Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

odyssey06 · 08-03-2020 02:57PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Who is that guy?
30k flu deaths in Ireland per year!!!
The US has approx 8k deaths

We presume he was referring to the average annual of 30000 deaths in total in Ireland from all causes, not flu.

sonofenoch · 08-03-2020 02:58PM

The day we have an airborne pandemic I'll buy into all the hype......for now this is what it is like most everything else, to get it will be unlucky to get it and die from it extremely unlucky .....most of us will die in all manor of ways, and most of em will be unlucky

rossie1977 · 08-03-2020 02:58PM

niallo27 wrote: »

If half of the population get it that still means 98% or so of fit and able people will be completely fine and cope with whatever needs to be done.

If half the population gets it 15-20% would need hospital treatment so as many as half a million of which 75,000 would die.

That's if we had the capability to deal with half a million needing emergency treatment. There are 250 icu beds in this country.

If half, a third, even 1/10th the country was infected Ireland would cease to be a viable democratic nation. There would be utter chaos.

Darc19 · 08-03-2020 02:58PM

That hysterical SBP tabloid article is technically correct.

Same as I could say that there could be 250,000 car accidents tomorrow.

Technically there could be.

Shame on SBP for their fall to tabloid standards - they have had other hysterical headlines recently

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 08-03-2020 02:58PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

Sometimes I feel so blessed by the proactivity of the HSE, the opening up of new ICU to deal with a potential outbreak, the steady stream of detailed information provided to the media, and the coordinated response by EU officials. Those occasions I'm usually a little high though in fairness.

Well, some Irish hospitals restricted visitors and called of elective surgeries during the week. Very sensible. And yet, some people even kvetched about that. It’s almost like they just want to give out about the HSE, no matter what.

What kind of details are you looking for?

TimeToShine · 08-03-2020 02:59PM

Amazed that Cheltenham is going ahead, a lot of Irish usually go and I would consider it a veritable meat market for transmission.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 08-03-2020 02:59PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

F**k me that is devastating.:(

Probably become our new normal for a while, very sad and seems inhumane but you can see the reasons behind it if they are stretched to the limit. Tough decisions but heartbreaking for those who will lose their lives because of it.

Bob24 · 08-03-2020 02:59PM

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

That's what I read from it anyway. Seems to be calling for prioritisation, so if your chances of survival are less than someone else then you won't get ICU care.

The videos of China building temporary basic hospitals in a week now come to mind. Question is can Italy do it?

is_that_so · 08-03-2020 02:59PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Paul Reid couldn't run a county council properly never mind the HSE

He actually did a good job with Fingal, which is why they chose him for the HSE.

08-03-2020 03:00PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Am I reading here that Italy is now deliberately choosing not to provide necessary care to some people, due to the health system being already passed saturation point?

If confirmed that’s not exactly good news :-/

If numbers get high it is inevitable that ICU will be prioroitised to those likely to recover. This is always the case but it will magnify in the event of a major outbreak.

Blueshoe · 08-03-2020 03:00PM

wakka12 wrote: »

It won't just be Ireland , enormous economic impact globally is inevitable

Of course. A complete domino effect. What is the price of gold nowadays?

https://www.bullionbypost.ie/gold-price/one-year-gold-price

KWAG2019 · 08-03-2020 03:00PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

F**k me that is devastating.:(

Scarce resources going where they might do some good. This is Western Europe 2020.

niallo27 · 08-03-2020 03:00PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Actually it doesn’t because another 13% may need hospital care.

If 2% of half the population dies (40,000 people in the next few months!), there will be few families not affected on some level. There are so many knock on variables that are going to do so much damage. It’s like sayin “if we had only 15% unemployment” at least most people will be working....

People see statistics being thrown about and really don’t consider what those statistics will look like if they play our here.

Yes but that 13% will hopefully recover, if this virus affected the younger and able people it would be disastrous. I'm responding to people comparing it to the end of the world.

pc7 · 08-03-2020 03:01PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236508490488741889

The poor staff in those positions, it’s really unthinkable for them I’m sure.

wadacrack · 08-03-2020 03:01PM

Data/ analysis on Wuhan containment strategies

https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1236075174069440512

Key point for me:

https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1236075902263582721

An RO below 1 means that a disease can be contained. Explains why the World Health Org haven't labelled it a pandemic. Economic greed means no European country is doing this quick enough

Kermit.de.frog · 08-03-2020 03:02PM

From RTE live blog

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has said it is only a matter of time until more European countries adopt the kind of aggressive steps that Italy is taking to combat the spread of the virus.

Blueshoe · 08-03-2020 03:02PM

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Probably become our new normal for a while, very sad and seems inhumane but you can see the reasons behind it if they are stretched to the limit. Tough decisions but heartbreaking for those who will lose their lives because of it.

Imagine that scenario in Ireland. Not worth thinking about. Years of piss poor management and efficiency could come home to roost

Bob24 · 08-03-2020 03:02PM

1641 wrote: »

If numbers get high it is inevitable that ICU will be prioroitised to those likely to recover. This is always the case but it will magnify in the event of a major outbreak.

Thing is ... I think they are far from the peak of this outbreak. So if it is already breaking up now ...

daheff · 08-03-2020 03:02PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Not much evidence the virus is being spread at one off outdoor events. Everyone who returned to Ireland with the virus doesn't seem to have attended a mass gathering event in northern Italy.

There are already 2 such incident s having happened

South Korea had a mass religious cult meeting which spread the virus there.
Iran had a religious shrine mass which also spread infection in Iran.

Both countries have extremely high number of confirmed infections

KWAG2019 · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

1641 wrote: »

If numbers get high it is inevitable that ICU will be prioroitised to those likely to recover. This is always the case but it will magnify in the event of a major outbreak.

Are there statistics of this happening in Ireland on an annual basis? If a doctor has to make such a decision is there referral to an ethics committee first? What reporting protocols exist for such an event?

US2 · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

TimeToShine wrote: »

Amazed that Cheltenham is going ahead, a lot of Irish usually go and I would consider it a veritable meat market for transmission.

Theres 100k people gathered in Manchester and liverpool today for football match, not a word about it but I see Cheltenham mentioned every second page

the butcher · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Has there been any research on whether and temperatures? How do we know the warm weather may not help it thrive ?

It's droplet infection so when the air is humid and warm, the droplets fall to the ground more quickly, and it makes transmission harder. That's a hope to beat it back and slow the spread.

It's not unreasonable to make the assumption" that cases will die down come spring, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NPR. "We hope when the weather gets warmer it will diminish a bit," he says.

“I hope it will show seasonality, but it’s hard to know,” says Stuart Weston, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, where the virus is being actively studied.

David Heymann from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine says not enough is known about this new virus to predict how it will change with different weather conditions.

“The risk of making predictions without an evidence base is that they could, if they prove to be wrong, be taken as verity and give a false security,” Heymann says via email.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Sigh.. they can't argue with it because they are solid projections based on infection rates we are seeing. What numbers of "their own" do they need?!

They need to see the people dying in front of their very eyes.

To all the people bickering over the 30,000 flu deaths figure, McConkey was saying that usually the amount of people who die per year in Ireland overall (not just from flu) is 30,000. If the projected figures are allowed to play out, it will be 80-100,000.

I was writing as quickly as it was being said on the radio so apologies if it could be misconstrued.

They're talking about sick pay now. As a precursor to speaking to the guest, the presenter said something along the lines of "people need to work to get wages, the government needs people working because of the taxation they get from that". Thanks captain obvious. The guest said. We spend €700m a year on illness benefit and a lot of it is returned through income tax so if we can just curb the spread by discouraging people from coming to work by paying them from day one of their illness. Just attitudinally, people aren't taking this seriously at all - it's going to take a complete paradigm shift for people's behaviour to change. It's coming though.

PaybackPayroll · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

sonofenoch wrote: »

The day we have an airborne pandemic I'll buy into all the hype......for now this is what it is like most everything else, to get it will be unlucky to get it and die from it extremely unlucky .....most of us will die in all manor of ways, and most of em will be unlucky

What is an 'airborne pandemic'?

I believe C19 can be spread via sneezes, like a cold can be.

pjohnson · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Probably become our new normal for a while, very sad and seems inhumane but you can see the reasons behind it if they are stretched to the limit. Tough decisions but heartbreaking for those who will lose their lives because of it.

Here it will probably go to who ever can buy a bed rather than needs it.

niallo27 · 08-03-2020 03:03PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

If half the population gets it 15-20% would need hospital treatment so as many as half a million of which 75,000 would die.

That's if we had the capability to deal with half a million needing emergency treatment. There are 250 icu beds in this country.

If half, a third, even 1/10th the country was infected Ireland would cease to be a viable democratic nation. There would be utter chaos.

I'd check your maths again there.

MadYaker · 08-03-2020 03:04PM

What does the lock down in Italy actually involve? From reading the italian subreddit it seems that people can still move around freely, airports and bus stations are still open etc

Harry Palmr · 08-03-2020 03:04PM

TimeToShine wrote: »

Amazed that Cheltenham is going ahead, a lot of Irish usually go and I would consider it a veritable meat market for transmission.

Foot and mouth stopped it cos horses are worth far more than humans! In truth I think they'll pull it if the spread continues at it's current rate. On the other hand it's largely outdoors - I suspect punters would be more likely to catch the virus from sharing trains, planes, automobiles and ferries.

08-03-2020 03:05PM

KWAG2019 wrote: »

Are there statistics of this happening in Ireland on an annual basis? If a doctor has to make such a decision is there referral to an ethics committee first? What reporting protocols exist for such an event?

It's the whole point of triage. If you feel patient isn't going to survive. There would be no reason to get them to ICU. For example, after the Manchester bombing, people were triaged at the site to see who would be brought to the hospital.

statesaver · 08-03-2020 03:05PM

Was there any truth to the stories of people being reinfected with the virus or was it bs ?

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP