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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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    #9452
    banie01
    Registered Users Posts: 16,611 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    A post from a local events cake supplier here in Limerick.
    A small business, completely reliant upon the goodwill and reviews of their customers to keep going.
    Making a very open show of support to their customers and trying to show flexibility. Honestly think little measures like this can help reassure a lot of people whose events are about to be nuked in the coming weeks.
    Here's hoping we can show our hospitality and service industry the same degree of support when normality resumes.

    505256.jpg


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    #9453
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Case of community aquired virus confirmed at Waterford Hospital (RTE News).

    Today with Sean O'Rourke?


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    #9454
    laurah591
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Let’s look at the Chinese numbers.
    90k cases out of a population of 1.4bn. That’s an infection rate of .006%

    Apply this rate to Ireland and you would have:
    32k cases out of a population of 5M.

    20% of 32k is 6,400 hospitalisation. 10% death rate of 6.4k is 640 victims.

    Of course these are VERY rough figures for a period of 3 months for China, but deaths and new cases have nearly stopped over there.

    Will Ireland take the measures China took to slow the spread at "the right time" - what is the expression - you cant time the market - is that whats happening here


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    #9455
    Cee-Jay-Cee
    Registered Users Posts: 12,235 ✭✭✭✭Cee-Jay-Cee


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Closing the schools would have a major impact on society. Like you say what do working parents do and most households with kids would have both working. This would have worked out fine in the 1960's and 70's, but not today. How do folks keep paying mortgages and the like? We'd have to have real leadership from government, with the banks being ordered to have a loan freeze, but that won't happen with the gibbering idiots we have in the Dail.

    On the other hand closing schools would likely limit the spread of this quite substantially. One major positive about this dose is that it doesn't appear to affect children even if they catch it. However it does "use them" as a vector. They can be asymptomatic and infectious and milling together in school builds the viral reserve in the community and they then bring that home. I see this with any of the usual "bug going around" in friends with kids. Said bug is usually brought home by their kids. I saw that in action with the one that was doing the rounds at christmas. I got it from my friend, who had got it from his youngest kid who brought it home from school.

    If they do close the schools then they also need to make sure that parents keep their kids at home and not allow hoards of teenagers to be wandering around towns and shopping centres etc One way that they could do that is simply state that anyone taking time off work to mind children and availing of increased sick pay from social welfare or special leave with pay from their employer will lose that payment if their children are found to be wandering around towns and cities while their parents are sat at home availing of a free holiday.


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    #9456
    Boggles
    Registered Users Posts: 39,866 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If they close the schools next week or the week after - or whenever they do it - it will be very hard to reopen.

    Imagine we have 100 cases next week and they decide to close the schools. After Easter, there will be a multiple of that number and we might still not be at the peak, so how could they declare it safe to reopen?

    Then you get rolling week-by-week decisions to not open the schools until it's June, everyone has found solutions to their work-from-home/child-minding crises, and they decide to just leave them off until the end of August.

    The Italians delayed closing the schools, largely based on kids not getting sick from the virus.

    Their own scientific think tank basically called school closures nonsense.

    5 days later the whole country is locked down and there is tanks on the streets.

    So called experts and politicians are fúcking it up left right and center, lets not be them.


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    #9457
    cloudatlas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,709 ✭✭✭cloudatlas


    Rich people preparing to leave on private jets must be in a quandry.


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    #9458
    RentDayBlues
    Registered Users Posts: 2,131 ✭✭✭RentDayBlues


    This is a great video - not sure if its been posted already or not. But a good description of what is happening, albeit States based https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=E3URhJx0NSw


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    #9459
    Ann22
    Registered Users Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭Ann22


    My mam is nearly 82 with a myriad of health problems..asthma/copd/brichiecstasis/diabetes/heart problems. She is almost blind and doesnt leave the house. She has a vascular clinic apt tomorrow in the Louth hosp. I think she should postpone it. The Secretary on the phone told her everyone is attending as usual. Worried for her though. Think it's best to postpone. What would you guys do?


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    #9460
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If they close the schools next week or the week after - or whenever they do it - it will be very hard to reopen.

    Imagine we have 100 cases next week and they decide to close the schools. After Easter, there will be a multiple of that number and we might still not be at the peak, so how could they declare it safe to reopen?

    Then you get rolling week-by-week decisions to not open the schools until it's June, everyone has found solutions to their work-from-home/child-minding crises, and they decide to just leave them off until the end of August.

    The evidence from China is many kids are asymptomatic spreaders. Meaning they can get the virus from someone else, possibly never know they have it, give it to someone in close contact on the playground or classroom and it goes from there. It could lead to a rapid spread of CV as kids are not exactly known for good hygiene habits.

    There are a myriad of options for remote learning these days - its the lesser of two evils by far.

    If the government allow schools remain open past this week it will be another failure to go with the rest.


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    #9461
    Gods Gift
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,713 ✭✭✭Gods Gift


    If the schools close you’ll have parents driving them the length and breath of the country to some activity to try and tire out the little fookers.


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    #9462
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    PhoenixParker wrote: »
    Italy have surpassed Chinas figures and still rising rapidly.

    And if people think Ireland is better equipped than Italy, let these figures sink in:
    - Italy has 1.25 critical care hospital beds per 1000 of population, which is just above European average.
    - Ireland has ... around 0.6 critical are beds per 1000 of population, one of the lowest figures in Europe.

    We known 5% of patients need critical care and are almost guaranteed to die if it is not delivered. We also know Italy is already overwhelmed by these patients and letting some of them die with no care, significantly increasing mortality rate vs countries which aren’t overwhelmed. Now how will it play out here if we fact the same situation with half the number of beds available?


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    #9463
    martingriff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,748 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    You can lockdown early and save many lives.
    You can lockdown when the sh*t hits the fan after CV really takes hold.

    Either way the economy tanks and a similar amount of jobs are lost.

    This is not rocket science.

    You don't have to do a total lockdown.

    Closing schools for example will lead to few if any job losses if remote schooling is set up properly. Likewise those working from home generally.

    When you lockdown, you still keep essential services running - in fact a lockdown helps keep these services running, as healthcare professionals are not swamped with people getting coronavirus because they went to school or went socialising.

    You can't just say either way the economy will tank and similar job losses. Not everyone can't just work from home shops restaurants couriers etc. If you have to log in to work systems need to be updated in your home. That just does not happen over night. Again you lockdown and then 2 months later you open up and could still be infected.

    I am not saying we do not anything. There are plenty of practical things. Wash hands sneeze and cough in to elbow and limit very large gathering also uf you are sick regardless take the fit and take a couple days off


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    #9464
    RandomName2
    Registered Users Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    laurah591 wrote: »
    Will Ireland take the measures China took to slow the spread at "the right time" - what is the expression - you cant time the market - is that whats happening here

    I know I've already quoted it before, but it's worth doing again

    Dr Paul O’Brien, an Irish regulatory expert based in China, says the most effective mitigation strategy Ireland could have adopted would have been to reduce the risk of infection to zero. “Early adoption of a proactive strategy involving risk-stratified mandatory quarantine of all inward travel from high-risk zones could have made this [the avoidance of panic] a non-issue for Ireland.”


    Seeing that Ireland decided not to do this, it is worth getting rid of the infection before it becomes too late to be able to halt the infection.


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    #9465
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Stevieluvsye wrote: »
    Pro-active!

    Ukraine's capital Kiev will close schools and universities from tomorrow until the end of March to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, city mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

    He said the city would also restrict mass events in the capital, including concerts and conferences. Cinemas and entertainment areas in shopping malls will also close.

    Ukraine has so far reported one coronavirus case

    Same as Paraguay, after only 2 cases!


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    #9466
    RandomName2
    Registered Users Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    Ann22 wrote: »
    My mam is nearly 82 with a myriad of health problems..asthma/copd/brichiecstasis/diabetes/heart problems. She is almost blind and doesnt leave the house. She has a vascular clinic apt tomorrow in the Louth hosp. I think she should postpone it. The Secretary on the phone told her everyone is attending as usual. Worried for her though. Think it's best to postpone. What would you guys do?

    It's really impossible for anyone here to give good advice on this because of the lack of information.

    Because the HSE refuses to say where cases have cropped up it will be difficult to know if the area that your mother lives has had any active cases. Even if they were being candid though, I feel that the testing is lagging behind.

    A vascular clinic sounds important, and that's probably a totally different thing from going to the cinema or bingo that could be just cut out. There's also another consideration that it may be safer to go to the clinic now than in a week or two's time.


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    #9467
    laurah591
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    The Italians had a really good idea with mortgage payment postponements. We will have to do something similar, especially for hard hit areas like tourism and hospitality. Once that happens, the pressure on landlords will be eased so they should be able to reduce or pause rents. Legislation is needed. Proactive legislation. Not Fine Gael's strongpoint unfortunately.

    postponing payments though will just build up issues in the pipeline who were already on a tight rope. In addition - we have a lot of instutional landlords these days - reits and the likes - will these be moving to pause rents


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    #9468
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Ann22 wrote: »
    My mam is nearly 82 with a myriad of health problems..asthma/copd/brichiecstasis/diabetes/heart problems. She is almost blind and doesnt leave the house. She has a vascular clinic apt tomorrow in the Louth hosp. I think she should postpone it. The Secretary on the phone told her everyone is attending as usual. Worried for her though. Think it's best to postpone. What would you guys do?

    If you’re happy with her health at present then I’d postpone. My dad had an appointment for tomorrow in ENT. He gets a checkup every 3 months and we usually sit there for hours and are in with the doctor less than 10 minutes. I can’t see any problems with him so I cancelled it.


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    #9469
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Thewife wrote: »
    Graces7 can we just come and pitch a tent in your garden ? Off shore islands away from mainland and somewhat isolated seems like the safest place to be right now !

    I wish! Afraid a tent would take off.... Like I nearly do many days

    But yes: I feel like an observer in all this. I live in permanent isolation as I am immunesuppressed and am under strict orders to see NO ONE. There is no way the bug can catch me

    A thought though; if any there have holiday homes in rural places and you can, move there for a while?

    Stay as safe as you can out there


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    #9470
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,965 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Many Irish tourist businesses will face bankruptcy. This crisis is hitting just at the start of the main tourist season. For 6 months of the year many tourism businesses are losing money or barely breaking even. The 6 months March to August is when these businesses make the money that enables them to survive for the rest of the year.
    I would expect staff to be let go, loans and utility bills to go unpaid as at this time of year many businesses are running on fumes and expecting cash to start rolling in from this month on.

    I am involved in the industry and 9/11, foot & mouth pales in comparison to this. Of course peoples health is the main priority in this crisis but the economic consequences will be severe and long lasting.

    Absolutely. A recession is guaranteed and a depression is possible. Unemployment rates will be 15% or greater. All that stupid low-rate money means many companies have staggering levels of debt - so called zombie companies only a going concern by borrowing. Current world debt is something like 350% of world GDP. Debt defaults are going to change the landscape. Tourism generates 10% of GDP and that has stalled and the flow-ons from that are just huge. I don't understand the markets - people are buying the dip - it's like bathers splashing around in the shallows of a beach, oblivious to a 30m wave approaching fast.


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    #9471
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If they close the schools next week or the week after - or whenever they do it - it will be very hard to reopen.

    Imagine we have 100 cases next week and they decide to close the schools. After Easter, there will be a multiple of that number and we might still not be at the peak, so how could they declare it safe to reopen?

    Then you get rolling week-by-week decisions to not open the schools until it's June, everyone has found solutions to their work-from-home/child-minding crises, and they decide to just leave them off until the end of August.

    By that stage Ireland may decide not to reopen schools in September, if we are on the same line of trajectory as Italy, UK, Spain, France.

    These are very exceptional circumstances, as one headline a few days ago said 'nothing like we have ever seen in our lifetime' and probably wont see again. It would be a very small sacrifice to make to close the schools asap indefinitely in a bid to stunt the spread of this virus.

    If people are not gathered in one concentrated area, then the virus cant spread. If people decide to lay low and not travel around for a few months, then the virus cannot spread.

    If people think that they can carry on with life as normal, then Italy is our future.


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    #9472
    RandomName2
    Registered Users Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Same as Paraguay, after only 2 cases!

    Obviously they don't have the same **** there going on about 'hysterical scare mongering' or politicians who say 'resign yourself to this being a pandemic'


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    #9473
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Do we know the health status of all those who have been confirmed yet?

    Are they all doing ok?


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    #9474
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    The issue with extreme close downs is,you may be just delaying the inevitable
    When you open back up its rife again because no natural immunity has been built up

    Essentially the response to this is to delay it until health services are at least half ready
    There is no avoiding it this year


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    #9475
    paddy19
    Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭paddy19


    Compare and contrast coverage on BBC Newsnight and Virgin Tonight Show last night.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000g6ps/newsnight-10032020
    (Unfortunately you will need a VPN to play this)

    https://www.virginmediatelevision.ie/player/show/1294

    BCC had fact based coverage with two recognised experts explaining why an immediate lock down does not work. Two renowned experts Larry Brilliant (great name) and Dr. Bruce Aylward gave data based expert advise.

    Tonight show had one great Irish expert taking a controlled fact based approach and John Crown a cancer consultant called for immediate lock down based on his 20 years cancer experience. If I had cancer Dr. Crown would be high of list to talk to understand my options. I don't understand how 20 years treating cancel qualifies Dr. Crown to hold forth with absolute certainly on how we should handle a virus.

    If I had a complex electrical problem with my car that I couldn't fix I would try to find a mechanic who specialised in electrical faults or knew my car model or preferably both.

    For this viral epidemic we need to listen to experts who spent years in this area. Common sense does not apply to complex evolving problems. Data, analysis and expertise are the way to go.

    It really cheeses me off when the Irish media put people on shows who have no expertise or experience in treating viruses. Their recommendations have no more validity than anyone picked on the street.


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    #9476
    RandomName2
    Registered Users Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    Do we know the health status of all those who have been confirmed yet?

    Are they all doing ok?

    No recoveries, no deaths. I think that's all that's been said.


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    #9477
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Its very simple to just give us enough to live on, freeze all utility bills mortgages etc , give us free electricity, without us having to pay any units between the free time and when the free electricity is up.

    If we don't starve and have warmth and foid, basic access to medicate etc

    Im sure we'll come out of this.

    WE BAILED OUT THE BANKS AND THE SYSTEM
    NOW ITS OUR TURN TO GET OUR PERCENTAGE OF OUR EXTRA TAXES AND TARRIFS BACK


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    #9478
    DrumSteve
    Registered Users Posts: 10,799 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    Quite interesting:

    https://fortune.com/2020/03/10/gilead-coronavirus-treatment-remdesivir-being-used-washington-cdc/
    Gilead's experimental drug remdesivir has been touted by public health officials at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) as one of the most—if not the most—promising antivirals to fight the new coronavirus strain.

    CDC director Robert Redfield added to the buzz on Tuesday, stating that that Gilead's pathogen-fighting COVID-19 treatment is already being deployed in Washington state, where the virus had claimed nearly two dozen lives as of Monday.

    Redfield, during Congressional testimony before a House of Representatives committee regarding the CDC's budget and spending priorities in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, said that "remdesivir is available right now on compassionate use," in Washington. Preliminary results for the treatment's effectiveness will likely become clearer in mere months, according to Redfield.

    Compassionate use is an analogue of the Food and Drug Administration's expanded access program, which speeds up access to treatments that haven't received marketing approval to patients who may direly need them—especially in emergency situations.

    That could include a patient who has "a serious disease or condition, or whose life is immediately threatened by their disease or condition," according to the FDA. It appears that coronavirus cases, at least in hard-hit regions, clear that standard.

    But Gilead's therapy has rapidly progressed through the clinical trial process in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. It's already being used in human clinical trials in the U.S. on top of later-stage studies in other nations that are being affected by coronavirus.

    Washington's public health department and Gilead have not yet responded to Fortune's multiple requests for comment about how remdesivir is being used in the state.

    I'm presuming this thing will be the go to help people recover; seems to be quite good at getting rid of the virus.

    Just in relation to the vaccine; most teams working on it seem to be targeting the "spike" the virus uses to embed itself in the body; so regardless of how it mutates, the vaccine will target how it gets into the body instead.


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    #9479
    all about the mane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    RandomName2 wrote: »
    Obviously they don't have the same **** there going on about 'hysterical scare mongering' or politicians who say 'resign yourself to this being a pandemic'

    Why not move there?


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    #9480
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Graces7 wrote: »
    I wish! Afraid a tent would take off.... Like I nearly do many days

    But yes: I feel like an observer in all this. I live in permanent isolation as I am immunesuppressed and am under strict orders to see NO ONE. There is no way the bug can catch me

    A thought though; if any there have holiday homes in rural places and you can, move there for a while?

    Stay as safe as you can out there

    I thought about this last night. I have been on the islands off the West coast before. I wondered would if make any sense to rent on Tory for a year.


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    #9481
    DrumSteve
    Registered Users Posts: 10,799 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    RandomName2 wrote: »
    No recoveries, no deaths. I think that's all that's been said.

    I would note, no - one is confirmed to have recovered until the virus has left their body in full (I think it's 2 days of negative tests)


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