The Chinese Big Lie

Deleted User wrote: »

Hilarious.

Ahh well, I find the thread to infested with morons... but I won't pick out names here.

It's amazing how bad the quality of posts become when schools are closed. Makes me shudder to think what they're teaching in schools. Definitely not logical or critical thinking.

It is kinda cute though just how naive many posts are. Although it's sad too, to see just how little people understand about international law, and how it applies (or doesn't apply) to the big boys in the world.

And you are the Oracle I suppose. With posts beyond reproach. Get a life with this narcacisstic bullsh1t.

Theres plenty of ways to make China pay and you don't need courts. They are totally dependent on Australia and others for raw material. They are totally dependent on the EU and US to buy their product. You can start to move manufacturing home from certain key areas. China have a terrible record ripping off IP for a start and copying it.

Leaving the volume of manufacturing that we do in Chinas hands is only inviting disaster. In Europe almost all of eastern europe would relish the opportunity to produce those products and they have a history in doing so. America could for once stop screwing their neighbours to the south and favour trade in those countries which at the same time reduces the immigration issues.

Theres loads of options besides basically handing the keys of the castle to china and telling them to have at it.

Deleted User wrote: »

Scared? haha.

Let me point out the difference between us. I've lived in China for over a decade. I know the people and culture pretty damn well, and I'm also fairly familiar with the way their government works both internally and how it deals with foreigners (that being the US or you/me).

Am I scared? Nope. I'm aware of the very real risks involved. The CCP has been running propaganda exercises since it's inception, and while people have moved away from the blind worship of Mao, they're still incredibly nationalistic. Something I find most Europeans have forgotten, and so, underestimate when it comes to other nationalities.

China is a superpower in all but name. It's an economic giant. Not perfect but they're heads and shoulders above everyone else except the US. They're a military powerhouse, in terms of it's land/air forces, having been aimed at countering US advantages for four decades, since they've been expecting a war with them sometime in the future. Their navy is pretty pathetic but they're improving that too.

I feel that most Europeans who talk big about foreign affairs or international law, seem to rely on the US to enforce their beliefs, but the US has changed considerably since the invasion of Iraq. Their military has morale issues due to being forced into policing roles, which it wasn't designed for, it's got major problems with force projection for it's conventional armies, and it's economy is no longer strong enough (not yet anyway) to really support a war against a major player like China or Russia. Never mind that socially it's torn by race and politics, so it's doubtful that they have the actual will to persecute a war over an extended period... a war bringing home serious amounts of body bags, in addition to an enemy fully capable of bombing the US mainland.

I'm aware of the very real risks associated with China. I'm aware that pushing for punishments of China will likely push them to cut off ties with western nations, which in turn, can only help to boost the internal influence of the military, who, in turn have always wanted Taiwan.

So.. not scared. Cautious... practical and realistic. You should try it sometime.

That is an excellent and honest post. Bravo. I mean that btw.
It is not only honest but accurate.

The masses just don't get it about China.

Deleted User wrote: »

They have an internal marketplace of roughly 1.4 billion (that's the old figure, and wasn't even accurate back then). They've also got a market for their goods in the rest of Asia, and Africa.

You seem to think that China is reliant on foreign markets or foreign businesses. Few foreign businesses are in China, except for Korean or Japanese business. Western businesses tend to be small scale, or retail outlets selling western products in China to Chinese consumers. Employment wise, the factories serving western businesses are nearly all Chinese owned, so they could be re-purposed for other products needed in different markets.

Losing access to Western markets would be a pain, but something they could live with.



I have a Chinese girlfriend. That's better by miles. :rolleyes:



Nope. My posts are open to debate... because I explain my logic, rather than making simplistic statements.



China has vast sources of resources within the Chinese mainland to draw upon. They've been importing because they're aware that such resources are finite and it's better to take from foreign countries now... and so they'll be in a stronger position when such resources become scarce abroad.

They're not totally dependent on anyone. Except perhaps for the importation of food since they no longer are capable of producing enough food, due to land being destroyed by pollution. Still, I'm not sure you're going to get Russia to play ball with your punishment of China...



And?



Sure, they could. And it's immaterial to the discussion on how that would affect China. They're not dependent on the West as a market for goods. They've got an emerging population within their own borders that outnumbers consumers in the West, and they've still got access to India and other countries.



Sure, there are. But those ways won't involve seeking financial compensation that will never be paid, or expecting China to fall simply because westerners choose not to do business with them.

China will change. It already is changing. Given some patience, the wet markets will be mostly removed due to modernization, and as more poor gain useful incomes to uplift them away from the need of such markets. There's already a animal rights movement growing in China regarding exotic meats, and now, there's a greater awareness of the health risks.

Thumping your chest and calling for punishment is not going to get the Chinese to do anything. Believing that it will, just shows how little you understand their national culture. Have some patience, and within 2-3 decades, most wet markets will be closed, and we'll see China be more similar to S.Korea. Not perfect, but pretty damn good too.

More rational for them to cope with.
The idea of moving production of goods to eastern europe isn't gonna happen for lots of it. Pay, conditions and EU regulations on the work place will ensure that your 50 cent tat will now be 3.50 next time you are in Dealz.

Re the Chinese figures, most estimate the fatality rate for covid19 is about 1% and the population of China wouldn't be particurly old, certainly not like Italy.

They reported 3,300 deaths. So the actual number of cases was likely at least 330,000. However Chinese testing was shoddy at best. At one stage they didn't even bother with proper tests, just put you down as covid positive if you displayed symptoms. Like with Italy, thousands died without ever being tested or making it to hospital. Its likely deaths were are least 10,000 and real cases close to 1 million.

But all of this is estimates as the Chinese aren't exactly known for their transparancy. We will probably never know the full scale of it.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Re the Chinese figures, most estimate the fatality rate for covid19 is about 1% and the population of China wouldn't be particurly old, certainly not like Italy.

They reported 3,300 deaths. So the actual number of cases was likely at least 330,000. However Chinese testing was shoddy at best. At one stage they didn't even bother with proper tests, just put you down as covid positive if you displayed symptoms. Like with Italy, thousands died without ever being tested or making it to hospital. Its likely deaths were are least 10,000 and real cases close to 1 million.

But all of this is estimates as the Chinese aren't exactly known for their transparancy. We will probably never know the full scale of it.

This is possible numbers, but shoddy Chinese or not. What does that make what is going on now in Europe in terms of Shoddyness, what shoddy rating would you give that?

beauf wrote: »

So you've given up the numbers as a lost cause and have moved on to UK Jingoism from who knows where. Nothing less convincing than deflection.

Nah, I am still sticking to the same line as I always have.

Deleted User wrote: »

Few people thought that the US would be bogged down in Iraq. I can't recall anyone suggesting that the Iraqi forces would be able to withstand the US forces. The media pumped up the danger of the Iraqi military to make it sound like the US were going after something much more dangerous, but we are talking about the worlds foremost superpower, both in terms of actual military and military technologies.

So... where are people confusing things about the American military? You made the statement but didn't explain what we're supposedly confused about....

As you said, the media and self-appointed experts. They were all over RTE for example, usually of the left-wing variety, the RBB types. They barely stopped short in cheering for Saddam!

People confuse that the ****show that came after Iraq was conquered was somehow down to their military ineptitude, not the political decision making. It's common in these types of debates.

And... I have no belief that the US has given up it's a desire for world building. Iran is on the menu. They're not going to stop without completely destabilizing the region, although I suspect they'll only do a token gesture at occupation, asking the UN to step in to clear up the mess they leave behind.

What makes you think that? The US as far as I can tell, as zero interest in invading Iran with massive amounts of ground troops and do some nation-building there. It wants regime change of course, but it will want to do it another way, building internal pressure on the regime, rather than go all in.

The American public have zero interest in it either, which is the deciding factor.

the US has no formal alliance with Taiwan.. as far as I know anyway. They never ratified one so that they would be bound to intervene. It was just promoted as such to hold back China.

Perhaps not a 'formal' alliance but certainly they are friends in the region.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

Taiwan also buys plenty of arms from the US, something that annoys the hell out of China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48917705

But, the others..? mutual defense pacts rather than formal alliances. The point being?

I would have thought a mutual defense pact with the US was a good ace to have.

Japan's population is declining, with a growing elderly percentage, and a social antipathy towards any military involvement. It has the best navy in Asia. Hand down. The best. Not much more than that though. S.Korea's Army is pretty small compared to China, and relies on a very good Air-force, but has to keep most of their forces facing N.Korea.

The rest will not get involved, except for Australia. Vietnam hates the US. It'll take the weapon contracts but it'll never ally with the US... no matter how much they hate the Chinese even more.... but you might get India joining if they get to keep the disputed territories on the border.

I get that individually, one nation will not be able to go toe to toe with China, but that is a dangerous game for China. If they do go ahead and pick on one of the weaker nations, say Vietnam or the Philippines, then alarm bells will ring out across the pacific rim because they know, they could be next.
An alliance of the aforementioned nations would certainly prove a stern test to China, especially with arms backing from the US.

The average American or European I doubt cares about this, but with China pushing its weight around in the South China seas and antagonising many countries in the process, and with the rise of Chinese Nationalism, then I can certainly see it eventuating over the next few years or decade that, some mutual defense pack could be signed by many of these nations.

Sure, you can. I could also see Japan, S.Korea, Vietnam, Philippines etc all refusing to get involved. Anti-western sentiment is a growing movement in Asia. It's been there for a while, but it's been increasing over the last few decades. Japan is highly unlikely to get involved in anything that has limited objectives. Also Trump has made conflicting remarks regarding all past "allies".. and whether he wants them or not.

In peacetimes, those sentiments are all fine when you have student protests and the like. The average Japanese, South Korean, or Taiwanese knows that regardless of what Trump says, the Americans have no interest in conquering or engaging militarily with them. They just want to trade with them and be onside against China.

However, a more aggressive China will certainly bring this perceived anti-western, if it exists, (which is a point over-egged imo) into sharp focus.
Again, the past few years has been interesting and I am certainly hearing a lot of concern in the likes of Australia, Japan and South Korea over Chinese actions in HK and on Universities more locally.

True enough, although I suspect that most will not get involved. Even to the point of refusing US forces access to their county. They all know that the Chinese never forget past slights. Nobody will want to join any adventures that does not destroy China completely... and frankly, I highly doubt the West is capable of that. Using Nukes would bring in Russia against the west.

It doesnt have to be nukes, it but it could certainly be economic isolation and marking China as a pariah state.
Most states would stay out of it, but for those with skin in the game, in the pacific rim most of them, knowing that they could be next will certainly cater to their primitive interests and side with the power that has the military might, and that is the US.

As an aside, I was listening to RTE radio over the weekend, and there was a general sense that China being the harmless factory of the world appears to be gone. Those days are over and id expect more and more countries to take a harder line with them as a result. If China doubles down, then it will harm them more than anyone else, imo.