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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #8522
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,014 ✭✭✭Miike


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

    We're in the top 10 in the world (excluding tiny population outliers) for cases per million population. While the news we're receiving is positive, I'm not jumping up and down for joy. I don't think anyone should be, lest we risk complacency.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


  • #8523
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    That's because of social distancing etc. Like what message did you want to hear. UK had 1000 deaths a day from this virus -

    As a society Ireland pull together on this and results in lower infections.

    The posters on here are unbelievable at times - blame the government because we didn't have a lot of infections/deaths.

    And the same posters would have blame the government had we had 20,000 infections.

    I suspect given the response that the virus numbers are increases in nursing homes and so that's why the big effort is there. They over 2 weeks to get that under countrol, before letting letting restrictions ease a little bit.

    Well if you'd read my post, the answer as to what I wanted was there. I wanted a message that tallied with what the figures were saying or at least a consistent message.

    I didn't believe the 15K prediction at the time and have posted on here that it was out of kilter with the evidence that was being presented.

    I equally don't believe the optimism being portrayed in the past week or so. The daily numbers don't support this as we are increasing at a rate that seems to indicate we are not definitively over the peak yet.

    So to me, they have flip flopped from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism in the space of a few weeks. I want to see the HSE/Government leave out the spin.


  • #8524
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,331 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Hysterical nonsense without any supporting evidence.

    Never seen the streets so busy!

    My eyes couldn't roll much harder
    Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #8525
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,331 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Miike wrote: »
    We're in the top 10 in the world (excluding tiny population outliers) for cases per million population. While the news we're receiving is positive, I'm not jumping up and down for joy. I don't think anyone should be, lest we risk complacency.
    What makes our position worse is that we've one of the lowest population densities in the western world. We should be lower because of that alone. Though against that it seems community transmission is way down and both our social distancing and low pop density has made a big diff there.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #8526
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,007 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Id say none given we are in a really bad place.

    Current reported deaths and new infections and the R-0 are very different things.

    Much of the stats we hear this week are delayed due to the clearing of the test backlog and administrative delays in reporting fatalities. Also, a concentration of infections in nursing homes and the like skew the stats.

    The fact is, we have avoided a runaway surge and the curve, as they say, has been flattened. So, in a global context we are in a contained situation, albeit hazardous and requiring tireless vigilance.

    Speaking again to my medic friends in St James, he doesn't see much changing until a natural fall off in acute admissions to the main centres, but he said they aren't so much overwhelmed with cases now as fatigued from the nature of the barrier protocols, shift lengths, repetitive treatments and so on. He says the water cooler gossip there is a about a gradual reopening of a wider variety of consumer services and retailers during May with strict metering of numbers and so on. So maybe we'll see clothes shops and such like become available, but I don't see a general return to offices and hospitality work for the foreseeable.


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  • #8527
    deisedevil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,252 ✭✭✭deisedevil


    Miike wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062246

    The growth of this virus, from the data we have at hand (I'm not interested in getting into a tinfoil hat debate), shows that we're doing a good job at keeping levels of explosive growth down. Our ICUs aren't totally overloaded and in the large we're 'coping' under the current measures. The numbers of 15k cases / day were based on the premise we do nothing at all or everyone just carried on as normal.

    Point of order: we are not on a "total lockdown".

    How does anyone know that what number of cases there really was by the end of the month? The testing has been, and still is, no where near good enough to give a true reflection of positive cases nationwide. Even now, despite what they are saying publically through the media, nursing homes are still having to wait ages to even get a swab done on suspected cases and are being told no swab for nurses who were in contact with suspected cases, just go home for two weeks. The testing situation has never been anything like what we keep being told it would be. It's a case of over promising and under delivering time and time again. The positive case numbers have never meant a whole lot at all and our ICU numbers are the best indication of how well our restriction measures are working o would think.


  • #8528
    elperello
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,382 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.

    Interesting observation.

    Begs the question (not that I expect you to know the answer) as to where they are all going?

    No pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. open which would be normal Saturday night destinations.


  • #8529
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    I think we can say now we are one of the hardest hit countries in the world, act accordingly folks, stay safe

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #8530
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    As protests by Trumptards erupt in midwest states in the US Illinois reports a doubling of new deaths from yesterday - 125 (67 yesterday), joins the 3 digit club


  • #8531
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 79,784 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Lashes28 wrote: »
    729 deaths and they are reopening beaches.
    God HELP America

    FYP.

    BYW, this is what I think they really mean.
    510143.jpg
    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Probably because they are 30.

    ...or 22? :rolleyes:
    Christy42 wrote: »
    At no point where we told that 15000 would be happening. It was described as a worst case scenario. Then doom merchants ran with it as guaranteed fact.

    There may very well be 15000 cases out there, not all symptomatics, not all tested. There could be more. We don't know.


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  • #8532
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    I was talking to German colleague of mine yesterday and he told me that all construction and industry is carrying on as normal there. Only restaurants, pubs, schools and creches closed. It hasn't seemed to have hit them in a negative way. Maybe we might be looking at something similar on May 5th.


  • #8533
    SCOOP 64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,750 ✭✭✭SCOOP 64


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    I actually think DIY type places will open up and non building site tradesmen will be allow back to work, gardners/plumber/electricians etc, and see how that goes for a week or two.


    Yes and no doubt the way the government will word it will be totally open to interpretation and most non essential business will be open Tuesday 5th may.


  • #8534
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 92,394 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    I suspect the nursing home situation is going to get far worse before it gets better.

    Deaths are the ultimate metric of how we are doing.

    Is all nursing homes staff and patients getting tested now even without symptoms?


  • #8535
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

    9th worst in the world per million.

    Nothing positive about that.

    Bad place.


  • #8536
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,771 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

    You must not have been following this thread from the start.

    Ireland could announce a proven cure for Covid19 tomorrow and BanditLuke and others would be telling us all how awful it is. Total disaster.


  • #8537
    threeball
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,356 ✭✭✭threeball


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    9th worst in the world per million.

    Nothing positive about that.

    Bad place.

    But its becoming clear that the recording of deaths in most countries is very loose. At least we are recording ours. I wouldnt make any judgements until the dust settles. I think you'll find we did ok.


  • #8538
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,050 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Where the **** are the Irish journalists?
    Sitting at home watching their twitter accounts?
    Where is the holding to account in this country? Who is checking the facts and the situation at nursing homes, hospitals, ICUs. They are just doing magazine pieces and parroting the official releases.


  • #8539
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,865 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.


  • #8540
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.


    Just went into town and back out, stopped in a roadblock

    Place is a ghost town, just Garda cars and a few people about their business, 95% of places are closed, just a few delivery places open

    No place has ever been a few cars an hour on a main road, certainly not one they would put a checkpoint on

    A normal Saturday night, you really must be joking


  • #8541
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,049 ✭✭✭growleaves


    729 deaths and they are reopening beaches.
    God HELP America

    The beaches were shut down based on of predictions of many multiples of that (even with mitigation efforts). So why wouldn't they re-open them?

    Stay sane, folks


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  • #8542
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,050 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Where the **** are the Irish journalists?
    Sitting at home watching their twitter accounts?
    Where is the holding to account in this country? Who is checking the facts and the situation at nursing homes, hospitals, ICUs. They are just doing magazine pieces and parroting the official releases.

    And while I'm at it, why the **** does this website block out the world ****? Embarrassing in this day and age. Grow up DeVore.


  • #8543
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.

    Community transmission is zero?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #8544
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,865 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Hobgoblin11 wrote: »
    Community transmission is zero?
    Yes. It was confirmed in the press conference Thursday.


  • #8545
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 92,394 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Source?

    I think a guy on VM1 news this week connected with nursing homes mentioned that many deceased in the nursing homes were dying while still waiting test results with no symptoms


  • #8546
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Saw a piece on RTE news saying people are scared to go into hospitals, even if they have symptoms of heart attack, stroke etc. Treatment is time critical in many illnesses and delay can lead to bad outcomes.

    The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.


  • #8547
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Yes. It was confirmed in the press conference Thursday.

    Do you mean the R0 rate is close to 0?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #8548
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Saw a piece on RTE news saying people are scared to go into hospitals, even if they have symptoms of heart attack, stroke etc. Treatment is time critical in many illnesses and delay can lead to bad outcomes.

    The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.

    to be fair to holohan, he's been banging that drum a lot the last week.


  • #8549
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.

    And how is that to be accomplished in terms of isolation?


  • #8550
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,049 ✭✭✭growleaves


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.

    A German virologist found that likelihood of transmission even in supermarkets is extremely low.

    Complying with the restrictions has been moralised out of all proportion. There's no moral dimension to people picking up an infection in the hospital. There are people standing by to scapegoat randomers who went for 2.1km walks if the unproven mitigation measures don't make a dent in the numbers.


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  • #8551
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,076 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Panrich wrote: »
    The problem is the lack of consistency in messaging that allows all sorts of ill informed speculation to thrive. In March we were being told that there would be 15,000 cases by the end of the month. The case numbers were not pointing to that being likely and so it transpired that it was wildly exaggerated.

    Now a month later the message has flipped and we're being told everything is under control and the R number is less than 1 when every day we still have huge numbers of cases and we're showing no signs of the cases/deaths decreasing after three weeks of total lockdown.


    Until all the historic tests are taken out of the equation then we are in the dark as to where exactly we are at. When we are testing today and returning the result in 24 hrs then we will know exactly where we stand. I suspect Dr Tony has a fair idea but he doesn't want people to get complacent. A big effort to comply for the next 2 1/2 weeks and we'll be in a good position. Its surely not too much to ask.


This discussion has been closed.
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