CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Ficheall · 08-04-2020 03:51PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Looks like the peak of European daily cases occurred on the 1st of April now.

The numbers from Spain and Italy had gone down since then - other countries are still on the up. Why do people keep calling "peak" from f*ck all data?

Ace2007 · 08-04-2020 03:52PM

domrush wrote: »

It’s 1% of people who are infected, not 1% of the entire population

So if we do nothing, and all go back to work in the morning, how many do you think will get infected?

duffman13 · 08-04-2020 03:52PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes. Because they haven't a clue what the exit plan looks like.

I dont think anyone does really.

Norway is probably our closest comparison all be it we are about a two weeks behind them roughly. I would watch them and see what happens tbh, that and obviously Austria who have announced partial reviews of their shutdown.

We can learn from these and go with it.

Strazdas · 08-04-2020 03:53PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

It isn’t about the % death rate, it is about our healthcare system being able to cope with this illness alongside everything else it does. It simply can’t manage the increase of sick patients and their needs alongside a functioning health system.

Also, it means many health professionals would contract the virus (not necessarily at work, but out in the general community). This would add even more pressure onto the health service which would already be buckling.

wakka12 · 08-04-2020 03:53PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

So if we do nothing, and all go back to work in the morning, how many do you think will get infected?

About 2/3 of the population

wakka12 · 08-04-2020 03:54PM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Still no where near the amount of deaths we get every single winter from common flu...A 1% perecent death rate for this amount of disruption is ridiculous SARS AND MERS disease had a death rate between 25-34%...This so called pandemic is way over blown for what it is...the death rate would be even lower the the 1% if it weren't for the fact that all the victims were very old and very sick already

Old and sick people are people. Their deaths count, you dont just discount them, the mortality rate of a disease isnt calculated based on it's effect only on young healthy people.

kilkenny31 · 08-04-2020 03:56PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

After going out for a walk at lunch and seeing what people were at in that limited time it pretty clear we are going to have a spike again in two weeks time after Easter. Lots of people visiting and we saw two grannies doing Easter egg deliveries to their grandchildren.

This weekend is going to be a disaster.

I'm getting tired of statements like this. People made the same comments when there was a few videos of people on the beach two weeks ago. "Look at them all outside, were going to be like Italy in two weeks". But we didn't end up like Italy. Now we have people complaining about families walking three abreast and their neighbor who came back with shopping without any gloves on. We wont see a spike in two weeks. We will likely see a fall in two weeks.

There is a balance. We are doing a good job. Give people a break nobody is perfect and most people are doing their very best.

bekker · 08-04-2020 03:56PM

duffman13 wrote: »

A faxed Prescrption needs a physical copy posted in afterwards however it will suffice for the patient. If you contact your usual chemist, they have been given permission to dispense longer than the validity of your previous prescrption. They can also dispense up 10 days emergency supply as opposed to 5 previously.

Healthmail is not new, it is however chronically underused but this is starting to see more use now since Covid-19. Sooner the better we go to eprescribing in GPs. It will take a lot of volume out of surgeries for repeat prescriptions

Thanks for the clarification, was just going from personal experience and a passing reference on one of the briefings.

Totally agree on e-prescribing, but it will need strong regular re-evaluation guidelines and protocols in place beforehand.

Ace2007 · 08-04-2020 03:56PM

wakka12 wrote: »

About 2/3 of the population

Ok so, 3.3million people.

how many need hospital treatment - say 5% - so around 165k -

So on top of everything else, we would have 165,000 people needing healthcare and you guys on here think that we can accommodate that no problem?

Rob A. Bank · 08-04-2020 03:57PM

Ficheall wrote: »

The numbers from Spain and Italy had gone down since then - other countries are still on the up. Why do people keep calling "peak" from f*ck all data?

Because this is a daily snapshot at 8am of all the reported cases in Europe.

It is most certainly an underestimation but it is useful to see the shape of the infection curve in Europe, and the results of the mitigation efforts in all the countries combined.

Ace2007 · 08-04-2020 03:57PM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I'm getting tired of statements like this. People made the same comments when there was a few videos of people on the beach two weeks ago. "Look at them all outside, were going to be like Italy in two weeks". But we didn't end up like Italy. Now we have people complaining about families walking three abreast and their neighbor who came back with shopping without any gloves on. We wont see a spike in two weeks. We will likely see a fall in two weeks.

There is a balance. We are doing a good job. Give people a break nobody is perfect and most people are doing their very best.

We ended up with 36 deaths yesterday

frillyleaf · 08-04-2020 03:58PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Also, it means many health professionals would contract the virus (not necessarily at work, but out in the general community). This would add even more pressure onto the health service which would already be buckling.

Yes the healthcare system would completely collapse. Once things are set up in a way it will be managed I feel things will go back to normal

08-04-2020 03:59PM

domrush wrote: »

It’s 1% of people who are infected, not 1% of the entire population

OK, 25,000.

Ficheall · 08-04-2020 03:59PM

JDD wrote: »

If we really wanted to keep the infection rate low while opening up the restrictions somewhat, surely it would make more sense to allow only two visits per household to the supermarket every week, and then allow people to travel to the beach/park/countryside wherever that may be? There must be a much higher chance of catching it indoors rather than outdoors, and the supermarket must be absolutely rife with it, since that's the only place people can go right now. I know we had full intentions of just doing One Big Shop a week, but I find, because we're at home all the time, that we're topping up every day or couple of days.

Sounds like you realise you're part of the problem?

mloc123 · 08-04-2020 04:00PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Old and sick people are people. Their deaths count, you dont just discount them, the mortality rate of a disease isnt calculated based on it's effect only on young healthy people.

You need to consider how many of these people would have died anyway this year. The figures from a few days ago indicated that 20 people died in ICU and 150 outside that, I assume these 150 are nursing home deaths.

It might sound heartless, but people go into nursing homes to die.. generally. I would like to see stats on the average term somebody stays in a nursing home before dying.

We will not know the real death rate of this for a year or so, when we look at the number of deaths per month/year compared to previous years.

08-04-2020 04:01PM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

That is with everyone infected. Left to its own devices its unlikely that more than 50-60% of the population would get infected. Plus the death rate is likely to be a lot less than 1%.

Any data that show this will be significantly less than 1%? I know it wont be anywhere near the 3-5% talked about earlier in the outbreak, but 1-1.5% is not unreasonable unless we get data to show otherwise

Ficheall · 08-04-2020 04:03PM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

We are doing a good job.

So where do you reckon we rank at a deaths per capita at the moment?

Ace2007 · 08-04-2020 04:04PM

mloc123 wrote: »

You need to consider how many of these people would have died anyway this year. The figures from a few days ago indicated that 20 people died in ICU and 150 outside that, I assume these 150 are nursing home deaths.

It might sound heartless, but people go into nursing homes to die.. generally. I would like to see stats on the average term somebody stays in a nursing home before dying.

We will not know the real death rate of this for a year or so, when we look at the number of deaths per month/year compared to previous years.

No, the reason why the majority end up in a nursing home is because they are no longer able to look after themselves at home, and for all sort of reasons families don't want to or aren't able to care for their parents/relatives.

I would say when you are looking at said statistics, get a list of many get visitors etc and ensure that they are still part of the family and cared for etc, loneliness is a major killer - which is why this time is so hard for those elderly people living alone.

is_that_so · 08-04-2020 04:05PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Your talking about normality?? you'd swear we are 3 months through these restriction and virus, and not 3 weeks.

What about the 1% of the time, just think if 99% of the Irish population did what they were told, we would still have around 50,000 ignoring the rules - that's a lot of people that could potential get sick and spread the infection.

Why not just stay indoor and have the walk/run in a 2km radius. The directive clearly stated do not leave your home unless for work, medical, food or exercise reasons, sitting in the park, or going to the beach is none of them.

Do you want us to have 100 deaths a day before people will do what the medical experts recommend?

Most people doing most of the things, most of the time is the CMO mantra on this. 100% is impossible. They seem "encouraged" by compliance but it's not as if they don't need to remind people every day to keep it up.

wakka12 · 08-04-2020 04:06PM

UK deaths released

England 828 (201 of which were in London)
Soctland 70
Wales 33
NI 5

936 deaths in the UK in hospitals. I believe it is the highest daily total in Europe in a single day when excluding nurshing/home deaths.

46 of the 828 patients in England who died had no known health conditions

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 08-04-2020 04:08PM

How is there so many nursing home cases? Aren't people not allowed visits currently?

BanditLuke · 08-04-2020 04:08PM

wakka12 wrote: »

UK deaths released

England 828 (201 of which were in London)
Soctland 70
Wales 33
NI 5

936 deaths in the UK in hospitals. I believe it is the highest daily total in Europe in a single day when excluding nurshing/home deaths.

I thought France reported almost 1400 yesterday.

c.p.w.g.w · 08-04-2020 04:08PM

wakka12 wrote: »

UK deaths released

England 828 (201 of which were in London)
Soctland 70
Wales 33
NI 5

936 deaths in the UK in hospitals. I believe it is the highest daily total in Europe in a single day when excluding nurshing/home deaths.

Which when you consider our numbers, hospital deaths seem to a smaller proportion of your deaths...imagine what the UK numbers would be if they were recording them as we do?

YFlyer · 08-04-2020 04:09PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Aye, we need to get the bioweapons labs working on a virus that kills the irredeemably stupid.

The link here shows the 1st page of an old paper. It is to see if there are any biochemical differences between intelligent people and idiots. The researchers measured the phosphate levels in the subjects bloods. It was determined that the idiots have higher phosphate levels compared to everyone else.

Has potential..lol

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/73/1890/316.1

wakka12 · 08-04-2020 04:09PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I thought France reported almost 1400 yesterday.

Maybe Im wrong but was a lot of that increase yesterday not from adding nursing home deaths? France was reporting 400-500 hospital deaths for a few days before that, would be surprising if deaths jumped by such a huge amount

kilkenny31 · 08-04-2020 04:10PM

Ficheall wrote: »

So where do you reckon we rank at a deaths per capita at the moment?

It's not a good way of measuring this virus yet. Its still to early. That only comes relevant when a sizable portion of the population contracts the virus.

duffman13 · 08-04-2020 04:11PM

mloc123 wrote: »

You need to consider how many of these people would have died anyway this year. The figures from a few days ago indicated that 20 people died in ICU and 150 outside that, I assume these 150 are nursing home deaths.

It might sound heartless, but people go into nursing homes to die.. generally. I would like to see stats on the average term somebody stays in a nursing home before dying.

We will not know the real death rate of this for a year or so, when we look at the number of deaths per month/year compared to previous years.

Between 2 and 4 years, the majority of people are over 85 in nursing homes! I would dispute the assumption that people go there to die. People go there to have a social outlet, some go there for specialised care.

You seem to be getting confused with a hospice, where people actually go to die

BanditLuke · 08-04-2020 04:11PM

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

How is there so many nursing home cases? Aren't people not allowed visits currently?

Huge numbers of agency carers and nurses a lot of them living 5-6 in a house with others moving from one nursing home to another. No proper PPE either. Was always going to be ground zero

BanditLuke · 08-04-2020 04:12PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Maybe Im wrong but was a lot of that increase yesterday not from adding nursing home deaths? France was reporting 400-500 hospital deaths for a few days before that, would be surprising if deaths jumped by such a huge amount

Didn't realize that thanks

duffman13 · 08-04-2020 04:14PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

We ended up with 36 deaths yesterday

Which is massively high however we seem to be relatively transparent counting these things.

France - Werent counting nursing homes till recently
UK - Numbers only include those in hospitals
Italy - Only used numbers who had been tested, if patients died with Covid symptoms they may or may not have been recorded. (Have a look at Lombardy in particular.

Numerous examples all over the world. The inclusion here of nursing homes seems to be a bit against the grain of whats happening elsewhere

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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