Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

13-04-2020 03:45PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

its mortality rate is only about 3-10%

I read an article suggesting the mortality rate for covid19 was closely correlated to the overall death rate. For example, an average 40 year old has roughly 0.2% chance of dying in a given year, and also of dying of corona virus, up to maybe 5% for a 75 year old. The effect of this would be that Covid 19, unconstrained, would cause roughly the expected number of deaths by all other causes in a country, but would do so in the matter of weeks, not over 12 months. That’s why we engage in suppression.

13-04-2020 03:45PM

Question: Is it a fair assumption to say UK are about 6 weeks behind Spain / Italy ect?

Factor in a couple of weeks either side of that assumption and how they are actually dealing with the crisis

Hobgoblin11 · 13-04-2020 03:46PM

giveitholly wrote: »

Ok fair enough,thanks eagle eye,if a medicine can be found did it say how long it would take to be manufactured and brought onto the market?

Finding 38 antibodies doesn’t mean much as regards a timeline to a vaccine

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:47PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

Finding 38 antibodies doesnâ€™t mean much as regards a timeline to a vaccine

I was talking about a medicine to prevent deaths, not a vaccine.

Rvsmmnps · 13-04-2020 03:48PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Even in the worst case scenario only 10% will die anywhere

The mortality rate over 70 v the mortality rate under 70..one is news worthy the other is not.

Hobgoblin11 · 13-04-2020 03:48PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I was talking about a medicine to prevent deaths, not a vaccine.

How long does it say that takes ?

keynes · 13-04-2020 03:50PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Belgium, Sweden, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Luxembourg, Switzerland all higher than us. Austria, Denmark, Germany, Portugal- rates close to us. Who are these countries that handled it so much better, when all our neighbours are faring as bad or worse? The countries with similar demographics and links to ourselves. Add to this all the countries that don’t even bother to report deaths outside hospital. Ireland is handling this well in that our health system is still functioning. Everyone who needs treatment is getting it. In a world that was woefully unprepared for this Ireland is managing as well as anyone

Given our location as an island on the periphery of Europe who had weeks to watch what was evolving elsewhere, we should be doing markedly better than all of these places. The fact (as you claim) that we are performing similar to Austria---which borders Northern Italy---only highlights how inept our response has been. In fact, instead of waiting for a government response, people had to repeatedly take matters into their own hands. Restaurants and shops were closing well before any official lockdown. Towns were cancelling their St Patricks Day parades before any official cancellation. Trinity College closed before any government dictat. At each juncture, the government was shamed into action, as the public acted unilaterally and forced their hand. As comparable countries to us (like Denmark) are now getting back to business, we should sit back and contemplate "what might have been."

Iamabeliever · 13-04-2020 03:51PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Question: Is it a fair assumption to say UK are about 6 weeks behind Spain / Italy ect?

Factor in a couple of weeks either side of that assumption and how they are actually dealing with the crisis

How 6 weeks?

AVFC.Stephen · 13-04-2020 03:52PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Question: Is it a fair assumption to say UK are about 6 weeks behind Spain / Italy ect?

Factor in a couple of weeks either side of that assumption and how they are actually dealing with the crisis

I would say it's closer than that but like womans day in spain. UK had Cheltenham... oh and dont forget a few days of herd immunity

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:56PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

How long does it say that takes ?

It doesn't say but shouldn't take that long.

13-04-2020 03:56PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its not hindsight when you have 2 full months of advance notice and two full months of lessons from China, Singapore and Hong Kong before our first confirmed case. Its head in the sand stuff which Harris, Leo, HSE and CMO were all guilty of. Not going to happen here was the attitude they took and their statements from the time support this.

Of course we were not going to avoid this. We could however easily have restricted its entry and spread here to the point that we could have diagnosed almost all positives quickly and contact traced properly, all of which we have been unable to do. When you are only contact tracing weeks old cases from Germany now, you know you've made a balls of it.

Is this the Singapore that successfully suppressed it, until the last few days where cases are taking off?

The virus is going to spread and cannot be stopped, only delayed. And we have delayed it as our health system is managing so far. Our testing rate is almost as high as Germany’s and higher that most of Western Europe also. The problem with the testing is that we committed to do more than we had capacity to do, but still completed more than most

13-04-2020 03:58PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Question: Is it a fair assumption to say UK are about 6 weeks behind Spain / Italy ect?

Factor in a couple of weeks either side of that assumption and how they are actually dealing with the crisis

Most assessments earlier were that they were 2 weeks behind, and we were a further week behind.

