Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

Exclamation Marc · 08-03-2020 02:50PM

Sometimes I feel so blessed that this thread has given me non-stop access to medical professionals, qualified statisticians and HSE whistleblowers.

odyssey06 · 08-03-2020 02:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

And being on a bus, a train, the LUAS, the DART, in a crowded pub every day of the week? The parade is a two hour event.

Same people though, by and large on the same daily commute...

Not a once off mass mixing of visitors from all over Ireland the globe with zero possibility of contact tracing.

Strazdas · 08-03-2020 02:50PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

20,000 infections would completely shutdown the country. Remember they only had 80,000 or so confirmed cases in the whole of China. Even if all the cases occurred in Hubei which has 12 times Irelands population, 20,000 would be three times as many infections as Hubei.

Talk of a million infections in Ireland and this country is back in the dark ages.

Personally I think those numbers are insane : only 100k on the entire planet have Covid and these guys are talking about 2m Irish people having the virus soon.

is_that_so · 08-03-2020 02:50PM

Lucy8080 wrote: »

In the U.K. Tesco ,Asda and Morrisons are to start implementing rationing on some food and household items like pasta ,dried milk , sanitizers and childrens medicines ,to name but a few.

Not a gap to be seen on Lidl shelves this morning although I can't speak for sanitiser as it's never on the list.

Popoutman · 08-03-2020 02:51PM

I'm now going to relax for the afternoon, with a nice long relaxing showing of the 1994 Stephen King classic "The Stand".
Such a great book.

Hopefully it'll not be prophetic! "Captain Trips" being the name of that particular bug..

I've seen Reddit references to Covid-19 being colloquially named "Boomer Flu" given just how much more it affects the older generations.

givyjoe · 08-03-2020 02:51PM

noodler wrote: »

Ok???

It was their worst case scenario so they can't argue with it?

But it's a worst case baseline. Close nothing, do nothing, any scenario after that is better.

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying. My overall point is that it must be the HSE's figure...just not the likely one.

My point was fairly simple, if they had reason to believe that figure was wrong, they would have said as much and detailed the reasons why they disagreed with it. It would be fairly irresponsible of them to simply shrug their shoulders with such a huge number of they didn't believe it.

ChikiChiki · 08-03-2020 02:51PM

Strazdas wrote: »

He did add he thinks the St Patricks Festival should go ahead : he says he thinks outdoor events pose much less of a risk and indoor venues like the 3 Arena are far more problematic.

He is obviously being directed to tow the temporary Govt line. The same as Dr Holohan.

If they came out and stated. "This is going to be bad and there is no getting away from it so we might as well have the parade to inject much needed cash into the economy".

I would have alot more respect for that message and honesty. Its high risk if there is a chance of any one person gets infected. The whitewashing is ridiculous.

RandomName2 · 08-03-2020 02:52PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I think the panic was inevitable, just by it being out in the world. There is that quote about smart people changing their minds when the data changes. I don't see a state of panic as being conducive to coping with very much, so you take precautions and yes you get on with your life. It's what the vast majority are doing. If circumstances change or require official change we will deal with it. It's called resilience.

Policy had to be taken from a top-down point of view. A wall is only as strong as its weakest point. Panic or the absence of panic among the public changes nothing of significance.

wheresthebeef · 08-03-2020 02:52PM

Gods Gift wrote: »

Fookers puffing away on their vaps outside pubs and cafes. Polluting half the street here.

Would that transmit the virus??

Actually Propylene Glycol used in e-liquid has been shown to kill viruses and bacteria. The vapers will survive the apocalypse.

Bob24 · 08-03-2020 02:52PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236508490488741889

Am I reading here that Italy is now deliberately choosing not to provide necessary care to some people, due to the health system being already passed saturation point?

If confirmed that’s not exactly good news :-/

gabeeg · 08-03-2020 02:52PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Personally I think those numbers are insane : only 100k on the entire planet have Covid and these guys are talking about 2m Irish people having the virus soon.

That's known cases not actual cases, and there could be one million infected in the likes of Iran already

wakka12 · 08-03-2020 02:52PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

Pie in sky figure.
But if 1.9 million people had the virus this country will economically collapse and there will be no coming back from it .

It won't just be Ireland , enormous economic impact globally is inevitable

Strazdas · 08-03-2020 02:53PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Same people though, by and large on the same daily commute...

Not a once off mass mixing of visitors from all over Ireland the globe with zero possibility of contact tracing.

Not much evidence the virus is being spread at one off outdoor events. Everyone who returned to Ireland with the virus doesn't seem to have attended a mass gathering event in northern Italy.

noodler · 08-03-2020 02:53PM

givyjoe wrote: »

My point was fairly simple, if they had reason to believe that figure was wrong, they would have said as much and detailed the reasons why they disagreed with it. It would be fairly irresponsible of them to simply shrug their shoulders with such a huge number of they didn't believe it.

Have you read the SBP article?

If they've told Government circles it's their worst case (before it was leaked to the media Today) then no, they can't deny it.

Runaways · 08-03-2020 02:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not a gap to be seen on Lidl shelves this morning although I can't speak for sanitiser as it's never on the list.

Freezers were totally empty in the lidl down the street from me last night. That said we have 3 humongous student apartment blocks right beside us all populated by foreign students.

Lucy8080 · 08-03-2020 02:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not a gap to be seen on Lidl shelves this morning although I can't speak for sanitiser as it's never on the list.

It is a self imposed rationing system ,rather than Gov. imposed. They say there is plenty of supplies/re-supplies to go around. It is just to stop panic buying/greed..

niallo27 · 08-03-2020 02:53PM

If half of the population get it that still means 98% or so of fit and able people will be completely fine and cope with whatever needs to be done.

08-03-2020 02:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Personally I think those numbers are insane : only 100k on the entire planet have Covid and these guys are talking about 2m Irish people having the virus soon.

Maybe he has been following the thread?

RandomName2 · 08-03-2020 02:54PM

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Sometimes I feel so blessed that this thread has given me non-stop access to medical professionals, qualified statisticians and HSE whistleblowers.

Sometimes I feel so blessed by the proactivity of the HSE, the opening up of new ICU to deal with a potential outbreak, the steady stream of detailed information provided to the media, and the coordinated response by EU officials. Those occasions I'm usually a little high though in fairness.

delly · 08-03-2020 02:54PM

People quoting standard flu deaths have to remember that there is a flu vaccine. Vulnerable people get it every year, so the number of deaths is despite this being in place. Without a vaccine the rate would be much, much higher.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 08-03-2020 02:55PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Am I reading here that Italy is now choosing not to provide necessary care to some people due to the system being already passed saturation??

That's what I read from it anyway. Seems to be calling for prioritisation, so if your chances of survival are less than someone else then you won't get ICU care.

jam_mac_jam · 08-03-2020 02:55PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Am I reading here that Italy is now deliberately choosing not to provide necessary care to some people, due to the health system being already passed saturation point?

If confirmed that’s not exactly good news :-/

Jesus. Poor people

MadYaker · 08-03-2020 02:55PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Sigh.. they can't argue with it because they are solid projections based on infection rates we are seeing. What numbers of "their own" do they need?!

Actually the article is here. https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120943-covid-19/

The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.

But it said that the modelling scenario is not completed yet.

Health officials said that the trends in Italy point towards large numbers of cases.

As first revealed by the Business Post, senior health officials believe up to 1.9 million people in Ireland could be infected and become sick.

So first the say worst case scenario is 1.9 million infected but then they say the modelling isn't completed? I would like to see the modelling. The Chinese were slow to respond and they have 80,000 cases. How could we end up with 1.9 million in Ireland alone? We've been quick to respond. Anyone have an insight into how this type of modelling works?

Popoutman · 08-03-2020 02:55PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Personally I think those numbers are insane : only 100k on the entire planet have Covid and these guys are talking about 2m Irish people having the virus soon.

Personally I think you might do well to look at how exponents work, as it might help you realise you need to prepare and plan.

The predictions are perfectly valid, and are holding up week on week at the moment, and look as though they will for the next few weeks at least. On the John Hopkins website dashboard here check the graphs in the bottom right, go to the second tab (Logarithmic). See the yellow line being effectively a straight line? That's indicative of the spread being exponential. There's absolutely no reason to think that the slope of that line will change in the near future.

Sir Oxman · 08-03-2020 02:56PM

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I had predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario... (based off what the trajectory was two weeks ago)
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

WHO official Tarik Jasarevic on now saying that those who get sick need to be detected, tested and provided with medical care. Doesn't seem in conjunction with the HSE sending contracts of CUH confirmed case back to work. Saying we need the government to work towards this. I wonder if he knows about the current political situation here.

Who is that guy?
30k flu deaths in Ireland per year!!!
The US has approx 8k deaths

odyssey06 · 08-03-2020 02:56PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Not much evidence the virus is being spread at one off outdoor events. Everyone who returned to Ireland with the virus doesn't seem to have attended a mass gathering event in northern Italy.

They were on skiing trips. The one doesn't disprove the other.

wadacrack · 08-03-2020 02:56PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Personally I think those numbers are insane : only 100k on the entire planet have Covid and these guys are talking about 2m Irish people having the virus soon.

It was 20 cases in China about 7 weeks ago. This grows exponentially, once the virus is at high numbers it can get literally double in 6 days or if measures are not taken. Its why is so important to limit spread as early as possible.

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

ChikiChiki · 08-03-2020 02:56PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236508490488741889

F**k me that is devastating.:(

Drumpot · 08-03-2020 02:57PM

niallo27 wrote: »

If half of the population get it that still means 98% or so of fit and able people will be completely fine and cope with whatever needs to be done.

Actually it doesn’t because another 13% may need hospital care.

If 2% of half the population dies (40,000 people in the next few months!), there will be few families not affected on some level. There are so many knock on variables that are going to do so much damage. It’s like sayin “if we had only 15% unemployment” at least most people will be working....

People see statistics being thrown about and really don’t consider what those statistics will look like if they play our here.

is_that_so · 08-03-2020 02:57PM

delly wrote: »

People quoting standard flu deaths have to remember that there is a flu vaccine. Vulnerable people get it every year, so the number of deaths is despite this being in place. Without a vaccine the rate would be much, much higher.

And that is at the root of the COVID-19 concerns, we still know little about it and don't have a vaccine yet.

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP