CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

hotmail.com · 08-04-2020 01:30PM

UK figures huge today.

Assetbacked · 08-04-2020 01:30PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

So the Italians care for their elderly relatives at home, and in Ireland we send them to nursing homes.

I still think we’re going to see a large increase in both cases and deaths in the coming week.

There could be a fair few deaths from the nursing home clusters, rather than from those who are not in nursing homes.

08-04-2020 01:30PM

JDD wrote: »

Genuine question here. What are the chances, really, of catching a virus off someone sitting near you in a park, or walking past you up a hill, even if the area has a good few people around?

If we really wanted to keep the infection rate low while opening up the restrictions somewhat, surely it would make more sense to allow only two visits per household to the supermarket every week, and then allow people to travel to the beach/park/countryside wherever that may be? There must be a much higher chance of catching it indoors rather than outdoors, and the supermarket must be absolutely rife with it, since that's the only place people can go right now. I know we had full intentions of just doing One Big Shop a week, but I find, because we're at home all the time, that we're topping up every day or couple of days.

I just can't understand the outrage at people walking on the beach or up the hills before the full restrictions came in. Surely to God the chances of catching anything off a passerby outdoors is virtually nil? And if we're all to be doing this for another three months, there's going to have to be some relaxing of the rules, even in circumstances where the R0 rate hasn't dropped below 1, because otherwise you're going to find people flouting them altogether.

How do you enforce it? Do we get printing presses running to print permits that get stamped at a supermarket and the Gardai have to check everyone at a park that they're on their first visit of a week?

SharpshooterTom · 08-04-2020 01:31PM

I know Northern Ireland's small but they're doing the best of the UK countries per capita wise.

2.84% of the UK population but only 1.1% of the UK deaths.

nj27 · 08-04-2020 01:32PM

JDD wrote: »

Genuine question here. What are the chances, really, of catching a virus off someone sitting near you in a park, or walking past you up a hill, even if the area has a good few people around?

I've been wondering that myself. It seems to me that if you're likely to catch the virus walking past people on the street etc then it would be basically impossible to stop it spreading without martial law. I don't think it spreads quite as easily as that, given the number of cases we have relative to what you'd expect if it hopped from person to person during a brief encounter. That's not to say a cough in your direction, or onto a surface you later touch, couldn't result in you catching it.

I think the main reason for anger at people for going to parks etc is that once you have people gather in any area the chances are you'll have groups of people sitting together (possible with a bag of tins) and basically replacing the now closed socialising environments with the country's green spaces which really defeats the purpose of these measures.

08-04-2020 01:37PM

Strumms wrote: »

We will see extensions as long as people are not adhering to social distancing, as long as people are being selfish...” ahhh I’ll just go over to xyz person, see if they are ok “ “ ohhh I have to drop an extra blanket to xyz I’m worried about them”... you couldn’t give a shît about people being ok or blankets, you want to ‘talk’.... clowns, lift the fückin phone. :rolleyes:

I hope its data rather that perception of adherence to social distancing that drives the decision. Infections rate, ICU admissions, Deaths and R0 should be the decisive factors. Not Johnny taking his dog for a 3k walk, no matter how much of an a**hole Johnny is.

Strazdas · 08-04-2020 01:39PM

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I know Northern Ireland's small but they're doing the best of the UK countries per capita wise.

2.84% of the UK population but only 1.1% of the UK deaths.

Their numbers seem much more in line with ours. It seems our island has dodged a bullet compared to the big one on the right.

Seamai · 08-04-2020 01:40PM

sonofenoch wrote: »

UK could have more deaths than Italy, Spain and Germany combined by August

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

That prediction graph is pretty frightening, not peaking for another 9 or 10 days, then staying above 2000 deaths a day for another few, I hope that it's the worst case scenario, and things might be quite as bad for them, if it does track those figures it's going to be much worse than what we've seen in Italy.

owlbethere · 08-04-2020 01:41PM

sonofenoch wrote: »

UK could have more deaths than Italy, Spain and Germany combined by August

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

That was Boris Johnson's herd immunity approach on this ☹️.

I think Leo and FG were going to take a similar path to the UK of herd immunity because there was no action whatsoever from our government until about the 9th or 10th of March. Thankfully we got somewhat lucky and our government began to listen to the professionals speaking out about this and began to implement measures to slow this down.

08-04-2020 01:41PM

Hooter23 wrote: »

The fact that Germany has tested around a million people has has such a low death rate proves the the real death rate of the virus is even lower than what is being reported...Fake news

Death rate in Germany now at 2%. Not that low is it?

Funsterdelux · 08-04-2020 01:44PM

Are the pubs open on good friday?

weisses · 08-04-2020 01:44PM

Beasty wrote: »

Just did a search - he had not been mentioned in the 8 and a half hours before you decided to do so

There have been 7 mentions in the 2 and a half hours since you posted it. If you don't want to be part of discussions mentioning him, may I suggest you don't mention him yourself:P

Kudos for being able to use the search function

Strazdas · 08-04-2020 01:45PM

owlbethere wrote: »

That was Boris Johnson's herd immunity approach on this ☹️.

I think Leo and FG were going to take a similar path to the UK of herd immunity because there was no action whatsoever from our government until about the 9th or 10th of March. Thankfully we got somewhat lucky and our government began to listen to the professionals speaking out about this and began to implement measures to slow this down.

That is simply not true. There is not a shred of evidence Ireland ever considered going down the 'herd immunity' route.

MrMusician18 · 08-04-2020 01:46PM

After going out for a walk at lunch and seeing what people were at in that limited time it pretty clear we are going to have a spike again in two weeks time after Easter. Lots of people visiting and we saw two grannies doing Easter egg deliveries to their grandchildren.

This weekend is going to be a disaster.

Vicxas · 08-04-2020 01:46PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Are the pubs open on good friday?

Course they are, what a silly question

JRant · 08-04-2020 01:46PM

Beasty wrote: »

If this had been in hospitals at that time with no isolation precautions in place we would surely have had a hell of a lot more cases and indeed a lot more deaths. Healthcare workers would have been particularly exposed without adequate PPE. It seems to me to be only over the past few weeks we are finding those on the frontline being affected

They tend to measure hospital numbers over the winter by numbers on trolleys, which was slightly higher than usual but not massively so

I'm not saying it was definitely here as we have no real idea when it arrived into the country. I remember reading that Australia had a first wave that passed without a huge problem but when it reappeared a few weeks later it seemed to much more aggressive. Could be all mumbo jumbo for all I know but it's fascinating how it seems to hit certain areas harder than others. Just goes to show how little we know about this virus to date.

When the dust settles there will be a new playbook on how not to deal with a pandemic, which can only be a good though.

jackboy · 08-04-2020 01:49PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

After going out for a walk at lunch and seeing what people were at in that limited time it pretty clear we are going to have a spike again in two weeks time after Easter. Lots of people visiting and we saw two grannies doing Easter egg deliveries to their grandchildren.

This weekend is going to be a disaster.

Why didn’t you call the guards on the grannies?

stephenjmcd · 08-04-2020 01:49PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

After going out for a walk at lunch and seeing what people were at in that limited time it pretty clear we are going to have a spike again in two weeks time after Easter. Lots of people visiting and we saw two grannies doing Easter egg deliveries to their grandchildren.

This weekend is going to be a disaster.

Can only speak for my own area when I say I've not seen any of that. People are out for shopping etc and they're walk, haven't seen house visits or anything like that.

Firstly those over 70 shouldn't be out, so were the grandparents over 70 ? If they aren't then theres nothing wrong with standing outside someones house once your observing the social distancing

Seamai · 08-04-2020 01:49PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Are the pubs open on good friday?

A big fat no, it's going to be the driest Good Friday you've ever experienced, no pubs, no parties, no clubs where you can get a sneaky pint. It will be worse than 50 years ago except there will be no stations either.

duffman13 · 08-04-2020 01:51PM

owlbethere wrote: »

That was Boris Johnson's herd immunity approach on this ☹️.

I think Leo and FG were going to take a similar path to the UK of herd immunity because there was no action whatsoever from our government until about the 9th or 10th of March. Thankfully we got somewhat lucky and our government began to listen to the professionals speaking out about this and began to implement measures to slow this down.

You think? ::pac: I havent seen anything to suggest we were ever considering the above.

Seriously, there is one man leading the way on our response and its the CMO. He has come across exceptionally well and done a very good job. Granted there have been some mistakes (like every country in the world) specifically the nursing homes but the response has been good overall. It has been a measured response as much as it could be and fair play to him.

Funsterdelux · 08-04-2020 01:51PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

After going out for a walk at lunch and seeing what people were at in that limited time it pretty clear we are going to have a spike again in two weeks time after Easter. Lots of people visiting and we saw two grannies doing Easter egg deliveries to their grandchildren.

This weekend is going to be a disaster.

What do you mean grannies doing easter egg deliveries, did they not hear that Simon Harris gave the easter Bunny the go ahead?

SharpshooterTom · 08-04-2020 01:55PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Their numbers seem much more in line with ours. It seems our island has dodged a bullet compared to the big one on the right.

Deaths per million (approx):

England - 114
Wales - 78
Scotland - 67
Republic of Ireland - 43
Northern Ireland - 41

Tacitus Kilgore · 08-04-2020 01:56PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Can only speak for my own area when I say I've not seen any of that. People are out for shopping etc and they're walk, haven't seen house visits or anything like that.

Firstly those over 70 shouldn't be out, so were the grandparents over 70 ? If they aren't then theres nothing wrong with standing outside someones house once your observing the social distancing

Social visits aren't encouraged in any form though as per latest guidelines, people are only supposed to leave their house for - emergencies, shopping for essentials, exercise, and caring for people who are cocooned/need assistance.

Calling round for a chat is not one of these things...

Rob A. Bank · 08-04-2020 01:57PM

Some levity...

A Coronavirus Karaoke session to hopefully lift the spirits.

stephenjmcd · 08-04-2020 01:58PM

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Social visits aren't encouraged in any form though as per latest guidelines, people are only supposed to leave their house for - emergencies, shopping for essentials, exercise, and caring for people who are cocooned/need assistance.

Calling round for a chat is not one of these things...

Yes I understand that, my point is for example if they live local and are walking within the 2k then they can stop outside. Theres nothing to stop someone who's out walking being at the other end of someones garden

duffman13 · 08-04-2020 02:00PM

JRant wrote: »

I'm not saying it was definitely here as we have no real idea when it arrived into the country. I remember reading that Australia had a first wave that passed without a huge problem but when it reappeared a few weeks later it seemed to much more aggressive. Could be all mumbo jumbo for all I know but it's fascinating how it seems to hit certain areas harder than others. Just goes to show how little we know about this virus to date.

When the dust settles there will be a new playbook on how not to deal with a pandemic, which can only be a good though.

On the first point regarding Australia, they believe the cruise ship that docked in Sydney did a lot of damage. Looking at bringing charges against the owners of the Ruby Princess after they disembarked passengers in Sydney. Over 600 cases came from the ship and 10 deaths.

There was an article somewhere which suggested they traced the infection to Europe and it was slightly different to the strain previously found. I cant find the article now so I may have totally misread it.

As regards the playbook, the nature of different viruses means there probably can never be a playbook but we sure as hell will be a lot quicker at shutting borders etc

gabeeg · 08-04-2020 02:00PM

owlbethere wrote: »

That was Boris Johnson's herd immunity approach on this ☹️.

I think Leo and FG were going to take a similar path to the UK of herd immunity because there was no action whatsoever from our government until about the 9th or 10th of March. Thankfully we got somewhat lucky and our government began to listen to the professionals speaking out about this and began to implement measures to slow this down.

To be fair to them, the govs terrible early response was most likely due to ignorance rather than laissez faire cold heartededness.

As soon as they had that come to Jesus moment, they have put public health first.

owlbethere · 08-04-2020 02:00PM

duffman13 wrote: »

You think? ::pac: I havent seen anything to suggest we were ever considering the above.

Seriously, there is one man leading the way on our response and its the CMO. He has come across exceptionally well and done a very good job. Granted there have been some mistakes (like every country in the world) specifically the nursing homes but the response has been good overall. It has been a measured response as much as it could be and fair play to him.

They were slow to order the cancelling of the parades. I think it was around about the 9th or 10th of March when they ordered the cancelling of any parades. Many of us here saw what was going on around Europe and the parades and should have been cancelled before that IMO. They were definitely putting economic activity ahead of the health and wellbeing being of the nation. I do think they were going to go down the road of herd immunity. The CMO has been excellent.

Snickers Man · 08-04-2020 02:03PM

The WHO is to blame!!!!

Seems like President Trump and his willing media allies Fox/Sky News around the world are holding the WHO up as the scapegoat for America's misery, at least in as much as it pertains to this virus.

Several news reports and opinion peaces that show how the president is keen to deflect attention away from his own pathetic shortcomings and blame "the foreigners" for America's misfortune.

RTE is reporting that Trump wants to cut US funding for WHO because of the virus, and Fox News in Austalia has already waded in with an opinion piece in support of the Trumpian line.
Elsewhere, Fox opinion spouters like Judge Jeannine Pirro are describing Trump as a "War leader" and absolutely the best man to have in the front line at this time.

There's no doubt that lines are being spun for our consumption by those sections of the media who are in Trump's pocket.

If you've never heard of the World Health Organisation (WHO) before now, you're going to hear a lot about them soon.

It's all their fault, you know :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Gynoid · 08-04-2020 02:04PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-52210273/coronavirus-please-learn-from-wuhan-s-mistakes

At this link there is a short video from some people in Wuhan, which has just lifted lockdown after 76 days. Sweet people. Basically they are saying learn from them, make the sacrifice to stop an infectious disease

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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