ArmaniJeanss · 13-04-2020 03:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Question: Is it a fair assumption to say UK are about 6 weeks behind Spain / Italy ect?

Factor in a couple of weeks either side of that assumption and how they are actually dealing with the crisis

2 weeks behind would be closer than 6 I think.

I think the UK have actually been well organised. They got the Excel Centre thing built up in double quick time, and generally seemed to have mobilised all the emergency services properly whilst retaining the support and cooperation of the general public.

They may also have been 'lucky' in that they have been hit uniformly. Italy got hit disproportionately with so much centred on Bergamo. Equivalent I suppose would be if Bristol, Sheffield or Edinburgh had been the epicentre of an off-the-scale epidemic, how would they have coped?

Wibbs · 13-04-2020 04:00PM

keynes wrote: »

Given our location as an island on the periphery of Europe who had weeks to watch what was evolving elsewhere, we should be doing markedly better than all of these places. The fact (as you claim) that we are performing similar to Austria---which borders Northern Italy---only highlights how inept our response has been. In fact, instead of waiting for a government response, people had to repeatedly take matters into their own hands. Restaurants and shops were closing well before any official lockdown. Towns were cancelling their St Patricks Day parades before any official cancellation. Trinity College closed before any government dictat. At each juncture, the government was shamed into action, as the public acted unilaterally and forced their hand. As comparable countries to us (like Denmark) are now getting back to business, we should sit back and contemplate "what might have been."

You forgot our much lower population densities and our lowest number of people in apartment living K. Never mind the sheer incompetence of encouraging never mind stopping visits to care homes, not restricting our borders, still not doing basic temp checks at ports, stating asymptomatic spreads was of very low risk. The list of incompetence is long.

bekker · 13-04-2020 04:03PM

ROK 13 antibody candidates identified, as reported previously, here is link

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200413005800320?section=science/science

13-04-2020 04:03PM

keynes wrote: »

Given our location as an island on the periphery of Europe who had weeks to watch what was evolving elsewhere, we should be doing markedly better than all of these places. The fact (as you claim) that we are performing similar to Austria---which borders Northern Italy---only highlights how inept our response has been. In fact, instead of waiting for a government response, people had to repeatedly take matters into their own hands. Restaurants and shops were closing well before any official lockdown. Towns were cancelling their St Patricks Day parades before any official cancellation. Trinity College closed before any government dictat. At each juncture, the government was shamed into action, as the public acted unilaterally and forced their hand. As comparable countries to us (like Denmark) are now getting back to business, we should sit back and contemplate "what might have been."

Where is there anything in the data to suggest we are anything more that 5 days behind Denmark in trajectory. It remains to be seen how that will work out for them, and we won’t know for 3 weeks at least was it too early or not

BorneTobyWilde · 13-04-2020 04:03PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

ShamoBuc wrote: »

No they wouldn't.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52267376

Spain with 3000 new cases daily, and 300-400 deaths daily are now opening with those so called '' LOW'' figures.

SO again, we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so what do we do, shut it down for 20 years,

We should be focusing on increasing the ICU beds, not spending billions on Covid Payments to keep people at home. Spend billions on 500 icu beds and reopen.

AVFC.Stephen · 13-04-2020 04:04PM

Personally I think the folks by the hse are doing there utmost and from the way leo went about his speech in the US for the irish people. It was a clear view to show how important irelands health is to him. For those that dont know best part of his family work in healthcare so he does have an extra idea of what would be going on compare to the average joe ( me) has to say on the matter.

Sure if it was mary Lou in power I doubt she would have a better approach. Actually I would wager we would be still squabbling over when to do a semi lock down

13-04-2020 04:07PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52267376

Spain with 3000 new cases daily, and 300-400 deaths daily are not opening with those so called '' LOW'' figures.

SO again, we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so what do we do, shut it down for 20 years,

We should be focusing on increasing the ICU beds, not spending billions on Covid Payments to keep people at home. Spend billions on 500 icu beds and reopen.

Agreed. We have to plan as if we are going to have to live with this virus. Vaccine may not be successful, so talk of lockdown until we have a vaccine will in the long term have far graver consequences.

Rob A. Bank · 13-04-2020 04:08PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

[ Spend billions on 500 icu beds and reopen.

It's true... the market idolizing neo-liberals are a death cult !

Stheno · 13-04-2020 04:08PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52267376

Spain with 3000 new cases daily, and 300-400 deaths daily are not opening with those so called '' LOW'' figures.

