CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Without condoning their behavior, I do feel a bit sorry for people of that age. You're only 18-21 once in your life, and the best part of that is the Spring/Summer each year. This generation of them is being told to stay at home for one, possibly two of their three carefree college spring/summertimes.

I get the feeling that the annual Darwin Awards are going to be somewhat busy this year.

walshb wrote: »

High probability restrictions extended past April 19?

Yes indeed : I've seen some suggestions that restrictions could start to be lifted around Europe at some point in mid to late May. Definitely by the first week of June, we should be beginning to come out at the other end of the crisis.

gmisk wrote: »

No test for me apparently because of new HSE guidelines i.e I don't have a temp.
But I have pain everytime I breathe, sore throat, headache, aches and pains all over. Plus I have had pneunonia before.

But I have been told the whole household has to self isolate for 2 weeks. Given sick cert for 2 weeks. Cal an ambulance if I get any worse.

Oh and they made sure to take my card details as soon as possible after anyway.

That is ridiculous

Hope you get well soon. Weren't you supposed to be on holidays about now?

Coyote wrote: »

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 42K
3 weeks slow change 23K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 241K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

That's sobering. No matter what happens, it seems ICUs will be overwhelmed or at max capacity in a week or two.

Edit: notwithstanding the point made below about the ICUs average stay being 2 weeks and subsequent recoveries/deaths, the first two look grim. And the third is pretty bad.

bilston wrote: »

Does anyone think they will open then?

If the lockdowns/govt measures work as they should, maybe schools could re-open in June, but at that stage I would expect govt will decide it's not worth the risk and the closures will extend until September.

I would say end of May would be a good bet. All the indications are that the virus has an 8-10 week cycle and then starts to lessen.

On South Korea:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/south-korea-coronavirus


The backbone of Korea’s success has been mass, indiscriminate testing, followed by rigorous contact tracing and the quarantine of anyone the carrier has come into contact with. As of March 19, the country has conducted more than 307,000 tests, the highest per capita in the world. The UK has conducted 64,600; The US even less that. “You have countries like the US right now, where there's a fairly strict criteria of who can be tested,” says Kee Park, a lecturer on global health at Harvard Medical School. “I know people personally who have symptoms that are highly suspicious, but they don't meet all the criteria and so they're not being tested.”

“[South Korea’s] extensive testing is a very valuable tool to both control the virus and understand and measure the effectiveness of the responses that are taking place,” says Michael Mina, assistant professor at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. “It’s allowed individuals to take matters into their own hands and make social distancing decisions on their own, both to protect those around them and to protect themselves from those who are infected around them.”

To carry out testing at this scale requires extraordinary coordination. The Wall Street Journal reports that the country can test more than 20,000 people a day at 633 testing sites nationwide. A smartphone app provides GPS maps to track the infection’s spread. Medics pitch massive white tents on roadsides, where citizens receive free drive through testing, reducing the need to clean infected hazmat suits. Results are swift, too, coming by text within 24 hours.

JDD wrote: »

I don't think the government's policy is for us all to stay indoors forever either. They're just trying to avoid the initial surge while the health system is still in transition - and every extra day will provide additional resources, beds, staff, doctors etc. Also every further day we can reduce the number of infections in the next three months will allow further research into the virus, with better treatments, and better experienced health workers.

We may be able to loosen restrictions in June or July. At that point there will be thousands who had have the virus and have recovered. They will be able to go back to work, or indeed may be able to assist with the contact tracing. We are probably hoping that warmer weather will destroy the virus somewhat, and we can go back to opening cafes and restaurants and shops, with social distancing still encouraged. Those who work from home will probably continue to do so. The real catch will be whether childcare facilities will be allowed to reopen. I guess that will depend on the rate of infections at that stage.

What brave politician is going to announce the relaxing of restrictions and get the blame from the fickle Irish public for any deaths or infections that occur subsequently. Also we can expect a tsunami of lawsuits from people who will blame ‘the state’ for getting the virus.

gabeeg wrote: »

No, we're now going against WHO guidelines

Actually we're using the latest definition from WHO so no we are not. Resetting our system where 94% tested are not infected is an obvious move. Then we will continue with test, test test.

He explained that Ireland’s response was based on World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines which encompass social distancing and social restrictions accompanied by heavy testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

Curious_Case wrote: »

It follows that being positive may contrast to being negative in terms of outcome.

Sigh. If only that were true

STB. wrote: »

Varadkar is telling people we are following the South Korea model. We are doing nothing of the sort.

Yep I was astonished when I heard that!

And it is not just about testing. Varadkar must not have seen pictures of South Korea with everyone wearing masks, must not have seen their policies with regards to screening/restricting people entering the country, and must not know the extend of their contact tracking and confinement enforcement policies. Either that or he is deliberately lying when he is saying we are supposedly "following the South Korean model".

Roger_007 wrote: »

What brave politician is going to announce the relaxing of restrictions and get the blame from the fickle Irish public for any deaths or infections that occur subsequently. Also we can expect a tsunami of lawsuits from people who will blame ‘the state’ for getting the virus.

It's not a political call. National Public Health Emergency Team will make the recommendation.

Renee Kind Historian wrote: »

Are you just ignoring all the information in the last 2 pages or so that shows we're already at about half S.Korea's per capita levels of testing despite being weeks behind them in terms of the virus taking hold?

RTE Radio is reporting that the HSE will only test people with symptoms.