Off Topic Thread 4.0

errlloyd · 10-03-2020 04:11PM

I am going through a mortgage application right now.

Any of you have any thoughts on how all of this might impact housing and whether there is a strategy to get the best out of it?

Mortgage interest rates are at all time lows, but the market might be about to go all over the place between the election and the economy.

Squidgy Black · 10-03-2020 04:18PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised Cheltenham has gone ahead. 15000 were due to travel, I gather a lot less have.

My auld lad went over despite my ma telling him he was nuts. Apparently still a fair few gone over. Was convinced it was going to be called off, especially considering there was three cases in Gloucestershire alone.

10-03-2020 04:27PM

errlloyd wrote: »

I am going through a mortgage application right now.

Any of you have any thoughts on how all of this might impact housing and whether there is a strategy to get the best out of it?

Mortgage interest rates are at all time lows, but the market might be about to go all over the place between the election and the economy.

Hard to know - are you applying to see what your borrowing capacity is or do you have a property in mind?

The 2008 crash had a huge impact on property prices and whilst there were increased lending restrictions it was still a far better climate to buy in post crash.

Personally I'd wait this out before doing anything as significant as purchasing a home.

awec · 10-03-2020 04:30PM

If you're only applying for a mortgage now it'll be many months before you realistically buy something anyway.

If you're in a secure enough job, and you're looking at houses you plan on living in for a long time (none of this starter home stuff), then I'd proceed tbh.

errlloyd · 10-03-2020 04:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Hard to know - are you applying to see what your borrowing capacity is or do you have a property in mind?

The 2008 crash had a huge impact on property prices and whilst there were increased lending restrictions it was still a far better climate to buy in post crash.

Personally I'd wait this out before doing anything as significant as purchasing a home.

Yeah just applying to get the approval in principle. My parents ended up in negative equity in the 80s and my brother in law got badly stung by buying in Roscommon in 2008. So plenty of lessons of the financial precariousness of property.

But also curious as to whether the system can be gamed. Should I lock in approval in principle right now while the rates are amazing, but hold off buying until it has expired in the hopes prices drop... For example.

awec · 10-03-2020 04:38PM

errlloyd wrote: »

Yeah just applying to get the approval in principle. My parents ended up in negative equity in the 80s and my brother in law got badly stung by buying in Roscommon in 2008. So plenty of lessons of the financial precariousness of property.

But also curious as to whether the system can be gamed. Should I lock in approval in principle right now while the rates are amazing, but hold off buying until it has expired in the hopes prices drop... For example.

Approval in Principle doesn't lock in rates.

sydthebeat · 10-03-2020 04:42PM

errlloyd wrote: »

Yeah just applying to get the approval in principle. My parents ended up in negative equity in the 80s and my brother in law got badly stung by buying in Roscommon in 2008. So plenty of lessons of the financial precariousness of property.

But also curious as to whether the system can be gamed. Should I lock in approval in principle right now while the rates are amazing, but hold off buying until it has expired in the hopes prices drop... For example.

youre approval will not last forever.. usually 6 months
so that doesn't give you much leeway to wait to buy.

the conveyancing procedure is slow enough anyway. i know people who have had to go back again for approval a second due to the length of time the actual sales process took.

errlloyd · 10-03-2020 04:49PM

Fair enough!

Continue on as normal for now so.

steves2 · 10-03-2020 06:01PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised Cheltenham has gone ahead. 15000 were due to travel, I gather a lot less have.

Was a bonkers decision to let it go ahead

Stheno · 10-03-2020 06:04PM

steves2 wrote: »

Was a bonkers decision to let it go ahead

Watching it on tv the size of the crowds was insane

swiwi_ · 10-03-2020 07:31PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised Cheltenham has gone ahead. 15000 were due to travel, I gather a lot less have.

They died Venjur and couldn’t make it.

#yourapocalyptyictheoriesarecorrect

Zzippy · 10-03-2020 09:44PM

This is bloody terrifying. Less than 3 weeks ago Italy had similar no. of cases as we now have. Read this thread from an Italian hospital doctor.

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=07

Burkie1203 · 10-03-2020 09:48PM

Seems a good few England players attended including Jamie George. Seems a daft idea

Neil3030 · 10-03-2020 10:09PM

Zzippy wrote: »

This is bloody terrifying. Less than 3 weeks ago Italy had similar no. of cases as we now have. Read this thread from an Italian hospital doctor.

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=07

When Italy had in and around our number of cases (34), cases were increasing much faster than the are currently in Ireland.

Feb 21: 20
Feb 22: 79
Feb 23: 150

Hospitals in badly affected regions are indeed getting rammed right now, and very difficult cost/benefit decisions are being made.

But Ireland is not there yet, and we can still hold this one down if we're smart.

Squidgy Black · 10-03-2020 10:42PM

Italy had a mental infection rate, and currently having a similar mortality rate.

I think the comparisons will stop fairly soon as we start to see the numbers continuously published by the HSE (whether these are accurate in terms of testing etc is a different scenario), but I think if you look at other countries, like France, England, Spain etc, the spread is nowhere near the same pandemic levels of Italy yet it's always the one trotted out.

Don't get me wrong I think the government does need to step things up and start to implement measures geared more towards the delay phase rather than containment, but I would honestly be surprised if we come close to Italy levels, mostly due to population median age difference and also on a cultural level.

prawnsambo · 10-03-2020 11:27PM

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Italy had a mental infection rate, and currently having a similar mortality rate.

I think the comparisons will stop fairly soon as we start to see the numbers continuously published by the HSE (whether these are accurate in terms of testing etc is a different scenario), but I think if you look at other countries, like France, England, Spain etc, the spread is nowhere near the same pandemic levels of Italy yet it's always the one trotted out.

Don't get me wrong I think the government does need to step things up and start to implement measures geared more towards the delay phase rather than containment, but I would honestly be surprised if we come close to Italy levels, mostly due to population median age difference and also on a cultural level.

Italy had quite unique problems. Firstly a lot of travel between Northern Italy and China due to the large textile industry. Secondly, they were slow identifying patients. There was one case who didn;t get diagnose until his third visit to the hospital in five days. And they were only asking if people had been to China instead of checking contacts with people who had been to China. So the exponential growth was due in large part to it going unchecked for a considerable length of time.

Zzippy · 10-03-2020 11:42PM

I love your optimism lads, and I hope you're proved right. Unfortunately I think that optimism is misplaced. We have virtually zero spare capacity in our hospital system, especially in intensive care. Even if we don't get the numbers Italy has, our health service cannot cope with that kind of demand.

prawnsambo · 10-03-2020 11:47PM

Zzippy wrote: »

I love your optimism lads, and I hope you're proved right. Unfortunately I think that optimism is misplaced. We have virtually zero spare capacity in our hospital system, especially in intensive care. Even if we don't get the numbers Italy has, our health service cannot cope with that kind of demand.

Well aware. And what's more shocking is that we have more per head of population than the UK. In Italy they re-tasked operating theatres as ICUs. We would probably have to do the same.

Stheno · 10-03-2020 11:59PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well aware. And what's more shocking is that we have more per head of population than the UK. In Italy they re-tasked operating theatres as ICUs. We would probably have to do the same.

We are already reopening unused facilities

Also companies like the one I work in and others have strict protocols in place requiring self isolation if you so much as have a sniffles

Ten people I know of are undergoing that that's 30 less cases

prawnsambo · 11-03-2020 12:07AM

First case confirmed at Cheltenham. They should close it now.

sydthebeat · 11-03-2020 12:13AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

First case confirmed at Cheltenham. They should close it now.

Cheltenham had a confirmed case days ago

prawnsambo · 11-03-2020 12:20AM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Cheltenham had a confirmed case days ago

Yesterday is what I saw.

sydthebeat · 11-03-2020 12:22AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yesterday is what I saw.

March 8th.

Two days ago but that's just splitting hairs

Zzippy · 11-03-2020 10:58AM

Stheno wrote: »

We are already reopening unused facilities

Who's going to staff them???

11-03-2020 11:24AM

Zzippy wrote: »

Who's going to staff them???

Whoever is least sick...

I would hope our lower population density, the fact that we're an Island and the advance warning of just how bad this is (Italy) will help our infection curve look more like South Korea than Milan.

We're a pretty compliant population, we dealt with 2008 financial crises better than most countries and our reaction to foot and mouth was pretty thorough.

This government despite recent polling has managed a crises reasonably well before and I take some solace in the current Taoiseach being a doctor.

I'm happy with how we've reacted so far, we can't burn the economy and shut everything down as paying for the level of care the population is going to need isn't free and we have to take a medium to long term view of recovery whilst dealing with the immediate crises. In addition to that closing schools has a knock on effect of impacting healthcare workers and nurses in particular.

I'm not an expert, I don't know if we could be doing more but I'm hopeful we've done just enough to stave off the worst.

If what is happening in Italy is replicated world wide it's going to be a very bad year however. America in particular looks like it's headed for a complete catastrophe and with the underlying political tension it could get quite ugly.

dregin · 11-03-2020 11:34AM

Stheno wrote: »

We are already reopening unused facilities

Also companies like the one I work in and others have strict protocols in place requiring self isolation if you so much as have a sniffles

Ten people I know of are undergoing that that's 30 less cases

We've closed all of our offices worldwide. Thought it was a tad over the top a few days ago, now pretty thankful.

prawnsambo · 11-03-2020 11:36AM

Zzippy wrote: »

Who's going to staff them???

By cancelling elective surgeries, you free up staff and beds.

prawnsambo · 11-03-2020 11:38AM

Not sure if people heard this, but Nadine Dorries; junior health minister has tested positive. But what's worse is the stupid woman went to a reception in 10 Downing street while symptomatic and then held a clinic the following day. Before eventually seeking medical help and getting tested.

Squidgy Black · 11-03-2020 11:51AM

I'll tell you one thing, I genuinely don't think I've ever touched my face as often without even thinking about it since they told us not to do it. Almost like it's constantly itchy.

dregin · 11-03-2020 12:16PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not sure if people heard this, but Nadine Dorries; junior health minister has tested positive. But what's worse is the stupid woman went to a reception in 10 Downing street while symptomatic and then held a clinic the following day. Before eventually seeking medical help and getting tested.

something something taking it on the chin...

Off Topic Thread 4.0

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