CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

is_that_so · 27-03-2020 05:57PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

By how much?

It's "down" to 7.3%.

yourdeadwright · 27-03-2020 05:57PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

I don't think the Chinese hug and kiss each other
The Americans don't either.
Nor do the Germans etc etc
This virus is highly contagious . It's spreads far too quickly with a long incubation period.
The situation gets out of control fast.

Over half of our cases are via community transmission now which means contact tracking is now irrelevant. Things here will and are beginning to spiral.
Scary times ahead

Why do people say its beginging to spiral , Its not nearly as bad here as was predicted,
Yes its getting worse thats inevitable but to say its spiralling is just not true,

We are yet to even see the effect of the recent social distancing,

It'll get worse of course it will but it certainly is NOT spiralling out of control at this moment in Ireland,

Cork Boy 53 · 27-03-2020 05:58PM

is_that_so wrote: »

France has extended its coronavirus lockdown by two weeks until 15 April, Edouard Philippe said in a speech.

I thought the French authorities had done that already.

bennyl10 · 27-03-2020 05:59PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

I don't think the Chinese hug and kiss each other
The Americans don't either.
Nor do the Germans etc etc
This virus is highly contagious . It's spreads far too quickly with a long incubation period.
The situation gets out of control fast.

Over half of our cases are via community transmission now which means contact tracking is now irrelevant. Things here will and are beginning to spiral.
Scary times ahead

Which is why its so important, if you as much as cough, to STAY THE F INSIDE

then we wont have a spiral

bekker · 27-03-2020 05:59PM

Blut2 wrote: »

Has there been any coverage in the media yet of the new report by a working group of Italian doctors from the Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Higher Institute of Health)? They last night just released the first detailed report on covid deaths so far in the country. Its got a couple of very interesting highlights:

Heres the age ranges of deaths: essentially non-existent for under 40s. 9 total people under 40. Of that 9, they tested 7 for underlying conditions, and 100% had them - either debates, obesity etc. Not a single healthy person under 40 has died from it.

And here are the overall deaths, across all age ranges:

This is part is absolutely key. Only 1.2% of Italian deaths, across all age ranges, had no underlying health conditions (diabetes, COPD etc). It looks like its not only just not killing young people, its not killing healthy old people.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf

It seems like this is pretty huge, positive news? Once it gets wider media coverage I'd imagine we'll see a lot of pressure to lift quarantines for the not-at-risk sections of society.

Dangerous to draw inferences to the future picture in Ireland from such a study.

It is killing young people, UK girl 19, no underlying comorbidities, no an isolated case, plus long term affects on lungs unknown.

In Ireland and some evidence is emerging that a large proportion of cases in Ireland are occurring among younger cohorts than was anticipated. only significent drop-off is in the 15-24 cohort.
https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

What jumps out at one is the 73.8% {was 78.3%} hypertension figure, given the suspected incidence of undiagnosed and untreated case of hypertension amongst all cohorts of the Irish population.

Hopefully it may turn out similarly here, but if it doesn't and the tentative evidence of possible long term pulmonary complication prove correct we may be facing into the TB scenario long term.

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 05:59PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Why do people say its beginging to spiral , Its not nearly as bad here as was predicted,
Yes its getting worse thats inevitable but to say its spiralling is just not true,

We are yet to even see the effect of the recent social distancing,

It'll get worse of course it will but it certainly is NOT spiralling out of control at this moment in Ireland,

ICU cases are increasing by something like 30% daily. That means in about 10 days all our ICU beds will be full.

Hector Savage · 27-03-2020 05:59PM

^^

Yeah extinction level event from a disease that will probably have around 1% CFR ...

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 06:00PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

But she didn't have covid 19.

Do you understand this critical point?

So are you suggesting that people who are critically ill and need immediate admission to the hospital must stay at home to die if they have Covid-19?

Downlinz · 27-03-2020 06:01PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

You'd have to wonder about Italy for the long term, even when this is finally beaten assuming a vaccine arrives the place is going to have the dark cloud of loss over it and this is a country for whom tourism is vital. It'll be pretty hard to chin up for the visitors that said obviously we'll all be poorer anyway so that sector of the economy is probably fecked anyway.

This is in the hope that Italy are getting it bad relative to the rest of Europe rather than just getting it early. :pac:

Cork Boy 53 · 27-03-2020 06:01PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Probably just a mixture of factors that made it particularly bad in Italy

Spain and the UK could turn out to be worse than Italy.

is_that_so · 27-03-2020 06:02PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Probably just a mixture of factors that made it particularly bad in Italy

One suggestion is that it was already there for quite a while before they realised at which point it was too late for them and their initial response was too relaxed. Italians ignoring government advice or restrictions didn't help at all. A similar pattern of public indifference to instructions emerged in France and Spain.

walshb · 27-03-2020 06:02PM

919 deaths in Italy.....is that their highest daily?

Very tough that.....

otnomart · 27-03-2020 06:02PM

bekker wrote: »

Dangerous to draw inferences to the future picture in Ireland from such a study.

It is killing young people, UK girl 19, no underlying comorbidities, no an isolated case, plus long term affects on lungs unknown.

In Ireland and some evidence is emerging that a large proportion of cases in Ireland are occurring among younger cohorts than was anticipated. only significent drop-off is in the 15-24 cohort.
https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

What jumps out at one is the 78.3% hypertension figure, given the suspected incidence of undiagnosed and untreated case of hypertension amongst all cohorts of the Irish population.

Hopefully it may turn out similarly here, but if it doesn't and the tentative evidence of possible long term pulmonary complication prove correct we may be facing into the TB scenario long term.

Agree.
Italy with Japan and South Korea has a high percentage of older people.
That is not just due to low natality rate but also to high life expectancy.

It is important to look also at the general state of health of the young population, and at life expectancy.

Blueshoe · 27-03-2020 06:03PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Why do people say its beginging to spiral , Its not nearly as bad here as was predicted,
Yes its getting worse thats inevitable but to say its spiralling is just not true,

We are yet to even see the effect of the recent social distancing,

It'll get worse of course it will but it certainly is NOT spiralling out of control at this moment in Ireland,

Yesterday's deaths alone were more than the total so far.
Yesterday's figure was the highest so far
The hse have said we won't see the peak of this until mid April.
Our icus will be at capacity in a few days and we are only starting to see an uptick.
You ain't seen nothing yet

Italy had almost 950 deaths today alone. Highest figure so far.

You can say I'm wrong. I'm just giving my thoughts and repeating messages from the taoiseach and hse

I hope I'm wrong .

Tacitus Kilgore · 27-03-2020 06:03PM

kingshankly wrote: »

What’s the next level after “pandemic” or is there a next level

Have an aul read at what he was replying to Hec ^

Hector Savage wrote: »

^^

Yeah extinction level event from a disease that will probably have around 1% CFR ...

An Ciarraioch · 27-03-2020 06:03PM

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1243580779239739399

sadie1502 · 27-03-2020 06:03PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

ICU cases are increasing by something like 30% daily. That means in about 10 days all our ICU beds will be full.

And it seems like it takes weeks to recover wouldn't be so bad if the recovery rate was higher

10000maniacs · 27-03-2020 06:03PM

If Michael Gove is doing the daily press conference, that must mean that Rabb has it too.

caveat emptor · 27-03-2020 06:04PM

Mayor of Bergamo questioning the official death count of Covid. Seems there were 446 deaths from 1 to 24 March.
Which is 348 more than the average of the previous years (98). There were only 136 covid19 deaths in that period.
That leaves 212 more than usual.

https://twitter.com/giorgio_gori/status/1243204679934324738?s=20

An Ciarraioch · 27-03-2020 06:04PM

Presume tonight's HSE briefing must be at 8.45? No updates from either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers on the timing as yet.

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 06:05PM

marilynrr wrote: »

So are you suggesting that people who are critically ill and need immediate admission to the hospital must stay at home to die if they have Covid-19?

No I'm suggesting there is a rigorous and well worked out protocol for covid19 patients and hospitalisation.

And it isn't showing up at A&E. Anyone with covid19 symptoms need to stay the hell away from A&E including if you are at deaths door. Otherwise you risk infecting many others and health workers with this potentially lethal disease.

This isn't my advice - its the medical profession advice.

Call your GP
Advise them of Symptoms
Wait to be tested
Call the GP if symptoms worsen
Wait to be brought in by ambulance by paramedics in full personal protection equipment.

Suggesting anyone with covid 19 to just show up at A&E is irresponsible advice.

BLIZZARD7 · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

Italy now at 10.55% mortality rate of cases who have tested positive.

Horrific

bob mcbob · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

It seems like those who we doubtful of the Chinese numbers have now been proved right

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/mar/27/china-re-closes-all-cinemas-over-coronavirus-fears

All Chinese cinemas have been ordered to close again after trading began to resume. Late on Friday evening, China’s Film Bureau issued a decree ordering all venues to shut down, offering no reason for the change in policy.

smallfryy · 27-03-2020 06:06PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yesterday's deaths alone were more than the total so far.
Yesterday's figure was the highest so far
The hse have said we won't see the peak of this until mid April.
Our icus will be at capacity in a few days and we are only starting to see an uptick.
You ain't seen nothing yet

Italy had almost 950 deaths today alone. Highest figure so far.

You can say I'm wrong. I'm just giving my thoughts
I hope I'm wrong .

I hope you're wrong too, in the nicest way possible.
Lots of posters here are saying our figures look like we are already flattening the curve.
Do you not agree with this?
I don't know what way to think at all.
My heart feels heavy for the Italians and Spanish today. I hate that they're in this nightmare.

Tell me how · 27-03-2020 06:07PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1243580779239739399

That's big. In a wider context than just this situation.

bilston · 27-03-2020 06:08PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Mayor of Bergamo questioning the official death count of Covid. Seems there were 446 deaths from 1 to 24 March.
Which is 348 more than the average of the previous years (98). There were only 136 covid19 deaths in that period.
That leaves 212 more than usual.

https://twitter.com/giorgio_gori/status/1243204679934324738?s=20

Not sure what the Mayor's point is?

The one thing we know is that the virus kills seriously ill people and it is true that some of those that it kills may likely die soon anyway. I'm not sure how a figure can be put on that though

However these are still human beings we are talking about who are dying before their time, be that 6 days, 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years or in some very rare cases 60 years before their time.

owlbethere · 27-03-2020 06:08PM

I know it's early days in this virus and we still have a long road ahead of us with this.

Will this virus shave some years of our life expectancy?

careless sherpa · 27-03-2020 06:09PM

bekker wrote: »

Dangerous to draw inferences to the future picture in Ireland from such a study.

It is killing young people, UK girl 19, no underlying comorbidities, no an isolated case, plus long term affects on lungs unknown.

In Ireland and some evidence is emerging that a large proportion of cases in Ireland are occurring among younger cohorts than was anticipated. only significent drop-off is in the 15-24 cohort.
https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

What jumps out at one is the 73.8% {was 78.3%} hypertension figure, given the suspected incidence of undiagnosed and untreated case of hypertension amongst all cohorts of the Irish population.

Hopefully it may turn out similarly here, but if it doesn't and the tentative evidence of possible long term pulmonary complication prove correct we may be facing into the TB scenario long term.

Thats a good point. There are a significant portion of the population from late 20s onwards that have undiagnosed hypertension. The effects of cocaine usage would have a fairly big impact on that and other undiagnosed cardiac issues as well

Blueshoe · 27-03-2020 06:09PM

smallfryy wrote: »

I hope you're wrong too, in the nicest way possible.
Lots of posters here are saying our figures look like we are already flattening the curve.
Do you not agree with this?
I don't know what way to think at all.
My heart feels heavy for the Italians and Spanish today. I hate that they're in this nightmare.

I'm not sure how people can say we are flattening the curve at this early stage. Everyone will have a different opinion so.

Over 65s being given a sedative instead of a ventilator in Madrid. We have a small health service. We don't want to see that here

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 06:10PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No I'm suggesting there is a rigorous and well worked out protocol for covid19 patients and hospitalisation.

And it isn't showing up at A&E. Anyone with covid19 symptoms need to stay the hell away from A&E including if you are at deaths door. Otherwise you risk infecting many others and health workers with this potentially lethal disease.

This isn't my advice - its the medical profession advice.

Call your GP
Advise them of Symptoms
Wait to be tested
Call the GP if symptoms worsen
Wait to be brought in by ambulance by paramedics in full personal protection equipment.

Suggesting anyone with covid 19 to just show up at A&E is irresponsible advice.

I'm talking about other health emergencies, not a worsening of covid-19 symptoms.
If someone has covid-19 or is showing symptoms of covid-19, then has a heart attack, or develops sepsis or some other emergency matter they're not going to be ringing their GP and awaiting instructions.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03