Share Picks 2020

ELM327 · 09-04-2020 11:33am

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah everyone know the economic fallouts of this crisis will be massive and are not priced-in - but everyone also knows that being right too early isn't too different from being wrong.

Besides the uncertainty about the health crisis and its economic impacts, one big issue to call on what market prices should be is that central banks are getting more and more involved with controlling markets so prices can be disconnected from real value and influenced by political decision and monetary policies.

I think everyone appreciates that a large part of the market based on current and near future projection is irrational based on revenue/eps. It's no good being right now but the market being irrational for 6 months

The best way to profit these days is either (or a combination of both) of the following:

1 - quick trades to capitalise on volatility - even intra day
2 - buying for the long haul stock that you know will be around and more valuable in 3-5 years than current. Think of relatively secure players in their industry with a USP and strong brand value. TSLA, APL, PYPL, Amazon, even perhaps one or two flag carrier airlines or Carnival/MSC/NCLH

Nemeses2050 · 09-04-2020 11:54am

Jim2007 wrote: »

Have a look at the order book... the experienced professionals have left...

Oh I don't doubt it...

Bob24 · 09-04-2020 12:41pm

US weekly unemployment claim figures will be released shortly.

Wondering whether it will have an impact on the market (the horrible figures last week were pretty much ignored).

Bob Harris · 09-04-2020 12:48pm

Bob24 wrote: »

US weekly unemployment claim figures will be released shortly.

Wondering whether it will have an impact on the market (the horrible figures last week were pretty much ignored).

It seems everything has been ignored there for the last week, almost a fiddling while Rome is burning element to it.

voluntary · 09-04-2020 1:04pm

Bad news is often a good news for the markets. Worse the news, more the central banks will print/dilute money.

Bob24 · 09-04-2020 1:19pm

voluntary wrote: »

Bad news is often a good news for the markets. Worse the news, more the central banks will print/dilute money.

Yeah unfortunately you are right (although this can’t keep going forever).

Bob24 · 09-04-2020 1:32pm

Bob24 wrote: »

US weekly unemployment claim figures will be released shortly.

Wondering whether it will have an impact on the market (the horrible figures last week were pretty much ignored).

6.6 million, similar to last week.

Nemeses2050 · 09-04-2020 1:50pm

Another funding round of USD 2.2 trillion coming up...so I guess markets will ignore those employments figures again.

Bob24 · 09-04-2020 2:01pm

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Another funding round of USD 2.2 trillion coming up...so I guess markets will ignore those employments figures again.

Yep ... S&P futures were around -0.5% before the announcement of 6 million new unemployed people, and are now at +0.5%.

voluntary · 09-04-2020 2:05pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah unfortunately you are right (although this can’t keep going forever).

When / If global investors turn back from USD then such money dilution could quickly turn into a hyperinflation. I guess that until there's no inflation they can print money as much as they want.

Bob24 · 09-04-2020 2:07pm

voluntary wrote: »

When / If global investors turn back from USD then such money dilution could quickly turn into a hyperinflation. I guess that until there's no inflation they can print money as much as they want.

Agree ... I think it will happen eventually but since it is Purely based on confidence it is hard to predict when. But if/when it happens, it will be quick with no warning given.

voluntary · 09-04-2020 2:23pm

"De-dollarisation – reducing the dollar’s dominance of global markets – is an inevitable trend that investors should be watching, since the emergence of a multicurrency world will have a big impact on markets and will affect nearly every asset class."
https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/smart-money-de-dollarisation

voluntary · 09-04-2020 2:33pm

"The Irish arm of Debenhams is set to be placed into liquidation, with staff told on Thursday that their jobs are gone."

Expect many, many more companies to follow.

all about the mane · 09-04-2020 3:13pm

voluntary wrote: »

"The Irish arm of Debenhams is set to be placed into liquidation, with staff told on Thursday that their jobs are gone."

Expect many, many more companies to follow.

Think they were in trouble long before this

voluntary · 09-04-2020 3:15pm

I think a lot of retail businesses were struggling already before the virus. Keeping business running on very tight margins.

all about the mane · 09-04-2020 3:21pm

voluntary wrote: »

I think a lot of retail businesses were struggling already before the virus. Keeping business running on very tight margins.

This has just speeded up the move to online.

littlemac1980 · 09-04-2020 3:23pm

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Anymore info on this?

Can't find anything online.

Saw this today:

https://apple.news/ABPiYBMcaTom83mA0sfYkBg

Just says they’re halted pending further news. Interestingly the share price was set to rise the morning they were halted. Wonder what will happen when they end the halt, might be a good bounce or might be a rapid sell-off?

OwlsZat · 09-04-2020 4:26pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

A long term pick of mine Pluristem (PSTI) is going well on the COVID buzz, as is TEVA. The testing shout through here AYTU not so much.

Ah PSTI you almost broke my heart but all is forgiven. Such super science. In time will be the cure for almost everything.

Jim2007 · 09-04-2020 5:28pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Saw this today:

https://apple.news/ABPiYBMcaTom83mA0sfYkBg

Just says they’re halted pending further news. Interestingly the share price was set to rise the morning they were halted. Wonder what will happen when they end the halt, might be a good bounce or might be a rapid sell-off?

When you are an investor in a company where the COO has fabricated the revenue figure, you get the hell out of there as fast as you can. Because you have absolutely no idea of what else might be going on.

The stock may never trade again, it might trade for a few weeks when another investigation is opened etc.... it might go on even longer until the next investigation is opened etc...

MyTax Ireland · 09-04-2020 5:36pm

voluntary wrote: »

I think a lot of retail businesses were struggling already before the virus. Keeping business running on very tight margins.

You're spot on - just saw that the Irish Debenhams is now gone into liquidation. Failed to really get ontop of the online world.

Take Your Pants Off · 09-04-2020 6:34pm

Opinions on UGA they are still a solid buy with lots of upside potential on a 3-6 month horizon.
Also I'm considering USO? They are still down, and in opec meeting, as composed to the other oil companies didn't rise.

Lex Luthor · 09-04-2020 7:01pm

cant call this market, SDRL up over 30% today...

if they dont get above $1 soon they could lose their status on NYSE

voluntary · 10-04-2020 10:40am

I feel that the worse slump can happen when the lockdown and restrictions are taken down. Today people still believe we can go 'back to normal' in a few months. We are going to live with such a denial until restrictions are in place.

JMMCapital · 10-04-2020 3:14pm

Take Your Pants Off wrote: »

Opinions on UGA they are still a solid buy with lots of upside potential on a 3-6 month horizon.
Also I'm considering USO? They are still down, and in opec meeting, as composed to the other oil companies didn't rise.

Stay away from oil this virus/lock down isn't going away anytime soon stop listening to the talking heads saying "oh it's a bargain look at the price surely it will double!", the volatility alone should be enough of a reason.. .

all about the mane · 10-04-2020 6:21pm

JMMCapital wrote: »

Stay away from oil this virus/lock down isn't going away anytime soon stop listening to the talking heads saying "oh it's a bargain look at the price surely it will double!", the volatility alone should be enough of a reason.. .

Using options will help combat the volatility aspect.

Jim2007 · 10-04-2020 6:43pm

all about the mane wrote: »

Using options will help combat the volatility aspect.

It most certainly will not.

Shedite27 · 10-04-2020 7:53pm

Nabbed a nice little profit so far in April but sold about 25% of my shares yesterday evening. The "we have a plan" bounce was nice but earnings season comign up I can see that receding. I don't believe it'll drop anything crazy like some here predict, but could drop 20% from where we are currently.

XMG · 10-04-2020 11:24pm

Shorted every /CL irrationally exuberant pop on Thursday and will be watching it again on Monday. Was some of the easiest money I made this year, or last year for that matter.

bilbot79 · 11-04-2020 12:47am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airlines-progr-idUSKCN21S1Y7?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Might bail in to aal, delta etc on monday

krissovo · 11-04-2020 1:17am

krissovo wrote: »

I am trawling Tech companies at the moment especially Cloud. VMware has tanked and was below $100 on Thursday. Also companies like Zoom will do well from home working.

I bought VMware, Zoom & workday on the 16th March, VMware has been especially kind. I bought at $98 and currently trading at $131. Despite the class action lawsuits their sales given the product are doing well. Zoom I bought at $112 but missed a trick when it peaked at $157 and I should have sold when the security issues came out so they are held for now as they will recover with the new patches. I expected more for workday and bought at $122 thinking it would grow hard but looks like its stuck at $145 as a peak price so will sell soon.

Tech is proving quite resilient, I wish I double downed on amazon as it was in the back of my head as a possible at the time.

Share Picks 2020

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