CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

bilston · 25-03-2020 02:11PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

the South Korean model is to test extensively - testing people with "symptoms" is NOT the South Korea strategy. At all.

I think they are testing everyone in Iceland. They can do it because the population is pretty small. Once done, it should give us an idea of the spread of this virus.

Edit - just read that they've had to slow the testing due to a shortage of swabs, but the evidence so far suggests 1% of the population have the virus.

Put that into Ireland terms and you're talking about 50,000 people could have it.

I am me123 · 25-03-2020 02:11PM

Hi all,

In light of yesterday's government announcement, are all schools, colleges, businesses,etc. that are closed up until next Sunday, 29th March, now closed for a longer period until April 12th?

Thank you.

Thelonious Monk · 25-03-2020 02:12PM

I just heard on the radio that up to 100 youths had to be broken up in Donnycarney, down the road from me, last night. Also teens have been arrested for spitting at Garda and people in Waterford and Dun Laoighaire.
I really hope the Garda beat the absolute living f*ck out of them. They should also be banned from hospitals for life.

wakka12 · 25-03-2020 02:12PM

bilston wrote: »

Sky reporting that a 21 year old woman with no underlying health conditions has died in England of Covid 19.

That is awful but its important to remember that no known conditions doesnt necessarily mean she had no underlying conditions. Many young people throughout the world have for example genetic heart defects that they are never made aware of until it results in a heart attack, rare but not unheard of at all. Im sure most of us know of or heard of a young person dying suddenly from heart attacks

JDD · 25-03-2020 02:13PM

I don't think the government's policy is for us all to stay indoors forever either. They're just trying to avoid the initial surge while the health system is still in transition - and every extra day will provide additional resources, beds, staff, doctors etc. Also every further day we can reduce the number of infections in the next three months will allow further research into the virus, with better treatments, and better experienced health workers.

We may be able to loosen restrictions in June or July. At that point there will be thousands who had have the virus and have recovered. They will be able to go back to work, or indeed may be able to assist with the contact tracing. We are probably hoping that warmer weather will destroy the virus somewhat, and we can go back to opening cafes and restaurants and shops, with social distancing still encouraged. Those who work from home will probably continue to do so. The real catch will be whether childcare facilities will be allowed to reopen. I guess that will depend on the rate of infections at that stage.

Coyote · 25-03-2020 02:13PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Can anyone good at maths work out if our cases increase by 20% a day at that rate how many weeks before the entire population would be infected ?

No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 42K
3 weeks slow change 23K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 241K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

25-03-2020 02:13PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its not cancer. Even if you test positive you will probably be told to take paracetamol and isolate.

In the highly unlikely event your symptoms become more serious your GP may send you to hospital.

My GP is virtually impossible to contact, you can be days waiting for a response as they are snowed under, also have a secretary who is not best at communications as English is not her first language, always misinterpreting things. He’s great when you actually get talking to him, but a hard man to get a hold of, and the retired colleague who has returned for the crisis has always been somebody I (and other patients) avoided for good reason.

I had been abroad in a poor African country last week when I had really bad breathing issues, but unable to get medical help there. I was lucky that these mainly abated, and all I’m left with is mild fever, lethargy & chest tightness. Another in my group had similar symptoms. I eventually did get onto GP’s colleague and listed on Monday, but there’s no way I’m making the effort to re-list even though I have an underlying heart issue etc. If I got into those breathing difficulty again it is not my doctor I will try to consult, but I will be on to 112.

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 02:14PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

the South Korean model is to test extensively - testing people with "symptoms" is NOT the South Korea strategy. At all.

They already have a system in place that can do 15000 tests daily plus people keep ignoring the huge cluster from that church. 94% of those tested are negative, that to me is a waste of resources or as Holohan called it "casting too wide a net". Up to 20000 a day are being booked for tests. So we are rebooting and testing those who will most likely develop symptoms. That gives you contacts as well, now down to about 5 per case.

