Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Stheno · 11-04-2020 11:38PM

Beasty wrote: »

So, if this 30% "false negative" is a reasonable estimate, then that puts a very different light on things

Let's say 15% of tests are positive, and there are no "false positives"

That means 85% of tests are "false negatives"

30% x 85% = around 25%

What that would mean is of those we have tested, 15% are positive and 25% are false negative. ie 40% of those tested are actually positive.

It also means the tests are picking up a lot less than half of those infected. That creates a massive issue for the HSE and its staff.

It also means that our cumulative 9,000 or so positives translates to 24,000 "real" positives

Of course, this is severely limited because not everyone with symptoms are tested. We could easily have double and probably a lot more people with symptoms who are really "positive" - Say 50,000. Then there have been suggestions that up to 80% could be asymptomatic. If that is the case we could be nearer 250,000 actual positives or 5% of the population

What this re-emphasises is the need for everyone to social distance. We probably are mostly going to be getting this - some will have had it but never realised, and some may get it in a second or third wave. Yes a vaccine will help, but we may well already have some form of herd immunity by the time one is available (assuming there is some lasting immunity once this virus has been caught by someone)

A German study referenced on here yesterday estimated that total cases worldwide is a fraction of the true number the ireland specific number was that we had found 2.5% of true cases as of March 30 and were already over 100000

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815

Diary of on New York paramedic

12 deaths in one day that he attributes to Covid, neither hospitalised or tested - note the report is quite upsetting

Strazdas · 11-04-2020 11:38PM

Sunday Business Post claims 14,500 people are awaiting test results - not sure how they obtained the numbers

Based on current stats, that would give us something like 2 - 2,500 extra positives

11-04-2020 11:38PM

take everything wrote: »

This virus is a real ****er.
Orders of magnitude deadlier than flu.
Asymptomatic spread.
Diverse in its seriousness sowing almost a misguided nonchalance about it.
And now it doesn't seem to promote much of an antibody response, making immunity uncertain. Or even a vaccine uncertain.

How exactly does that work, if you are asymptomatic how does your body deal with the virus. And is it asymptomatic people who do not produce antibodies. But if you had symptoms and your body had to fight it off then presumably you will have produced antibodies.

froog · 11-04-2020 11:39PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have done my impending doom post for the evening, here are some cats to balance it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY7m5jjJ9mM

i watched all of that. i have no regrets.

Stheno · 11-04-2020 11:39PM

take everything wrote: »

This virus is a real ****er.
Orders of magnitude deadlier than flu.
Asymptomatic spread.
Diverse in its seriousness sowing almost a misguided nonchalance about it.
And now it doesn't seem to promote much of an antibody response, making immunity uncertain. Or even a vaccine uncertain.

We dont actually know how deadly it is tbh

MOR316 · 11-04-2020 11:39PM

Goodfellas on RTE 1...

Love it

Away With The Fairies · 11-04-2020 11:40PM

take everything wrote: »

This virus is a real ****er.
Orders of magnitude deadlier than flu.
Asymptomatic spread.
Diverse in its seriousness sowing almost a misguided nonchalance about it.
And now it doesn't seem to promote much of an antibody response, making immunity uncertain. Or even a vaccine uncertain.

I hope they find a vaccine. Even it means yearly boosters with vaccination certs like our pets get.

Funsterdelux · 11-04-2020 11:40PM

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Lads ye all need to chillax the kax! Sinn Fein +Conor McGregor have got this sorted!!

take everything · 11-04-2020 11:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How exactly does that work, if you are asymptomatic how does your body deal with the virus. And is it asymptomatic people who do not produce antibodies. But if you had symptoms and your body had to fight it off then presumably you will have produced antibodies.

I dunno.
Lasting immunity i mean.
There are reports of reinfection.

11-04-2020 11:43PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Data from the Chinese government and research from Chinese doctors and scientists are different things.

I'm sure it is, but given the level of control and censorship the government has especially according to posters on here who don't trust them on anything else related to covid, would they not tamper with the results of the research before allowing it to be released?

macmahon · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

Beasty wrote: »

So, if this 30% "false negative" is a reasonable estimate, then that puts a very different light on things

Let's say 15% of tests are positive, and there are no "false positives"

That means 85% of tests are "false negatives"

30% x 85% = around 25%

What that would mean is of those we have tested, 15% are positive and 25% are false negative. ie 40% of those tested are actually positive.

It also means the tests are picking up a lot less than half of those infected. That creates a massive issue for the HSE and its staff.

It also means that our cumulative 9,000 or so positives translates to 24,000 "real" positives

Of course, this is severely limited because not everyone with symptoms are tested. We could easily have double and probably a lot more people with symptoms who are really "positive" - Say 50,000. Then there have been suggestions that up to 80% could be asymptomatic. If that is the case we could be nearer 250,000 actual positives or 5% of the population

What this re-emphasises is the need for everyone to social distance. We probably are mostly going to be getting this - some will have had it but never realised, and some may get it in a second or third wave. Yes a vaccine will help, but we may well already have some form of herd immunity by the time one is available (assuming there is some lasting immunity once this virus has been caught by someone)

I don't agree Beasty. This covid19 will die out on a political level.

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope they find a vaccine. Even it means yearly boosters with vaccination certs like our pets get.

I have a friend who is a professor in this area , he opined that it’s a very difficult virus to build a vaccine will be effective , ie that stimulates antibody production , this virus doesn’t stimulate significant antibody production in quite a high percentage of cases , his last words were , “don’t hold your breath”

Nonoperational · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

take everything wrote: »

I dunno.
Lasting immunity i mean.
There are reports of reinfection.

There are a few... Which may not be reinfection but a long illness with peaks and troughs.

There are also hundreds of thousands of patients who have recovered and are perfectly fine now and haven't gotten reinfected.

Strazdas · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How exactly does that work, if you are asymptomatic how does your body deal with the virus. And is it asymptomatic people who do not produce antibodies. But if you had symptoms and your body had to fight it off then presumably you will have produced antibodies.

From what I understand, you would build up resistance to the virus with or without symptoms - the presence of these antibodies would be the indicator you had had the virus

derossi · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

I made a comment on the last thread regarding a supermarket a member of my family runs and that there has been no staff off at this point at anytime with illness. That comment was only as a point towards negativetivity other than anything else. Up to today no member of staff is off sick. Could be a case there is no virus propagating in the area or there is and who knows. Just a point towards supermarkets and the threat of getting sick. There has to be some sense of realisim at some point where we decide what the future is. As we get out of this combined with testing and contact tracing and risk assessements we can decide how we open the country. My point was only that at this time, this specific supermarket is currently doing well as in all the staff are without Covid in an environment that we all fear it.

take everything · 11-04-2020 11:43PM

Stheno wrote: »

We dont actually know how deadly it is tbh

Have there ever been flu seasons as bad as New York or Italy in recent weeks.
I think many people have seen how deadly it is.

Stheno · 11-04-2020 11:46PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Sunday Business Post claims 14,500 people are awaiting test results - not sure how they obtained the numbers

Based on current stats, that would give us something like 2 - 2,500 extra positives

Simon Harris said today that 30k tests were sent to Germany and just over half were back which would be close to 14.5k?

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:46PM

Strazdas wrote: »

From what I understand, you would build up resistance to the virus with or without symptoms - the presence of these antibodies would be the indicator you had had the virus

We don’t know what levels until we process a lot of data , but there are worrying signs that many people have little or no antibody response to COVID

Martina1991 · 11-04-2020 11:46PM

DevilsHaircut wrote:

Another study of PCR test reliability '...we found a potentially high false negative rate of RTâ€PCR testing for SARSâ€CoVâ€2 in hospitalized patients in Wuhan... Furthermore, the RTâ€PCR results showed a fluctuating trend.'

That still didnt say what platform they used for PCR!

If we're not using the same instrumentation then their study isn't relevant to us.

Strazdas · 11-04-2020 11:47PM

BoatMad wrote: »

I have a friend who is a professor in this area , he opined that it’s a very difficult virus to build a vaccine will be effective , ie that stimulates antibody production , this virus doesn’t stimulate significant antibody production in quite a high percentage of cases , his last words were , “don’t hold your breath”

Something that could happen though is that the virus strain could begin to weaken and have less impact over time - it will probably never be as dangerous as it is now and perhaps into early 2021.

macmahon · 11-04-2020 11:47PM

take everything wrote: »

This virus is a real ****er.
Orders of magnitude deadlier than flu.
Asymptomatic spread.
Diverse in its seriousness sowing almost a misguided nonchalance about it.
And now it doesn't seem to promote much of an antibody response, making immunity uncertain. Or even a vaccine uncertain.

Deadlier than the flu? Source please. Thanks

DevilsHaircut · 11-04-2020 11:48PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

I'm sure it is, but given the level of control and censorship the government has especially according to posters on here who don't trust them on anything else related to covid, would they not tamper with the results of the research before allowing it to be released?

To what end would the Chinese government tamper with studies such as the one I cited, which concluded that 'RT‐PCR test results of pharyngeal swab specimens were variable and potentially unstable, and it should not be considered as the only one indicator for diagnosis, treatment, isolation, recovery/discharge and transferring for hospitalized patients clinically diagnosed with COVID‐19'?

Strazdas · 11-04-2020 11:49PM

BoatMad wrote: »

We don’t know what levels until we process a lot of data , but there are worrying signs that many people have little or no antibody response to COVID

Indeed : many people are questioning whether the antibody test will be some sort of 'magic bullet' or alternatively completely useless to us

Stheno · 11-04-2020 11:49PM

take everything wrote: »

Have there ever been flu seasons as bad as New York or Italy in recent weeks.
I think many people have seen how deadly it is.

Dont know, but until the true rate of infection is known we will not know how deadly covid19 is

DevilsHaircut · 11-04-2020 11:49PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

That still didnt say what platform they used for PCR!

If we're not using the same instrumentation then their study isn't relevant to us.

What platform are we using?

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Something that could happen though is that the virus strain could begin to weaken and have less impact over time - it will probably never be as dangerous as it is now and perhaps into early 2021.

That’s not necessarily the case, the second wave of the Spanish flu was more virulent then the first

I agree that virus don’t want to kill the host , in general, but there is no hard evidence to suggest the mutations will be benign

macmahon · 11-04-2020 11:50PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How exactly does that work, if you are asymptomatic how does your body deal with the virus. And is it asymptomatic people who do not produce antibodies. But if you had symptoms and your body had to fight it off then presumably you will have produced antibodies.

Because you can't catch a virus!

ShineOn7 · 11-04-2020 11:53PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Vaccines and herd immunity might not be real options. Hard eradication looks like it would work. Lockdown s are already in place, why not go the whole hog:

Some patients who recover from COVID-19 develop very few antibodies, a new early-stage study suggests, raising questions over the development of a vaccine and whether people get lasting immunity.

Nearly a third of 175 patients studied produced low antibody levels. In 10 people, antibody levels were so low they could not be detected. https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEAyfi_G51wDeK5hd3WxYPpIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowgNjvCjCC3s8BML6jmwY?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

Interestingly, the levels of antibodies patients produced seemed to correlate with their ages: Middle-aged and elderly recovered patients had higher levels of antibodies. Nine of the 10 of the patients who did not develop detectable levels of coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger.

8% — didn’t have any detectable coronavirus antibodies in their systems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4?amp=&r=AU&IR=T

All of that looks very worrying. If the vaccination doesn't work for this I think we can say goodbye to 10% of the world's population

"Hard eradication looks like it would work"

What would that entail?

A quick Google sees "Disease eradication takes years to achieve and requires a lot of financial investment: smallpox eradication had an estimated cost of $300 million over a 10-year period; polio eradication efforts to date amounted to $4.5 billion"

Source https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases

So throw 100s of Billions of Euros (joint country effort of all major ones) at the fúcker if that's what it takes

old_aussie · 11-04-2020 11:54PM

China F*cked in the head!

China muzzled its Bat Woman:

Beijing authorities hushed up the findings of a scientist who unlocked the genetic make-up of the coronavirus within days of the outbreak – which is vital for tests and vaccines

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210951/Beijing-authorities-hushed-findings-Chinese-scientist.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed

macmahon · 11-04-2020 11:55PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope they find a vaccine. Even it means yearly boosters with vaccination certs like our pets get.

Mmmm! You will regret that statement one day!

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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