Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP

PopePalpatine · 13-03-2020 08:52PM

laugh wrote: »

Dog and pony show to try change the reality of Trumps abhorrent attitude to this up until a few days ago.

We were always yugely at war with coronavirus, believe me.

gmisk · 13-03-2020 08:53PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Hungary as apparently expelled two Iranians who are contaminated but didn’t comply with the quarantine requirements.

I’m wondering how they expelled them though... those are crazy times but that can’t have put known sick people on a regular flight?

Hopefully fired them out of a cannon back into Iran...dopes

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2020 08:54PM

cnocbui · 13-03-2020 08:54PM

OneColdHand wrote: »

He's shaking hands with everyone!!!

Good!

laugh · 13-03-2020 08:54PM

yermandan wrote: »

This Trump Presser is basically product placement on steroids, thinly veiled as a national emergency announcement. It is disgusting

Smells like they are not as prepared they are saying.

littlemac1980 · 13-03-2020 08:54PM

Musefan wrote: »

So... I work as a psychologist in a disability service. Looks like I may be redeployed from next week on to another area of the health service to assist.

That’s what happened in Italy. The doctor that warned people to take this seriously mentioned they in Italy there are now nolonger specialists, no paediatricians, no orthopaedic surgeons, no anaesthesiologists, just all Doctors working together in the front lines! Bravo!

dougm1970 · 13-03-2020 08:54PM

that elbow bumping is the daftest thing.

daheff · 13-03-2020 08:55PM

bekker wrote: »

Employing that method, the exponent of 1.275 with a start date of 23rd Feb. yielded the closest back-fit and a total of 91 for yesterday, 101 for 13th March, and 129 for 14th March.

Fit 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 14 18 24 30 38 49 62 79 101 129 164
if you want to extent for 17 more days,
210 267 341 434 554 706 900 1148 1463 1866 2379 3033 3867 4930 6286 8015 10218

This is extremely simplistic curve fitting, not complex modelling, but you can see why it was necessary to move quickly.

An easy way for people to play around with this is

Today's total infected*(1+%increase)^number of days into future

So using a 27.5% daily increase from today until Easter we have

90*(1.275)^30=131,688

Just using this to 29th March we have
90*(1.275)^15= 3442

I hope your exponent doesn't hold true in the future bekker!

Ronan|Raven · 13-03-2020 08:55PM

Hyzepher wrote: »

It's funny that they are so focused on being brilliant for providing tests - not one word about how patients are going to be treated once they get the virus.

Expensively.

wonski · 13-03-2020 08:55PM

Class MayDresser wrote: »

Saw a few videos off a polish friends WhatsApp, it's mental over there in the supermarkets

Nah. My parents doing just fine. Both my brothers and sisters are trying to help them with shopping but they(the parents) are better stocked than I am.

Same issue as here, Lidl ripped off all stock only to have some back next day or in an hour;)

Trucks and cargo flights not affected

spookwoman · 13-03-2020 08:55PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Fecking disgrace. Really a sign of a ****ed up society

I wonder will Taco Bell win in the end

threeball · 13-03-2020 08:56PM

bekker wrote: »

An epidemic follows a bell curve which can have a high exponential growth rate (with R0 >1) until the rate of transmission slows due to each new cases having fewer non-infected hosts available to infect, as the exponent reduces the curve becomes less acute, flattens and tapers down.

So the point on the curve depends on the exponent at work (which varies daily and is related to the interaction of the R0 factor with it's operational environment), and the time elapsed since first infection. Any figures I come up are pure guesstimates based on a range of exponents (based on the limits reported world-wide (-China) , applied to each day's cases for a range of start dates for the initial infection.

Employing that method, the exponent of 1.275 with a start date of 23rd Feb. yielded the closest back-fit and a total of 91 for yesterday, 101 for 13th March, and 129 for 14th March.

Hopefully in the next 7 days or so the daily growth in cases will have settled close to/on one of those curves, at present the closest exponent is 1.275 but I expect/hope that to fall to within the world-wide range as time passes. At the beginning of March an exponent of 1.30 was giving a better correlation to the daily totals reported.

Fit 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 14 18 24 30 38 49 62 79 101 129 164
if you want to extent for 17 more days,
210 267 341 434 554 706 900 1148 1463 1866 2379 3033 3867 4930 6286 8015 10218

This is extremely simplistic curve fitting, not complex modelling, but you can see why it was necessary to move quickly.

But in reality thats just buying time as when you lift the measures and they will have to lift the measures then the upward curve starts again. The big problem with this virus is it transmits even without symptoms where SARS only became transmittable after you had been sick for a couple of days. Therefore its hard to isolate cases and slow the rate of transmission. The only possible way is to force families to isolate in their homes for 3 weeks, letting those that have it see it through til the immune system overcomes it. With no supporting body left it cannot survive but thats next to impossible

OneColdHand · 13-03-2020 08:56PM

Pence just listing all those companies again in case we missed them!

Spanish Eyes · 13-03-2020 08:56PM

laugh wrote: »

Smells like they are not as prepared they are saying.

The cynic in me agrees with you. All talk no action, must look good for the world etc.

I just noticed (because Trump didn't have a teleprompter) that when he was looking down at his notes I could see the goggle marks from when he has tanning treatment. Jayzis I'm losing it now.

Cork Boy 53 · 13-03-2020 08:57PM

touts wrote: »

Boris' policy seems to be let the old and the sick die as quickly as possible so once the fit and healthy recover in a few weeks Britain can dominate the world once again.

I do believe you`re right, A complete and utter ****wit excuse of a leader.

amadangomor · 13-03-2020 08:57PM

yermandan wrote: »

This Trump Presser is basically product placement on steroids, thinly veiled as a national emergency announcement. It is disgusting

And surreal, it's like watching a dystopian movie but this **** is actually happening!!!

Gooey Looey · 13-03-2020 08:57PM

NI has its first community transmission
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-51879525

Quantum Erasure · 13-03-2020 08:57PM

Hyzepher wrote: »

It's funny that they are so focused on being brilliant for providing tests - not one word about how patients are going to be treated once they get the virus.

he said that would be covered yeterday, but he was speaking off the cuff, so i wouldn't trust he knows what he's talking about

Cupatae · 13-03-2020 08:58PM

threeball wrote: »

But in reality thats just buying time as when you lift the measures and they will have to lift the measures then the upward curve starts again. The big problem with this virus is it transmits even without symptoms where SARS only became transmittable after you had been sick for a couple of days. Therefore its hard to isolate cases and slow the rate of transmission. The only possible way is to force families to isolate in their homes for 3 weeks, letting those that have it see it through til the immune system overcomes it. With no supporting body left it cannot survive but thats next to impossible

The other route is if so many of us get infected it stops the transmission

Xertz · 13-03-2020 08:58PM

touts wrote: »

Boris' policy seems to be let the old and the sick die as quickly as possible so once the fit and healthy recover in a few weeks Britain can dominate the world once again.

Well, they do operate in brutal free market economics mode most of the time. It's just exactly what they did in Ireland in the 1840s.

Jim_Hodge · 13-03-2020 08:58PM

The Dow Jones has risen by 7.9% since Trump started talking. At least he'll be happy.

cnocbui · 13-03-2020 08:58PM

Musefan wrote: »

So... I work as a psychologist in a disability service. Looks like I may be redeployed from next week on to another area of the health service to assist.

So you have just been told you are being sent to the Eastern front to fight the Russians?

RandomName2 · 13-03-2020 08:59PM

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Considering the mayor of Florence organised a hug a Chinese tourist campaign in January, I don't think we can blame the Chinese for letting it into Italy.

I couldn't entirely believe you so I looked it up

They were really asking for trouble with that one.

wadacrack · 13-03-2020 08:59PM

Feeling quite worried about the situation in Ireland now. I'm not really seeing the community as a whole taking it as seriously as they should.

yermandan · 13-03-2020 08:59PM

No mention of how people will get treated

AlmightyCushion · 13-03-2020 08:59PM

Summary of this press conference. Isn't trump great, lads.

Cupatae · 13-03-2020 08:59PM

cnocbui wrote: »

So you have just been told you are being sent to the Eastern front to fight the Russians?

All must give to the cause comrade

RandomName2 · 13-03-2020 09:00PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

The Dow Jones has risen by 7.9% since Trump started talking. At least he'll be happy.

Who would have thought that combating a pandemic that threatens worldwide economies could benefit worldwide economies?

There you go folks. It wasn't that western leaders were greedy. They were just stupid.

J Mysterio · 13-03-2020 09:00PM

Monkeynut wrote: »

A Soldier in Italy on the streets. Live cam

https://worldcams.tv/italy/rome/navona-square

Edit: He's out of view now.

Parents where at a restaurant there this time last year, having the time of their lives.

Talisman · 13-03-2020 09:00PM

OneColdHand wrote: »

He's shaking hands with everyone!!!

What they don't reveal is that afterwards he scrubs his hands with sterowipes.

Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP