The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

IAMAMORON

normanoffside wrote: »

It’s a good question, there are a couple of reasons:

1. Health care workers are being tested routinely and often more than once for screening purposes.
2. When there was a big backlog lots of people will have recovered by the time they were tested.

Otherwise the simple answer is that we have to test loads of people otherwise we can’t find the positive cases.
It’s impossible in most cases to know if they have it until they are tested as the symptoms are so similar to colds and flus.

I get the health worker piece, I would assume all frontline workers, including Gards, The Army, Ambulance would need to have been tested.

But I cannot help thinking that only testing a handful of people is kind of pointless?

I am struggling to believe South Korea's claim that they tested unilaterally now. Their population is 50 million, there is no way they have tested everyone? They must be spoofing?

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

The Danish Health Agency believes they have 30 to 80 times more infected than their official number

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200408/danish-health-agency-says-400000-could-have-been-infected?fbclid=IwAR0Y6YufD-pEabWUHitMf6vSpgPbX8myyEwmJsNbG7jc2TTF_lmP_OTJZvs

Huge difference between those two numbers

Jurgen Klopp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Huge difference between those two numbers

But still the point stands, another nation coming to the conclusion it's far more widespread than believed.

normanoffside

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I get the health worker piece, I would assume all frontline workers, including Gards, The Army, Ambulance would need to have been tested.

But I cannot help thinking that only testing a handful of people is kind of pointless?

I am struggling to believe South Korea's claim that they tested unilaterally now. Their population is 50 million, there is no way they have tested everyone? They must be spoofing?

Yeah but they don't have testing capacity to test everyone with a sniffle.
That's why they changed the case definition a month ago and cancelled 40,000 tests from people who had called their GP requesting a test (at a rate of 20,000 per day IIRC)

Now they only test you if you are in a vulnerable category (including health care workers) and those with 2 symptoms including a fever.

Jurgen Klopp

Normal what do you reckon out real infected numbers would be at given our useless testing regime?

Could we be close to 100k? I'm just going off the lowest 10x estimate from all the Italian, Spanish, etc claims

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

But still the point stands, another nation coming to the conclusion it's far more widespread than believed.

True



But this bodes well for the mortality rate doesn't it?

IAMAMORON

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Normal what do you reckon out real infected numbers would be at given our useless testing regime?

Could we be close to 100k? I'm just going off the lowest 10x estimate from all the Italian, Spanish, etc claims

If our current infected rates are circa 100k then 400 deaths fits snugly into the the German mortality rate of 0.37%?

normanoffside

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If our current infected rates are circa 100k then 400 deaths fits snugly into the the German mortality rate of 0.37%?

Clusters in nursing homes would be skewing our death rate massively upwards though?
Probably closer to 60,000

IAMAMORON

normanoffside wrote: »

Clusters in nursing homes would be skewing our death rate massively upwards though?
Probably closer to 60,000

I was speaking with friends on the continent earlier today, the same nursing home spikes are happening in Belgium, France and the UK. I think if you are over 80 and you get this your survival chances are minimal.

It is spreading through the nursing homes because old aged people are less likely to be as vigilantly hygienic, either voluntarily or not. I have seen some racist finger pointing at nursing home staff, but the reality is that it has gotten in there through family and friends as well. I reckon over time it will be proven we have a lot of asymptomatic cases and that the younger you are the more robust your immune system is at shaking it off.

I robbed this graph off the main page. It show Dublin as basically being Ireland's epicentre, when you see how satellite towns and counties are affected it really compounds this. Cavan, Mullingar, Kildare and Wicklow are all now an hour's drive from Dublin.



The more I see the figures the more I think we are lucky to have locked down so early. But without a plan we are screwed if we open up early.

If we assume a 50% asymptomatic rate and then the 0.037% mortality rate I estimate that total Dublin deaths are going to be 1.4 million @ .037% = circa 5,000 deaths. There is a long way to go yet at these rates. However if we apply the same logic to the underestimation ( by say 10 times ) then Dublin has potentially 55,000 infected already. Given the 50% asymptomatic rate then that figure may not be to far off.

Either way you look at it the lockdown has been a success but we have no plan yet to get out of it, which is a problem.

Jurgen Klopp

Honestly I don't know why the public are so surprised if you ever have worked in a nursing home large amounts are on their last legs. All you need is 1 asymptomatic staff member and you're ****ed

Jurgen Klopp

IAMAMORAN I think it was circa 25,000 dead at 0.4% I rounded up a little assuming 100% population infection

CalamariFritti

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Either way you look at it the lockdown has been a success but we have no plan yet to get out of it, which is a problem.

I'd say the plan is to sit tight and be conservative in your measures and watch what everyone else does and how that works out.

normanoffside

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Honestly I don't know why the public are so surprised if you ever have worked in a nursing home large amounts are on their last legs. All you need is 1 asymptomatic staff member and you're ****ed

That's the thing about not having a vaccine though.
Flu Vaccines would be routinely given to all elderly, vulnerable and healthcare workers (to stop spread).

When a vaccine is developed this thing could prove to be pretty harmless.

IAMAMORON

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

IAMAMORAN I think it was circa 25,000 dead at 0.4% I rounded up a little assuming 100% population infection

I got 17,000 nationally based on .037% mortality rate on a 4.6 million population in the free state. I have ignored the north for the moment.

I still don't think we will get there however, thankfully. Current mortality rates do not encompass future time benefits and potential cure economies generated as we address the virus. The current .0037% rate ( Lets call it the Heinsberg Rate ), will have to get smaller as cures and treatments improve. Fingers crossed of course.

Another factor that might help us is if we discriminate the release of lockdown measures. For example, letting out younger people earlier will allow for a generating herd immunity ( no shouting please it is a thing) through asymptomatic infections. The only problem here is the further cocooning of the elderly, this will prove just as difficult.

Jurgen Klopp

I was going off this anyways for our population

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ireland-population/

I assumed the 4.6 off the last cenus and if above includes the North I thought it would be at 5.6m I don't know tho

IAMAMORON

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I'd say the plan is to sit tight and be conservative in your measures and watch what everyone else does and how that works out.

That is exactly what is going to happen. I can see us following European countries. How we handle what the UK do will be a PR exercise for government. But as soon as our business leaders start kicking up a fuss changes will be brought in. In the end the economy will have to be given precedence. Broadly it looks like they have planned for a 3 month lockdown. It is up for discussion now on Primetime, Miriam is looking radiant as ever:).

Damien360

paleoperson wrote: »

Authorities in the western world are already moving to try to underreport the numbers, in the same systematic way China is. They are desperate to re-open their economies. New York stated yesterday that the number of suspected coronavirus death was another 200 per day than is being recorded, in the UK it has been estimated as up to 24% higher according to the central statistics office.

There's going to be a lot more suspicious-sounding deaths that are handwaved away as not being coronavirus in the coming few weeks and months as they try to get the economy moving again.

A great deal of this I believe has to do with how each country is reporting the deaths. This information I take from podcasts, particularly BBC behind the statistics podcast series. Germany for instance does not count the death as covid19 if there was an underlying condition as principle cause. The UK is back calculating the figures based on last years rate and comparing for same time. Seasonal adjustment if you like. There is mixed reports of many countries omitting care home deaths but no hard proof. China is racing to get its economy roaring and its infection figures are questionable. I see it as a morbid competition to keep reported deaths low. Bit like not panicking the masses by showing your health system is coping. The economy will eventually put pressure on the world to get back to work. The US is very much stating this with talk of end of the month back to some normality.

I worry we are taking a battle scenario of expected number of deaths as a fact and just keep fighting the war.

ShineOn7

Damien360 wrote: »

The economy will eventually put pressure on the world to get back to work. The US is very much stating this with talk of end of the month back to some normality.

Trump said the same thing about been back open at Easter and he'll "revalue" this new opening date at the end of the month and extend it again

He knows that the US stock market will completely fall off a cliff if he tells the truth now

Danno

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I got 17,000 nationally based on .037% mortality rate on a 4.6 million population in the free state. I have ignored the north for the moment.

I still don't think we will get there however, thankfully. Current mortality rates do not encompass future time benefits and potential cure economies generated as we address the virus. The current .0037% rate ( Lets call it the Heinsberg Rate ), will have to get smaller as cures and treatments improve. Fingers crossed of course.

Another factor that might help us is if we discriminate the release of lockdown measures. For example, letting out younger people earlier will allow for a generating herd immunity ( no shouting please it is a thing) through asymptomatic infections. The only problem here is the further cocooning of the elderly, this will prove just as difficult.

I think its going to have to comedown to antibody testing, especially for anyone living with or providing care for the retired and the vulnerable. We need a wall of immunity between the general population and those who are immunocompromised.

Open the economy back up and keep a close eye on hospitalisations of the general public, restrictions back on for a bit if it gets heavy. But keep the wheels rolling towards herd immunity. If a vaccine comes along then we can roll it out quickly to those most in need.

Diarmuid

I presume you mean 0.37%?

German study finding mortality of 0.4%
https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/?amp&fbclid=IwAR3slO73v-Fl_j9yUr9gu4wvLW2qwp3HdXuS9upRLuahkRrU8LK7IvllQUI

Vegeta

Are people purposefully misrepresenting that study?

infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent.

The 0.37% is the infection fatality rate, nothing more or less.

Cuddlesworth

Vegeta wrote: »

The 0.37% is the infection fatality rate, nothing more or less.

Based on their current ability to deal with the virus, having curbed the exponential growth.

normanoffside

Another Blood donor's survey in Scotland suggest 0.6% had already built Antibodies to the disease by March 21st.
At the time Scotland only had 195 Confirmed cases. This survey would suggest that more than 32,000 had already had it.

https://twitter.com/EEID_oxford/status/1248662224010391553

ShineOn7

normanoffside wrote: »

Another Blood donor's survey in Scotland suggest 0.6% had already built Antibodies to the disease by March 21st.
At the time Scotland only had 195 Confirmed cases. This survey would suggest that more than 32,000 had already had it.

More than 32,000 had already had it in Scotland without knowing they had it, and then recovered?

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

More than 32,000 had already had it in Scotland without knowing they had it, and then recovered?

Yes if the data can be extrapolated it suggests that 32,000 had already recovered and built anitbodies by the time Scotland had 195 confirmed cases.

Whether they knew it or not can't be assumed from the data. Maybe some had son=me symptoms and not been tested and others had been Asymptomatic and not realised?

Jurgen Klopp

Surely if that many had it we'd have seen a spike in hospital admission's. It would make you think there might be something to the severe dose going around after Xmas but if so why no hospital admission spike

normanoffside

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Surely if that many had it we'd have seen a spike in hospital admission's. It would make you think there might be something to the severe dose going around after Xmas but if so why no hospital admission spike

I think it more highlights how poor the UK testing system is/was. They only test in hospital and people would generally only go to hospital Several weeks after being infected (showing symptoms a week or two after being infected and only presenting about 10 days after first symptoms on average)

If it can all be taken on face value then 195 had gone to hospital from 32195 total cases, a hospitalisation rate of 1%.

There’ll be a lot of scientific studies on the back of this, that’s for sure.

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

It would make you think there might be something to the severe dose going around after Xmas

I think that's been thoroughly debunked by medical professionals

Jurgen Klopp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think that's been thoroughly debunked by medical professionals

It has and probably true. However a lot of the what professionals have come out with has been shown up.

I'm going off the theory of 32k Scottish had it by March 21st then it throws a little wobbler into their it didn't arrive until march theory

People in China confirmed as having it as early as November, I just can't see how it wasn't around in some shape or form. Im wondering if perhaps a milder strain didn't come out and actually mutate in a carrier in Europe to become deadlier

Danno

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think that's been thoroughly debunked by medical professionals

Do you have any links to the debunking - genuinely interested in reading some material.

Myself and one of the nippers got whacked by *something* like Covid 19 in the second half of December.