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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Comments

  • #7172
    Tomato1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27 ✭Tomato1


    https://twitter.com/AmbulanceNAS/status/1235123315179696128?s=19

    Be nice if they told staff. First anybody in the service has heard of it. Management too pre occupied with PR.

    Training for this probably won't be completed until the end of summer no doubt.


  • #7173
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,002 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    quokula wrote: »
    504568.png

    Coronavirus in blue. It's been closer to linear than it has been to exponential so far.

    We don't have an exponential capacity to test for the virus. Our capacity is linear and is limited by test kits and staff.


  • #7174
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,458 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Be great if boards could do A now you are talking to a coronavirus infectee. Let's get in done

    We're anticipating being overwhelmed with volunteers over the next 14 days or so......



    :pac:


  • #7175
    2ygb4cmqetsjhx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 564 ✭✭✭2ygb4cmqetsjhx


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    I’m hoping I’m not the only dumb dumb here but I’ll take one for the team.......

    Could someone explain linear and exponential please?

    :embarrassed:




    Purely theoretical but to understand the difference between linear and exponential growth consider the following.

    Pretend there are 7 billion people in the world and the growth rate is linear per day.
    An example of a linear function is y=4x.



    Let x be the days and y the number of people infected on that day.
    On day one there will be 4 people infected:
    y = 4x = 4(1) = 4 infections.
    On day two there will be 8 people infected:
    y = 4(2) = 4 infections.

    This goes on like this with the infections increasing by 4 per day and it will be like this series:
    4 8 12 16 20 ....

    With this linear growth of 4 infections per day it would take:

    7,000,000,000 / 4 = 1750000000 days = 4794520.54795 years

    for the whole planet to get infected. 4 is the gradient in this case but it could be something like 20. However the nature of the growth will still be quite slow.


    Exponential growth on the other hand is a completely different thing to worry about.
    An exponential function looks like the following:
    y=2^x

    Again x is the number of days and y the number of people infected:

    y = 2^x = 2^1 = 2 infections
    y = 2^x = 2^2 = 4 infections
    y = 2^x = 2^3 = 8 infections
    This goes on and on as follows:

    2 4 8 16 32 64 128 264 512.

    The whole population will be infected after the following number of days:

    2^x = 7000000000
    x = log 7000000000 where log is to the base 2.
    x = 32.704707776 days.

    The whole population will be infected after 32.704707776 days.

    In the real world the constants in the functions might be different but it should give the correct idea.


  • #7176
    omega man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,144 ✭✭✭omega man


    EU and other governments must be privately angry with the Italian response to date.


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  • #7177
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    cnocbui wrote: »
    We don't have an exponential capacity to test for the virus. Our capacity is linear and is limited by test kits and staff.

    I do wonder about this. Sort of feels like we are only going to figure out how bad it is here over the coming months, not through testing, but keeping an eye on our hospitals.


  • #7178
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    omega man wrote: »
    EU and other governments must be privately angry with the Italian response to date.

    Whatever happens, alot of relationships could be strained over the coming months, people gonna find out who their real friends are . .


  • #7179
    amber2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭amber2


    Cartel Mike wrote: »
    Shools where i come from dont go to europe or ski trips to northern italy . Obviously these are dublin schools

    https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/two-cork-secondary-schools-issue-17814678

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-fears-force-Cork-school-to-cancel-ski-trip-to-Italy--7054e799-4e6e-4bc4-8473-9c4320080d29-ds

    Cork schools too.


  • #7180
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭quokula


    cnocbui wrote: »
    We don't have an exponential capacity to test for the virus. Our capacity is linear and is limited by test kits and staff.

    The WHO have explicitly said this isn't the case in China and that the reducing numbers are real. In general far more people are being tested than are testing positive.


  • #7181
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    quokula wrote: »
    504568.png

    Coronavirus in blue. It's been closer to linear than it has been to exponential so far.

    Another example of exponential growth is when one goes out for 1 pint...but comes home in a heap, the number of pints grew exponentially.


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  • #7182
    gabeeg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    omega man wrote: »
    EU and other governments must be privately angry with the Italian response to date.

    I don't see much value in pointing fingers

    They had a much stronger response than many other countries. I daresay ours will be inferior.

    They've been really unlucky


  • #7183
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    wakka12 wrote: »
    14 Italian tourists in India test positive...jaysis Italy must be bursting at the seams with corona

    Who all walked through Jaipur bustling city before being diagnosed


  • #7184
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    9 out of 10 new cases in Belgium contracted the infection in Italy, one in a serious condition.


  • #7185
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭quokula


    Cupatae wrote: »
    Another example of exponential growth is when one goes out for 1 pint...but comes home in a heap, the number of pints grew exponentially.

    If you went from 1 pint to 4 pints in two hours, that's a doubling every hour. By the same time next day, you'll have drank over 16 million pints. Undeniable facts.


  • #7186
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Beasty wrote: »
    We're anticipating being overwhelmed with volunteers over the next 14 days or so......



    :pac:

    I see our last ‘case’ has made the most amazing recovery and is still posting on boards despite the mobile ban in the hospital.


  • #7187
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    quokula wrote: »
    If you went from 1 pint to 4 pints in two hours, that's a doubling every hour. By the same time next day, you'll have drank over 16 million pints. Undeniable facts.

    its happened you know..


  • #7188
    mlem123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭mlem123


    Cartel Mike wrote: »
    Shools where i come from dont go to europe or ski trips to northern italy . Obviously these are dublin schools

    I thought it was well established at this stage that it's school's all over the country going on skiing holidays :P So many culchies here trying to pretend Dublin is the only with the notions to go on skiing holidays lol


  • #7189
    Mango Joe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,178 ✭✭✭Mango Joe


    omega man wrote: »
    EU and other governments must be privately angry with the Italian response to date.
    WWII DB wrote:
    In 1936, Italy and Germany entered into the Pact of Steel. The two nations grew closer together, with Italy supporting Germany's expansion into Central Europe and both nations supporting Francisco Franco in the Spanish Civil War. In Apr 1939, Italy occupied Albania. In Sep 1939, in a move that surprised Hitler slightly, Italy refused to enter the European War due to Italy's ill-preparedness for major military action.

    Mussolini did, however, declare war on the Western Allies in Jun 1940 after France had essentially fallen to the Germans. In Oct 1940, Italy invaded Greece but her army performed poorly and had to be bailed out by German intervention. Although Germany originally had no plans of an excursion into the Balkans, Hitler thought securing Yugoslavia and the Balkans would protect Axis Romania's oil fields, plus it would secure the southern flank of the upcoming campaign against Russia. Italy's war in North Africa, too, did not go as well as Mussolini had hoped.

    Once again, Germany had to reinforce Italian forces, most notably with Erwin Rommel and his Afrika Korps. The Axis forces in North Africa were eventually defeated by the Allies, and from there an invasion of Sicily was launched. The fall of Sicily was so devastating to Italian morale that Mussolini's regime was toppled in Sep 1943. Italy surrendered in Sep 1943. Germany immediately invaded Italy and established a puppet state under Mussolini in the northern part of the country while the Allies invaded and took control of the southern and central parts. Italy remained a bitter battlefield until Apr 1945.

    ww2dbaseAfter the war, Italy lost some territory to France and Yugoslavia. The monarchy fell in 1946 and a close national referendum established a republic.

    Italy has some dire and shamefully record historically but they seem to have escaped general criticism for it in the main - memories are so short - They basically scampered around after Nazi Germany during WWII doing their very best to be involved but were too ineffectual and useless to cause as much misery as they sincerely wanted.


  • #7190
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    quokula wrote: »
    If you went from 1 pint to 4 pints in two hours, that's a doubling every hour. By the same time next day, you'll have drank over 16 million pints. Undeniable facts.



  • #7191
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    leahyl wrote: »
    Lol William and Kate are visiting there today

    Hopefully they have been thoroughly screened for the virus beforehand.


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  • #7192
    The Rooster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,060 ✭✭✭The Rooster


    amber2 wrote: »
    https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/two-cork-secondary-schools-issue-17814678

    Cork schools too.

    I've heard of schools in Cork, Tipp, Kildare and Meath as well as Dublin. A colleague in work also thinks he heard of a Mayo one, but he's not sure.

    Didn't happen in my day either, but my local school in North Dublin did a ski trip for the first time this year for TY students.

    It's the parents that pay of course. Must be all non-SF supporters seeing how awful they've had things - but that's for another thread!


  • #7193
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Cupatae wrote: »
    Another example of exponential growth is when one goes out for 1 pint...but comes home in a heap, the number of pints grew exponentially.

    Hour 1 - 1 pint
    Hour 2 - 2 pints
    Hour 3 - 3 pints
    Hour 4 - 6 pints

    giphy.gif


  • #7194
    sweetie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,797 ✭✭✭sweetie


    in my day we were lucky to get a day trip to Kiltiernan to fake-ski.


  • #7195
    megabomberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 131 ✭✭megabomberman


    Is it possible to test someone to see if they had contracted and recovered from covid - 19 unbeknownst to themselves?

    Would be exceptionally useful in selecting front line emergency volunteers to help when the **** hits the fan.


  • #7196
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    megabomberman wrote: »
    Is it possible to test someone to see if they had contracted and recovered from covid - 19 unbeknownst to themselves?

    Would be exceptionally useful in selecting front line emergency volunteers to help when the **** hits the fan.
    Should be for a while anyway - they can test for the antibodies, right?


  • #7197
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    The results of the actions we take now will only become obvious in a week or two.

    We need to be proactive not reactive. Fire prevention is far better and cheaper than firefighting.

    Countries infected by travelers from Italy so far ! (bigger version here )

    450px-Italian_COVID19_contagious.png

    The Italian outbreak is totally out of control and we will go exactly the same way if something is not done fast. The virus is the same one which is causing mayhem all over the world.

    It is wishful thinking to expect the virus to behave in any other way here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy


  • #7198
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-european-countries-that-wash-their-hands-least-after-going-to-the-toilet-a6757711.html

    The European countries that wash their hands least after going to the toilet

    1. Dutch (50%)
    2. Italians (57%)


  • #7199
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    omega man wrote: »
    EU and other governments must be privately angry with the Italian response to date.

    EU response themselves has been extremely poor.

    They are very quick to pile on countries over financial matters with emergency summits etc.

    I'm not seeing the same here.


  • #7200
    Glenbhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,853 ✭✭✭Glenbhoy


    solidasarock wrote: »
    Havent they been taken temperatures with thermal cameras to check for fevers at major EU airports for weeks? Meanwhile the HSE is handing out leaflets in Dublin.

    And at this stage I would recommend anyone coming from a hotspot such as Northern Italy to self isolate even if they feel well now.

    But if only we had some medical professionals in this country then I am sure they could come up with a better plan then me, a random forum poster sneak posting on Boards when he should be working :pac:

    It does seem fairly rampant over there, but we'd need to know more about how long infected people were there for, what types of exposure they could have had, close personal contacts, just unlucky etc and what would be most informative would be knowing how many passengers arrive on from lombardia/veneto every day, probably 1500 odd? So 3 cases confirmed from perhaps 10-15k arrivals over the past fortnight?


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  • #7201
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Beasty wrote: »
    We're anticipating being overwhelmed with volunteers over the next 14 days or so......

    :pac:

    You look tired Beasty. Busy ;)?

    I can mod this thread if you need a break.


This discussion has been closed.
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