if the virus was in Northern Italy in December I think it would have easily spread throughout the rest of Europe very quickly. But serological tests in German epicentre towns revealed infection rates of only 15% in Gangelt, presumably this is considerably higher than the rest of the country as it has been an established epicentre for a month . Equally mass testing in Iceland revealled relatively low levels of the virus in the comunity, and the serological tests in Scotland posted a few pages back also revealed the virus was not widespread in Scotland several weeks ago

I dont see how it could have remained so confined to Northern Italy sinsce December, only going widespread in Europe in March, from a highly cosomopolitan socially connected wealthy centrally located place with no borders

Anyway Id say if you looked into it London and Paris would have just as high numbers of Chinese migrants legal or otherwise as Milan

IAMAMORON

Certainly is an interesting theory. But how does that correlate to Spain? They got a hammering as well? No fashion industry there?

Don't get me wrong the rag trade is certainly plausible, but I am half struggling with the concept of large sweat shops staffed by Chinese illegals in northern Italy, not impossible mind you, but I would like to see evidence of it. Italy does have a reputation for having a large black market, this is not as sinister as it sounds. It is common in southern Italy for example to have cheap non Eu persons working in factories or other workshops. Persons from north Africa, Albania, Turkey the Caucasus etc.

It could well be a factor though, I am not disagreeing with you.

ShineOn7

I'm going to share a theory reluctantly, as it doesn't bode well for Ireland unless we keep hammering home and following social distancing;

I think how social a country's people will play a factor in all of this. Italians all hug each other, the Spanish are big into lots of big family gatherings and are very social.

And the Irish? Well, do I even need to say how social we are?

Now compare that to countries that are socially cold and that have - last I checked - done ok with this; Germany and Japan

So I think 7 factors will come into play when all is said and done in the stats and the Maths of this:

• How densely populated a city or country is (I'm a stressed Dubliner)

• How fast a country's government locked down and how much they've implemented it (I still think Ireland is in "lockdown" and further measures (like in Dubai) are needed)

• How social a country's people are

• How modern and capable a country's heath infrastructure is (I don't know how Africa isn't absolutely riddled with this yet. I believe mass amounts of deaths are simply been put down to "just another day in Africa")

• How a country is testing and how many they are testing

• How a country is recording and not recording Covid fatalities. Some are counting Nursing Home fatalities, some aren't. Some are recording Covid as the reason for death when - for example - a patient was absolutely banjaxed with pnuemonia or similar before they got Covid. In some cases I feel Covid only attributed to 10% of their passing. But the certificate will still say "Covid". So there's under reporting and over reporting all over the world

• The age demographics of a country. Many have said that Italy having so many over 70s played a big part to their huge numbers

iguana

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Certainly is an interesting theory. But how does that correlate to Spain? They got a hammering as well? No fashion industry there?

Spain has a fairly large fashion industry and garment production industry too. Not on the same scale as Italy, and afaik I don't believe it has the same scale of ties with China. If it does they aren't as easy to find. But Inditex who own Zara, Massimo Dutti, Berksha, amongst other brands do a lot of manufacturing in Spain. Though in recent years, I think they also utilise a growing number of Turkish factories.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Don't get me wrong the rag trade is certainly plausible, but I am half struggling with the concept of large sweat shops staffed by Chinese illegals in northern Italy, not impossible mind you, but I would like to see evidence of it.

There are genuinely countless articles about it. It's a very open secret in the fashion industry.

https://ww.fashionnetwork.com/news/made-in-italy-by-chinese-workers,377237.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-21350013

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-sweatshop-insight/insight-italys-chinese-garment-workshops-boom-as-workers-suffer-idUSBRE9BS04D20131229

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany

ShineOn7

UK report



“Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease was the underlying cause of death with the most deaths (6,401 deaths), accounting for 14% of all deaths occurring in March 2020. This was followed by Ischaemic heart diseases with 4,042 deaths (9%) and the coronavirus (COVID-19), with 3,372 deaths (7%)”
“Of the 3,912 deaths that occurred in March 2020 involving COVID-19, 3,563 (91%) had at least one pre-existing condition. The mean number of pre-existing conditions is 2.7”


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020?fbclid=IwAR3hFdLSQsVVTpXbCqzkcABoFNz_YHxc9gKj-01DXveLjq2ERe5NnZlqXTM#comparing-covid-19-to-other-causes-of-death

Jurgen Klopp

normanoffside wrote: »

Here's another interesting study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1


Universal testing in a Homeless shelter on Boston (408 homeless people) revealed that 36% were Positive (147) but only one had a temperature and 2 had shortness of Breath, and 13 had a cough.

Everyone else was Asymptomatic.

None required Hospital treatment.

Oh my God

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Oh my God

??

Jurgen Klopp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

??

Oh nothing a good OMG :pac: Just found it very interesting at the random sampling

Hmmzis

February and March are the height of the skiing season. Apres-ski being the main thing people go there for (crowded bars, clubs, narrow streets, shops, AIRPORTS etc.). Northern Italy, Austria, south of Germany, Switzerland would be packed with tourists from all over the place. Ideal spreading ground for anything even remotely contagious.