25-03-2020 02:15PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

the South Korean model is to test extensively - testing people with "symptoms" is NOT the South Korea strategy. At all.

South Korea have tested about 0.7% of their population. How do you think they decided who made up that 0.7% and who was in the 99.3% of people who haven't been tested?

For the record we have tested about 0.35% of our population but we're also 1-2 weeks behind South Korea in terms of the number of cases taking off.

Jizique · 25-03-2020 02:15PM

I am me123 wrote: »

Hi all,

In light of yesterday's government announcement, are all schools, colleges, businesses,etc. that are closed up until next Sunday, 29th March, now closed for a longer period until April 12th?

Thank you.

They will be closed longer than that - end of easter hols is April 20 but will be surprised if they open before June

bilston · 25-03-2020 02:15PM

wakka12 wrote: »

That is awful but its important to remember that no known conditions doesnt necessarily mean she had no underlying conditions. Many young people throughout the world have for example genetic heart defects that they are never made aware of until it results in a heart attack, rare but not unheard of at all. Im sure most of us know of or heard of a young person dying suddenly from heart attacks

Totally agree.

It's still a warning to young people that they aren't invincible and as you say many young people may have underlying issues and not know.

TTLF · 25-03-2020 02:15PM

All closed until April 19th.

(Sunday before Easter break finishes)

Strazdas · 25-03-2020 02:16PM

I am me123 wrote: »

Hi all,

In light of yesterday's government announcement, are all schools, colleges, businesses,etc. that are closed up until next Sunday, 29th March, now closed for a longer period until April 12th?

Thank you.

Sunday, April 19th in fact

Loafing Oaf · 25-03-2020 02:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I love the language.. halting the spread of the virus... where did I suggest that we could stop the spread of the virus? :rolleyes:

Okay well slowing the spread to anywhere near the point where it would be sage to start opening things up again like in some Asian countries

TheW1zard · 25-03-2020 02:16PM

Im still in the office and could work from home, are my employers breaking the law?

Hobgoblin11 · 25-03-2020 02:17PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I just heard on the radio that up to 100 youths had to be broken up in Donnycarney, down the road from me, last night. Also teens have been arrested for spitting at Garda and people in Waterford and Dun Laoighaire.
I really hope the Garda beat the absolute living f*ck out of them. They should also be banned from hospitals for life.

we are not equipped to deal with disorderly teens during this crisis

walshb · 25-03-2020 02:17PM

High probability restrictions extended past April 19?

gmisk · 25-03-2020 02:17PM

No test for me apparently because of new HSE guidelines i.e I don't have a temp.
But I have pain everytime I breathe, sore throat, headache, aches and pains all over. Plus I have had pneunonia before.

But I have been told the whole household has to self isolate for 2 weeks. Given sick cert for 2 weeks. Cal an ambulance if I get any worse.

Oh and they made sure to take my card details as soon as possible after anyway.

Snow Garden · 25-03-2020 02:17PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Insurance scumbags.

https://twitter.com/HealthRegLawyer/status/1242792582264098817?s=20

Is this true?

25-03-2020 02:18PM

STB. wrote: »

Hammer journalists, to ask probing questions and get some action. If there are not enough state labs, then the biochemical companies should be asked, and god knows there is enough of them in Ireland.

Varadkar is telling people we are following the South Korea model. We are doing nothing of the sort.

We don't have the facilities to test the 40k that have accumulated over the last 11-12 days. And they sat on their hands and let that stagnate. As a result people havent a clue whats going on and we dont have a firm grip on our actual contagion, the whole purpose of which was to avoid the spread of the virus, so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.

We have now abandoned the 40,000 that were showing symptoms and they wont be tested at all, because someone sat on their hands and let it get to that level. Why ? Is there not enough kits or not enough lab facilities, or both ? This needs to a transparent process.

45% of our cases are from community transmission and we have now switched to test criteria that doesn't test for community transmission.

You couldn't make it up.

I have been involved in tracing work contacts of those sent for test in a large multinational. From what I have seen, anyone with so much as a sniffle or tickle in the throat were being submitted for testing by some GP's. This has overwhelmed the system and resulted in us now amending guidelines to match WHO guidelines to ensure those who are most likely to have COVID-19 are tested and traced as soon as is practicable. From numbers I have seen we have completed approaching 20,000 tests compared to c3000,000 in South Korea. Given their population is 11 times ours, and the outbreak started in Korea well before us, we are not doing too badly proportionately.
There is no way it is possible for a country of less than 5 million to mobilise resources quickly enough to test the same numbers as a country of 50 million people overnight as some here seen to think is possible. Its not like a home pregnancy test. We need people to take samples, transport, prepare reagents, process testing and analyse and report results, as well as required equipment. Do you think this just sits around waiting for someone to use?
The updated guidelines were needed to ensure those most likely to be infected, were being tested in the absence of capacity to test every single citizen.

bilston · 25-03-2020 02:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Sunday, April 19th in fact

Does anyone think they will open then?

If the lockdowns/govt measures work as they should, maybe schools could re-open in June, but at that stage I would expect govt will decide it's not worth the risk and the closures will extend until September.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Without condoning their behavior, I do feel a bit sorry for people of that age. You're only 18-21 once in your life, and the best part of that is the Spring/Summer each year. This generation of them is being told to stay at home for one, possibly two of their three carefree college spring/summertimes.

I get the feeling that the annual Darwin Awards are going to be somewhat busy this year.

STB. · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

TheW1zard wrote: »

Im still in the office and could work from home, are my employers breaking the law?

Have you asked ? The Taoiseach and Dept of Health position is clear. Those that can work from home should be facilitated.

Your employer has protection obligations under the Health & Safety Act 2005, if that is the legal question you want to base your question on ?

caveat emptor · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1242798421695660033?s=20

nacho libre · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

walshb wrote: »

High probability restrictions extended past April 19?

If the so called curve has been flattened i think some restrictions will be lifted, but i think it would be a mistake for airports to return to normal. We saw what happened in Hong Kong.

Strazdas · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

walshb wrote: »

High probability restrictions extended past April 19?

Yes indeed : I've seen some suggestions that restrictions could start to be lifted around Europe at some point in mid to late May. Definitely by the first week of June, we should be beginning to come out at the other end of the crisis.

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 02:19PM

walshb wrote: »

High probability restrictions extended past April 19?

Way too early to guess. See how the next two weeks pan out. Some probably will anyway.

gabeeg · 25-03-2020 02:20PM

gmisk wrote: »

No test for me apparently because of new HSE guidelines i.e I don't have a temp.
But I have pain everytime I breathe, sore throat, headache, aches and pains all over. Plus I have had pneunonia before.

But I have been told the whole household has to self isolate for 2 weeks. Given sick cert for 2 weeks. Cal an ambulance if I get any worse.

Oh and they made sure to take my card details as soon as possible after anyway.

That is ridiculous

Hope you get well soon. Weren't you supposed to be on holidays about now?

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:20PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I just heard on the radio that up to 100 youths had to be broken up in Donnycarney, down the road from me, last night. Also teens have been arrested for spitting at Garda and people in Waterford and Dun Laoighaire.
I really hope the Garda beat the absolute living f*ck out of them. They should also be banned from hospitals for life.

Was reported on RTE Radio 1 a few minutes ago. They're going to be covering it in "News at one"

take everything · 25-03-2020 02:21PM

Coyote wrote: »

No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 42K
3 weeks slow change 23K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 241K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

That's sobering. No matter what happens, it seems ICUs will be overwhelmed or at max capacity in a week or two.

Edit: notwithstanding the point made below about the ICUs average stay being 2 weeks and subsequent recoveries/deaths, the first two look grim. And the third is pretty bad.

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP