The Chinese Big Lie

McGiver · 05-04-2020 8:10am

Deleted User wrote:

Still, I would see both the US and China as being threats to world stability.

Excellent post, excellent balance. Balanced conclusion

Deleted User wrote:

As for defending "China"... I do. I admit it. I tend to defend the common Chinese people from the outdated stereotyping, and collective responsibility that often gets thrown around on boards. I also do tend to argue certain aspects relating to the government, but I wouldn't be one to defend their concentration camps, work camps, ethnic cleansing, executions, abuse of power, etc. I don't believe that democracy is a viable political system for Chinese people due to their history and culture.. not yet, anyway.

We need to differentiate between Chinese political elite (the regime) and Chinese folks. Similar goes for Russians, generally nice people, but the political elite is absolutely brutal and despicable. I will criticise both regimes / elites as I will any other regime involved in human rights abuses or abuses of power - including the US.

Spot on regarding the system, although if you look around East Asia then I could imagine they could eventually morph into Singapore-like quasi-democratic hybrid regime, (essentially a one party state just not communist).

2u2me · 05-04-2020 8:11am

patnor1011 wrote: »

By the way - every country start fudging the numbers at some stage.

I'm sure the numbers we're getting from just about everywhere should be taken with a pinch of salt. For example currently we are testing whether you died WITH the virus or not, not whether you died FROM the virus. We are not making that distinction.
Some people surely are getting infected but dying from other reasons.

Not only that but the amount of testing done and the efficacy of it are poor.

I wouldnt' say countries are fudging their numbers, I would say they are bumbling them out inadequately.

The unpreparedness of the western nations is gobsmacking considering the scientific literature on this matter.

old_aussie · 05-04-2020 8:16am

Marsden35 wrote: »

WHO = Chinese megaphone.

When I was a teenager the Who was, and still are, more caring about the next generation.

AND I'm sure we wont get fooled again.

2u2me · 05-04-2020 8:22am

Yurt! wrote: »

How do you think the open gathering of evidence that embarrasses the CCP works?

Anybody with a passing knowledge of modern China, and observing the spread of the virus elsewhere, knows their numbers are horsesh*t.

Their numbers are following a similar trajectory to that of South Korea, Japan, etc.. are they lying too?

The reason Russia, Africa etc.. are slow to play catch up is because they are not as connected in the modern world. Just take a look at this image of the corona virus spreading superimposed on an image of international flights.

padser · 05-04-2020 8:34am

2u2me wrote: »

The reason I think it belongs in conspiracy is because there has been no evidence supplied that they are fudging their numbers.

They took draconian measures much sooner than the rest of the world, why would you and most others assume they must be lying? Why can these draconian measures not work at stopping the spread of this virus?

The numbers supplied by China simply don't pass a basic scrutiny.

Consider some basic facts

1) China has 19% of the worlds population
2) yesterday, they had 0.02% of the infections reported

So, to put in context, everywhere else in the world - for every 1000 people who get infected, 1 person gets infected in China.

The China v Ireland comparison yesterday is 5000 to 1. On a per capita basis, China recorded 5000 times less infections than Ireland.

Vs Ireland, The personal restrictions in some parts of China are higher (one person per household allowed out every second day) but the work restrictions are less (factories, warehouses etc are mostly running). Obviosuly in both countries, grocery shops, fuel stations, healthcare, utilities etc are all up and running.

The numbers we got a few days are that contact tracing in ireland has dropped form an average of 20 contacts to 3 - that sounds plausible based on my personal experience. That's an 85% reduction in contacts - it's not really possible to get that much lower.

There is simply no credible way to conclude that the Chinese numbers should be 1/5000 that of Ireland.

05-04-2020 8:36am

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Also, I read something recently that highlighted the cost of smart phones, if smartphones were to be made in Europe and all pieces for the phone sourced in Europe and not Africa or China using child labor or the workers form these countries were paid properly, a smart phone could cost thousands and no ordinary person would be able to afford one. Buying smart phone or a laptop would be like buying a car in terms of cost.
Its not practical. Western countries are too expensive.

I will try to find the link. It was really interesting.

Plenty of competitive stuff made in the West. Look at tesla, Intel, Philips etc. Get property prices and rents down

McGiver · 05-04-2020 8:37am

padser wrote:

There is simply no credible way to conclude that the Chinese numbers should be 1/5000 that of Ireland.

