Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP

laugh · 13-03-2020 08:45PM

Dog and pony show to try change the reality of Trumps abhorrent attitude to this up until a few days ago.

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 08:45PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Well if he got his finger out earlier the spread could have been minimized. Anyone daft enough to choose to be reactive rather than proactive deserves ridicule.

This was never going to be contained as we've seen from every other country and this latest phase was expected.

cloudatlas · 13-03-2020 08:46PM

upandcumming wrote: »

They'll poison us with that shite.

? They’ve stopped testing unless necessary because they are passed containment, as is Ireland.

OneColdHand · 13-03-2020 08:46PM

Next product placement: Walmart.

thomas 123 · 13-03-2020 08:46PM

Is there not a trump bashing thread somewhere else on boards...

bottlebrush · 13-03-2020 08:46PM

Did they just shake hands?

Tootsie_1 · 13-03-2020 08:46PM

Why is trump dragging them all up one by one to speak my god it’s a national emergency not show and tell

OneColdHand · 13-03-2020 08:47PM

He's shaking hands with everyone!!!

Boggles · 13-03-2020 08:47PM

And this National Emergency was sponsored by Coke.

What the fúck am I watching?

all about the mane · 13-03-2020 08:47PM

Are new case numbers in Ireland down today from yesterday?

littlemac1980 · 13-03-2020 08:47PM

Jays ya they even have the guy from Walmart there. Everything is fine America, go back to sleep America, your government has this under control, go back to sleep America. We have a flow diagram!

bekker · 13-03-2020 08:48PM

munster87 wrote: »

How many are you waiting for realistically before trying to contain?

An epidemic follows a bell curve which can have a high exponential growth rate (with R0 >1) until the rate of transmission slows due to each new cases having fewer non-infected hosts available to infect, as the exponent reduces the curve becomes less acute, flattens and tapers down.

So the point on the curve depends on the exponent at work (which varies daily and is related to the interaction of the R0 factor with it's operational environment), and the time elapsed since first infection. Any figures I come up are pure guesstimates based on a range of exponents (based on the limits reported world-wide (-China) , applied to each day's cases for a range of start dates for the initial infection.

Employing that method, the exponent of 1.275 with a start date of 23rd Feb. yielded the closest back-fit and a total of 91 for yesterday, 101 for 13th March, and 129 for 14th March.

Hopefully in the next 7 days or so the daily growth in cases will have settled close to/on one of those curves, at present the closest exponent is 1.275 but I expect/hope that to fall to within the world-wide range as time passes. At the beginning of March an exponent of 1.30 was giving a better correlation to the daily totals reported.

Fit 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 14 18 24 30 38 49 62 79 101 129 164
if you want to extent for 17 more days,
210 267 341 434 554 706 900 1148 1463 1866 2379 3033 3867 4930 6286 8015 10218

This is extremely simplistic curve fitting, not complex modelling, but you can see why it was necessary to move quickly.

spookwoman · 13-03-2020 08:48PM

1 big advert

cloudatlas · 13-03-2020 08:48PM

For what it’s worth I donated to the WHO fund https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/donate

threeball · 13-03-2020 08:48PM

Acosta wrote: »

Boris Johnson is a fu*king maniac!

Boris is wiping out his base. All the old foggies that voted for Brexit signed up for extermination. He doesn't seem to give a toss

amadangomor · 13-03-2020 08:49PM

OneColdHand wrote: »

He's shaking hands with everyone!!!

It's a Corona party:eek:

Frank Bullitt · 13-03-2020 08:49PM

The chan chan man wrote: »

I am fully convinced that this is a biological weapon.

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hetuzozaho · 13-03-2020 08:49PM

If he does have it he's wiping out all the CEO's of largest companies in the US one by one here now

laugh · 13-03-2020 08:50PM

Lab guy just called people needing tests: consumers!

amadangomor · 13-03-2020 08:50PM

spookwoman wrote: »

1 big advert

Fecking disgrace. Really a sign of a ****ed up society

cnocbui · 13-03-2020 08:50PM

Axfrderr wrote: »

And lying his orange arse off.

So just situation normal then?

Xaniaj · 13-03-2020 08:50PM

The guy from Quest referred to Americans as consumers as opposed to citizens, says it all really with regards to the press conference!

Musefan · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

So... I work as a psychologist in a disability service. Looks like I may be redeployed from next week on to another area of the health service to assist.

Hego Damask · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-11/spains-health-ministry-predicts-coronavirus-epidemic-will-last-between-two-and-five-months.html

Seems very strange ....

Simón has made it clear that the Spanish public will not be subjected in the long term to the precautionary measures that are being introduced to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, which include the closure of schools and restrictions on events with large crowds in risk areas such as the Madrid and La Rioja regions, the city of Vitoria and the municipality of Labastida, both in the Basque Country.

Rather, the effect of these restrictions will start to be noticed in a drop in the number of new cases being reported on a daily basis, as has already been seen in countries that started to suffer the epidemic earlier, such as China and South Korea. This effect will take around nine or 10 days to be noticeable, Simón explained on Wednesday. That is the time it takes between a person becoming infected, noting the first symptoms, and being positively diagnosed, in order to form part of the official statistics.

This is true and interesting, but surely reopening schools would only cause another spike in cases ?

Hamsterchops · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

27th February, Zero cases here in the ROI.

On the 1st of March 2020 the1st case of Covid-19 was recorded here in Ireland by the HSE.

Trajectory from 1st of March . . . .

1, 6, 13, 19, 21, 24, 34, 43, 70, 90, (. . .) . . .

90 confirmed HSE cases recorded here in Ireland as of today, Friday 13th March.

*UK / NHS figure stands at 798 confirmed Covid cases.

yermandan · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

This Trump Presser is basically product placement on steroids, thinly veiled as a national emergency announcement. It is disgusting

Spanish Eyes · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

Ha just watching Trump (missed his ramblings, but someone might summarise thanks).

Got nothing from this since I picked it up when the doctor was speaking about what she was told to say, and apart from gulping at the number of times the mike was moved and all those fkn HANDSHAKES, oh and Target and the other places are for sure open for bizness. Honestly I must be hearing and seeing things.

Bob24 · 13-03-2020 08:51PM

Hungary as apparently expelled two Iranians who are contaminated but didn’t comply with the quarantine requirements.

I’m wondering how they expelled them though... those are crazy times but that can’t have put known sick people on a regular flight?

Hyzepher · 13-03-2020 08:52PM

It's funny that they are so focused on being brilliant for providing tests - not one word about how patients are going to be treated once they get the virus.

Martina1991 · 13-03-2020 08:52PM

Get Real wrote:

The Clare one is collected the same day (say Tuesday) but at 11pm, ambulance finishes shift at 6am (Wednesday). It's then delivered to Dublin, and isn't gotten round to til the day after again (Thursday)

Specimens are transported by courier or taxi, not by ambulance. NAS staff take the swabs but they have to go through the local hospital laboratory first so there is a record and link from the hospital where the pateint is and the NVRL.

I can't speak for all hospitals but ours sends samples for testing directly to the NVRL via taxi when they are taken, even in the middle of the night. We hope to have testing available in house next week.

perrito caliente wrote:

Anybody with medical knowledge know what being tested positive with covid19 entails? What are the markers exactly?

Do you mean what is detected from a Covid test?

The tests are designed to detect specific genetic material within the virus.

Nucleic acid, which holds the virus' genome is extracted. Then certain regions of the genome are amplified. This results in a large sample of genetic material that they can then compare to the new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2.

TLDR Yeah, science bitch!

Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP