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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • #6572
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,442 ✭✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    2lazytogetup wrote: »
    Suggest reading the first thread from Jan 2020. Intriguing vhow some sawthis coming

    i thought i saw it coming, I didn't see this coming...


  • #6573
    flashforward
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 325 ✭✭flashforward


    Stheno wrote: »
    I have to say I found tonight's briefing very reassuring

    We're well below the projected figures we are testing more than other countries and we are doing ok

    I'm three weeks wfh at the moment and honest to God if you told me three weeks ago my life would change this much I'd have laughed

    I have to say I'm not a Leo fan but the two Simon's are fighting a blinder

    Simon Harris looks unwell, I hope he is ok

    I got the exact opposite of what you interpreted.

    Right now we are only getting results from 1350 swabs per day. This is pathetic and we will only see ~5 >20% of these testing positive which means unless we take the finger out of the arse we are blind to what's really going on


  • #6574
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,052 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Unfortunately cases manifest in clusters. It is not a uniform distribution. Most of the cases could be in one area and you rock up thinking you've got a 1 in 300 chance of contracting it. Epidemics don't work like that.

    The probability is varies massively. There's a reason they say assume everyone has it.


    I agree! i was trying to show how are risk people are. You need to assume that now. If you enter a supermarket during the day you will be in contact with say 100 people and all those who have gone earlier!


  • #6575
    mattser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,425 ✭✭✭mattser


    Stheno wrote: »
    I have to say I found tonight's briefing very reassuring

    We're well below the projected figures we are testing more than other countries and we are doing ok

    I'm three weeks wfh at the moment and honest to God if you told me three weeks ago my life would change this much I'd have laughed

    I have to say I'm not a Leo fan but the two Simon's are fighting a blinder

    Simon Harris looks unwell, I hope he is ok

    Simon very impressive on Prime Time. Always looks a bit wan. We're lucky to have himself, Leo, and the other Simon at this time.


  • #6576
    Corkgirl20
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 196 ✭✭Corkgirl20


    ArchXStanton wrote: »
    My mother rang me there today, said one of her friends sons was waiting to be tested... He was part of the Cheltenham idiot brigade


    Somebody working in a private clinic in Cork who had been to Cheltenham tested positive today. Not saying he got it from Cheltenham, could have been from a patient. But whoever went to Cheltenham is an idiot.


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  • #6577
    Coyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote


    posting this again due to the speed of the thread
    No Change in number
    506892.PNG

    Slow Change
    506893.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    506894.PNG

    again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
    everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

    3 weeks no change 42K
    3 weeks slow change 23K
    3 weeks big drop 9K

    1 month no change 241K
    1 month slow change 56K
    1 month big drop 11K

    you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now


  • #6578
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,442 ✭✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    pH wrote: »
    And I have searched for Boris' statement that the UK was following a 'herd immunity' approach. Perhaps you can link to it, or one made by any member of the UK govt?

    the phrase 'herd immunity' wasn't used, but that was what they were going for


  • #6579
    dummy_crusher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭dummy_crusher


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    i thought you wouldn't necessarily have a fever, Claire Byrne didn't have one

    Not necessarily AFAIK.

    Worth noting is that in or around 98% of global cases requiring hospitalisation had fever.

    Edit: I just looked it up, don't mind me, I'm tired - 100% of ICU cases in the Wang study (n=138) had fever.

    Not much to go on really...

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/


  • #6580
    pH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭pH


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    the phrase 'herd immunity' wasn't used, but that was what they were going for

    You just 'know that' do you? link please.


  • #6581
    pawdee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 574 ✭✭✭pawdee


    MipMap wrote: »
    Saw this in RTE news!
    This is ridiculous!

    Ok Father Matthew. Relax.


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  • #6582
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    Just watching Dr Fauci at the press conference in Washington. He’s the only credible person on that platform.


  • #6583
    careless sherpa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 373 ✭✭careless sherpa


    2lazytogetup wrote: »
    Suggest reading the first thread from Jan 2020. Intriguing vhow some sawthis coming

    The threads on this site will make an interesting document for someone to be pouring over 200 years from now.


  • #6584
    Kingston Plain Truck
    Posts: 13,753 ✭✭✭✭ Kingston Plain Truck


    A woman in the Land of the Free was billed $34,927.43 for Covid-19 testing and treatment.

    https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/


  • #6585
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 25 - Tuesday 24/03/2020

    Today's Stats:-
    Total cases: 1329
    Daily case increase: 18.13%
    Daily case confirmation increase/decrease: -6.85%
    Mortality rate: 0.53%
    Recovery rate: 0.38%
    Poplulation infected: 0.027%

    Average daily cases change since day 1 (29/02/20): 38.20%
    Average daily cases change last 10 days (since 15/03/20): 26.67%
    Average daily cases change last 7 days (since 18/03/20): 24.69%
    Average daily cases last 3 days (since 22/03/20): 19.24%

    Average daily case confirmation since day 1 (29/02/20): 47.17%
    Average daily case confirmation last 10 days (since 15/03/20): 27.04%
    Average daily case confirmation last 7 days (since 18/03/20): 29.29%
    Average daily case confirmation last 3 days (since 22/03/20): 30.92%


    For comparrison, yesterdays day 1, 3 day, 7 day and 10 day averages:-
    GM228 wrote: »
    Average daily cases change since day 1 (29/02/20): 39.04%
    Average daily cases change last 10 days (since 14/03/20): 29.19%
    Average daily cases change last 7 days (since 17/03/20): 26.52%
    Average daily cases last 3 days (since 21/03/20): 18.17%

    Average daily case confirmation since day 1 (29/02/20): 49.42%
    Average daily case confirmation last 10 days (since 14/03/20): 37.22%
    Average daily case confirmation last 7 days (since 17/03/20): 34.24%
    Average daily case confirmation last 3 days (since 21/03/20): 26.86%



    DAY
    |
    DATE
    |
    Cases
    |
    New Cases
    |
    Total Cases
    |
    Case Increase
    |
    Daily Reporting Change
    |
    Deaths to date
    |
    Mortality Rate
    |
    Hospitalised
    |
    Hospital Rate
    |
    ICU
    |
    ICU Rate
    |
    *Recovered
    |
    Recovery Rate
    |
    Population %

    1|29/02/2020|0|1|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    2|01/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    3|02/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    4|03/03/2020|1|1|2|100.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    5|04/03/2020|2|4|6|200.00%|300.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    6|05/03/2020|6|7|13|116.67%|75.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    7|06/03/2020|13|5|18|38.46%|-28.57%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    8|07/03/2020|18|1|19|5.56%|-80.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    9|08/03/2020|19|2|21|10.53%|100.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    10|09/03/2020|21|3|24|14.29%|50.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%
    11|10/03/2020|24|10|34|41.67%|233.33%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%
    12|11/03/2020|34|9|43|26.47%|-10.00%|1|2.33%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%
    13|12/03/2020|43|27|70|62.79%|200.00%|1|1.43%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%
    14|13/03/2020|70|20|90|28.57%|-25.93%|1|1.11%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.002%
    15|14/03/2020|90|39|129|43.33%|95.00%|2|1.55%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%
    16|15/03/2020|129|40|169|31.01%|2.56%|2|1.18%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%
    17|16/03/2020|169|54|223|31.95%|35.00%|2|0.90%|84|37.7%|6|2.69%|5|2.24%|0.005%
    18|17/03/2020|223|69|292|30.94%|27.78%|2|0.68%|108|37%|7|2.40%|5|1.71%|0.006%
    19|18/03/2020|292|74|366|25.34%|7.25%|2|0.55%|140|38.8%|12|3.28%%|5|1.37%|0.007%
    20|19/03/2020|366|191|557|52.19%|158.11%|3|0.54%|173|31.1%|13|2.33%|5|0.9%|0.011%
    21|20/03/2020|557|126|683|22.62%|-34.03%|3|0.44%|211|30.9%|13|1.90%|5|0.73%|0.014%
    22|21/03/2020|683|102|785|14.93%|-19.05%|3|0.38%|239|30.4%|25|3.18%|5|0.64%|0.016%
    23|22/03/2020|785|121|906|15.41%|18.63%|4|0.44%|277|30.6%|36|3.97%|5|0.64%|0.018%
    24|23/03/2020|906|219|1125|24.17%|80.99%|6|0.53%|NR|NR|36|3.20%|5|0.44%|0.023%
    25|24/03/2020|1129|204|1329|18.13%|-6.85%|7|0.53%|NR|NR|36|2.71%|5|0.38%|0.027%

    NR = Not Reported

    Source: Department of Health

    *"Recovered" rates are not reported by the Department of Health in the above link, these figures are taken from the Worldmeters and Johns Hopkins websites which use data suplied by the DoT to the ECDC under the WHO Guidelines for reporting.

    Day 20 - Thursday 19/03/20 Stats
    Day 21 - Friday 20/03/20 Stats
    Day 22 - Saturday 21/03/20 Stats
    Day 23 - Sunday 22/03/20 Stats
    Day 24 - Monday 23/03/20 Stats


  • #6586
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    flashforward wrote: »
    With the delays in getting swabbed coupled with the delay in getting a result from that swab we dont have a clue where we really are with this thing.

    The labs only have capacity to get results from 1350 tests per day. This means that unless we can increase that capacity we will sit on ~200 cases per day
    They are 1-2 days behind in the NVRL he said. He also pointed out that positive tests are about 6%-7%. Holohan said in one of the earlier briefings that flu test positives are often in the order of 40% and that they expected this testing to go way higher than 7%. They've now changed the case definition for GPs so that they prioritise the most likely cases. Their thinking is that people are infected with other things and they need a better focus on probable cases.


  • #6587
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,957 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Coyote wrote: »
    posting this again due to the speed of the thread
    No Change in number
    506892.PNG

    Slow Change
    506893.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    506894.PNG

    again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
    everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

    3 weeks no change 42K
    3 weeks slow change 23K
    3 weeks big drop 9K

    1 month no change 241K
    1 month slow change 56K
    1 month big drop 11K

    you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

    If people aren't mixing the virus cannot spread. It's not possible.
    As it stands many people are still going to work tomorrow so there's no reason the virus won't continue to spread. But obviously with the restrictions in place the opportunity to spread will obviously be much less


  • #6588
    elperello
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    pawdee wrote: »
    Ok Father Matthew. Relax.

    Yes a touch of the neo-prohibitionist agenda at work on this.


  • #6589
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    Pablo Escobar wrote: »
    When the figures from China were compared over a number of days and combined with the emergence of international figures it was inevitable IMO. I did my ‘shop’ in late January. It ended up being useful as it covered me for stuff that I couldn’t get when the rush came a couple of weeks ago.

    I admire the foresight and am glad it's paying off for you, but you can't really blame people for not studying statistics from China and just hoping for the best with regard to a potential pandemic. There are always worrying things on the horizon - not too long ago journalists 'ITK' were saying that Trump was on the verge of nuclear war and that we should all be preparing for the worst.

    At a certain point you have to tune this stuff out and live your life, or become an anxious prepper, or maybe find a middle ground. I do wish I'd taken it a bit more seriously maybe a couple of weeks earlier, mind you.


  • #6590
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    careless sherpa wrote: »
    The threads on this site will make an interesting document for someone to be pouring over 200 years from now.

    There probably won't be a person in 200 years.


  • #6591
    LaFuton
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 784 ✭✭✭LaFuton


    2lazytogetup wrote: »
    Suggest reading the first thread from Jan 2020. Intriguing vhow some sawthis coming

    i started the first thread. and i was late doing so.


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  • #6592
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    saabsaab wrote: »
    I agree! i was trying to show how are risk people are. You need to assume that now. If you enter a supermarket during the day you will be in contact with say 100 people and all those who have gone earlier!

    If going to the supermarket was such a risky thing to do then surely some country by now would have figured that out through their contact tracing and changed things to deliverys only, or you have to stand at the door and someone else goes and fetches stuff from the shelves for you whilst you stay in your car with your windows up and they then drop the bags in your boot for you.

    Yes, keep your distance in supermarkets, don't breath on people, reduce contact as much as possible. But if there were contact tracing being done and the only link they could find between cases was someone going to the local Tesco 6 hours after a known case then things would be very very different... and it would already be too late for all of us.


  • #6593
    threeball
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,808 ✭✭✭threeball


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    A woman in the Land of the Free was billed $34,927.43 for Covid-19 testing and treatment.

    https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/

    This will be a profitable time for the yanks. They'll get every penny of their trillion dollar stimulus back in hospital charges.
    Joke of a country


  • #6594
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,525 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    pH wrote: »
    Yep they closed pubs on the 20th, we closed then 4 whole days earlier on the 16th. Was that massive backtracking by the Irish govt?

    Remember 4 days before that (12th March) Leo was taking this all so seriously he was in the USA on a pre-paddy's day junket as he announced school closures and event closures (but no pub closures).

    Was it 'massive backtracking' when 4 days later he closed the pubs?

    And I have searched for Boris' statement that the UK was following a 'herd immunity' approach. Perhaps you can link to it, or one made by any member of the UK govt?
    The government's chief science adviser literally said it in an interview.
    https://twitter.com/SholaMos1/status/1242153134463516673?s=09

    Dominic Cummings has also been widely stated to have said similar and worse.


  • #6595
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    pH wrote: »
    You just 'know that' do you? link please.

    Should he link to proof that the sky is blue? That grass is green? That a rose by any other name would smell as sweet?

    Why do Irish people get so upset at minor criticism of Britain, anyway?


  • #6596
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Thanks for spreadsheets Coyote. Its reasonable to say that slow change is the most realistic scenario at this point in time.


  • #6597
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    We seem to be following the UK curve (based on cases from 100 onward)
    Not that the UK were doing anything to flatten their curve until yesterday.


  • #6598
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,149 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They are 1-2 days behind in the NVRL he said. He also pointed out that positive tests are about 6%-7%. Holohan said in one of the earlier briefings that flu test positives are often in the order of 40% and that they expected this testing to go way higher than 7%. They've now changed the case definition for GPs so that they prioritise the most likely cases. Their thinking is that people are infected with other things and they need a better focus on probable cases.

    He said everyone that had been tested was contacted yet there are people who have been swabbed and still waiting a week or so later for the call. I think they are still looking at swabs from before the 13th


  • #6599
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,525 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    We seem to be following the UK curve (based on cases from 100 onward)
    Not that the UK were doing anything to flatten their curve until yesterday.
    The big difference is we are testing a serious amount of people per head of population versus the uk


  • #6600
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    mattser wrote: »
    Simon very impressive on Prime Time. Always looks a bit wan. We're lucky to have himself, Leo, and the other Simon at this time.

    They are masters at PR I will give them that.


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  • #6601
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/fox4/status/1242445397580283905?s=21

    :eek:

    and that's trump's thinking the last few days too by the way. he's probably going to pull back most control measures in a few weeks when they haven't even reached their peak yet. it's going to get very ugly there if he goes through with it and make italy look like a bad flu season.


This discussion has been closed.
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