Relaxation of restrictions

Here's my speculative 2c on potential options ahead of us. This is literally back of the envelope, armchair speculation.

Firstly, we have to recognise that the Irish government, love them or hate them, have done a really good job overall in managing this crisis. I'm not a fan of them however they have stepped up to the plate and taken action. We are ahead of some other Western countries and without the need for more stricter lockdowns, for now.

People are forgetting why there is a lockdown in place. Its not because of the virus, its because of our health system. If we have a health service with an infinite number of ICU beds and staff, there would be no lockdown. No country can cope with the level of hospitalisation that the virus has handed to us. Thats what the lockdown is all about.

Therefore the government can only consider relaxing rules when the forecasting of hospitalisation reduces dramatically and we are not at the level yet.

However the trade off is that we have a nation of housebound unemployed citizens. Each day that goes by is a day toward economic disaster, a point of no return where some existing businesses close with no possibility of re-opening.

As stands, regardless of when restrictions in Ireland are lifted, the tourism sector is decimated. That will take years to recover. The clock cant start on that until such a time as inbound and outbound tourism kicks off again.

Business and the economy is linked and relies on people have money to spend. A gym trainer might say, "I will be grand, I coach my clients online". Which is fine, assuming the clients have the disposable income for what is considered a luxury expense. Same for folks holding down a job with any business now, it can't last forever.

There is a limit to how long this can be sustained. We don't live in a comparable world to WW2 or the 1918 flu. Globalisation has made the world smaller and more connected. Public support for a lockdown will only go so far. We are being drip fed lockdowns in 2 week measures which makes sense. The government knows there is a limited capacity for an extended lockdown hence why its strict. I really cant see it getting stricter as essentially that would mean becoming a police state. Therefore as I mentioned in a previous thread, the responsibility ultimately lies with us, the citizens to adhere to the measures in place.

Its awful though, the mental health impact is massive and its going to get worse. Many people have lost a sense of purpose and direction. This can't be ignored either and to be fair, the government is aware of this.

So what does this all mean? Easter weekend it will be announced we are battening down the hatches till end of April. The message from the government will be one of hope, that we are making progress in flattening the curve. Generally speaking the public will accept it, hate it but accept it.

The real challenge will come end of April. I suspect the government may extend again but might have some light at the end of the tunnel and offer a vague to semi-vague idea of when and what restrictions will be the first to be lifted.

This all of course assumes that lockdown is effective in reducing the number of people requiring hospitalisation.