CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

Blueshoe · 24-03-2020 11:07PM

Coyote wrote: »

posting this again due to the speed of the thread
No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 42K
3 weeks slow change 23K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 241K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

If people aren't mixing the virus cannot spread. It's not possible.
As it stands many people are still going to work tomorrow so there's no reason the virus won't continue to spread. But obviously with the restrictions in place the opportunity to spread will obviously be much less

elperello · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

pawdee wrote: »

Ok Father Matthew. Relax.

Yes a touch of the neo-prohibitionist agenda at work on this.

Mwengwe · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

When the figures from China were compared over a number of days and combined with the emergence of international figures it was inevitable IMO. I did my ‘shop’ in late January. It ended up being useful as it covered me for stuff that I couldn’t get when the rush came a couple of weeks ago.

I admire the foresight and am glad it's paying off for you, but you can't really blame people for not studying statistics from China and just hoping for the best with regard to a potential pandemic. There are always worrying things on the horizon - not too long ago journalists 'ITK' were saying that Trump was on the verge of nuclear war and that we should all be preparing for the worst.

At a certain point you have to tune this stuff out and live your life, or become an anxious prepper, or maybe find a middle ground. I do wish I'd taken it a bit more seriously maybe a couple of weeks earlier, mind you.

Professor Moriarty · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

careless sherpa wrote: »

The threads on this site will make an interesting document for someone to be pouring over 200 years from now.

There probably won't be a person in 200 years.

LaFuton · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

2lazytogetup wrote: »

Suggest reading the first thread from Jan 2020. Intriguing vhow some sawthis coming

i started the first thread. and i was late doing so.

robinph · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

saabsaab wrote: »

I agree! i was trying to show how are risk people are. You need to assume that now. If you enter a supermarket during the day you will be in contact with say 100 people and all those who have gone earlier!

If going to the supermarket was such a risky thing to do then surely some country by now would have figured that out through their contact tracing and changed things to deliverys only, or you have to stand at the door and someone else goes and fetches stuff from the shelves for you whilst you stay in your car with your windows up and they then drop the bags in your boot for you.

Yes, keep your distance in supermarkets, don't breath on people, reduce contact as much as possible. But if there were contact tracing being done and the only link they could find between cases was someone going to the local Tesco 6 hours after a known case then things would be very very different... and it would already be too late for all of us.

threeball · 24-03-2020 11:08PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A woman in the Land of the Free was billed $34,927.43 for Covid-19 testing and treatment.

https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/

This will be a profitable time for the yanks. They'll get every penny of their trillion dollar stimulus back in hospital charges.
Joke of a country

gmisk · 24-03-2020 11:09PM

pH wrote: »

Yep they closed pubs on the 20th, we closed then 4 whole days earlier on the 16th. Was that massive backtracking by the Irish govt?

Remember 4 days before that (12th March) Leo was taking this all so seriously he was in the USA on a pre-paddy's day junket as he announced school closures and event closures (but no pub closures).

Was it 'massive backtracking' when 4 days later he closed the pubs?

And I have searched for Boris' statement that the UK was following a 'herd immunity' approach. Perhaps you can link to it, or one made by any member of the UK govt?

The government's chief science adviser literally said it in an interview.
https://twitter.com/SholaMos1/status/1242153134463516673?s=09

Dominic Cummings has also been widely stated to have said similar and worse.

FVP3 · 24-03-2020 11:10PM

pH wrote: »

You just 'know that' do you? link please.

Should he link to proof that the sky is blue? That grass is green? That a rose by any other name would smell as sweet?

Why do Irish people get so upset at minor criticism of Britain, anyway?

tobefrank321 · 24-03-2020 11:11PM

Thanks for spreadsheets Coyote. Its reasonable to say that slow change is the most realistic scenario at this point in time.

Wolf359f · 24-03-2020 11:11PM

We seem to be following the UK curve (based on cases from 100 onward)
Not that the UK were doing anything to flatten their curve until yesterday.

spookwoman · 24-03-2020 11:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They are 1-2 days behind in the NVRL he said. He also pointed out that positive tests are about 6%-7%. Holohan said in one of the earlier briefings that flu test positives are often in the order of 40% and that they expected this testing to go way higher than 7%. They've now changed the case definition for GPs so that they prioritise the most likely cases. Their thinking is that people are infected with other things and they need a better focus on probable cases.

He said everyone that had been tested was contacted yet there are people who have been swabbed and still waiting a week or so later for the call. I think they are still looking at swabs from before the 13th

gmisk · 24-03-2020 11:12PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

We seem to be following the UK curve (based on cases from 100 onward)
Not that the UK were doing anything to flatten their curve until yesterday.

The big difference is we are testing a serious amount of people per head of population versus the uk

tobefrank321 · 24-03-2020 11:12PM

mattser wrote: »

Simon very impressive on Prime Time. Always looks a bit wan. We're lucky to have himself, Leo, and the other Simon at this time.

They are masters at PR I will give them that.

froog · 24-03-2020 11:13PM

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fox4/status/1242445397580283905?s=21

:eek:

and that's trump's thinking the last few days too by the way. he's probably going to pull back most control measures in a few weeks when they haven't even reached their peak yet. it's going to get very ugly there if he goes through with it and make italy look like a bad flu season.

GooglePlus · 24-03-2020 11:14PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Good to hear. As many hands as possible. I'm working as per usual. Where have you been redeployed from?

I'd prefer not to say but I can say that all civil servants who aren't in roles now deemed essential will be redeployed to services that are, that's the nature of the beast.

That could be movement internally within their Department or on to other Departments such as DEASP or the HSE.

It's far from foot off the accelerator at the minute, it's all hands on deck.

martin101 · 24-03-2020 11:14PM

My office is back in tomorrow. All staff where called by our manager and told to report to work in the morning. Our office would be 90% non essential work and 10% essential but the manager used the whole "it's under the same umbrella" phrase to get everyone in. Some people where very upset who said they would work from home but weren't given the option even though their work isnt essential. Some others said they might just go out sick and not come in at all. I'm off until Monday myself but if Monday comes and I'm due in then i don't know what I'll do. Unless buses or more of a lockdown happens

tobefrank321 · 24-03-2020 11:15PM

robinph wrote: »

If going to the supermarket was such a risky thing to do then surely some country by now would have figured that out through their contact tracing and changed things to deliverys only, or you have to stand at the door and someone else goes and fetches stuff from the shelves for you whilst you stay in your car with your windows up and they then drop the bags in your boot for you.

Yes, keep your distance in supermarkets, don't breath on people, reduce contact as much as possible. But if there were contact tracing being done and the only link they could find between cases was someone going to the local Tesco 6 hours after a known case then things would be very very different... and it would already be too late for all of us.

Work and public transport are probably more likely. In all the photos of the luas here and tube in the UK its rare to see anyone wearing gloves for example. Suicidal ignorance you might say.

Quantum Erasure · 24-03-2020 11:15PM

kingston mills, sounds like a sliced pan

is_that_so · 24-03-2020 11:16PM

spookwoman wrote: »

He said everyone that had been tested was contacted yet there are people who have been swabbed and still waiting a week or so later for the call. I think they are still looking at swabs from before the 13th

No, he said 22nd-23rd in the NVRL and that 18000 have received results. They also mentioned the 20000 a day looking for tests, which from the perspective of this are not practical or useful to test. I think they expect their new definitions to have much higher level of positives.

grinder23 · 24-03-2020 11:17PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Change in case definition for a test.

As expected a large number of people simply with a cough or even a bit of a head cold looking for testing.

Must have 2 symptoms now, previously cough or fever, now both.

Not necessarily know someone today who has no fever whatsoever but has cough and tight chest and suffers from asthma who's gp ordered a test but couldn't give a time frame

gmisk · 24-03-2020 11:17PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Work and public transport are probably more likely. In all the photos of the luas here and tube in the UK its rare to see anyone wearing gloves for example. Suicidal ignorance you might say.

The difference is our public transport at least in Dublin is pretty much empty now, the tube at least in London still looks to be absolutely heaving.

2lazytogetup · 24-03-2020 11:18PM

martin101 wrote: »

My office is back in tomorrow. All staff where called by our manager and told to report to work in the morning. Our office would be 90% non essential work and 10% essential but the manager used the whole "it's under the same umbrella" phrase to get everyone in. Some people where very upset who said they would work from home but weren't given the option even though their work isnt essential. Some others said they might just go out sick and not come in at all. I'm off until Monday myself but if Monday comes and I'm due in then i don't know what I'll do. Unless buses or more of a lockdown happens

I'd find out if any announcements are made tomorrow. If you are laid off, you need to get your SW form in

tigger123 · 24-03-2020 11:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are masters at PR I will give them that.

You can't manage a crisis like this through PR. They're doing an excellent job. Harris in particular.

Professor Moriarty · 24-03-2020 11:19PM

gmisk wrote: »

The difference is our public transport at least in Dublin is pretty much empty now, the tube at least in London still looks to be absolutely heaving.

5,000,000+ trips per day on average.

Mervyn Skidmore · 24-03-2020 11:19PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I'd prefer not to say but I can say that all civil servants who aren't in roles now deemed essential will be redeployed to services that are, that's the nature of the beast.

That could be movement internally within their Department or on to other Departments such as DEASP or the HSE.

It's far from foot off the accelerator at the minute, it's all hands on deck.

Fair play to you. As a civil servant myself who's working in an agency that's been deemed an essential service at the minute, it's a nice change for some people to finally have some appreciation for the work we do. Makes a change from the "useless b*stards" line often trotted out.

BorneTobyWilde · 24-03-2020 11:19PM

Pence talking like New York is the epicentre, Trump talks of opening up huge parts of US at Easter, isolating New York it seems

declanflynn · 24-03-2020 11:22PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are masters at PR I will give them that.

Good lord

elperello · 24-03-2020 11:23PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are masters at PR I will give them that.

Well to be truthful they do have a lot of staff and media advisors but having acknowledged that would you replace them now?

24-03-2020 11:23PM

Every Luas and Bus I see go past are virtually empty, nothing like the tube photos.

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP