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Property Market 2020

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    #3512
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,581 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    dor843088 wrote: »
    How can you view houses if you have to stay at home ? I dont think estate agents are on the list of essential workers either.
    I've had two or three emails about private viewings for places in central Dublin although the EA concerned is basically pushing the bounds of legality. I think they are using address info they retained from an previous bid, noting that I am physically close to the new property they are advertising, which in itself is quite likely taking liberties with the GDPR..


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    #3513
    IvoryTower
    Registered Users Posts: 3,825 ✭✭✭IvoryTower


    Im sure' you'll be okay...


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    #3514
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Pivot Eoin wrote: »
    This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.

    Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks.

    Anything suggesting it's too early to tell (which it is) is being disputed by people who clearly are short term in their thinking wanting housing prices to fally by 30%.

    Just hold out for now and see what happens, Whether Johnny Nobody thinks it is going to drop by 30% is irrelevant, just because someone says it on Boards, doesn't mean it will happen.

    Relax.

    Every body on here knows it's just opinions , just like yours. Relax


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    #3515
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I would think this Summer will be a good time to negotiate 3-5% from the current price, with more option to choose and less biding wars. As long as multinationals corp. stays here, which I believe they will, although would need to follow news on this.
    I don't believe in property crash with over 20%. Simply because there is lack of property, not many of empty new builds, relatively low number of residential construction, and in overall on a whole scale of a country, today Irish household has way less Loans, and much more in their accounts, than what it was in 2008.
    In addition to that, for the people who won't loose their jobs, it is much easier to save initial deposit this year, than in any other year.

    3 /4 % have you not been reading the news. Our leader has stated this will have a larger impact than the financial crash.


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    #3516
    anplaya27
    Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭anplaya27


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Realistically no sale can go ahead until this thing is over even if you wanted to. How can you view , value , survey etc. It would be an utter nightmare. The property market is done until next year at least I'd say. Virtual viewings is a last gasp of despair from EAs. Futile.

    Not really. I've viewed and put a deposit on just two days ago.Banks are still operating and solicitors etc are open.


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    #3517
    what_traffic
    Registered Users Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    astrofool wrote: »
    What's happened this time is the world supply of money is being increased by figures never seen before (2.2trn being added to the US, 300bn to the UK, Europe doing similar). Majority of jobs will come back when isolation ends, however, the money to keep people going during these months will remain, pushing inflation higher. The markets are already escaping to bonds and gold, property is one of the items that remains valuable and more resistant to inflation, so may end seeing an upside after the crisis is over.

    We will however see the value of the money in people's pockets drop by 10-20% over the next few years, depending what capital controls are put in place.
    I agree with your analysis overall, but as Central banks will need inflation afer the greatest money creation experiment ever seen; then interest rates will raise, property values will drop in value as the servicing of debt keeps increases. This should occur if you are saying the value of the money in people's pockets would drop by 10-20% over the next few years.


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    #3518
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    “It is way worse than the global financial crisis of 2008-09,”

    Kristalina Georgieva, The Managing Director of the IMF said during yesterday's WHO press conference.

    Then added: “Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill.”


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    #3519
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Did anyone post the Ronan Lyons report yesterday?

    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch

    Certainly worth a read. Some key takeaways;

    "These extraordinary real economic consequences will, of course, translate into housing market effects. COVID-19 represents an extraordinary shock to housing demand and we should expect to see significant falls in housing prices - both sale and rental - as the economic effects unwind."

    "Despite all its complexities, housing is still a case of supply and demand. It is clear that COVID-19 represents a dramatic contraction in demand for owner-occupied properties. Households will be far less likely to enter into a 30-year mortgage contract, for example, if they are unsure what their 3-, 6- and 12-month prospects are for being employed and for what they'll earn. Things may be different for rental properties. Clearly, unemployment will soar - but if government steps in to guarantee incomes and prevent evictions, then there may be far less change in the rental market than on the sales side."

    And a hint of the trajectory we were already on. Particularly of note for those still insisting we have a gross undersupply.

    "In Dublin, the annual decline is slightly larger, at 2.6%, similar to the fall seen elsewhere in Leinster. In Connacht-Ulster, prices are still higher than a year ago (by 1.6%). The transition from sharply rising prices in mid-2017 to slightly falling prices by early 2020 was a gradual one and related to ever-improving supply on the market, in particular of newly built family homes in the Greater Dublin Area."

    Food for thought.


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    #3520
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    pearcider wrote: »
    I’m not sure the bit about household debt is actually true. From what I can see in 2019 we were the second most indebted household in Eurozone per capita and adjusted for GDP after the Netherlands who also have a huge property bubble especially in Amsterdam such that their central bank flagged it as the key systemic risk to their banks in 2019.

    In comparison to Ireland, I think it’s not unfair to say Netherlands probably has a more stable banking system and certainly a more prudent government and broader tax base.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-household-debt-continues-to-decline-but-remains-fifth-highest-in-the-eu-23-october-2019

    https://nltimes.nl/2019/10/15/housing-market-crash-major-risk-says-dutch-central-bank

    That's right, Ireland has still quite high Household debt level, due to the 2007 bubble. As per the report 2nd in Eurozone, but 5th in EU. This still doesn't change the fact that household dept significantly decreased from 2008 crisis, to current one.

    From the same centrabank.ie data, overall household dept, over 12 years decreased from 2007Q3 to 2019Q3, from 187Bn to 135Bn, out of it, Loans for House purchase decreased from 121Bn to 76Bn.
    Meanwhile Household deposits increased from 82Bn to 109Bn.


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    #3521
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    anplaya27 wrote: »
    Not really. I've viewed and put a deposit on just two days ago.Banks are still operating and solicitors etc are open.

    Not sure which is worse the fact you are actually buying a house now or the fact that you are running around viewing houses during a lockdown. Not too clever are you ? And any EA trying to get anyone to view a house should be reported to the guards. No wonder people think of them as greedy horrible people.


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    #3522
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Reversal wrote: »
    Did anyone post the Ronan Lyons report yesterday?

    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch

    Certainly worth a read. Some key takeaways;

    "These extraordinary real economic consequences will, of course, translate into housing market effects. COVID-19 represents an extraordinary shock to housing demand and we should expect to see significant falls in housing prices - both sale and rental - as the economic effects unwind."

    "Despite all its complexities, housing is still a case of supply and demand. It is clear that COVID-19 represents a dramatic contraction in demand for owner-occupied properties. Households will be far less likely to enter into a 30-year mortgage contract, for example, if they are unsure what their 3-, 6- and 12-month prospects are for being employed and for what they'll earn. Things may be different for rental properties. Clearly, unemployment will soar - but if government steps in to guarantee incomes and prevent evictions, then there may be far less change in the rental market than on the sales side."

    And a hint of the trajectory we were already on. Particularly of note for those still insisting we have a gross undersupply.

    "In Dublin, the annual decline is slightly larger, at 2.6%, similar to the fall seen elsewhere in Leinster. In Connacht-Ulster, prices are still higher than a year ago (by 1.6%). The transition from sharply rising prices in mid-2017 to slightly falling prices by early 2020 was a gradual one and related to ever-improving supply on the market, in particular of newly built family homes in the Greater Dublin Area."

    Food for thought.

    I don't see this reported anywhere in the Irish media. Can someone find it reported in the Indo, IT etc.? I'm curious to see how they try to spin it as they have been referring to price corrections as a" slowdown in growth" to date.


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    #3523
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    I don't see this reported anywhere in the Irish media. Can someone find it reported in the Indo, IT etc.? I'm curious to see how they try to spin it as they have been referring to price corrections as a" slowdown in growth" to date.

    RTE, the journal and the examiner all carried this report. All focusing on the logistical disruption to the market for viewings etc. Amazing how not one journo picked up the main prediction in the report, that prices are expected to fall significantly.


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    #3524
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    For anybody who still believes in the mythical creature that is a V shaped recovery...

    https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/goodbye-leprechaun-economics-hello-another-grim-milestone-1.4219469?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fgoodbye-leprechaun-economics-hello-another-grim-milestone-1.4219469

    "And while the nature of the crisis – the fact that is it predicated on a disease that might go as quickly as it came – has given rise to hopes of a swift bounce back economically, the evidence for this is fast diminishing."

    "The notion that people are simply going to pick up where they left off when the crisis abates is simply not credible."


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    #3525
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Reversal wrote: »
    RTE, the journal and the examiner all carried this report. All focusing on the logistical disruption to the market for viewings etc. Amazing how not one journo picked up the main prediction in the report, that prices are expected to fall significantly.

    Ah I see, it's buried in other reports!

    One thing that stands out for me is that the figures are based on pre-Covid19 measures which show a 2-5% drop in house asking prices year on year in Dublin.


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    #3526
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Ah I see, it's buried in other reports!

    One thing that stands out for me is that the figures are based on pre-Covid19 measures which show a 2-5% drop in house asking prices year on year in Dublin.

    Correct. City centre, South city and south county all down between 3-5%. Lyons suggests that price drop is supply related. Notable drops in most counties outside Dublin too.

    The reports of a strong Jan and Feb was accredited on here to people forgetting about BREXIT. However Ronan Lyons points out a new year bump has been seen every year as banks exemptions reset. However this January and February saw the weakest bump of any year of the recovery.

    House prices were not holding up before COVID. They certainly won't hold up after. He also noted that the reaction of sellers in any downturn is to pull properties. That isn't unique to this downturn, and won't stop it happening.


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    #3527
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    The transaction reports are garbage. The market is at standstill right now. When the market reopens there will be a GAP on the index chart. No past report can reflect that. We will only see the immediate impact in around 2 months after the trading restarts.


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    #3528
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    anplaya27 wrote: »
    Not really. I've viewed and put a deposit on just two days ago.Banks are still operating and solicitors etc are open.

    What ????


  • Options
    #3529
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    voluntary wrote: »
    The transaction reports are garbage. The market is at standstill right now. When the market reopens there will be a GAP on the index chart. No past report can reflect that. We will only see the immediate impact in around 2 months after the trading restarts.

    We're talking about pre COVID drops. Remember this is before half a million jobs went up in smoke.

    508194.jpg


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    #3530
    Deco99
    Registered Users Posts: 1,642 ✭✭✭Deco99


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    What ????

    Not really. I've viewed and put a deposit on just two days ago.Banks are still operating and solicitors etc are open.


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    #3531
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I would bet that if you dissected those figures a bit more that you wold find that debt is amongst the younger property buying generation while deposits would be heavily skewed towards the older population





    The vested interests have not gone away






    That graphic is fairly stark and it blows the property bulls arguments out of the water.
    High demand areas seeing the biggest falls. Wicklow, Dublin South etc

    Particularly poor in Limerick and surrounding counties as demand was very strong with a plethora of New High skill companies and expansion of the existing base coupled with almost no new stock in 10 years. Correction had begun long before C19


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    #3532
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Villa05 wrote: »
    That graphic is fairly stark and it blows the property bulls arguments out of the water.
    High demand areas seeing the biggest falls. Wicklow, Dublin South etc

    The main significance of these figures is that they seriously question the notion of sellers riding this out for a year and getting the price they want.

    Prices have been on the slide since late 2018. The arrogance of “I won’t accept less than I know my house is worth”, has likely cost some 20-30k already. And with prices sliding pre covid in a strong economy with full employment, it is entirely plausible they will never return to that level. This will eventually dawn on most and they’ll look to sell sooner rather than later.


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    #3533
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Reversal wrote: »
    The main significance of these figures is that they seriously question the notion of sellers riding this out for a year and getting the price they want.

    Prices have been on the slide since late 2018. The arrogance of “I won’t accept less than I know my house is worth”, has likely cost some 20-30k already.

    I'm in the market for a house at the min. I enquired about a particular house a few months ago and the estate agent warned that the seller would not accept even a cent less that the stated price. So I never even bothered viewing it. This house has been on the market for over 2 years and is way over priced already. I'm interested to see what happens now in the coming months to his property.


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    #3534
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    There are always properties on the market way over priced and sit there for years. Adverts is the same people try to sell used stuff for more than you can buy it new. None of this is new.

    If someone doesn't want to sell or drop just move on.

    I've seen properties sit for almost a decade empty.


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    #3535
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,739 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I'm in the market for a house at the min. I enquired about a particular house a few months ago and the estate agent warned that the seller would not accept even a cent less that the stated price. So I never even bothered viewing it. This house has been on the market for over 2 years and is way over priced already. I'm interested to see what happens now in the coming months to his property.

    So in not viewing it, you didn't see the 20Kg of solid gold tiles in the Kitchen.


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    #3536
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,692 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    These are asking prices that everyone is referring to not the one decent bit of data we actually have which is the ppr

    People can ask what they want for a house the only thing that’s important is what they sold it for


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    #3537
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    There are a lot of hidden price rises. The cost of having work done in house has risen massively. If at one time house needed 60 K worth of work and now needs 100 K, if the price of the house drops by 20 K, that is shown as a price drop of 20 K but is in fact a concealed rise of 20 K.

    The only good method of tracking trends in the market is the one adopted by one of the agents about 20 years ago. They took a selection of 43 houses in Dublin, valued them periodically as to what they would expect to fetch for them and us could track the trend in the market as opposed to relying on statistics which are often distorted.


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    #3538
    kevinc565
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭kevinc565


    Are people still buying out in Carrickmines? Isn't is faster to get into the city from Ashbourne?


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    #3539
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,386 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    kevinc565 wrote: »
    Are people still buying out in Carrickmines? Isn't is faster to get into the city from Ashbourne?

    Carrickmines has the Luas. The Luas is better than Dublin Bus.


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    #3540
    kevinc565
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭kevinc565


    Cyrus wrote: »
    These are asking prices that everyone is referring to not the one decent bit of data we actually have which is the ppr

    People can ask what they want for a house the only thing that’s important is what they sold it for

    I fint it amusing when , after a house goes sale agreed they wont tell you the price. So if you were in the bissign process you'd know the sale price with 90% certainty, and it goes on the PPR eventually, yet the agents remain coy. Trying to demonstrate the little bit of power they still have.


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    #3541
    kevinc565
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭kevinc565


    Down 17%

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/shandon-2-ferndale-road-rathmichael-dublin-18/4316564


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