How do you explain Singapore, Korea, Japan?

padser · 05-04-2020 8:39am

McGiver wrote: »

How do you explain Singapore, Korea, Japan?

Singapore, Korea & Japan are putting out credible numbers. They dont have 19% of the worlds population.

Edit - for example. Yesterday South Korea, with 3% of the population of China - recorded 5 times as many infections.

Yurt2 · 05-04-2020 8:40am

2u2me wrote: »

Their numbers are following a similar trajectory to that of South Korea, Japan, etc.. are they lying too?

The reason Russia, Africa etc.. are slow to play catch up is because they are not as connected in the modern world. Just take a look at this image of the corona virus spreading superimposed on an image of international flights.

The numbers in Japan are almost certainly lowballed as they flat out refused to do community testing because they were preoccupied with keeping the Olympics show on the road. Ask an expatriate (or even a Japanese citizen) in Japan if they believe the numbers represent the scale of the infections in country.

China bears unique moral culpability for this as they swiftly hammered healthcare workers and disappeared citizen journalists who attempted to blow the whistle on the severity of the virus.

They reported 30 new infections at the last count. Absolutely bogus. We all know that's crap. South Korea reported triple the number of fresh infections with a population many times smaller and a world class response.

If a Chinese Communist Party member told you it was raining, you'd be advised to look out the window yourself to see if he's telling the truth.

They are the least trustworthy major power in the world, and that's even considering the historic low of the Trump presidency.

2u2me · 05-04-2020 8:45am

padser wrote: »

The numbers supplied by China simply don't pass a basic scrutiny.

Consider some basic facts

1) China has 19% of the worlds population
2) yesterday, they had 0.02% of the infections reported

To be fair this is irrelevant. If they can get the spread rate to less than 1(R0<1) then you can control this virus no matter what the population is.

Vs Irekand, The personal restrictions in some parts of China are higher (one person per household allowed out every second day) but the work restrictions are less (factories, warehouses etc are mostly running). Obviosuly in both countries, grocery shops, fuel stations, healthcare, utilities etc are all up and running.

They locked down a city of 11million people immediately and imposed draconian measures. Not only that but they have a culture of mask wearing. Even small extra measures can cause the curve to flatten. (Or reduce R0<1)

The numbers we got a few days are that contact tracing in ireland has dropped form an average of 20 contacts to 3 - that sounds plausible based on my personal experience. That's an 85% reduction in contacts - it's not really possible to get that much lower.

We are not wearing masks (Even some of our health officials!)and we went into lockdown later.

There is simply no credible way to conclude that the Chinese numbers should be 1/5000 that of Ireland.

Just look at South Korea with numbers even lower. Are they also lying?

Wibbs · 05-04-2020 8:47am

Plus P, Chinese urban populations are significantly more densely packed than Ireland's, with far more common areas and surfaces, so many more routes for infection to spread. Now they do wear more masks and after SARS etc the population are better educated and more likely to get on board in general with protective practices* and authorities are quicker to spring into action, so I can certainly see how places like Taiwan and Korea and Hong Kong would have a slower spread than Europe and the US, and yes even China latterly, but I don't buy their early and overall figures one little bit.

*I even noticed this in a very small way locally. There are two shops I frequent that are managed by Chinese folks and they were masked up and using gloves/hand wash before Paddy's day. They got some static from a couple of customers for it too.

McGiver · 05-04-2020 8:51am

padser wrote:

Edit - for example. Yesterday South Korea, with 3% of the population of China - recorded 5 times as many infections.

Simply because the tested 45 people out of 1000.

So now you've gone down to 5000 times more to 5 times more in an instant. Which one is it?

Yurt2 · 05-04-2020 8:52am

2u2me wrote: »

Just look at South Korea with numbers even lower. Are they also lying?

South Korea's daily count of new infections is multiples of China's.

China's numbers aren't credible.

2u2me · 05-04-2020 8:57am

Yurt! wrote: »

South Korea's daily count of new infections is multiples of China's.

China's numbers aren't credible.

It's a multiple of 2 according to Johns Hopkins yesterdays figures.

But anyway you're comparing apples and oranges. Look at the trends and the curves.

padser · 05-04-2020 8:57am

McGiver wrote: »

Simply because the tested 45 people out of 1000.

So now you've gone down to 5000 times more to 5 times more in an instant. Which one is it?

I dont know if you're deliberately misunderstanding what I wrote - for your sake I hope not as it was reasonably simple.

Yestersay, Ireland recorded 5000 times as many infections as China per capita

Yestersay, South Korea recorded 5 times as many infections vs China in absolute numbers

How that is me moving from 5000 to 5, I really dont know. Firstly its 2 separate countries, secondly one is per capita and other absolute numbers.

uck51js9zml2yt · 05-04-2020 8:58am

Suckit wrote: »

Yeah, knew that when I typed, but i don't know any numbers. It just seemed to make sense to me. I also remember seeing the Chinese frontline walking through the streets blasting them (the streets) with I guess diluted bleach or something.

A few drinks too many tonight. This is the first time in over a year I have stayed in the one place for more than 3 days............. I am cracking up.

You just need to suck it up I'm afraid......pun intended

LessOutragePlz · 05-04-2020 9:00am

2u2me wrote: »

To be fair this is irrelevant. If they can get the spread rate to less than 1(R0<1) then you can control this virus no matter what the population is.

They locked down a city of 11million people immediately and imposed draconian measures. Not only that but they have a culture of mask wearing. Even small extra measures can cause the curve to flatten. (Or reduce R0<1)

We are not wearing masks (Even some of our health officials!)and we went into lockdown later.

Just look at South Korea with numbers even lower. Are they also lying?

They are 100% lying about their numbers.

The difference between the amount of urns that have been delivered versus the "official" death toll is huge!

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-families-should-be-sweeping-graves-now-but-thousands-still-havent-buried-their-dead/2020/04/03/5a6daa50-7234-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html

padser · 05-04-2020 9:02am

2u2me wrote: »

To be fair this is irrelevant. If they can get the spread rate to less than 1(R0<1) then you can control this virus no matter what the population is.

They locked down a city of 11million people immediately and imposed draconian measures. Not only that but they have a culture of mask wearing. Even small extra measures can cause the curve to flatten. (Or reduce R0<1)

We are not wearing masks (Even some of our health officials!)and we went into lockdown later.

Just look at South Korea with numbers even lower. Are they also lying?

Yeah the points re lockdown later I agree with. That's definitely relevant.

Agree that in theory if you controlled it - population would be irrelevant. But every other country (including South Korea which people like to cite) appear to show that controlling it fully is close to impossible.

South Korea numbers are roughly 2 orders of magnitude different from China at the moment. I dont see them as being unbelievable - and I definitely dont see how any basic analysis would equate the two.

cryptocurrency · 05-04-2020 9:04am

Marsden35 wrote: »

You'd have to have been lobotomised to believe the Chinese or Iranian figures.

China has lied every single step of the way and is now using its massive propaganda apparatus to not only appear like the saviours, but to make money from the disaster they lied about. You'll easily spot the CCP agents on forums like this and on Twitter.

And I tell you something, the CCP doesn't feel one iota of guilt, remorse or shame.

Mass casualties to the CCP are water off a duck's back. Bearing in mind Chinese rulers have murdered untold millions without blinking an eye.

Power, dominance and preserving the ruling system are all that matter to the CCP. At any cost.

CCP aside, their numbers are no different to other nations in the region which have got hold of it quick and fast. Look at Vietnam, Lao, Taiwan, Cambodia and Mongolia.
South Korea got hold of it quick.

Blaming China is now just a smoke screen to cover from the gross incompetance shown by the likes of France, UK, USA, Spain etc.. in dealing with this months after they knew. I can see through all that.

The numbers in China my need adjusting a little but the fact remains that it can't be far off. There is 2 Million expats in the country all with access to VPNs (VPNs in China are everywhere) so information can't really be surpressed and nothign really comes out. I was even talking on FB and other social media all the way through to people, some within 150km of Wuhan. None knew of anyone who died, not of the extensive expat community seemed to have died or their Chinese contacts. The virus can't have been trained to avoid the expats for fear of leaks.

Anyways, things seem to be opening back up and even bars open again and now the satellite images cleary show the pollution is back.

We are all watching the same news in Europe and America with horror but I see this more of a crisis of organisation, equipment, preperation and years of underfunded, underpaid, underappreciated health care systems.

Allowing the politicians to turn the focus away from this and back to China is a tactic to diminish them from responsibility and you'd be foolish to fall for it.

Plus the dog-whistling racism that is creeping out now in the most surprising of corners during this crisis shows that half of society is only a few lockdown days away from becoming the most odious of people.

It's been a great enlightener.

2u2me · 05-04-2020 9:06am

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

They are 100% lying about their numbers.

The difference between the amount of urns that have been delivered versus the "official" death toll is huge!

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-families-should-be-sweeping-graves-now-but-thousands-still-havent-buried-their-dead/2020/04/03/5a6daa50-7234-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html

I read both stories(WaPo is behind a paywall) and it seems the only evidence seems flimsy at best. I'm happy to change my mind if new evidence arises but right now the only evidence for China fudging their numbers is highly circumstantial.

padser · 05-04-2020 9:09am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

CCP aside, their numbers are no different to other nations in the region which have got hold of it quick......
South Korea got hold of it quick.
.

I'm sorry - but this is just nonsense.

Taking South Korea as an example- the numbers are more than two orders of magnitude different!

South Korea recorded 5 times more infections yesterday than China on a population size of 3% as large as China.

In what world is that "numbers are no different" ??????????

LessOutragePlz · 05-04-2020 9:11am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

CCP aside, their numbers are no different to other nations in the region which have got hold of it quick and fast. Look at Vietnam, Lao, Taiwan, Cambodia and Mongolia.
South Korea got hold of it quick.

Blaming China is now just a smoke screen to cover from the gross incompetance shown by the likes of France, UK, USA, Spain etc.. in dealing with this months after they knew. I can see through all that.

The numbers in China my need adjusting a little but the fact remains that it can't be far off. There is 2 Million expats in the country all with access to VPNs (VPNs in China are everywhere) so information can't really be surpressed and nothign really comes out. I was even talking on FB and other social media all the way through to people, some within 150km of Wuhan. None knew of anyone who died, not of the extensive expat community seemed to have died or their Chinese contacts. The virus can't have been trained to avoid the expats for fear of leaks.

Anyways, things seem to be opening back up and even bars open again and now the satellite images cleary show the pollution is back.

We are all watching the same news in Europe and America with horror but I see this more of a crisis of organisation, equipment, preperation and years of underfunded, underpaid, underappreciated health care systems.

Allowing the politicians to turn the focus away from this and back to China is a tactic to diminish them from responsibility and you'd be foolish to fall for it.

Plus the dog-whistling racism that is creeping out now in the most surprising of corners during this crisis shows that half of society is only a few lockdown days away from becoming the most odious of people.

It's been a great enlightener.

You forgot to mention the bit where they covered up the initial outbreak and silenced any doctors that diagnosed covid-19 and brought it to people's attention.

Can you even contemplate how many deaths could have been prevented if they had been honest from the very beginning of this outbreak?

Yet we're supposed to believe that it's other countries that are playing the blame now in the midst of the crisis, that notion is absolutely laughable.

We are simply stating facts and when all this dies down the fact that China could have acted a lot sooner to stop the spread of the virus should not be forgotten!

Yurt2 · 05-04-2020 9:12am

2u2me wrote: »

It's a multiple of 2 according to Johns Hopkins yesterdays figures.

But anyway you're comparing apples and oranges. Look at the trends and the curves.

If we're comparing apples and organges why did you draw the comparison in the first instance.

One is a country with a population with of 50m with a free press, democracy accountability and an open and transparent testing and reporting regime.

The other is a country of 1.5bn with the exact opposite set of circumstances.

2u2me · 05-04-2020 9:18am

padser wrote: »

Yeah the points re lockdown later I agree with. That's definitely relevant.

Agree that in theory if you controlled it - population would be irrelevant. But every other country (including South Korea which people like to cite) appear to show that controlling it fully is close to impossible.

South Korea numbers are roughly 2 orders of magnitude different from China at the moment. I dont see them as being unbelievable - and I definitely dont see how any basic analysis would equate the two.

Well its just a guess but perhaps South Korea currently have an R0 roughly equal to 1 and China perhaps has theirs less. This to me is both possible and believable.

If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

LessOutragePlz · 05-04-2020 9:18am

2u2me wrote: »

I read both stories(WaPo is behind a paywall) and it seems the only evidence seems flimsy at best. I'm happy to change my mind if new evidence arises but right now the only evidence for China fudging their numbers is highly circumstantial.

How about the fact that they have changed the definition of a covid-19 infection 8 times? Would that not suggest that they are using that tactic to change/control the number of new infections that they are reporting?

"It was the eighth different definition of what constitutes a COVID-19 infection in China’s official statistics since the outbreak began in late December, with critics arguing that the lack of clarity has made it harder for other nations to adequately understand and prepare for the disease."

https://time.com/5813628/china-coronavirus-statistics-wuhan/

cryptocurrency · 05-04-2020 9:18am

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

You forgot to mention the bit where they covered up the initial outbreak and silenced any doctors that diagnosed covid-19 and brought it to people's attention.

Can you even contemplate how many deaths could have been prevented if they had been honest from the very beginning of this outbreak?

Yet we're supposed to believe that it's other countries that are playing the blame now in the midst of the crisis, that notion is absolutely laughable.

We are simply stating facts and when all this dies down the fact that China could have acted a lot sooner to stop the spread of the virus should not be forgotten!

I thought about this and tried putting other nations in their shoes. I can't see how any would reacted quicker to a virus that they didn't know what it was. It was local to Wuhan and the disconnect between city level leadership and national is quite huge, the place is vast. There is people saying if only we had known sooner but that is just another smokescreen. Two weeks sooner? a Month? they could have fixed it in China they say; then they sit on their hands for months and can't implement the same magic strategy from the "if only we had know sooner" policy on their own countries. To me it seems they are just totally full of it. Watching the handling since kinda confirms it.

cryptocurrency · 05-04-2020 9:24am

Being honest, I think number 10 are happy to let all this China talk go on as the focus is taken away from the mess of their handling. I even found the clap by the politicians distasteful as they cheer nurses on £22k a year off to work with fe"" all gear.

LessOutragePlz · 05-04-2020 9:25am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I thought about this and tried putting other nations in their shoes. I can't see how any would reacted quicker to a virus that they didn't know what it was. It was local to Wuhan and the disconnect between city level leadership and national is quite huge, the place is vast. There is people saying if only we had known sooner but that is just another smoke screen. Two weeks sooner? a Month? they could have fixed it in China they say; then they sit on their hands for months and can't implement the same magic stragegy from the "if only we had know sooner" policy on their own countries. To me it seems they are just totally full of it. Watching the handling since kinda confirms it.

So let me get this straight you're justification for China lying about the initial outbreak and covering it up is that other countries wouldn't have been able to react any quicker???

You can't be serious?

I don't think other countries would have lied about it to start with!

All this nonsense your talking about a smokescreen is just another way of shifting the focus away from the fact that this crisis would not have been as bad as it is now if China had been honest from when the initial outbreak occured.

cryptocurrency · 05-04-2020 9:29am

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

So let me bet this straight you're justification for China lying about the initial outbreak and covering it up is that other countries wouldn't haven't been able to react any quicker???

You can't be serious?

I don't think other countries would have lied about it to start with!

All this nonsense your talking about a smokescreen is just another way of shifting the focus away from the fact that this crisis would not have been as bad as it is now if China been honest from when the initial outbreak occured.

I just don't see how they knew what they were looking at. There was this "flu" in Italy before christmas and it was cleary Covid19 and the Italians just looked at it.

We didn't even hear about a case till February from there. They didn't have a clue what they were looking at.

Remember the AIDs outbreak in the 1980s in America. They didn't know what it was for ages, much longer then here and still sold blood around the world to countless countries and people before they said hey, wait a second.

Yurt2 · 05-04-2020 9:30am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

It was local to Wuhan and the disconnect between city level leadership and national is quite huge, the place is vast.

This is a well-known, and well-worn deflection tactic in the Chinese political tradition dating back the centuries to imperial times. When something goes wrong, the local official will always be made carry the can. Think if it as the emperor / party having a type of political papal infallibility.

天高皇帝远

Taiwan were sounding alarm bells about the transmissibility of the virus when the Chinese government were still denying community transmission. There was no way the cuddly creatures in Zhongnanhai didn't know.

The Chinese Big Lie

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