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Share Picks 2020

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    #1772
    JoeCole26
    Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭JoeCole26


    bilbot79 wrote: »
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airlines-progr-idUSKCN21S1Y7?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

    Might bail in to aal, delta etc on monday

    AER also one to look at long term. Imo oversold as it stands.


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    #1773
    Static M.e.
    Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Static M.e.


    I would worry about Zoom, i see a lot of people moving back away from it now towards MS Teams, Skype, Webex etc. Even though we all have new Zoom licences.. Just my 2cents and not based on anything else really.

    Well done on VMware and AWS. I expect AWS will only grow stronger from this.


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    #1774
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    With the recent bump on stock prices I am thinking of doing some shorting. With the stimulus measures out of the way I'd expect a slew of negative earnings reports. The two stocks I am looking at are TSLA and Softbank Corp.



    I don't think consumers will be looking to make any big purchases any time soon and the new TSLA truck is a bit of a monstrosity.


    Softbank CEO seems to be in a bit of trouble and has to pledge his shares in Softbank to the banks that lent the group money for WeWork and Oyo. The value of these assets were grossly overestimated....thoughts please before I pull the trigger.


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    #1775
    JMMCapital
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    hobie21 wrote: »
    With the recent bump on stock prices I am thinking of doing some shorting. With the stimulus measures out of the way I'd expect a slew of negative earnings reports. The two stocks I am looking at are TSLA and Softbank Corp.



    I don't think consumers will be looking to make any big purchases any time soon and the new TSLA truck is a bit of a monstrosity.


    Softbank CEO seems to be in a bit of trouble and has to pledge his shares in Softbank to the banks that lent the group money for WeWork and Oyo. The value of these assets were grossly overestimated....thoughts please before I pull the trigger.

    Don't.


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    #1776
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,520 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    NEVER SHORT TSLA

    That is the day 1, lesson 1, of trading 101.


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    #1777
    Shedite27
    Registered Users Posts: 9,370 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    ELM327 wrote: »
    NEVER SHORT TSLA

    That is the day 1, lesson 1, of trading 101.

    Agree, JMMCapital, have a read of this Irish investors experience


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    #1778
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Agree, JMMCapital, have a read of this Irish investors experience

    And Softbank?


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    #1779
    Bob Harris
    Registered Users Posts: 3,462 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    hobie21 wrote: »
    And Softbank?

    It's reads like you were easily dissuaded from shorting TSLA which suggests you hadn't given it much more than superficial consideration, the same probably goes for Softbank. For that reason alone I wouldn't.


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    #1780
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    Hi Bob, I'm going to short TSLA. Why do you think I was dissuaded?

    I know timing is everything, especially when shorting stocks but I just think the time is right.


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    #1781
    Kilboor
    Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    What do you hope to gain from shorting Tesla now? Do you believe they will fall soon or over the long term? If it's the latter I would advise against it.

    When we strip looking at your astrological sign and the price of a gold nugget from Kazakhstan affecting worldwide rare mineral prices, we can understand the true value of a company and that's their output. Tesla have an extremely good product that is loved by consumers, I've driven one, they're great. I always follow the rule of investing in products I like and that people like, Tesla are definitely one of them.


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    #1782
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    Kilboor wrote: »
    What do you hope to gain from shorting Tesla now? Do you believe they will fall soon or over the long term? If it's the latter I would advise against it.

    When we strip looking at your astrological sign and the price of a gold nugget from Kazakhstan affecting worldwide rare mineral prices, we can understand the true value of a company and that's their output. Tesla have an extremely good product that is loved by consumers, I've driven one, they're great. I always follow the rule of investing in products I like and that people like, Tesla are definitely one of them.




    Just wrote a really long response but closed browser window before posting. Dammit. Anyway I managed to convince myself.


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    #1783
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    hobie21 wrote: »
    Just wrote a really long response but closed browser window before posting. Dammit. Anyway I managed to convince myself.


    I'll summerise the points.


    1. Recession. Fewer customers buying cars (esp Chinese market 50% drop already)

    2. The truck. What an ugly machine.
    3. Cash burn, new factories in early stages in Germany China.
    4. P/E of 50.



    Plan is short at 570 and get out at 250.


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    #1784
    all about the mane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    Kilboor wrote: »
    What do you hope to gain from shorting Tesla now? Do you believe they will fall soon or over the long term? If it's the latter I would advise against it.

    When we strip looking at your astrological sign and the price of a gold nugget from Kazakhstan affecting worldwide rare mineral prices, we can understand the true value of a company and that's their output. Tesla have an extremely good product that is loved by consumers, I've driven one, they're great. I always follow the rule of investing in products I like and that people like, Tesla are definitely one of them.

    Tesla may be the new Apple.


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    #1785
    Mantis Toboggan
    Registered Users Posts: 17,713 ✭✭✭✭Mantis Toboggan


    all about the mane wrote: »
    Tesla may be the new Apple.

    Far bigger competition in the automotive world than there was for smart phones in 2007. Tesla still to make decent profit.

    Free Palestine 🇵🇸



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    #1786
    hobie21
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    all about the mane wrote: »
    Tesla may be the new Apple.


    Looking at the truck it's more likely the new DeLorean


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    #1787
    Kilboor
    Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    hobie21 wrote: »
    I'll summerise the points.


    1. Recession. Fewer customers buying cars (esp Chinese market 50% drop already)

    2. The truck. What an ugly machine.
    3. Cash burn, new factories in early stages in Germany China.
    4. P/E of 50.



    Plan is short at 570 and get out at 250.

    Good luck, I have no investments in Tesla currently so will wish you well!


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    #1788
    Timmaay
    Registered Users Posts: 11,394 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    OK 250 is your target, what's your stop loss? Just to warn you if you say you don't have one your going to look like an absolute idiot.

    The problem with shorting Tesla is despite all the fundamentals saying its overvalued there is a massive fan base all of whom are willing to drive on the share price with the dreams of it being the next apple etc, I'd bet it would see 900 again sooner than it would see 250.


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    #1789
    XMG
    Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭XMG


    I have shorted TSLA intraday but would never hold it for any longer than that. Elon is a master of manipulation and often reported numbers don’t really add up. If you’re right you’ll be minted but if you’re wrong, well...


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    #1790
    JMMCapital
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Timmaay wrote: »
    OK 250 is your target, what's your stop loss? Just to warn you if you say you don't have one your going to look like an absolute idiot.

    The problem with shorting Tesla is despite all the fundamentals saying its overvalued there is a massive fan base all of whom are willing to drive on the share price with the dreams of it being the next apple etc, I'd bet it would see 900 again sooner than it would see 250.

    Yup, specially with the likes of Ron Baron,Cathie Wood and that so called "reformed" broker guy pumping it full time on CNBC I can't believe people actually listen to them fools bunch of sheep.

    It's exactly hype by retail investors that's driving it as Chanos said.


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    #1791
    JMMCapital
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    hobie21 wrote: »
    And Softbank?

    No, venture capital is the last place I would want to have money.


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    #1792
    RedRochey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭RedRochey


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Yup, specially with the likes of Ron Baron,Cathie Wood and that so called "reformed" broker guy pumping it full time on CNBC I can't believe people actually listen to them fools bunch of sheep.

    It's exactly hype by retail investors that's driving it as Chanos said.

    That reformed broker guy is very good, works for Ritholtz mgmt, they have a load of blogs, all very good, really like of dollars and data


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    #1793
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    StockTwat29 wrote: »
    That reformed broker guy is very good, works for Ritholtz mgmt, they have a load of blogs, all very good, really like of dollars and data

    Josh Brown ?


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    #1794
    RedRochey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭RedRochey


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    Josh Brown ?

    Ya, haven't seen him on CNBC and yes he does look like a bit of a twat but their blogs and youtube videos are usually good


  • Options
    #1795
    JMMCapital
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    StockTwat29 wrote: »
    That reformed broker guy is very good, works for Ritholtz mgmt, they have a load of blogs, all very good, really like of dollars and data

    You're joking right?


  • Options
    #1796
    RedRochey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭RedRochey


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    You're joking right?

    Like I said haven't seen him on CNBC but their blogs are good


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    #1797
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,043 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    You're joking right?

    Probably not, unfortunately... but at least I now understand where some of his other come from - CNBC (the Fox News of the business world).


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    #1798
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    CNBC and r/wallstreetbets are great for anyone learning to invest.such a wealth of information on there.We are so lucky to have them.


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    #1799
    Bob Harris
    Registered Users Posts: 3,462 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    hobie21 wrote: »
    I'll summerise the points.


    1. Recession. Fewer customers buying cars (esp Chinese market 50% drop already)

    2. The truck. What an ugly machine.
    3. Cash burn, new factories in early stages in Germany China.
    4. P/E of 50.



    Plan is short at 570 and get out at 250.

    Fewer cars will be sold but of those sold Tesla will grow their sales and therefore market share even more.

    The truck has a big following - I wouldn't underestimate it.

    Cash burn for building new factories so they can sell lots of cars and generate more cash.

    P/E is irrelavent.

    If Tsla drops to 250 i'll be looking down the back of the couch for change so I can buy as many as I can.

    The current situation is favourable for tsla in that they will be one of the companies faster able to respond to the market when it picks up with a strong brand, excellent product that is competitively priced.


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    #1800
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    greenfield21 wrote: »
    CNBC and r/wallstreetbets are great for anyone learning to invest.such a wealth of information on there.We are so lucky to have them.

    Are they the best sources of live up to date info? Just wondering as a rookie, don’t know any good sources myself.


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    #1801
    RedRochey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭RedRochey


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Probably not, unfortunately... but at least I now understand where some of his other come from - CNBC (the Fox News of the business world).

    I dont watch CNBC at all, like I said I only read their blogs which usually contain quantitative analysis of previous markets, such as:

    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/03/a-short-history-of-dead-cat-bounces/

    I'm a fairly inexperienced trader so I'm trying to educate myself by reading blogs, if you think there is a better way then maybe you could offer some help instead of trying to make fun of me


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