SO again, we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so what do we do, shut it down for 20 years,

We should be focusing on increasing the ICU beds, not spending billions on Covid Payments to keep people at home. Spend billions on 500 icu beds and reopen.

There are 500 extra icu beds along with 1000 ventilators available now according to the HSE this morning

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 04:09PM

There are currently 862 people being treated for Covid-19 in hospital.

Chief Operations Officer at the HSE Anne O'Connor gave the figure today, which she said was correct up to 8pm last night.

She said this was an increase of 8.5% on the previous week, however it was a smaller increase than we have seen in previous weeks.

148 patients with Covid-19 are being treated in ICU, while a further 127 people with non-Covid related illnesses are also in intensive care.

Ms O'Connor said there are 135 ICU beds available, while there are more than 2,000 hospital beds available generally.

Some up to date numbers here.

Fair play to Coyote predicting 162 in ICU. Not far off 148.

Good numbers on testing too.

HSE Chief Executive Paul Reid told a media briefing today that Ireland had built up a backlog of around 35,000. As of today that figure is now at 11,000, he said.

Paul Reid, CEO of HSE, says the backlog of tests to be completed has been reduced from 35,000 to 11,000 and says the aim is to have that backlog eliminated entirely by the end of the week. #covid19

Mr Reid added that the backlog has been reduced by increasing our own lab capacity and testing being carried out in a German laboratory.

He said the HSE's goal was to carry out 4,500 lab tests per day by last week, and that on Saturday, 7,900 tests were carried out.

Turnaround times for testing carried out in hospitals is now between 24 and 36 hours, however, he said there is "further work to do" in this regard for community testing, which he said is a more complex process.

Mr Reid said there are now 25 laboratories carrying out testing for Covid-19.

This includes 20 hospital laboratories, the lab in Germany, the National Virus Reference Lab, and three others in Ireland.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0413/1130184-coronavirus-ireland/

13-04-2020 04:09PM

A medical supply company in Ireland seems to have antibody tests ready to sell to health services...

https://www.medical-supply.ie/product/2019-ncov-igg-igm-rapid-test-single-use-kit/

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 04:10PM

Stheno wrote: »

There are 500 extra icu beds along with 1000 ventilators available now according to the HSE this morning

so lockdown should stop, I doubt we have the staff for the amount of beds though, they mentioned 7 per bed

Rob A. Bank · 13-04-2020 04:11PM

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 13 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs CET

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-13.png?itok=V7AZ-4Y3

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-13.png?itok=V7AZ-4Y3

Looking like the peak in daily cases in Europe was at the start of this month.

Less daily cases being reported from the UK today.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

tobefrank321 · 13-04-2020 04:12PM

If you re-open the economy the R0 goes up hugely, possibly as high as 5 or 6.

If you are starting from a low base this is not too big of a problem although you would see total cases double every 3 days or so.

We are not starting from a low base though. And many cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

igCorcaigh · 13-04-2020 04:17PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A medical supply company in Ireland seems to have antibody tests ready to sell to health services...

https://www.medical-supply.ie/product/2019-ncov-igg-igm-rapid-test-single-use-kit/

Companies will be very willing to flog these kits.
But we need to be convinced of their accuracy.
Hasn't happened yet.

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 04:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If you re-open the economy the R0 goes up hugely, possibly as high as 5 or 6.

If you are starting from a low base this is not too big of a problem although you would see total cases double every 3 days or so.

We are not starting from a low base though. And many cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

no pubs/restaurants /hotels etc, just let so industry resume with as much precaution as possible

Iamabeliever · 13-04-2020 04:18PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 13 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs CET

Looking like the peak in daily cases in Europe was at the start of this month.

Less daily cases being reported from the UK today.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Mondays cases are usually the lowest

MrMusician18 · 13-04-2020 04:19PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

But the calling out of the bad apples never happens, unless they literally kill someone.

The nurses that left smellys father mother sitting in a dirty bed for the three hours I bet weren't diciplined, even though such care falls will below the minimum standard. The nurse that told me to wait while she finished her bull**** personal conversation while I was trying to get help for the woman next to my wife's trolley who was going to wet herself wouldn't have acted like that if there was going to be consequences for her. There are some severe problems with attitude on the frontline from some staff.

Yes, lots of great work happens in our hospitals, and I am thankful that we have them. And of course we should be providing them with the best equipment to keep them safe as they go about their very necessary and important work.

What I have a problem with, is the canonisation of the frontline healthcare workers - it means you can't call out bad practice, for fear of being labeled ungrateful.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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