Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

This seems hopelessly inadequate

Strazdas wrote: »

My point is that the response should be measured in correlation to risk. I've no issue at all with the parades being cancelled if that is what the HSE decide, ditto if schools are closed soon.

The Govt here cannot just move straight to nationwide lockdown today without even being able to quantify the risk to the country.

The problem here is that the risk can only be modeled on other affected countries, many of which were in the same state Ireland was a few weeks ago, whose health systems are now bowing under the pressure of new cases and for whom there is no option other than shutdown.

The "worst" case scenario (in terms of it being a false alarm) is that the country gets locked down and delay protocols put in place, the economy takes a big hit and things get screwy for a while, and the virus never properly takes off. And in a few weeks we realise it hadn't spread much farther after all, and things go into recovery mode.

If it's not a false alarm, then we're running out of time before we get all of those effects *plus* a deadly virus running rampant through the country making critical care for people with other ailments impossible and slowing the economy even more with sickness absence. Not to mention that the likelihood of overwhelming the healthcare system becomes exponentially greater and likely to last much longer, with greater fallout in terms of knock-on effect for non-covid illnesses.

In this scenario, where risk cannot be assessed other than through modeling from other affected countries, it seems more prudent to go with the "just in case" measures insofar as possible.

I was okay with being laughed at for "stocking up" a bit at the end of January after watching this for a few weeks, and I'm okay with being laughed at for recommending an abundance of caution when it's all over. I sincerely hope that will be the case. But if it's not, it's already too late for containment and all efforts should be made to reduce the number of people who are sick at any given time and thereby increase the health system's ability to cope.

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I'm not saying that but what use was that to the Italians???

Also we need to listen to epidemiologists and statisticians. Funny enough they aren't too happy with the lack of preparation. Or how about the WHO basically screaming at western countries to react for the past few weeks?

The evidence on the ground in Italy paints a harrowing picture, maybe pay attention to that and not the UK who are yet to realise the train wreck that is about to ensue.

Today's figures from the UK don't appear to be showing any exponential growth in numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

No doubt you are able to hear that train wreck approaching though anyway.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So we've heard of a case in Naas, Cork (Apple) and two others (anecdotally on here) who returned from skiing.

That's 4 already today. Not looking good.

In fairness there has been a case in Naas in the thread for the last 3 days (until it confirmed its conjecture)

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Just look at what is happening in the other countries who were infected before we were !!!

But that would still be consistent with what Strazdas point. I would assume (and certainly hope) that in conducting, and updating, the risk assessment they would be including evidence from what is happening in other countries.

Strazdas wrote: »

My point is that the response should be measured in correlation to risk. I've no issue at all with the parades being cancelled if that is what the HSE decide, ditto if schools are closed soon.

The Govt here cannot just move straight to nationwide lockdown today without even being able to quantify the risk to the country.

I took from the UK assessment yesterday that they expect the outbreak to spread and to be major there in any event. Therefore, according to them, any restrictions introduced now will have to stay for a long time. Their rationale was that the restrictions to come will be so severe (they didn't specify) that people would not be able to tolerate them (or authority enforce them) for a prolonged period. Therefore, better to stagger them in and wait until each would be maximally effective - and can be maintained.



This was much less explicit in any of the presentations I have seen in Ireland (I have missed some), but I think they are implicit.

WAZZA1989 wrote: »

I have also been told 13 patients in Mater not 2 again I cannot name the source but I can assure you it is reliable

This is incorrect. Individuals are being admitted to get tested so as to bypass ED. The majority do not have COVID19.

There's a lot of misinformation on this thread re: infection numbers (Not forgetting those 3 cases in Drogheda US2 claimed have been confirmed positive since Friday yet no appearance in national tally thus far). Unless a person's source is a member of the ID team in that hospital then they are not reliable.

The HSE numbers accurately reflect the number of confirmed cases among those who have been tested so would recommend people go by their tally rather than their own sources.

Well there goes that rumour:

https://twitter.com/ThomasByrneTD/status/1237394636680753154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1237394636680753154&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thejournal.ie%2Fcoronavirus-liveblog-5040048-Mar2020%2F

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

That is fascinating, id love to see hear some theories why that might be

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Well there goes that rumour:

https://twitter.com/ThomasByrneTD/status/1237394636680753154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1237394636680753154&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thejournal.ie%2Fcoronavirus-liveblog-5040048-Mar2020%2F

2 days ago "Officially" Paddys Day was going ahead.

WAZZA1989 wrote: »

I honestly do not want to panic anyone, and I am certainly not scaremongering,this is a scary situation!
This is reliable information I have been given and I believe is important to share

Thanks...but we'll wait for RTÉ. If we were to believe every post in here the last few weeks that claimed to have reliable info about confirmed cases Ireland would be the most infected country after china