The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

ShineOn7 · 10-04-2020 2:18pm

Beasty wrote: »

97 reported in 2018/19

Thanks for the link

So in Ireland - in an average year - flu and pneumonia combined account for that many fatalities

If we take the HSE doing the AMA's Best Case Scenario figure of 10,000 fatalities from Covid, quick in the head Maths would make it 100 times more lethal than flu and pneumonia

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 12:01am

Could any Maths or stats people give me the mortality rate (so far) in Ireland for Covid with the:

- Over 60s

- Over 60s with underlying conditions

Thanks

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 12:08am

Boggles wrote: »

This is a "perfect" virus.

The mortality rate for them is between 1 and 2.5 %.

I think Germany with world class health care and spare capacity is running between 1 and 1.5%

So that is probably the figure.

Remove mitigation and the figure balloons.

Maybe a 75,000 - 200,000 dead in Ireland.

Have you started salivating yet?

Rubbing your knees?

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 12:12am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Have you started salivating yet?

Rubbing your knees?

I shouldn't be laughing in such a dark thread but ...

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 12:38am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I shouldn't be laughing in such a dark thread but ...

We seem to be hitting a growth figure of circa 7% in deaths every day. At that rate of increase we could have towards 1,000 deaths by the end of this month. However I don't think we will get there on this first wave, maybe we will. At some point the serious restrictions implemented will kick in and death numbers shall recede.

There will be a second wave and hopefully we are learning our own mistakes here. I don't think it has really got its teeth into other urban areas outside of Dublin, which is great news currently but I think this virus is slow burner, I would not be complacent living in any area, it is coming.

But it so will not get anywhere near the 75,000-200,000 monsieur Doom was prophesising, what a phuckfest, some people get off on the scaremongering. This is not going to be a Zombie Armageddon. We don't even have enough septuagenarians to cover such a number... such waffles.

I know it gets sneered at but over time Herd Immunity will begin to influence how we tackle the spread via numbers on a macro level. It will help to counter growth. Also I think this virus has your number or it doesn't, the way it has rifled through the old persons homes would indicate its' potency, but I think while it is a killer it is also proving harmless to a lot of people. I think a lot more people will have generated Antibodies by now. It cannot last for ever.

Every day we are also learning new ways to cure and tackle the virus. Humans evolve faster than everything else on this planet, we will win.

I reckon somewhere between 2,500 - 3,000 and I seriously hope that is a massive overestimation. Regrettably we cannot currently tell for sure.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 12:55am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

There will be a second wave and hopefully we are learning our own mistakes here.

That was a great post, thanks.

What's this second wave everyone keeps mentioning though? What is leading us to think there will be one?

Is it because Winter = Flu season, so it'll mean fresh Covid too?

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 1:51am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That was a great post, thanks.

What's this second wave everyone keeps mentioning though? What is leading us to think there will be one?

Is it because Winter = Flu season, so it'll mean fresh Covid too?

No I would put it down to basic complacency. At some point in the future a bad decision will be made, we don't know what it will be, but it will lead to a further increase in infections.

For example a hypothetical scenario, by Mid May deaths rates and infection rates have plummeted to say 5 deaths a day for 2 weeks and maybe 100 odd infections a day, the numbers are kind of immaterial. But what will start happening is that other countries will start changing approaches and put simply the political environment can, could or will change as a consequence. But something will change which can lead to further spikes in numbers as a result of human complacency around it, this is inevitable. If say Germany suddenly opens it schools again and this is followed by France and Holland, what do we do then? These type of imponderables will be facing decision makers and throw in pressure from business stakeholders and before you know it the politicians will be looking for a whitewash from the Dept of Health ( usually in the form of a report, externally procured of course ) , which will allow them the make the unenviable decision of opening up the gates again. This will lead to further infections. The virus then becomes a PR exercise for government, it kind of is already, but in 2 months this thing will be a numbers game. During 2nd or 3rd phases of infections the numbers may not be as aggressive initially, but over time they will add up.

I would also slightly worry about the infection getting into " virgin" areas of Ireland which have not yet been exposed. I see the low numbers in Cork and Limerick look fantastic now, but that is because both cities have not been largely exposed to it fully yet. They could both be sitting ducks if the restrictions are lifted rashly. This is anther problem that has been kicked down the street. With the absence of a vaccine the whole Country will face infection sooner or later. That is assuming Dublin survives the current wave.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 2:28am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

That is assuming Dublin survives the current wave.

Thanks for the post

I can't see it wiping out a million people though. Or even 2% (20,000 people) in it

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 2:36am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks for the post

I can't see it wiping out a million people though. Or even 2% (20,000 people) in it

It sure won't, but it could be lethal if you turned your back on it. Look what happened in Bergamo. Dublin is lucky insofar as it saw it coming, but we are not out of the woods yet, it is bad in the city centre.

The 10,000 deaths in the UK are small when you consider the London underground and other transport networks they have. This still leaves me head scratching about northern Italy. I am convinced that it was spreading there in December and they just didn't know it.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 2:39am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The 10,000 deaths in the UK are small when you consider the London underground and other transport networks they have.

True

It's a miracle London aren't as bad as New York given it's dense population and transport system

PommieBast · 13-04-2020 4:33am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

It's a miracle London aren't as bad as New York given it's dense population and transport system

Time (well ONS really) will tell. In the future looking back people will look at different data-sets than what is in front of us now.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 10:08am

PommieBast wrote: »

Time (well ONS really) will tell.

"ONS"?

quokula · 13-04-2020 10:38am

One of two things is true

Testing figures are broadly accurate, which means the curve in Ireland has been flattened. If the current rate is sustained it would take over 10 years for half the population to get infected, plenty of time for vaccines and treatments to be developed.

Or, the testing figures are a huge under-estimate, in which case the 50% of the population being infected that the OP mentioned may be possible, but the vast vast majority will have minimal symptoms and the fatality rate will be same as flu.

The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, but you can't predict a much larger infection rate than measured without also predicting a proportionally lower mortality rate than measured, that's how the maths work.

Additionally there will be no naturally occurring second wave. Some people assume that based on 1918 but this virus is not an influenza, it doesn't mutate at the same rate, and it doesn't look likely to be as seasonal. There will be peaks and troughs based on changing government policies and mitigation measures but there is absolutely no reason to expect a sudden explosion way beyond what we've seen so far.

Hmmzis · 13-04-2020 2:00pm

quokula wrote: »

One of two things is true

Testing figures are broadly accurate, which means the curve in Ireland has been flattened. If the current rate is sustained it would take over 10 years for half the population to get infected, plenty of time for vaccines and treatments to be developed.

Or, the testing figures are a huge under-estimate, in which case the 50% of the population being infected that the OP mentioned may be possible, but the vast vast majority will have minimal symptoms and the fatality rate will be same as flu.

The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, but you can't predict a much larger infection rate than measured without also predicting a proportionally lower mortality rate than measured, that's how the maths work.

Additionally there will be no naturally occurring second wave. Some people assume that based on 1918 but this virus is not an influenza, it doesn't mutate at the same rate, and it doesn't look likely to be as seasonal. There will be peaks and troughs based on changing government policies and mitigation measures but there is absolutely no reason to expect a sudden explosion way beyond what we've seen so far.

Data from Iceland, South Korea and the couple preliminary results from antibody case studies in Italy and Germany would point towards the second point.

It still is more dangerous than the flu, about 3-5x more.

The infection rate/speed would be quite something though.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-04-2020 2:26pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

It's a miracle London aren't as bad as New York given it's dense population and transport system

Still early days, the end of April is perhaps the peak zone for many countries, the uk have now just overtaken China's figure, and now climbed to 6th in the world for confirmed cases.

Some of the press were saying they're expected to overtake Italy and Spain by the time the 1st wave is over. Ldn has stabalised (for the time being), but the NW is climbing fast, think there was something like 100 houseparties in Madnchester the other week, mad for it.

Another 4wk lockdown is on the cards for them, to be announced at the weekend, with further economic damage (<-30% GDP, Q2), and the brexitious just 8mths away.

A curious figure is their case-fatality ratio: 12.47% (same as Italy), whereas Ire has 3.47% currently.

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 2:56pm

Clementine Refined Matte wrote: »

Still early days, the end of April is perhaps the peak zone for many countries, the uk have now just overtaken China's figure, and now climbed to 6th in the world for confirmed cases.

Some of the press were saying they're expected to overtake Italy and Spain by the time the 1st wave is over. Ldn has stabalised (for the time being), but the NW is climbing fast, think there was something like 100 houseparties in Madnchester the other week, mad for it.

Another 4wk lockdown is on the cards for them, to be announced at the weekend, with further economic damage (<-30% GDP, Q2), and the brexitious just 8mths away.

A curious figure is their case-fatality ratio: 12.47% (same as Italy), whereas Ire has 3.47% currently.

The figures from China are garbage, it is pointless using them as comparison. Even if you are against CCP bashing you need to be cynical about their results considering what we are seeing globally now. It is going to be a long summer for the developing world, I really hope the speculation about it not able to survive on surfaces above 26 degrees are true, it might save a lot of lives. Otherwise it will get very nasty in the developing world.

I am also incredibly sceptical of the Brit bashing that gets posted on this site. It could yet turn out that the Cobra group's approach to the crisis was shrewd in the long term, we cannot tell yet. Personally I suspect that countries who lockdown later generate large asymptomatic victims, this batters initial figures in the short term but does allow vast members of society ( possibly up to 30 million UK citizens at the 50% asymptomatic assumptions being bandied about) to generate antibodies which will help them to get back to normal with a greater expediency.

In contrast Ireland got locked up quicker. This is great for now and has saved lives initially, but will not have a created as many asymptomatic sufferers so we are more reliant on vaccines, treatments and other cures in the long term.

Only time will tell which approach was the better one ( if we ever really find out ).

PommieBast · 13-04-2020 3:33pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"ONS"?

Office of National Statistics. They will do things like compare the overall death rate with the same period in previous years, but that stuff takes time.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 3:41pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The figures from China are garbage

A million percent this. They should never, ever be used when applying Maths to any of this

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 4:28pm

quokula wrote: »

Additionally there will be no naturally occurring second wave.

Source?

The HSE worker doing the AMA has said that 80% (about 8,000 people) of Ireland's fatalities will be from a second wave this Winter

trapp · 13-04-2020 4:33pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Source?

The HSE worker doing the AMA has said that 80% (about 8,000 people) of Ireland's fatalities will be from a second wave this Winter

Think it's safe to not to take his opinions as fact.

He seems helpful but extremely over dramatic.

He has no experience in virus or epidemics in any case.

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 4:38pm

trapp wrote: »

Think it's safe to not to take his opinions as fact.

He seems helpful but extremely over dramatic.

He has no experience in virus or epidemics in any case.

How "safe" exactly?

trapp · 13-04-2020 4:43pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

How "safe" exactly?

Just because he's a consultant working for the hse doesn't make him Lord Almighty on this topic.

From reading his posts he's far too dramatic.

There is a medical professional in England trending on twitter suggesting they'll be back to normal in the summer.

Nonsense but some are believing him.

Memnoch · 13-04-2020 4:47pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The figures from China are garbage, it is pointless using them as comparison. Even if you are against CCP bashing you need to be cynical about their results considering what we are seeing globally now. It is going to be a long summer for the developing world, I really hope the speculation about it not able to survive on surfaces above 26 degrees are true, it might save a lot of lives. Otherwise it will get very nasty in the developing world.

I am also incredibly sceptical of the Brit bashing that gets posted on this site. It could yet turn out that the Cobra group's approach to the crisis was shrewd in the long term, we cannot tell yet. Personally I suspect that countries who lockdown later generate large asymptomatic victims, this batters initial figures in the short term but does allow vast members of society ( possibly up to 30 million UK citizens at the 50% asymptomatic assumptions being bandied about) to generate antibodies which will help them to get back to normal with a greater expediency.

In contrast Ireland got locked up quicker. This is great for now and has saved lives initially, but will not have a created as many asymptomatic sufferers so we are more reliant on vaccines, treatments and other cures in the long term.

Only time will tell which approach was the better one ( if we ever really find out ).

Unfortunately, there are very few countries where you can actually trust the figures.

The figures from the United Kingdom will forever be tainted. They have severely under tested at the height of the epidemic which is when mortality is highest. It's quite possible that twice the number recorded or more are and will actually pass away without ever been included in the statistics.

Increased testing after the wave has passed will yield a lot of negative results and dramatically push down the mortality rate. Which I believe is the entire point of them not testing.

The British government have botched their response in every way conceivable resulting in a lot of unnecessary loss of life. The only thing they have shown themselves to be competent at is lying, falsifying the numbers and evading responsibility for what can be described at the mildest as gross criminal negligence.

Also, criticism of the behaviour of individuals in the British government is not Britt bashing any more than criticism of the Saudi government is Muslim bashing.

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 5:22pm

Memnoch wrote: »

Unfortunately, there are very few countries where you can actually trust the figures.

The figures from the United Kingdom will forever be tainted. They have severely under tested at the height of the epidemic which is when mortality is highest. It's quite possible that twice the number recorded or more are and will actually pass away without ever been included in the statistics.

Increased testing after the wave has passed will yield a lot of negative results and dramatically push down the mortality rate. Which I believe is the entire point of them not testing.

The British government have botched their response in every way conceivable resulting in a lot of unnecessary loss of life. The only thing they have shown themselves to be competent at is lying, falsifying the numbers and evading responsibility for what can be described at the mildest as gross criminal negligence.

Also, criticism of the behaviour of individuals in the British government is not Britt bashing any more than criticism of the Saudi government is Muslim bashing.

As I said in my original post I am not into Brit bashing. I am interested in the numbers though. From reading your post and assessing its' tone I suspect you are fond of Bir bashing, congratulations.

Given you are an expert in all thing UK, what evidence do have of them lying?

" Gross Criminal Negligence"

, nice.

Memnoch · 13-04-2020 5:43pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

As I said in my original post I am not into Brit bashing. I am interested in the numbers though. From reading your post and assessing its' tone I suspect you are fond of Bir bashing, congratulations.

Given you are an expert in all thing UK, what evidence do have of them lying?

" Gross Criminal Negligence" , nice.

Pretty much every single thing that they have come out with on this has shown to have been false. Whether it was cooperating with the EU on ventilators and "missing the email on cooperation", the availability of PPE (or maybe all the doctors, nurses, their associations and care home staff are lying about it), the amount of testing that they have been doing, or indeed the mortality figures.

At some point you have to reach the obvious conclusion that these are not repeated innocent mistakes when the total effect of these seems to be to absolve them of responsibility for what is going on.

Tens of thousands of people are dying due to their deliberate inaction at the outset. Gross criminal negligence is the least that can be said about it. Especially considering this administration was quoted as arguing to “let old people die”.

Notably Cummings has faded into the background since this revelation.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/22/no-10-denies-claim-dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/22/no-10-forced-deny-claims-dominic-cummings-said-pensioners-die/

If the “Britt bashing” defense/deflection is the best you can come up with then it is pretty pathetic.

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 5:51pm

What evidence do you have of them lying?

I respect that you might hate Britain and this is a fantastic opportunity for you to have a bash at them.

But please respect that I am Irish and that I am entitled to my own opinions and value systems. One of the thing I value most is the search for truth, that does not make me " pathetic".

Blut2 · 13-04-2020 6:02pm

The most recent/comprehensive research suggests a fatality rate of 0.37%:

One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

So, not hugely off a very bad 'normal' flu year. Especially given our median age of death is still around 80 - this just isn't killing young people who don't have serious underlying health conditions.

BloodBath · 13-04-2020 6:10pm

I've said from the outset that the mortality rate was less than 1% when the lunatics were saying 10-20% and I'll stick by that.

It's in the region of 0.4 to 0.7% depending on region. Still far deadlier than the flu.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 6:19pm

trapp wrote: »

Think it's safe to not to take his opinions as fact.

He seems helpful but extremely over dramatic.

He has no experience in virus or epidemics in any case.

Compared to some randomer on Boards I'll take the opinion of a HSE worker who: A) has been ahead of this since day one and

was verified of his job by Boards

Jurgen Klopp · 13-04-2020 6:24pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The most recent/comprehensive research suggests a fatality rate of 0.37%:

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

So, not hugely off a very bad 'normal' flu year. Especially given our median age of death is still around 80 - this just isn't killing young people who don't have serious underlying health conditions.

It also syncs up with Iceland's study.

3.7x deadlier than the flu. Worse than the 1959 Asian Flu pandemic of 0.27% but not as bad as the 1970 Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 0.5% which killed 100k Americans and 80k UK citizens

Interestingly the HK flu was considered the second wave of Asian flu after 10 years

I believe like swine flu we'll see a vaccine waves through this time too and I have a feeling a lot will chance it. Was talking to some friends and family that said based off the 1 in 55,000 developing narcolepsy from the swine one it "was good odds"

So I'd def be open to this UKs September vaccine being made available for those who want to try it

Ficheall · 13-04-2020 6:45pm

threeball wrote: »

Why on earth would we have 100 days of 30 deaths when we only had one or two days with that so far and we're nearing the peak.

What makes you think we're near the peak? Unless you're using "nearing" in the "getting nearer to", as opposed to having passed it..

PommieBast · 13-04-2020 6:57pm

Memnoch wrote: »

It's quite possible that twice the number recorded or more are and will actually pass away without ever been included in the statistics.

In the longer-term the ONS will trawl all the records, including non-hospital ones, but how they classify deaths after-the-fact will be contentious. One category will be people who died from things other than C19 because they could not get treatment.

VinLieger · 13-04-2020 7:04pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

What evidence do you have of them lying?

I respect that you might hate Britain and this is a fantastic opportunity for you to have a bash at them.

But please respect that I am Irish and that I am entitled to my own opinions and value systems. One of the thing I value most is the search for truth, that does not make me " pathetic".

They aren't reporting any nursing home deaths related to it or any deaths that were not tested positive for covid prior to dying.

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1249726979529748480?s=19

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 7:08pm

VinLieger wrote: »

They aren't reporting any nursing home deaths related to it or any deaths that were not tested positive for covid prior to dying.

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1249726979529748480?s=19

What evidence do you have of them telling lies?

VinLieger · 13-04-2020 7:09pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

What evidence do you have of them telling lies?

Its called a lie of omission, by excluding potentially thousands of deaths related to it they are lying about the true death count

IAMAMORON · 13-04-2020 7:21pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Its called a lie of omission, by excluding potentially thousands of deaths related to it they are lying about the true death count

Ok, it is fair enough accusation, I get where you are coming from.

What do you think about the German mortality rates? I understand that they are massaging their own figures. If you die of a heart attack after surviving the virus through ventilation treatment they are listing the cause of death as a heart attack. Similarly they are listing pneumonia as the cause of death as opposed to Covid 19.

I cannot explain the enthusiasm of governments to play down the figures, it lacks respect towards victims.

The UK nursing home issue is main piece tonight on Channel 4, I doubt it is going to be a cover up for long. One final thing on this " expose" that C4 are going with, the ONS in the UK are publishing the correct figure, so while the government press machine are massaging figures the actual ONS figure are being released, so there is no official cover up, but there is a PR exercise. That is worth substantiating.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 7:27pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Could any Maths or stats people give me the mortality rate (so far) in Ireland for Covid with the:

- Over 60s

- Over 60s with underlying conditions

Thanks

I posted this late last night. Now that there's more people online, any feedback would be great

Ta

Diarmuid · 13-04-2020 7:32pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I cannot explain the enthusiasm of governments to play down the figures, it lacks respect towards victims..

Because it's not that easy to attribute cause of death.

If someone is 85 in a nursing home and suffering from a terminal illness. They contract covid19 and dies 3 weeks later, Did they die because
1. They died of old age (10% risk of death in that year)
2. They had cancer
3. They contracted covid19

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-04-2020 7:38pm

Ireland's case fatality rate from Covid-19 is now almost 4%, the latest data shows.
Some data suggest the uk could be triple this, around 12% which is nothing to be sneezed at.

The data published in the Health Protection Surveillance Centre's epidemiology report is based on figures up to midnight on Friday 10 April.
It shows that of the 8,496 confirmed cases of the virus, 329 people had died, giving a case fatality rate of 3.9%.

Any idea that this WuFlu is <1% (as suggested above) is bonkers.
When you consider the nature of the epicurve, demand surges, spread within nursing homes, lack of PPE, lack of medical staff (again their own high infection rates, even with some PPE).
Fact is demand vs supply means that many old folks, comprimised folks will all be labelled as 'DNR' if there is a queue of younger folks waiting for the 10-14 day stint on machines.

Wave2, circa November, is an great unknown.

Blut2 · 13-04-2020 7:47pm

Clementine Refined Matte wrote: »

Ireland's case fatality rate from Covid-19 is now almost 4%, the latest data shows.
Some data suggest the uk could be triple this, around 12% which is nothing to be sneezed at.

The data published in the Health Protection Surveillance Centre's epidemiology report is based on figures up to midnight on Friday 10 April.
It shows that of the 8,496 confirmed cases of the virus, 329 people had died, giving a case fatality rate of 3.9%.

Any idea that this WuFlu is <1% (as suggested above) is bonkers.
When you consider the nature of the epicurve, demand surges, spread within nursing homes, lack of PPE, lack of medical staff (again their own high infection rates, even with some PPE).
Fact is demand vs supply means that many old folks, comprimised folks will all be labelled as 'DNR' if there is a queue of younger folks waiting for the 10-14 day stint on machines.

Wave2, circa November, is an great unknown.

The reason Ireland's fatality rate is so high is because our testing rate is so low. We're not testing huge numbers of people who have the virus, which makes our infection rate look significantly lower than it is, which means the fatality rate looks far higher than it is in reality.

In any closed environment, ie the German study above, or in Iceland, or in the Italian town of Vo, where extensive population testing was actually carried out the fatality rate was under 0.5%.

Its not even remotely debatable which figure is more accurate if you have any understanding of basic statistical analysis.

Ficheall · 13-04-2020 8:02pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I posted this late last night. Now that there's more people online, any feedback would be great

Ta

People don't know the mortality rate. Anyone who tells you they know the numbers you're asking for is lying.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 8:25pm

Clementine Refined Matte wrote: »

Wave2, circa November, is an great unknown.

I've yet to see anyone on here provide a link that backs up this talk that another wave this Winter is a given

trapp · 13-04-2020 8:28pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've yet to see anyone on here provide a link that backs up this talk that another wave this Winter is a given

the HSE consultant that posts on here says so.

And he has no expertise in this area at all yet some take his word as gospel.

BloodBath · 13-04-2020 8:33pm

Clementine Refined Matte wrote: »

Ireland's case fatality rate from Covid-19 is now almost 4%, the latest data shows.
Some data suggest the uk could be triple this, around 12% which is nothing to be sneezed at.

The data published in the Health Protection Surveillance Centre's epidemiology report is based on figures up to midnight on Friday 10 April.
It shows that of the 8,496 confirmed cases of the virus, 329 people had died, giving a case fatality rate of 3.9%.

Any idea that this WuFlu is <1% (as suggested above) is bonkers.
When you consider the nature of the epicurve, demand surges, spread within nursing homes, lack of PPE, lack of medical staff (again their own high infection rates, even with some PPE).
Fact is demand vs supply means that many old folks, comprimised folks will all be labelled as 'DNR' if there is a queue of younger folks waiting for the 10-14 day stint on machines.

Wave2, circa November, is an great unknown.

Not as bonkers as your claim that 5% of the worlds population would be dead by the end of the summer from this. 350 million people.

You have no clue about how any of these numbers work and you're still ignoring the fact that there are far more non confirmed infections than confirmed ones.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-04-2020 8:36pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've yet to see anyone on here provide a link that backs up this talk that another wave this Winter is a given

Nobody said it's a given, but a reasonable expectation, for WuFlu to merge with the rest of the seasonal sneezes (Inf A/B, even remnants of ye olde H1N1 still kicking about), even a bit of Norovirus, might fill hospitals even before any (potential) wave 2.

If Ire's 4% fatality rate isn't valid, then maybe someone should tell them (Health Protection Surveillance Centre's {epidemiology report}) not to publish, and go by casual armchair guesstimates as better indicators instead https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0413/1130250-case-fatality-rate/

Jurgen Klopp · 13-04-2020 8:39pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The reason Ireland's fatality rate is so high is because our testing rate is so low. We're not testing huge numbers of people who have the virus, which makes our infection rate look significantly lower than it is, which means the fatality rate looks far higher than it is in reality.

In any closed environment, ie the German study above, or in Iceland, or in the Italian town of Vo, where extensive population testing was actually carried out the fatality rate was under 0.5%.

Its not even remotely debatable which figure is more accurate if you have any understanding of basic statistical analysis.

Honestly I just don't know anymore, these studies are placed in front of them but they don't want to listen and keep screaming hysterical.

These studies are far more reliable than nations just testing those that turn up to hospital or have to meet a high symptom threshold which makes testing not worth a feck at this stage bar confirming it for a hospital patient so they can be approved certain treatments

It's just a lot of people love the misery of it all I think. It's not even playing it down either, it's still deadly for a lot at 3.7 times more potent than any flu but it's a big difference to the 1 to 6% rate some people have been panicking over

Hopefully more and more studies will continue to show the same. Then again don't expect the media to carry it as it will reduce the panicked clicks.

ShineOn7 · 13-04-2020 8:39pm

trapp wrote: »

the HSE consultant that posts on here says so.

And he has no expertise in this area at all yet some take his word as gospel.

I've seen many more than him saying it and in other places than Boards too.

As said, I'd also listen to him before many others on here on the subject

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-04-2020 8:43pm

BloodBath wrote: »

the fact that there are far more non confirmed infections than confirmed ones.

So any sources of fact for this so called fact, or is a bit of 'speculation'?

The summer isn't over yet (has'nt even started yet). You have to admit the response has been dramtic to curb the spread, nearly 2bn people on an effective lockdown.

Q2 for many countries is going to be a negative 20/30% GDP, if economies hadn't of been closed the results would have been nasty indeed.
Many CMO's predicted 60-80% total populaiton infection at start of year, it's now looking less that that due to severe measures.

Wave2 for end of 2020 is a great unknown (without a time machine) it may pass by, or it could be worse, mutation is another risk.

Hmmzis · 13-04-2020 8:57pm

Clementine Refined Matte wrote: »

Nobody said it's a given, but a reasonable expectation, for WuFlu to merge with the rest of the seasonal sneezes (Inf A/B, even remnants of ye olde H1N1 still kicking about), even a bit of Norovirus, might fill hospitals even before any (potential) wave 2.

If Ire's 4% fatality rate isn't valid, then maybe someone should tell them (Health Protection Surveillance Centre's {epidemiology report}) not to publish, and go by casual armchair guesstimates as better indicators instead https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0413/1130250-case-fatality-rate/

It's a numbers game. They publish only what they have available.
Since the other papers from Germany and Italy still need peer review, they can't put that into an official statement.
If Ireland would have the capacity to test like Iceland, we'd be seeing similar CFR rates as them. The more you test, the more you find the milder cases or even asymptomatic ones. The Iceland data set also shows that about 50% of cases do not have any symptoms at all.

In Ireland you need a minimum of 2 symptoms to qualify for a referral to a test centre. That skews our CFR rate to be higher, since that is calculated from only confirmed tests.
The IFR value is far more valuable when setting out policy decisions and capacity requirements in hospitals, as it counts all infected people.

Italy during their peak had to resort to hospital admission tests only, so heir CFR looks catastrophic, as they missed all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
Their IFR is most likely above the 0.37% indicated by the German study and Iceland's data since they did run out of ICU capacity. How much exactly? Impossible to tell right now, only wide scale antibody testing will reveal that number.

Jurgen Klopp · 13-04-2020 9:02pm

You have to remember too a population with nearly 1 in every 4 over 65 is gonna really fcuk you with this too.

That's 15m over 65 like :eek:

The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

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