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Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    That’s a bit excessive. Even if we had the reasonable worst case scenario of 50k dead we wouldn’t be done and we are likely to have significantly less than that. I still think it is most likely to be between 1000 to 2000 dead in Ireland over the next 12 months with an upper moderate case bound of 5000 as 50k is what happens if steps governments and health authorities take really don’t work.

    The more we handwashing, the more people are proactive in self isolating etc etc the more that upper bound is unlikely to be realised.

    5,000 dead will be sad and personal tragedies to a lot of families but it will not render the state dysfunctional in either the short or long term. Even 50,000 won’t do that. So this is serious but not an existential threat to society.

    This is also a massive global recession, a banking crisis, an unemployment crisis and much more besides.

    I'm not saying we're done - but this is going to be an enormous challenge


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭circadian


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    You know this virus is not flu, right?

    Its a combo of SARS/HIV.

    This has to be one of the stupidest things I've seen on here.

    Humans share 96% of their DNA with Chimpanzees. We're both hominins, closely related.

    SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, just like HIV. RNA viruses are going to share genome patterns, they're single stranded and while they can form complex 3D shapes, there is a high probability of patterns at different parts of the genome appearing to be similar to other viruses.


    Christ on a bike.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    stuff like this tbh

    It's true.

    If we had an outbreak like that we would require the type of outside assistance that would effectively end the sovereignty of the country.

    We don't have the capacity to deal with what is going on on the continent.

    There is no argument to be had here. We just don't. The health system would collapse.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Yes, it is.
    Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.

    The grim finding was reported on by Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times on Friday, after a paper by Wuhan doctors published in the Journal of Forensic Medicine earlier in the week went viral on Chinese social media.

    The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times.

    Dr Peng was commenting on the paper by Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, whose team had conducted nine autopsies of coronavirus patients as of February 24.

    “The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients’ lungs from irreversible fibrosis,” Dr Peng told the outlet.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinese-doctors-say-coronavirus-like-a-combination-of-sars-and-aids-can-cause-irreversible-lung-damage/news-story/f58f19c5eeae99b845c54e2d2b9305ca



    Latest coronavirus research by a team of researchers from Nankai University in Tianjin lead by Professor Ruan Jishou, a prominent virologists and genomicist have discovered that the new SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease has a mutated gene that is found in HIV virus. It is this unique feature that sets it aside from the rest of the known coronaviruses.
    The study is published this week on Chinaxiv.org, a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to release scientific research papers before they have been peer-reviewed .( http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00082)

    These findings have huge implications on the potency of the coronavirus and also what it can cause in humans, not just the Covid-19 disease. Furthermore, the Covid-19 disease should never be compared to like the common cold or influenza virus as this new coronavirus is in a separate league of its own.

    Though it has not been peer reviewed, two other studies including one in Europe has confirmed the findings.

    The combined findings from the three studies indicates that because of the HIV-like mutations, its ability to bind with human cells could be as much as 1,000 times more potent that the initial SARS virus of 2003.

    The findings also indicate that the new SARS-CoV-2 has a ‘dual attack’ approach of binding to human cells.

    The first is via the ACE2 receptors found on human cell membranes and it’s a typical mode of most coronaviruses. (The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has a plus 80 percent genomic matching to the previous SARS virus, hence it explains this property that it possesses)

    However it must be noted that the ACE2 protein does not occur in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the SARS outbreak of 2002/2003 which infected close to 8,000 people globally.

    As the findings of the new study indicates that the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has a mutated gene similarly found on the HIV virus, it is also able to attack human cells via the target called furin, which is an enzyme that works as a protein activator in the human body. Typically many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions which furin does in the human cellular pathways.

    Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin discovered this new property of the SARS-CoV-2 when they were doing genome sequencing of the new coronavirus found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in the original SARS virus, but were similar to those found in HIV.

    Professor Ruan Jishou told Thailand Medical News via a phone interview, “This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV coronavirus may be significantly different from the SARS coronavirus in the infection pathway and has the added potency of using the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV.”
    Another research conducted also this month, by Professor Li Hua , another prominent virologist and genetic specialists, and his team from Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, Hubei province, also confirmed Professor Ruan’s findings. http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00062

    The study indicated that the HIV-like gene found on the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was not detected on any of the other coronaviruses including the MERS, original SARS and even the Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes.

    Professor Li told Thailand Medical News,” This is maybe why the SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than the other known coronaviruses.”
    A European a study by French scientist professor Dr Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University in France, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research , also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses, thus confirming the initial findings as well. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32057769)


    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-latestcoronavirus-research-reveals-that-the-virus-has-mutated-gene-similar-to-hiv-and-is-1,000-times-more-potent-

    With all due respect it simply is NOT like HIV in the sense that you are picking that up.

    You and I have a multitude of genes in our DNA genome which are also found in mice. That doesn’t make us mice.

    You simply need to accept that they were trying to communicate something about severity and mode of action and didn’t think through how that would be perceived by non-clinicians in the Western world.

    COVID19 is NOT like HIV or AIDS in the sense people seem to be fearing and saying it has a gene found in HIV is not at all unsurprising. It also doesn’t mean very much - certainly not in the way some people are inferring.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    seamus wrote: »
    My wife got a forwarded whatsapp yesterday claiming that the irish medicines board had issued a restriction on the sale of Calpol only to sick children.

    People. Literally. Just. Make. Sh1t. Up.

    If the information is not coming from the WHO, HSE or another national authority, then consider it bullsh1t until you independently verify it.
    +1000 and even those organisations are back and forth because we're still in the middle of this thing. Though sad to say with our HSE I'd be looking more to international organisations for guidance. The HSE and the politicians behind them have proven over the years to be at best reactive rather than proactive. Piss up in a brewery springs to mind. Though the HSE at its very worst is a far far better source than Mary on Facebook, who likes interior design, crystals and coffee enemas.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,920 ✭✭✭micar


    GM228 wrote: »
    First case reported in the Vatican, I guess there is no divine intervention afterall.

    The pope has declared "who ever cures the person without medical intervention will be beatified"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,335 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    seamus wrote: »
    As if it hasn't been said enough already; if you're taking your information about this from Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, etc, then just stop.

    People do just make sh1t up. People do panic and spread that panic. In fact, as animals we are prewired to be triggered by other peoples' panic, hence why panic spreads quickly. Think about a herd of deer all suddenly bolting - this starts because one deer got startled, and the rest then follow their lead. Because in evolutionary terms you're better off panicking when there's no lion, than ignoring the panic and getting eaten by the lion.

    My wife got a forwarded whatsapp yesterday claiming that the irish medicines board had issued a restriction on the sale of Calpol only to sick children.

    People. Literally. Just. Make. Sh1t. Up.

    If the information is not coming from the WHO, HSE or another national authority, then consider it bullsh1t until you independently verify it.

    Part of the problem as well is that a lot of people aren't smart enough to tell the difference between good info from good sources and total BS. This becomes a problem when the likes of twitter, facebook and snapchat are constantly bombarding these people with new information. It's inevitably going to cause panick as people are shocked by what they are reading or seeing and start sharing it around. There was multiple examples of it in the first thread. People regurgitating nonsense videos that could be from literally anywhere as if it was somehow reliable info, or believing crazy nonsense due to lack of knowledge on viruses and science in general. The whole thing has made me feel like society is getting dumber by the day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    Again why only people able to read medical literature should be allowed relay it in lay terms.

    *chuckle* amen. To be fair though I could imagine a lot of my colleagues just bamboozling people too. I think that’s actually why we need people who are clinicians but are specifically trained in communication to bridge the gap on both sides.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,713 ✭✭✭Gods Gift


    Ive heard this virus is like the normal flu, but on cocaine and red bull. And drives a early 90s souped up Honda Civic. (Jap import)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭PixelTrawler


    "More than 60 staff at Cork University Hospital have been asked to self isolate following a case of community transmission of Covid-19 at the hospital.

    The Health Service Executive’s National Director of Acute Operations, Liam Woods, said steps have been taken overnight including visitor restriction and curtailment of some elective procedures and outpatient services.

    He said the hospital will have to adjust services and there will be a redeployment of staff, RTE news reported.

    A helpline is available at 1850 24 1850 and is open Monday to Friday from 8am to 8pm and from 9am to 5pm at the weekend and Woods said people should call that if they have inquiries or concerns rather than the 999 or 112 emergency numbers."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-update-latest-live-news-symptoms-cases-global-infection-rate-uk-usa-australia-italy-china-updates


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,805 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    gozunda wrote: »
    The case for suspending flights to and from northern Italy. 



    Dr Carmen Regan - Consultant Senior Lecturer at the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland

    https://amp.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-cannot-afford-to-have-an-influx-of-potentially-infected-individuals-obstetricians-plea-39015974.html

    It speaks to that most glaring of absences from our Public Service and Political masters.

    That of accountability.
    It's far too late now for any gain to be made in stopping the flights.
    But...
    When a virus is spreading, when containment is the stated Government strategy.
    Allowing unrestricted travel too and from known high risk areas?
    Not restricting mass gatherings?

    Are not means to contain anything.
    Containment for any future incident must include precluding all but absolutely necessary travel.

    The globalisation of our economy and leisure means that we take travel for granted.
    If we look back at the history of virulent outbreak and it's spread.
    We are at a point where in a matter of days spread can be worldwide, versus the old model of westward travel along trade and shipping routes.

    This kind of spread can only really be interdicted by firm action. Close entry points and quarantine. It's far easier to apologize for a delayed entry than it is to try recover from a pandemic situation that could have been at least mitigated.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Lonesomerhodes


    tillyfilly wrote: »
    or you could get laid off ?

    Won't matter one jot if we are all dead now will it!. :P


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    josip wrote: »
    Could ye slow it down a bit at the front please?
    I'm 8 pages back and have been struggling to catch up for the last half an hour.

    I started catching up on the thread at 7am this morning. This is where I’m at 00:10!

    Perhaps I will be the last poster standing

    Hmmmm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭fifth


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Yes, it is.
    Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭circadian


    I started catching up on the thread at 7am this morning. This is where I’m at 00:10!

    Perhaps I will be the last poster standing

    Hmmmm

    00:10, you're in tomorrow already?! We have no chance of reading this tread if that's the case.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Not suggesting total dysfunction\existential threat but this worst case scenario from the UK does suggest considerable strain on the state's ability to function:

    https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/u-k-warns-companies-that-20-percent-of-workforce-could-be-out-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/
    British businesses were warned as many as 20% of their workers could be forced to take time off during peak periods of infection if the U.K. is hit by a widespread outbreak of coronavirus.
    As the number of confirmed infections in the U.K. rose to 51, the government published its plan for dealing with the disease. It included an estimate that in a worst-case, a fifth of the workforce — more than 6 million people — could be absent.
    This would have knock-on effects, as others would be forced to take time off to care for those who are ill, or to look after children if schools are closed. Such a peak period of infection would be likely to last around three weeks, the government said.

    Yes I’ve been attacked on here for pointing to that same government document regarding the reasonable worst case death toll but even with 20% of the workforce sick at any one time - given that roughly 98% of those will survive - it is NOT an existential threat to the state, human society or our species.

    More people are going to die than people on here think but even the reasonable worst case scenario isn’t an existential threat and will be bounced back from over a period of a few years in Ireland. - that won’t be true everywhere in the world but we will bounce back


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,213 ✭✭✭piplip87


    "I see too many politicians talking about this. We need to let the experts take the lead'. Cheif from the Diamond Princess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,026 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Local parades are cancelling themselves rather than waiting for our half arsed govt and propaganda minister for health to come out with anything.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    It's true.

    If we had an outbreak like that we would require the type of outside assistance that would effectively end the sovereignty of the country.

    We don't have the capacity to deal with what is going on on the continent.

    There is no argument to be had here. We just don't. The health system would collapse.

    Didn`t that happen after the bailout in 2010? Our grandchildrens` grandchildren will still be paying back the debt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭mlem123


    Useful tip for hand washing :L


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,776 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Just got given a talk about the Coronavirus at work.

    Washing hands a priority.

    No way!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Serbia reports first case.

    Europe is running out of safe havens :P


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    gabeeg wrote: »
    This is also a massive global recession, a banking crisis, an unemployment crisis and much more besides.

    I'm not saying we're done - but this is going to be an enormous challenge

    Absolutely. I’ve taken financial steps to prevent that damage hitting me too hard and am holding off moving till next year when I expect house prices to be lower with significantly lower mortgage rates. It will also probably trigger the recession we are due worldwide especially as I have no faith in the current US government’s reaction and think it will hit the US very hard.

    But none of the above is an existential threat to us. Painful yes but not existential.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭solidasarock


    The virus makes your willy small.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Lonesomerhodes


    The virus makes your willy small.

    Could do with a few inches off, sick of having to strap it to my leg.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    circadian wrote: »
    00:10, you're in tomorrow already?! We have no chance of reading this tread if that's the case.

    Feck it I’m skipping. Lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭Tacitus Kilgore


    It's true.

    If we had an outbreak like that we would require the type of outside assistance that would effectively end the sovereignty of the country.

    We don't have the capacity to deal with what is going on on the continent.

    There is no argument to be had here. We just don't. The health system would collapse.

    So, you've downgraded from us becoming a mad-max style post apocalyptic wasteland to requiring outside assistance to the health system? What's this about sovereignty????




    Stop trying to rise panic dude, you have a lot of folks ears, stop being irresponsible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,477 ✭✭✭✭Knex*


    MOR316 wrote: »
    And when you cough, it sounds like Liam Neeson chasing a load of chickens around in a barrel

    That's a phenomenal description :D


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The virus makes your willy small.

    Awwww is that what they told you to make you feel better about yourself?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,213 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Job interview for Monday morning cancelled. Position still available but due to virus, interviews and training have been delayed.


This discussion has been closed.
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