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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Comments

  • #7652
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭1641


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    If they only test a few people then they can keep the numbers of confirmed cases low for as long as possible. It seems they are following the american approach.




    Nothing like the good oul conspiracy.


  • #7653
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,949 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With less than 1% of the population in China getting it why do you think 50 - 80% of the population in Europe will get it?

    Its actually something like .001 % of the population of China ,


  • #7654
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭1641


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Exactly the difference in approach is evident and based on European CDC decision that we (Europe) can't contain it. (see previous post)
    WHO is in disagreement with this and thinks it can be contained based on places like Singapore and HongKong.

    But as other posters have stated what that means in practice HSE telling people "masks not effective" cause we don't have any.


    You are referring to WHO as the best authority. Yet WHO have said that masks are both inefffective and unneecessary for the general population as a preventative measure.


  • #7655
    ZiabR
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,575 ✭✭✭ZiabR


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With less than 1% of the population in China getting it why do you think 50 - 80% of the population in Europe will get it?

    While I dont believe that as much as 80% of the EU will get it, you are forgetting that China is a communist state that has the ability to shut entire cities down. The policies that China used to contain and slow the virus would never work or be acceptable in the democratic EU. China used draconian measures and they seem to have worked but those measures wont be used in the EU or the USA.


  • #7656
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    Allinall wrote: »
    How do you know this?

    sorry it's a typo, we performed 300 test.


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  • #7657
    daheff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭daheff


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    From the W.H.O. last night:


    Covid 19 is less infectious than influenza

    .

    Absolutely don't believe this. China would not have locked down hundreds of millions of people if that were the case.

    Just look at the cruise ship in Japan. Influenza would not have spread to so many people over that timescale.... especially those in lockdown.

    It's spreading like wildfire in countries that are not taking active precautions


  • #7658
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    fr336 wrote: »
    Hospitals in France have been reported masks being stolen from them can you believe that


    My wife works in a hospital and told me that the hand sanitizer dispensers along the walls are regularly stolen, daily.
    Italy here.


  • #7659
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With less than 1% of the population in China getting it why do you think 50 - 80% of the population in Europe will get it?

    I don't but the chief UK medical officer says it's likely less than that but not certain.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-spread-80-brits-21621349


  • #7660
    Bob24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    dublin99 wrote: »
    If you look at the cities in Asia that have only recorded relatively small number of new cases and all traceable to existing clusters, like Singapore and Hongkong, these are places where EVERYONE wears a mask,ie protected from potential spreaders that are not symptomatic (yet) but nevertheless incubating and spreading the virus.

    Macau has not reported a new case for over 3 weeks. Everyone has to wear a mask on public transport.

    The reason they tell us masks are useless is because they know there aren't enough.

    100% agreed. The difference is that Asian people are much more used to wearing masks and have supplies at home.

    What Western politicians really mean when they say it is not useful for the general public to buy masks is: we don’t have enough supply for everyone so the most useful way to use that supply is to reserve it for medical workers and critical government bodies so that these critical services are not too affected if we have to deal with an epidemics. But of course they can’t really say it that bluntly.


  • #7661
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Allinall wrote: »
    How do you know this?


    For info


    Totals : 397 tests carried out in the republic plus 150 in Northern Ireland


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  • #7662
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    MadYaker wrote: »
    If there’s an increase in cases after paddy’s day it’ll be a coincidence. Most large gatherings aren’t essential. What events / gatherings would you ban and which ones would you allow and on what basis? I’m struggling to follow the line of reasoning in your posts. Politicians getting sick won’t affect the government’s strategy.

    I think people are justifying St. Patrick's Day celebrations being cancelled due to the large influx of people from affected countries that will be gathering in large numbers in close proximity to each other. But it is two weeks away so things could be fine by then. It is a difficult call to make. I think the poster means that when people or their own families are affected by something they understand it better and care more


  • #7663
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    If they only test a few people then they can keep the numbers of confirmed cases low for as long as possible. It seems they are following the american approach.

