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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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  • #2012
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,589 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end


  • #2013
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    citysights wrote: »
    Best question ever well said. Not everyone obviously but some people seem to have a death obsession here, guilting everyone else into nearly breathing. All over some media as well ffs. When do we ever hear the good news that people have actually recovered, many people. No It’s all about lock downs, dark days, pure doom and gloom, even talking at the start of this about the erection of temporary morgues. Doom merchants. Some of them would nearly have the grave dug for you. No wonder people are terrified. It’s just not right.

    Oh absolutely, the desire to see more bad news is clear, in some of the posters.


  • #2014
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

    And there are people here who want to lockdown more. I think if deaths stay low we should think about opening restrictions in a few weeks.


  • #2015
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,065 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

    I think the next two weeks is peak surge
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #2016
    ShamoBuc
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 34,951 CMod ✭✭✭✭ShamoBuc


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

    No they wouldn't.


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  • #2017
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

    Most other countries have much better healthcare service than us


    We have to work harder because we will become overwhelmed quicker


  • #2018
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    I think the next two weeks is peak surge

    The whole point of implementing the restrictions early is that there isnt a visible surge.
    This was said at one of the press conferences last week when the graphs were produced.

    The flattening of the curve is to push the cases out over a longer period of time


  • #2019
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Most other countries have much better healthcare service than us


    We have to work harder because we will become overwhelmed quicker

    Most other countries would give their right arm for our health service.


  • #2020
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,614 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    smelly sock wrote: »
    Hopefully we've just peaked. RIP to the 14 who lost their lives.

    Good to see numbers coming down though.

    very doubtful,

    we'll see in a few days, how bad the spike in deaths reported tuesday/ wednesday will be


  • #2021
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,100 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    easypazz wrote: »
    Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

    That's imbecilic. You know rightly that that is not true. Perhaps you need to put this situation, and the deaths, in perspective and context.


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  • #2022
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Most other countries would give their right arm for our health service.

    At start of crisis we had roughly half the amount of ICU per head population of other eu states?


    hardly have to be mensa material to see how we cpuld be become overwhlemed quicker than other EU countries


  • #2023
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    Deleted User wrote: »
    What kind of twisted logic is that?
    The hospital numbers matter more than the deaths???
    What planet are you posting from??

    You don't get it do you?

    The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

    That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis


  • #2024
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,100 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    I think the next two weeks is peak surge

    Peak; possibly. Surge; and we've blown it so hopefully not.


  • #2025
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    FFS.

    7500 Irish lab cases.
    1000 German lab cases.

    25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

    Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

    Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

    So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

    With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

    Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

    There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

    All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

    You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

    R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.


  • #2026
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    At start of crisis we had roughly half the amount of ICU per head population of other eu states?


    hardly have to be mensa material to see how we cpuld be become overwhlemed quicker than other EU countries

    You didn't say 'EU' countries. Just countries. I think we should be thankful we don't live in India, Nigeria, Bangladesh etc.


  • #2027
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    You don't get it do you?

    The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

    That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis

    There's a tendency here to always pick the worst figures, where possible. Deaths down? Lets obsess about hospital admissions. Not that there is substantial evidence that young people are clogging up the hospitals anyway.


  • #2028
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    FVP3 wrote: »
    There's a tendency here to always pick the worst figures, where possible. Deaths down? Lets obsess about hospital admissions. Not that there is substantial evidence that young people are clogging up the hospitals anyway.

    66% of hospital admissions have been those under 65.


  • #2029
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    very doubtful,

    we'll see in a few days, how bad the spike in deaths reported tuesday/ wednesday will be

    Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?


  • #2030
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    I wonder does the outcome have anything to do with how much of the virus we are exposed to. Say one person was infected by 20,000 viruses and someone else 50,000 spores.

    Yes, very much so.


  • #2031
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    FVP3 wrote: »
    You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

    R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.

    Under one, strictly speaking, but the extent that it deviates around one either way has a huge effect on the trajectory of the outbreak. And that's not taking into account imported cases.


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  • #2032
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Mod-Horsesh!t removed


  • #2033
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,100 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?

    Not more deaths but the collection and correlation of the deaths at weekends is slower. Look at the deaths reported by day of the week over the past month.


  • #2034
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Just Saying wrote: »
    Obviously the nursing home clusters are very significant especially in light of the fact that over 50% of our deaths were nursing home residents even though some had been hospitalized prior to their passing.

    It would appear that the figure for nursing home clusters is a cumulative figure from the start.
    It would be fascinating to know how many of these clusters are still current.

    Obviously some of the deaths were from clusters but equally some clusters might have had recoveries.The number with current cases is the key.

    If Tony Holohan said 54% of our deaths were nursing home cases, would those nursing home residents who were moved to hospital prior to dying be classed as part of that 54% NH deaths, or would they go down as hospital deaths?


  • #2035
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Under one, strictly speaking, but the extent that it deviates around one either way has a huge effect on the trajectory of the outbreak. And that's not taking into account imported cases.

    Well yes, a R0 of < 1, is the definite end of the epidemic. A R0 of 1 is pretty much there. ( Note I say of the epidemic not the virus, small numbers of people still get infected).

    The guy I was addressing didn't seem to get that people recover from this. So he kept adding the numbers cumulatively.


  • #2036
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,614 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?

    a delay in reporting up the chain, and then being reported to the public the next day


  • #2037
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    FVP3 wrote: »
    You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

    R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.
    Please provide some evidence (sources) for your assertions, infectivity of those who recover, R0=1 means it's beaten, likelihood of a COVID-19 vaccine.


  • #2038
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    a delay in reporting up the chain, and then being reported to the public the next day

    Does the same theory go for the hospital/ICU admissions?


  • #2039
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Yes that’s correct. The doom and gloomists will see it completely different for sure. Would you have been happier if today’s figures were the same as yesterday’s?

    No.

    Nothing about this ****ty disease makes me happy.

    Every day many people are fighting for there lives in Ireland due to COVID19.

    These people fight and die alone. I won’t celebrate that mate.


  • #2040
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    You don't get it do you?

    The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

    That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis

    I get that you didn't read or understand my post before you replied to it. It had nothing to do with the availability of ICU beds. You can analyse those numbers all you like but you won't change the fact that most of the people killed by this virus are old people.


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  • #2041
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    DebDynamite wrote: »
    If Tony Holohan said 54% of our deaths were nursing home cases, would those nursing home residents who were moved to hospital prior to dying be classed as part of that 54% NH deaths, or would they go down as hospital deaths?

    Fridays presser, he said that infections that originated from NHs but died in hospital were nursing home deaths,


This discussion has been closed.
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