Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

pwurple

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm not optimistic at all on that front to be perfectly honest but they want to defend the HSE and how this country is run.

Not everything is a stick to beat the government with either. We're not doing too badly with 13 cases, compared with other countries anyway.

Iceland is an example. Far smaller population (~360k people), more remote, they're up at 34 cases.

Switzerland, 8 million. 120 cases, and one death.

Norway, 5 million, pretty remote... 91 cases.

Woke Hogan

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

I wouldn't never wish ill will on anyone. I hope that no one actually got infected. But if I had to pick one "comedian" for something like this to happen to, it would definitely be blindboy.

I would disagree with that emphatically. Blindboy fans are typically very weedy, pale, weak weak men from what I have observed, probably riddled with all manner of undiagnosed ailments and maladies. It would tear through them like tinfoil.

Tacitus Kilgore

joseywhales wrote: »

Upside Housing crisis, climate change, pensions.

Alright edgelord

RocketRaccoon

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Hearing people were exposed at a recording of the Blindboy podcast in Clare last weekend. A dreadfully unfunny evening all round for the audience.

Any link to that? A friend/work colleague was at it.

thebaz

skepticalme wrote: »

For all who question why flights are not stopped. EU law apparantly. Lecturer on EU law talking to Ivan Yates on the hard shoulder yesterday. The relevant part is at the start of the interview.

https://www.newstalk.com/listen-back

Thought as much, EU law seams moire imprtant that containg the outbreak - North Italy has a serious outbreak , and most of the cases in rest of Eurpoe , can be traced to Italy - but keep the planes coming in , while preaching self-isolation/closing schools / wrecking the econmy etc just to satisfy EU law - Everyone is preaching the public to be vigilant , and yet we keep planes flying from area of high risk - This weekend with all the Italian rugby fans , who mainly come from North Italy is beyond ricdicous - bureacracy at its worst- would you stay in a hotel in Dublin city this weeked - given what happened in Canaries ?

ChikiChiki

sydthebeat wrote: »

Whatever we are hearing in the media and press briefings, they are giving info are days behind the actual situation.

Crisis management. Its a fine balance to keep the economy going and widespread panic.

I do agree that the 8.30 timing at night is a good time as it gives people time to digest in their homes.

flynnlives

For those of you suggesting we cant do anything about flights and quarantine i give you the example of Taiwan.

Only 42 cases and right next door to Korea and mainland china.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/why-taiwan-has-just-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report

In response, the Centers for Disease Control started onboard quarantine of all direct flights from Wuhan on December 31. The centers said on its website that by January 9 it had “inspected” 14 flights with 1,317 passengers and attendants.

Officials in Taiwan took a “more proactive” approach compared to other parts of Asia by stopping flights from China, lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng said. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese live in China and a lot of them return in the first two months of each year for holidays, a pattern that increased Taiwan’s exposure to the disease.

The Centers for Disease Control's daily announcements include details on how new patients might have gotten sick and whether anyone else might be infected. The island’s only death, for example, was described as a taxi driver in his 60s with two existing medical conditions.

Taiwanese citizens, Lo said, consider transparency “very important.” The government hopes to release information that keeps people on guard without inciting any panic, analysts believe.

and yet here we are one week on from the first case and we already have community transmission.
I turn on the news and see the "experts", whose sole job, extremely well paid i might ad, is to prepare for this crisis drawing stick figures on a whiteboard. ffs!

We are still dithering over St, patrick's day. In 2001 foot and mouth cancelled St. patrick's day with no objection from anyone from what i remember. There is zero leadership on this crisis in Gov. The HSE's transparency and decision making has been woeful.

I fear this is going to hit Ireland bad.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Hearing people were exposed at a recording of the Blindboy podcast in Clare last weekend. A dreadfully unfunny evening all round for the audience.

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

I wouldn't never wish ill will on anyone. I hope that no one actually got infected. But if I had to pick one "comedian" for something like this to happen to, it would definitely be blindboy.

Woke Hogan wrote: »

I would disagree with that emphatically. Blindboy fans are typically very weedy, pale, weak weak men from what I have observed, probably riddled with all manner of undiagnosed ailments and maladies. It would tear through them like tinfoil.

I will forever love Blindboy for how much he irks boardsies. It’s endlessly amusing.

Kermit.de.frog

pwurple wrote: »

Not everything is a stick to beat the government with either. We're not doing too badly with 13 cases, compared with other countries anyway.

Iceland is an example. Far smaller population (~360k people), more remote, they're up at 34 cases.

Switzerland, 8 million. 120 cases, and one death.

Norway, 5 million, pretty remote... 91 cases.

Yes but we are only at the start and all the graphs are the same.

Bump along for a week or two and then the surge.

The surge is coming here and I hope we can cope.

iguana

banie01 wrote: »

I'm just after tipping into the 40-49 group.
Not too worried by it causing me significant harm despite having underlying issues.

The arresting and containment of the spread is of more concern tbh.
Protection of the vulnerable and out medical and support staff needs to be prioritized IMO.

I'm 41 but far fitter and healthier than I was through my 30s. I have very little worry for me. There is even a part of me that thinks if I get it early, I'll likely recover very well and then almost certainly be immune for at least a few years. But I have plenty of close family who are much higher risk and I want to protect them and I want our society to protect them. What fuçking good are as a people we if we can't protect our weakest members. In this kind of situation you have to be 50% selfish - 50% selfless. We need to slow the spread because it's not just about me and other healthy people.

Tacitus Kilgore

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I will forever love Blindboy for how much he irks boardsies. It’s endlessly amusing.

He's our greta :pac:

Panrich

timmyntc wrote: »

First column is 1169 hospitalised with symptoms. Not clear if theres overlap between these and those in ICU. Assume not.

Recoveries are green column, 376.

No the first column translates as 'Recovered with symptoms' which means that they are still positive on tests but are to all intents recovered.

SeaBreezes

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

And that’s only the tip of the iceberg there. It looks like Iran might a country which follows the reasonable worst case trajectory due to government denial. There’s fascinating imagery of the location of cases which really shows it has simply spread across their road network from Qoms. They’re riddled in a manner unlike any other country (except maybe North Korea) by now. Plus even the figure they let out are huge underestimated.

Luckily theres no denial going on here.

Loafing Oaf

ThePopehimself wrote: »

The latest two confirmed cases of the virus are linked to the original outbreak in the West of Ireland earlier this week involving a family of two adults and two children.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/523140/update-six-cases-of-coronavirus-currently-in-isolation-university-hospital-limerick.html

If the other two are patients/colleagues of the GP, I bet they feel like climbing from their sickbeds to give him a piece of their mind...

pwurple

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/cork-town-cancels-st-patricks-day-parade-due-to-coronavirus-fears-986148.html

caveat emptor

spiritcrusher wrote: »

Hang on, how did you work that out? My interpretation of that is 244 are in ICU, 1169 are recovered and 364 are isolated at home. Giving a total of 1777 positive cases. So 13% are in hospital...

1169 "Ricoverati con sintomi" means recovering in hospital.
244

---

"Terapia intensiva" . Add the two of them together to get
1413
1777 is total actual cases. Divide one by the other and multiply by 100.

---

= 79.5% which when rounded to the nearest whole number.

Boggles

iguana wrote: »

I'm 41 but far fitter and healthier than I was through my 30s. I have very little worry for me. There is even a part of me that thinks if I get it early, I'll likely recover very well and then almost certainly be immune for at least a few years.

If this was a move you'd def be the first gone.

Canonfan

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Could you link to that? Much appreciated.

Sorry no link but it is 100% confirmed because I have a lot of Chinese friends and this is shared by WECHAT( Chinese chatting software).

runawaybishop

thebaz wrote: »

Thought as much, EU law seams moire imprtant that containg the outbreak - North Italy has a serious outbreak , and most of the cases in rest of Eurpoe , can be traced to Italy - but keep the planes coming in , while preaching self-isolation/closing schools / wrecking the econmy etc just to satisfy EU law - Everyone is preaching the public to be vigilant , and yet we keep planes flying from area of high risk - This weekend with all the Italian rugby fans , who mainly come from North Italy is beyond ricdicous - bureacracy at its worst- would you stay in a hotel in Dublin city this weeked - given what happened in Canaries ?

Its not true, EU law does not stop member states banning flights.

whisky_galore

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I will forever love Blindboy for how much he irks boardsies. It’s endlessly amusing.

He's easily ignored. I don't know why people bother listening to the likes of him.

piplip87

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, and I’m cautious here because there are people looking to nitpick everything for their own agendas and less interested in facts than selective abstraction of data to fit their preconceived viewpoints, but if you imagine the following:

1. All elective cardiac surgery cancelled.

2. All elective orthopaedic surgery cancelled - a lot of those people are old and even if the surgery isn’t that invasive the might need a high dependency bed for a few days - but they won’t die without the knee/hip replacement.


3. More focus on chemo and radiotherapy for cancer patients and prolonging chemo and radiotherapy courses to “smooth out” the usage of high dependency beds. It is likely that delaying surgery for a month or more with prolonged chemo would result in fewer deaths over time than simply not having that high dependency bed available for someone with COVID19.

I accept that the cancer example is on the extreme end of what would be done but:
A. Cancelling elective surgery which might require some ventilation/high dependency care would free up a lot of capacity.

B. Aggressively discharging patients earlier than we currently do - all hospitals have policies for this. Hell one Saturday I needed to make beds because we had run out and I discharged just under 20% of the in-patients under my care. Needs must when resources are right. That frees a lot of capacity - even reducing average length of stay from 10 days to 5 with aggressive discharge policies would free up a lot of ordinary beds.

C. If this got really bad then you’d start seeing almost all elective surgery cancelled whether or not it was at high risk of needing high levels of care afterward - this would free up ordinary beds.

D. And if it got even worse then it would escalate and things like cancer surgery being delayed with longer chemo/radio courses would start to happen. And lots of other things you wouldn’t even consider. That would result in deaths but if things got to that stage it would be about making the choice which would result in fewer deaths. Hopefully it won’t get to that stage


TLDR: there is a lot of scope for reducing bed usage depending on how aggressive we need to be. Far more than you might currently imagine but at the extreme ends of that the beds will be freed at some cost in lives - but doctors make those kinds of decisions every day so if it needs be it needs be.

Would there be a case made for moving some day treatments that currently occur under nurses supervision to primary care centres under nurses supervision with GPs on call just incase ?

I am thinking about immunological suppression treatments such as the ones used for MS ?

ChikiChiki

pwurple wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/cork-town-cancels-st-patricks-day-parade-due-to-coronavirus-fears-986148.html

There is absolutely no way Dublin should go ahead. Someone needs to make the call sooner rather than later.

Panrich

caveat emptor wrote: »

1169 "Ricoverati con sintomi" means recovering in hospital.
244

---

"Terapia intensiva" . Add the two of them together to get
1413
1777 is total actual cases. Divide one by the other and multiply by 100.

---

= 79.5% which when rounded to the nearest whole number.

Can you show where Recoverati con sintomi means recovering in hospital? It means recovering with symptoms. That is a huge difference.

EDIT: Actually 'recovered with symptoms'

runawaybishop

flynnlives wrote: »

For those of you suggesting we cant do anything about flights and quarantine i give you the example of Taiwan.

Only 42 cases and right next door to Korea and mainland china.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/why-taiwan-has-just-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report





and yet here we are one week on from the first case and we already have community transmission.
I turn on the news and see the "experts", whose sole job, extremely well paid i might ad, is to prepare for this crisis drawing stick figures on a whiteboard. ffs!

We are still dithering over St, patrick's day. In 2001 foot and mouth cancelled St. patrick's day with no objection from anyone from what i remember. There is zero leadership on this crisis in Gov. The HSE's transparency and decision making has been woeful.

I fear this is going to hit Ireland bad.

Italy was the first country to ban flights from china

Pseudonym121

banie01 wrote: »

Thanks for that, appreciate the structural overview.
It does give more scope for freeing space than I had expected.

Yeah. I’d expect you could free up to half of all hospital beds if needed.

Plus if you wanted to really get radical with repurposing you could see psychiatry wards converted to medical use and that’s a lot of extra beds - low dependency - they’d have difficulty giving even supplementary oxygen but there are about 50 psych beds for every 250,000 people in the country so that’d give you 200 beds per million which no-one is counting in any totals.

Again lots more scope than you’d imagine IF things got really bad.

jam_mac_jam

Woke Hogan wrote: »

I would disagree with that emphatically. Blindboy fans are typically very weedy, pale, weak weak men from what I have observed, probably riddled with all manner of undiagnosed ailments and maladies. It would tear through them like tinfoil.

It's nothing to do with how pale or weedy you are. You think viruses don't effect muscular men.. what nonsense

ThePopehimself

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are they yesterday's confirmations or new?

The article is vague in that respect.
It is a bit of a tricky one to figure out...
If I can confirm it either way before then I will.

2ndcoming

pwurple wrote: »

Not everything is a stick to beat the government with either. We're not doing too badly with 13 cases, compared with other countries anyway.

Iceland is an example. Far smaller population (~360k people), more remote, they're up at 34 cases.

Switzerland, 8 million. 120 cases, and one death.

Norway, 5 million, pretty remote... 91 cases.

All three of those countries are far more into wintersports / mountaineering and therefore far more likely to have large numbers visiting Northern Italy in winter.

tobefrank321

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Banning flights from Italy makes no sense anyway - they fly from anywhere else in Europe or travel to the UK.

It would massively reduce the number of people travelling to and from a highly infected area where a very virulent virus is now pretty much endemic.

Do you accept that reducing air travel would at least give us some chance of containing this?

Give that something like 12 out of our 13 cases are directly related to likely cheap and easily available travel to northern Italy?

Bans on travel to China were brought in months ago and thankfully that has led to a drop in cases internationally linked to China.

The Coronavirus just loves the free movement of people and depends on it. And so its perfectly made for a largely unchecked spread across modern Europe.

kermit.de.tool

Here to counter panic and misinformation. Let’s fight this thing together and fight the need for infection cheerleading and doomsday porn.