Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP

adrian92 · 03-03-2020 04:46AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Have you just found out about this virus right now or what? Get reading I suggest.

The wider effects of this virus are very different to car accidents and suicides.

It seems to me that there is some concern about a possible problem that many are exercised about.

I don't understand why there is so much concern about this and no concern, apparently, about the thousands who die each year in so many other ways

old_aussie · 03-03-2020 04:50AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Think I may have answered my own question 249 ICU beds nationally in 2018.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/critical-care/critical-care-capacity-planning/national-adult-critical-care-planning-memo.pdf

The HSE is going to be tested

BLIZZARD7 · 03-03-2020 04:58AM

adrian92 wrote: »

It seems to me that there is some concern about a possible problem that many are exercised about.

I don't understand why there is so much concern about this and no concern, apparently, about the thousands who die each year in so many other ways

Are you suggesting we shouldn't be concerned about Covid-19 at all? It's a little disturbing that you can't comprehend why people are concerned and are talking about this topic. Obviously other causes of death should have attention too (they already do) but this is a New health problem and not comparable to car crashes/suicides etc that you have referenced in previous posts.

To quote the WHO, "we are in unchartered waters" and this could mushroom into a much bigger problem for the world if we just ignore it and hope for the best. I really do hope you are just a troll tbh.

Bozo Skeleton · 03-03-2020 05:01AM

I don't know where to start.
I'll probably be grand if I end up catching this, despite my best efforts not to. I'm already accepting that I'm not going to visit my ma for a while (she's 72, robust and healthy.)
I work in a busy Dublin city centre bar. A lot of people are worried. A good few younger people don't seem to give a fúck.
The Irish attitude of fúck it, sure it'll be grand is not going to work for this.

fritzelly · 03-03-2020 05:04AM

China reports 7 of the reported cases today (of the 11 outside Hubei) were imported from Italy

Go figure

Thought all flights between Italy and China had been suspended over a month ago - Italians learning off the Chinese how to circumvent travel restrictions...

Cue this is actually all Italy's fault - damn those Italians and their fancy pasta and pizza infected with all kinds of bugs - just bought a meat feast pizza in Lidl tonight as well

If it all blows up again in China guess whose fault its gonna be...

Quantum Erasure · 03-03-2020 05:11AM

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

The Irish attitude of fúck it, sure it'll be grand is not going to work for this.

as a lad i know once said:

this "fuckit, it'll do" won't fuckin' do

03-03-2020 05:38AM

Washington State: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234670371640467457
Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/
huge statistical width there but still
80, at the lowest possible, is enough to be around undetected and go exponential fast

vladmydad · 03-03-2020 05:38AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm not religous, but nevertheless find it unbelievable that this awful human calls himself a Christian. Shame on him.

What’s awful about him specifically ?

kalkat2002 · 03-03-2020 05:48AM

This is gonna be a stress test for the hse system on the coming weeks...and is a pity all we already know hse will fail it...

Cartel Mike · 03-03-2020 06:25AM

I cant figure out wheather the Italian Goverment and district health departments there were lazy and negligent to be begin with or the people living in Northern italy just had a pretty carefree relaxed 'ciao' attitue to it all but we can"t copy that attitude here.
To hell with mass, football, rugby , Chetleham , st patricks day, and greedy tavel agents (who will of course will say 'sure theres nothing to worry about'). That seems to be what made Italy the new epicentre of this virus. I think all businesses and people alike have to be prepared to take a hit here to stop this escalating, maybe even 'force majeure' if you will.
Take a hit on the holiday or whatever you've already paid for ,stay in as much as you can and ask/beg for as much soap/hand clenser as you can at work or as much as your job will permit. Guy in my local shop was wearing thin gloves today when i went in ... i imagine if your a hairdresser or work in a bar that this would be is harder to do!!

We are well warned now ..any massive spread of coronav on this small island will be a consequence of our own stupidity/greed/stuborness selfishness. Italy is an example of what not to do. Sure we will need alot of luck but we can help make our own luck too. Be smart and no-one will even need to panic.

Nijmegen · 03-03-2020 06:40AM

Irish people are still arguing over whether or not it’s serious and discussing whether or not they’ll travel / sure why not I’m not losing a few quid on social media. Ignoring the massive steps being taken by governments around the world to contain the spread - the Aussies are now actively talking about locking people up forcibly. But Paddy is like, “sure the flu....”

When it goes in a country, it goes fast.

theballz · 03-03-2020 06:49AM

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

I don't know where to start.
I'll probably be grand if I end up catching this, despite my best efforts not to. I'm already accepting that I'm not going to visit my ma for a while (she's 72, robust and healthy.)
I work in a busy Dublin city centre bar. A lot of people are worried. A good few younger people don't seem to give a fúck.
The Irish attitude of fúck it, sure it'll be grand is not going to work for this.

People also need to relax about this.

Right now, we can only go by the information we are being given and take the necessary precautions. We have one case in Ireland, life cannot and will not stop on that basis.

“A few young people” are living there life’s until being told to do differently.

Take a breather mate, go see your mother. Wash your hands and give her a hug. This isn’t the apocalypse.

pc7 · 03-03-2020 06:53AM

Strong words being used that ‘might’ just be a wake up for Europe to really pay heed to things https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1234672441508548609?s=21

Gynoid · 03-03-2020 07:22AM

The panic is cooling.
My evidence - a) this thread is number 6 in my forums display list, not 1 or 2 as it has been for ages, and b) it has been 30 minutes since a post!

Straffan1979 · 03-03-2020 07:29AM

let’s start another thread highlighting your chance of dying today from influenza ...Let’s remind ourselves everyday on social media what’s your chance of dying from x,y,z- not good for the mental health..... because a conservative estimate from the US centre for disease control is that + 30,000 people have died from flu during winter 2019/2020.

The death rate of 2% from this virus is bolloxology as the obvious unknown is the number of people actually infected or showing no symptoms.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/when-disaster-strikes-inside-disaster-psychology/202003/psychology-viral-pandemic-what-we-need%3famp

There is an excellent article here on the psychology of this type of thing- if anyone needs grounding.

I was in a hardware shop in Naas yesterday and people were falling over themselves to buy industrial dust masks and any type of handcleaner they could carry- despite medical experts advice that a mask won’t do anything for you except perhaps ease the rampant anxiety that has taken control of your brain ...extraordinary times!

03-03-2020 07:36AM

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Possible vaccine in 90 days.

otnomart · 03-03-2020 07:38AM

"Genomic evidence suggests that #COVID19 has been circulating in the US since Jan 15, but undetected due to lack of testing".
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

Based on this, closing borders/blocking flights is pointless.
While quarantine of clusters (like China and Italy have been doing) could be effective.

Sundy · 03-03-2020 07:42AM

Straffan1979 wrote: »

let’s start another thread highlighting your chance of dying today from influenza ...Let’s remind ourselves everyday on social media what’s your chance of dying from x,y,z- not good for the mental health..... because a conservative estimate from the US centre for disease control is that + 30,000 people have died from flu during winter 2019/2020.

The death rate of 2% from this virus is bolloxology as the obvious unknown is the number of people actually infected or showing no symptoms.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/when-disaster-strikes-inside-disaster-psychology/202003/psychology-viral-pandemic-what-we-need%3famp

There is an excellent article here on the psychology of this type of thing- if anyone needs grounding.

I was in a hardware shop in Naas yesterday and people were falling over themselves to buy industrial dust masks and any type of handcleaner they could carry- despite medical experts advice that a mask won’t do anything for you except perhaps ease the rampant anxiety that has taken control of your brain ...extraordinary times!

The reason we have to work so hard to contain it is it has the potential to be much worse than ordinary influenza. The mortality rate might have been mis-reported, or we might be getting it wrong based on incomplete information, or it might mutate into something in the hot range of virulence vs. mortality and start to threaten widespread death.

That's why the WHO [and governments, and markets] takes these things so seriously. In the best case, it's just another virus in the mix. Potentially, every one of these outbreaks is catastrophic. When they turn out not to be, no one other than health professionals and insurance actuaries can understand what the fuss was about.

The need to respond is what causes upheaval and economic damage, but the risk of not responding is greater, and that's been worked out by people with awesome spreadsheets.

Tootsie_1 · 03-03-2020 07:47AM

Question , how much use will a vaccine be if it is mutating ??

otnomart · 03-03-2020 07:56AM

This study is from 2012: The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8

134_2012_2627_Fig1_HTML.gif?as=webp

kalkat2002 · 03-03-2020 07:57AM

Cartel Mike wrote: »

I cant figure out wheather the Italian Goverment and district health departments there were lazy and negligent to be begin with or the people living in Northern italy just had a pretty carefree relaxed 'ciao' attitue to it all but we can"t copy that attitude here.
To hell with mass, football, rugby , Chetleham , st patricks day, and greedy tavel agents (who will of course will say 'sure theres nothing to worry about'). That seems to be what made Italy the new epicentre of this virus. I think all businesses and people alike have to be prepared to take a hit here to stop this escalating, maybe even 'force majeure' if you will.
Take a hit on the holiday or whatever you've already paid for ,stay in as much as you can and ask/beg for as much soap/hand clenser as you can at work or as much as your job will permit. Guy in my local shop was wearing thin gloves today when i went in ... i imagine if your a hairdresser or work in a bar that this would be is harder to do!!

We are well warned now ..any massive spread of coronav on this small island will be a consequence of our own stupidity/greed/stuborness selfishness. Italy is an example of what not to do. Sure we will need alot of luck but we can help make our own luck too. Be smart and no-one will even need to panic.

Is time ago spreaded here btw...
Italia job would be amazing in few weeks time compared to ireland hse one...

Nijmegen · 03-03-2020 08:03AM

Straffan1979 wrote: »

let’s start another thread highlighting your chance of dying today from influenza ...Let’s remind ourselves everyday on social media what’s your chance of dying from x,y,z- not good for the mental health..... because a conservative estimate from the US centre for disease control is that + 30,000 people have died from flu during winter 2019/2020.

The death rate of 2% from this virus is bolloxology as the obvious unknown is the number of people actually infected or showing no symptoms.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/when-disaster-strikes-inside-disaster-psychology/202003/psychology-viral-pandemic-what-we-need%3famp

There is an excellent article here on the psychology of this type of thing- if anyone needs grounding.

I was in a hardware shop in Naas yesterday and people were falling over themselves to buy industrial dust masks and any type of handcleaner they could carry- despite medical experts advice that a mask won’t do anything for you except perhaps ease the rampant anxiety that has taken control of your brain ...extraordinary times!

So why do you reckon if it’s not all that serious that perfectly sane, reasonable governments the world over are tackling this like a war?

olestoepoke · 03-03-2020 08:05AM

Tootsie_1 wrote: »

Question , how much use will a vaccine be if it is mutating ??

who said it was mutating?

Graces7 · 03-03-2020 08:10AM

Naggdefy wrote: »

Anyone wants to watch a bit of scary fiction on a pandemic you can't beat Survivors, BBC 1975. Long series but good.

https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE

It is far from scary as it is so accurate. Watched it years ago. Well worth watching for the realism

Straffan1979 · 03-03-2020 08:12AM

Nijmegen wrote: »

So why do you reckon if it’s not all that serious that perfectly sane, reasonable governments the world over are tackling this like a war?

I don’t say don’t tackle it like a war- just educate yourself and stick to the facts.

The reporting of this virus is the same as the reporting of the ‘ lungs of the world are burning’ we had last Monday morning.... ‘ Oh what’s your chance of dying today’ on the Guardian front page ... give me a break.

This is the era of ‘post truth’.... keep the people afraid.

The worldwide mass anxiety social media is heaping on people is actually an impediment to dealing with this correctly due to the impact on mental health that’s making people act irrationally.

893bet · 03-03-2020 08:16AM

Nijmegen wrote: »

Irish people are still arguing over whether or not it’s serious and discussing whether or not they’ll travel / sure why not I’m not losing a few quid on social media. Ignoring the massive steps being taken by governments around the world to contain the spread - the Aussies are now actively talking about locking people up forcibly. But Paddy is like, “sure the flu....”

When it goes in a country, it goes fast.

Indeed. No personal responsibility Been taken by many.

Nijmegen · 03-03-2020 08:17AM

Straffan1979 wrote: »

I don’t say don’t tackle it like a war- just educate yourself and stick to the facts.

The reporting of this virus is the same as the reporting of the ‘ lungs of the world are burning’ we had last Monday morning.... ‘ Oh what’s your chance of dying today’ on the Guardian front page ... give me a break.

This is the era of ‘post truth’.... keep the people afraid.

The worldwide mass anxiety social media is heaping on people is actually an impediment to dealing with this correctly due to the impact on mental health that’s making people act irrationally.

The media hyping it up is one thing. But if we look objectively at the steps being taken by fair minded, reasonable governments who, if anything, are usually accused of doing too little for the public good where a few quid is concerned... you cannot say this is a normal event and nothing to be worried about. I think there’s a certain attitude that’s veering towards being blasé among people I am seeing (not you per se, just folks I know generally) that is simply not fitting with the extraordinary facts we see not just about the virus but the steps governments are taking.

I know the mob on social media can be influenced by red top headlines, but that doesn’t usually extend to the likes of the attorney general of Australia, the chief medical officer of the UK, etc etc.

Nijmegen · 03-03-2020 08:22AM

https://www.thejournal.ie/euro-2020-games-dublin-shane-ross-5029444-Mar2020/

Article here on the Euro 2020 games and also referencing the rugby. Amazes me how many times the few quid is mentioned. What’s the impact to Irish tourism of a wide outbreak and getting like Rome, with its 90% hotel cancellation rates and flights from the US being curtailed?

He said it is a “very important” tourism event, worth over €106 million.

“It’s huge,” said Ross.

...

“I think that the right decision was made. I think the IRFU felt they deserved more consultation about it and perhaps they should have been consulted more closely. It was a very difficult decision for them to make and they are losing €5 million.”

Straffan1979 · 03-03-2020 08:22AM

Nijmegen wrote: »

The media hyping it up is one thing. But if we look objectively at the steps being taken by fair minded, reasonable governments who, if anything, are usually accused of doing too little for the public good where a few quid is concerned... you cannot say this is a normal event and nothing to be worried about. I think there’s a certain attitude that’s veering towards being blasé among people I am seeing (not you per se, just folks I know generally) that is simply not fitting with the extraordinary facts we see not just about the virus but the steps governments are taking.

I know the mob on social media can be influenced by red top headlines, but that doesn’t usually extend to the likes of the attorney general of Australia, the chief medical officer of the UK, etc etc.

This has likely been in America for 6 + weeks now is my understanding of this and in reality Europe too.

What you’re seeing now is an acceptance you can’t stop this.

The fear comes from the unknown obviously and with that wild speculation.

Spanish flu 1918 crossed the US in 4 days they estimated back then- well before mass air travel.

This is already here... we’ll contract it and we’ll recover- you might die but you might die from influenza you catch tomorrow too.

coastwatch · 03-03-2020 08:22AM

olestoepoke wrote: »

who said it was mutating?

The Italian virus strain is different to the Wuhan strain,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected

Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP