Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

caveat emptor wrote: »

Stop misinforming people. Yes there are more cured at this stage then there are in intensive care. However there are approx 2K in hospital now. In Lombardia there are 244 people in intensive care right now. There are 364 recovering at home.

That's 2K in hospital 364 at home. Wonder how many are mild.

We can all use percentages / comparisons to make something sound different.
Here's a good one.

Of the 1777 people who have the disease currently in Lombary 79% are in hospital

Don't take my word for it. Get out the all calculator.




http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/documents/20182/1221364/Dati+Riepilogo+Nazionale+5marzo2020/a529828b-0bf0-4d5b-ad66-4669d3635a24

Hang on, how did you work that out? My interpretation of that is 244 are in ICU, 1169 are recovered and 364 are isolated at home. Giving a total of 1777 positive cases. So 13% are in hospital...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/irish-national-suspected-to-have-coronavirus-flees-from-odisha-hospital/story-85Kdh8TwfBkN9zW9mOBkfI.html


Irish national, suspected to have coronavirus, flees from Odisha hospital

Maddox Jealous Yard wrote: »

Up until now, they just haven't been testing enough people to get those results.

My point is some posters seem to believe that the crisis in Italy and the insanity in Iran couldn't happen here.

It can.

I'm not optimistic at all on that front to be perfectly honest but they want to defend the HSE and how this country is run.

VinLieger wrote: »

We dont need quarantine if we ban flights.....

Ban flights from where? Italy, China, Korea, France, Germany, UK? It was inevitable the virus would be transferred around Europe, it is daft to shut down the entire country, we wouldn't survive that.

Deleted User wrote: »

Still not an excuse to do nothing. Yes, you can't stop people getting here, but you can make it as awkward and expensive as possible to do so, to deter the less determined.

We arent doing nothing, people with symptoms are being told to lock themselves away and we are tracing all infected cases we can. Its the only realistic thing to do, you cant seriously expect us to quarantine everyone that enters the country for a month.

silver2020 wrote: »

maybe add Nice, Munich, Geneva, Innsbruck, Salzburg, vienna, Ljubijana etc etc - all of which are in very easy reach of Northern Italy.

Then how about trains - you can get from Northern Italy to London by train in 12-14 hours including transfers and it's a very popular route.

I don't think that "heath professional" knows much about how travel goes and it typical of the scum media looking to spread fake sh1te - if you look hard enough you can find someone who will claim black is white.

Irresponsible reporting - but sure its the indo.

Not many people would go for that option. Would you?

The exponential growth in air and international travel is largely related to cheap fares.

Containment and delay means making it difficult for people to travel to and from a highly infected region.

And if they do travel and return without reporting it to authorities, they should be forcefully isolated.

Its time to stop messing around with this. The Chinese got on top of it eventually by being ruthless. Being nice won't cut it in this case.

Banning flights from Italy makes no sense anyway - they fly from anywhere else in Europe or travel to the UK.

You'd have to ban all European flights to achieve a result.

Upside Housing crisis, climate change, pensions.

spiritcrusher wrote: »

Hang on, how did you work that out? My interpretation of that is 244 are in ICU, 1169 are recovered and 364 are isolated at home. Giving a total of 1777 positive cases. So 13% are in hospital...

First column is 1169 hospitalised with symptoms. Not clear if theres overlap between these and those in ICU. Assume not.

Recoveries are green column, 376.

cherryghost wrote: »

Wut

Because of the 5000+ Italian tourists expected this weekend I heard.

banie01 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, and noting the difference between various categories of high dependency bed such as CC, and enhanced care.

How many of our ICU beds would be taken up by care post elective surgery?

I do get that post op recovery and other areas are high dependency beds and may even have ventilation available.
But
How much ICU capacity can actually be freed up by rejigging elective surgeries?

Well, and I’m cautious here because there are people looking to nitpick everything for their own agendas and less interested in facts than selective abstraction of data to fit their preconceived viewpoints, but if you imagine the following:

1. All elective cardiac surgery cancelled.

2. All elective orthopaedic surgery cancelled - a lot of those people are old and even if the surgery isn’t that invasive the might need a high dependency bed for a few days - but they won’t die without the knee/hip replacement.


3. More focus on chemo and radiotherapy for cancer patients and prolonging chemo and radiotherapy courses to “smooth out” the usage of high dependency beds. It is likely that delaying surgery for a month or more with prolonged chemo would result in fewer deaths over time than simply not having that high dependency bed available for someone with COVID19.

You can see how that would free a lot of ordinary beds and high dependency beds I’m sure.

I accept that the cancer example is on the extreme end of what would be done but:
A. Cancelling elective surgery which might require some ventilation/high dependency care would free up a lot of capacity.

B. Aggressively discharging patients earlier than we currently do - all hospitals have policies for this. Hell one Saturday I needed to make beds because we had run out and I discharged just under 20% of the in-patients under my care. Needs must when resources are tight. That frees a lot of capacity - even reducing average length of stay from 10 days to 5 with aggressive discharge policies would free up a lot of ordinary beds.

C. If this got really bad then you’d start seeing almost all elective surgery cancelled whether or not it was at high risk of needing high levels of care afterward - this would free up ordinary beds.

D. And if it got even worse then it would escalate and things like cancer surgery being delayed with longer chemo/radio courses would start to happen. And lots of other things you wouldn’t even consider. That would result in deaths but if things got to that stage it would be about making the choice which would result in fewer deaths. Hopefully it won’t get to that stage


TLDR: there is a lot of scope for reducing bed usage depending on how aggressive we need to be. Far more than you might currently imagine but at the extreme ends of that the beds will be freed at some cost in lives - but doctors make those kinds of decisions every day so if it needs be it needs be.

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-latest-Deadly-virus-in-Cork-Patient-spent-days-in-emergency-department-before-diagnosis--0608fdbd-7e91-4440-bccf-f182dd8b1d6a-ds

Not too sure if this has been posted already Cork patient spent days in A&E.

ThePopehimself wrote: »

UPDATE: Six people with coronavirus currently in isolation in University Hospital Limerick

THE NUMBER of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in University Hospital Limerick has increased to six, it was confirmed this Friday morning.

The latest two confirmed cases of the virus are linked to the original outbreak in the West of Ireland earlier this week involving a family of two adults and two children.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/523140/update-six-cases-of-coronavirus-currently-in-isolation-university-hospital-limerick.html

Are they yesterday's confirmations or new?

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Would likely discourage some casual visitors though. How many Italians are that determined to come to Ireland they'd pay extra for connecting flights? But you are right travel restrictions would need to be done on a Europe-wide basis to be seriously effective

True. Can't argue with that.