    Maybe they want it to spread like wildfire so people die and trolley numbers are reduced making it look like we have a fantastic health service.


  • #7664
    YFlyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    daheff wrote: »

    It's spreading like wildfire in countries that are not taking active precautions

    The flu spreads much faster within a country.


  • #7665
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With less than 1% of the population in China getting it why do you think 50 - 80% of the population in Europe will get it?

    Whatever about 50-80%... who knows what number that will be.

    As for the less than 1% = China. Shutdown. The. Country.

    Why aren't people grasping this...


  • #7666
    DrumSteve
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,798 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    Why not just reschedule it.

    May Bank Holiday weekend.

    There you go.


  • #7667
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,100 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Italy is a huge touristic attraction. The first few patients that were found in January had all traveled around the north visiting lots of crowded places. Whenver 1-2 cases are found in a country you already know there are hundreds around already taht may or may not turn up in hospital. Italy went from 3 cases to 100 in a day

    Agreed. During the press conference yesterday it was mention that, as of then, 25856 people had been tested, with a total number of infections (including people who had recovered and people who had died) of 2263 - if the infection is present, the more people you test, the more infections you find.
    1641 wrote: »
    Yes, if you were paranoid. But just to confirm that you are not, have you a source for the claim about Italy?

    I stand corrected. The RAI newsreader mentioned that virologists were able to date it to as far back as October in Italy. Although they've isolated it, they're in fact still trying to date the Italian strain, their publication on the Journal of Virology referred to the Chinese strain.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25723
    The Bayesian approach used indicated a most probable origin of the epidemic between October and November 2019.
    The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent‐based exponential growth and a birth‐death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 × 10−4 subs/site/year (range, 1.1 × 10−4‐15 × 10−4) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range, 2.1‐5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days.

    https://www.ohga.it/coronavirus-in-italia-isolato-allospedale-sacco-di-milano-il-ceppo-italiano-del-virus/
    https://www.ohga.it/coronavirus-isolato-il-ceppo-italiano-il-professor-zehender-ci-spiega-cosa-si-potra-ottenere-adesso/
    https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/28/news/coronavirus_studio_italiano_all_oms_epidemia_da_ottobre_contagi_raddoppiati_ogni_4_giorni-249808885/


  • #7668
    auspicious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,536 ✭✭✭auspicious


    Dr. Kim Roberts, Ussher Assistant professor at Trinity with expertise in influenza; Microbiology; molecular- biology; Virology; Virology and viral pathogenesis was asked on Prime Time last night if she would go to the Paddy's Day parade?
    She replied that she would not take her family to it, citing the large influx of international visitors in close quarters as her reason.
    That's good enough for me to follow in her footsteps, or lack thereof.


  • #7669
    Tootsie_1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Tootsie_1


    I would be more concerned right now about all the Italians that had booked flights for the rugby and due to fly in this weekend rather than Paddy’s Day for now anyway.


  • #7670
    dePeatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭dePeatrick


    positivenote wrote: »
    honest query here guys:
    Will this virus become just something else that will become normalized as part of our eveyday lives in the future in the same way that influenza is at the moment. People catch and die from (depending on pre-existing conditions) it all the time. Or is it likely to 'die off' itself due to containment?

    Time-wise when are we expecting the newsworthiness of it to dampen down and people just become more cautious and hygienic as part of their day to day lives?
    That depends an many factors, whether it is possible for people to catch it a second time, there are reports of this but there are also reports of false readings, personally I think this is the case.

    A vaccine will come out and most people especially elderly will take it but depending on its severity not everyone will gems it so it could hang around or mutate to a lesser form.

    The elimination of disease has proven very difficult, has been done with smallpox, but has failed with measles and anti-vaxxers can take a lot of the responsibility for this!


  • #7671
    dePeatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭dePeatrick


    Tootsie_1 wrote: »
    I would be more concerned right now about all the Italians that had booked flights for the rugby and due to fly in this weekend rather than Paddy’s Day for now anyway.
    Thermal scanner in the airport is essential.


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  • #7672
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    Xertz wrote: »
    I actually don't quite understand what you're talking about. I mean, what do you want people do do?

    Run around like headless chickens in some kind of blind panic? Lord of the Flies?

    There's no point in panicking. We have the facilities we have. There's a secondary political discussion to be had about why those facilities are under capacity and I think we've just had that during the election. That isn't a short term problem. It's been a mixture of bad policy making and the 2008 economic melt down. However, we are where we are and we aren't going to be able to snap our fingers and change that and suddenly have 3X the A&E capacity.

    We have a limited amount of ICU beds, but I was looking at stats and they're actually very much in line with the UK and a few other countries in Northern Europe. Those kinds of facilities aren't generally built to have on stand by, rather they're built in line with need. That's not unusual or strange.

    We aren't going to be able to suddenly build and staff thousands of ICU beds, but we will just have to cope with what we have and use the resources as best as we can.

    This isn't China. You can't just command people on pain of death or arrest not to do X, Y and Z. All you can do is appeal to common sense and ask people to be cooperative and in general they are.

    The worst aspect of social media, forums and tabloids is that they seem to get off on the panic and the frightening stories.

    Yes, this is a serious situation. Yes, we potentially could be facing serious problems but what's the point in going into utterly freaked out mode.

    It's time to take a breath (carefully) and plan appropriately.

    That's a strawman because as we all know out there in the real world most people are still under the impression that its a strong flu and it probably won't be as big a deal, whatabout SARS etc. The government, establishment media and HSE communication have not made clear the types of thing you, Pseudonym and the man from James' intensive care were saying. The reason to be doom and gloom from my perspective is because the more seriously the population takes it and the earlier, the better it will be. It is pretty doom and gloom anywhere that gets moderate spread.

    If it was emphasised that a few hundred confirmed cases would put a strain on our health system the kind of which none of us has ever seen then it would be easier to get the necessary compliance that is required from the population sooner.


  • #7673
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    4 more cases in New York, 6 total now.


  • #7674
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭1641


    daheff wrote: »
    Absolutely don't believe this. China would not have locked down hundreds of millions of people if that were the case.

    Just look at the cruise ship in Japan. Influenza would not have spread to so many people over that timescale.... especially those in lockdown.

    It's spreading like wildfire in countries that are not taking active precautions


    Well people are believing what they choose to believe. Evidence is irrelevant.


    China locked down because the kill rate of the virus is much higher than Flu, not because it is more infectious. Other factors - it is a new virus, so response to treatments, and what treatments to use, is unknown, long term consequences for survivors are unknown, when there will be a vaccine is unknown (and how effective a vaccine might be, as we do not know how it might mutate).


  • #7675
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Stopping the parade is a big decision, it will get global attention and the fallout will last for months as Ireland will be seen as an unsafe destination to the masses.


  • #7676
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    The nihilistic types among us might decide to purposely spread the virus

    If I see a VW Caravelle wandering around I'll know to avoid it.


  • #7677
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,100 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    I feel bad for Galway 2020... The start wasn't good, this isn't going to help one bit.


  • #7678
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,612 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    sorry it's a typo, we performed 300 test.

    Heard it was up on 400, and that was last night


  • #7679
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Stopping the parade is a big decision, it will get global attention and the fallout will last for months as Ireland will be seen as an unsafe destination to the masses.

    Couldn't we all just agree not to attend? So it goes ahead, we don't get the bad press from cancelling it, and only the American cheerleaders turned blue from the cold are at risk.


  • #7680
    solidasarock
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭solidasarock


    The parade will get cancelled. I just cant see it going a head. Its just a matter of how close they want to be before pulling it.

    Do you do it now and give tourists time to cancel plans or do with a few days before and still have a thousand potential unsystematic carriers wandering around the capital.


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  • #7681
    Candamir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Candamir


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    sorry it's a typo, we performed 300 test.

    Wrong again. Another typo, or just scaremongering?


This discussion has been closed.
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