CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

BLIZZARD7 · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

Italy now at 10.55% mortality rate of cases who have tested positive.

Horrific

bob mcbob · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

It seems like those who we doubtful of the Chinese numbers have now been proved right

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/mar/27/china-re-closes-all-cinemas-over-coronavirus-fears

All Chinese cinemas have been ordered to close again after trading began to resume. Late on Friday evening, China’s Film Bureau issued a decree ordering all venues to shut down, offering no reason for the change in policy.

smallfryy · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yesterday's deaths alone were more than the total so far.
Yesterday's figure was the highest so far
The hse have said we won't see the peak of this until mid April.
Our icus will be at capacity in a few days and we are only starting to see an uptick.
You ain't seen nothing yet

Italy had almost 950 deaths today alone. Highest figure so far.

You can say I'm wrong. I'm just giving my thoughts
I hope I'm wrong .

I hope you're wrong too, in the nicest way possible.
Lots of posters here are saying our figures look like we are already flattening the curve.
Do you not agree with this?
I don't know what way to think at all.
My heart feels heavy for the Italians and Spanish today. I hate that they're in this nightmare.

Tell me how · 27-03-2020 06:07PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1243580779239739399

That's big. In a wider context than just this situation.

bilston · 27-03-2020 06:08PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Mayor of Bergamo questioning the official death count of Covid. Seems there were 446 deaths from 1 to 24 March.
Which is 348 more than the average of the previous years (98). There were only 136 covid19 deaths in that period.
That leaves 212 more than usual.

https://twitter.com/giorgio_gori/status/1243204679934324738?s=20

Not sure what the Mayor's point is?

The one thing we know is that the virus kills seriously ill people and it is true that some of those that it kills may likely die soon anyway. I'm not sure how a figure can be put on that though

However these are still human beings we are talking about who are dying before their time, be that 6 days, 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years or in some very rare cases 60 years before their time.

owlbethere · 27-03-2020 06:08PM

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

careless sherpa · 27-03-2020 06:09PM

bekker wrote: »

Dangerous to draw inferences to the future picture in Ireland from such a study.

It is killing young people, UK girl 19, no underlying comorbidities, no an isolated case, plus long term affects on lungs unknown.

In Ireland and some evidence is emerging that a large proportion of cases in Ireland are occurring among younger cohorts than was anticipated. only significent drop-off is in the 15-24 cohort.
https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

What jumps out at one is the 73.8% {was 78.3%} hypertension figure, given the suspected incidence of undiagnosed and untreated case of hypertension amongst all cohorts of the Irish population.

Hopefully it may turn out similarly here, but if it doesn't and the tentative evidence of possible long term pulmonary complication prove correct we may be facing into the TB scenario long term.

Thats a good point. There are a significant portion of the population from late 20s onwards that have undiagnosed hypertension. The effects of cocaine usage would have a fairly big impact on that and other undiagnosed cardiac issues as well

Blueshoe · 27-03-2020 06:09PM

smallfryy wrote: »

I hope you're wrong too, in the nicest way possible.
Lots of posters here are saying our figures look like we are already flattening the curve.
Do you not agree with this?
I don't know what way to think at all.
My heart feels heavy for the Italians and Spanish today. I hate that they're in this nightmare.

I'm not sure how people can say we are flattening the curve at this early stage. Everyone will have a different opinion so.

Over 65s being given a sedative instead of a ventilator in Madrid. We have a small health service. We don't want to see that here

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No I'm suggesting there is a rigorous and well worked out protocol for covid19 patients and hospitalisation.

And it isn't showing up at A&E. Anyone with covid19 symptoms need to stay the hell away from A&E including if you are at deaths door. Otherwise you risk infecting many others and health workers with this potentially lethal disease.

This isn't my advice - its the medical profession advice.

Call your GP
Advise them of Symptoms
Wait to be tested
Call the GP if symptoms worsen
Wait to be brought in by ambulance by paramedics in full personal protection equipment.

Suggesting anyone with covid 19 to just show up at A&E is irresponsible advice.

I'm talking about other health emergencies, not a worsening of covid-19 symptoms.
If someone has covid-19 or is showing symptoms of covid-19, then has a heart attack, or develops sepsis or some other emergency matter they're not going to be ringing their GP and awaiting instructions.

rebeve · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presume tonight's HSE briefing must be at 8.45? No updates from either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers on the timing as yet.

News will not be good it seems .

Hector Savage · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

From mental health effects I'd say so ...

Melanchthon · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

As per the link included, Germany appears to have mortality rate of roughly 0.55%. I understand that Germany has been carrying out lots of test however I am skeptical of the numbers. South Korea has a mortality rate about three times this despite carrying out an equivalent or higher amount of testings of it's population.

At the minute the amount of deaths is less than the winter flu season, Germany had positive cases early in the crisis too so even if there is a delayed response in terms of deaths of people in hospital that does not explain the mortality.

German air quality and smoking rates are better but not hugely different to Italy and Germany is a younger population but it is still a fairly old country.

In short are German mortality numbers believable keeping in mind South Korea's numbers indicate that even with an extensive pro-active testing regime mortality rate is considerably higher.

https://www.macaubusiness.com/germany-reports-over-36500-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19/

wakka12 · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

I really doubt it, normal flu kills a million worldwide I would imagine this will kill only about ten million or so which would have no impact on life expectancy

Red for Danger · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

Belgium with 11m people have 68 deaths on the board already today the dutch have 118, frances numbers wont be out till 6.30 but they were 365 yesterday and it turns out there not counting home deaths or nursing home deaths. Who knows what other countries are also counting this way
The inclination will always be to play it down rather than up.
Every country has pros and cons, yet many on here somehow have deluded themselves in thinking ireland are not going to have outta control days like italy,
Because "flattening the curve" or some other wishful thinking like we're comparable to south Korea.
True, we'll have less **** days like Italy but we wont hold the line or stay in control once the numbers start to back up. And right now nobody even knows whats in store for italy

RogerThis · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presume tonight's HSE briefing must be at 8.45? No updates from either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers on the timing as yet.

Where is it normally published?

humberklog · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I'm not being smart, but did the Italian culture of greeting males and females with a hug and a kiss go against it? We are way more stand off-ish here for example.

A lot of cultural norms in the different countries have a large part to play I'd say.

One I came across a few nights ago and posted here was the levels of hand hygiene in the different European countries effected and whilst there are anomalies there is a correlation between the level of infection and the levels of hand hygiene.

This is interesting....
https://jakubmarian.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/washing-hands-source.jpg

yourdeadwright · 27-03-2020 06:11PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yesterday's deaths alone were more than the total so far.
Yesterday's figure was the highest so far
The hse have said we won't see the peak of this until mid April.
Our icus will be at capacity in a few days and we are only starting to see an uptick.
You ain't seen nothing yet

Italy had almost 950 deaths today alone. Highest figure so far.

You can say I'm wrong. I'm just giving my thoughts and repeating messages from the taoiseach and hse

I hope I'm wrong .

Currently at this very moment , Ireland is not spiralling out of control , Can that happen yes of course but is it currently happing no ,

bilston · 27-03-2020 06:11PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1243580779239739399

Seems a logical approach. Given the huge reduction in travel between GB and the island of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland now have a huge influence over each other's destiny in all of this.

So far NI has fared better than England and Wales so hopefully is on a different curve to those parts of the UK.

10000maniacs · 27-03-2020 06:11PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

From mental health effects I'd say so ...

Yes it will if it damages your lungs.

An Ciarraioch · 27-03-2020 06:12PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presume tonight's HSE briefing must be at 8.45? No updates from either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers on the timing as yet.

And so it came to pass:

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1243585963986751494

pawdee · 27-03-2020 06:12PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

I've had to sit through Frozen 2 about 8 times so far this week so I'd say definitely in my case.

igCorcaigh · 27-03-2020 06:12PM

Guardian blog.
US and Canada.

People who can’t afford April’s or May’s rent thanks to Covid-19 crisis unemployment are being asked to hang a white sheet outside their homes to demand a rent strike.

Blut2 · 27-03-2020 06:12PM

bekker wrote: »

Dangerous to draw inferences to the future picture in Ireland from such a study.

It is killing young people, UK girl 19, no underlying comorbidities, no an isolated case, plus long term affects on lungs unknown.

In Ireland and some evidence is emerging that a large proportion of cases in Ireland are occurring among younger cohorts than was anticipated. only significent drop-off is in the 15-24 cohort.
https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

What jumps out at one is the 73.8% {was 78.3%} hypertension figure, given the suspected incidence of undiagnosed and untreated case of hypertension amongst all cohorts of the Irish population.

Hopefully it may turn out similarly here, but if it doesn't and the tentative evidence of possible long term pulmonary complication prove correct we may be facing into the TB scenario long term.

Its the only full medical study we've had access to on the virus in Europe to date. Its the best thing in the world we have to draw inferences from, certainly a lot better than the tabloid panic the media is currently focused on.

The one girl in the UK is a) highly anecdotal, vs the empirical study evidence and b) likely did have an underlying condition she was unaware of, given the figures we're seeing elsewhere.

eagle eye · 27-03-2020 06:13PM

yourdeadwright wrote:

Currently at this very moment , Ireland is not spiralling out of control , Can that happen yes of course but is it currently happing no ,

How many have we tested? How many waiting to be tested? Are we counting deaths that happen at home to people who did not get tested?

RogerThis · 27-03-2020 06:13PM

twitter

Fergal Bowers
@FergalBowers
Latest COVID-19 figures from the Department of Health expected about 8.45 pm. Watch RTÉ News Now for it streamed live.

vladmydad · 27-03-2020 06:13PM

I agree with Sweden https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/sweden-is-doing-the-opposite-of-almost-all-of-europe-to-tackle-coronavirus-39080526.html

Strazdas · 27-03-2020 06:14PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

Only if it could be proved to have done some lasting damage to the body or to the DNA. Contracting a virus and recovering from it should not in theory knock any years off a person's life expectancy.

Wibbs · 27-03-2020 06:14PM

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I'm not being smart, but did the Italian culture of greeting males and females with a hug and a kiss go against it? We are way more stand off-ish here for example.

Might be part of it alright. Another is they tend to have less nuclear type families. Much more extended family connections and closeness and interactions. They often live very close together even in the same apartment buildings.

On that score there's much higher population densities in Northern Italy and places like Spain and Paris and London for that matter when compared to Ireland. IMHO our small population and very low density population levels with the majority living in non shared accommodation will be one of if not our biggest advantage, if purely by fluke. A pathogen finds it much harder to spread along a row of houses than in a block of flats. Add in physical distance while being out and about and that makes it even harder for the fcuker to spread.

This makes it even more important when confronting those who insist through bullheadedness or idiocy or the ignorance of youth to ignore this distancing. They are quite literally life threatening in their behaviours. Some of them will end up killing people and we need to get this point across by straight to the point education and yes shaming them into it, by seeing and responding to this as a potentially deadly taboo. If that doesn't work we have to hit them with fines until this gets through their dense skulls.

timhenn · 27-03-2020 06:15PM

KiKi III wrote: »

No, you didn’t. You showed me that you definitely did pass Maths and don’t understand the stats.

So talk to me about the Singapore and Finland stats then.

yourdeadwright · 27-03-2020 06:15PM

smallfryy wrote: »

I hope you're wrong too, in the nicest way possible.
Lots of posters here are saying our figures look like we are already flattening the curve.
Do you not agree with this?
I don't know what way to think at all.
My heart feels heavy for the Italians and Spanish today. I hate that they're in this nightmare.

In Leos speech on on Patricks day he predicted it to go up 30% a day and there to be 15 000 cases by the 1str of April , Currently that curve is being flattened ,

its inevitable there will be a spike at some time and there will be huge problems for a week possible two , but at the moment we are on route to make sure them two weeks don't get as bad as Italy ,

But yes it will get bad and yes we will lose loved ones but currently its looking like not as many as first predicted , it'll still be horrific

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03